I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio.
What makes you so smart, PokestarFan?
What size portfolio are you presuming?
What other details are you presuming about the investor?
What do you mean by diversification? What kinds of asset areas besides "crypto"? and really fuck crypto .. why did you bring up "crypto" we are talking about bitcoin in this thread.. .when you use the term "crypto" are you talking about bitcoin or something else.. ?
Can you give a hypothetical of a portfolio and how it might be sufficiently diversified based on various individual factors?
Are you presuming an old investor or a young investor? Does that make a difference from your ways of criticizing lack of diversification?
I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
I hope you are right. I have not sold any BTC during this run up or decline but I did sell a bunch a long time ago at 4k to start a small business. Business worked out fine and creates a nice independent income stream for me but I sure wish I started it with debt and not BTC.
I would love for a long multi year period with BTC at 10k so I could slowly buy back the BTC I sold.
Why do you have a mental block that you need to buy back in at prices close to the prices that you sold?
Hardly makes sense when BTC is quite likely NOT to go back to those price levels ever again..
Sure there might be some crash that takes bitcoin further down from where we are at.. but we are already in rare territory with BTC prices below the 200-week moving average for 5 days already and also 20% below the 200-week moving average..
Sure there are no guarantees but expecting sub $10k and even sustainable sub $10k seems to like pie in the sky;.
There are all kinds of ways to establish a reasonable stake in BTC.. without having to get into some kind of fantasy theories/expectations about entry price points that may well lock you out from ever buying.
I don't invest in altcoins but Bitcoin was about 85% of my net worth at its 65k peak. That percentage is obviously a lot less now of course but other then the my horrible sale timing at 4k years ago I have pretty much ignored this recent market action. I guess it depends on ones timeline and confidence. I am confident in bitcoins long term prospects. The short term market changes are thus only distracting noise.
I agree with the point that it is difficult to enter when there is a lot of uncertainty... but that might just justify how much to put in at various price points rather than not putting anything in and waiting to only employ lump sum investing..
In other words, dollar cost averaging ( DCA i)s the most powerful BTC accumulation strategy and it can be supplemented with buying on dips and lump sum investing.
One thing that helps me keep a clear head is to assign a purpose to the BTC I own instead of looking at it as a total sum. The BTC I have right now is all earmarked for stuff either as future gifts for my children (I have a few kids), for my wife as a life insurance in case something happens to me (saves money on life insurance), or earmarked for grandchildren who don't exist yet using a guestimate on how many of them may eventually exist someday.
That causes long term holding motivations, then.
I actually don't have any earmarked for my savings or retirement yet. Sold those back at 4k for the business. I need to eventually fix that and buy some BTC for me. I was not planning on doing that this year as was going to expand the business but if BTC drops to 10k I will put the expansion plans on hold and start buying BTC.
Of course you can do both.. You can just set up a small amount each week, whether that is $10 or $100 or some other amount, and then otherwise just go about focusing on your business matters.
I would guess that we are going lower from here. However, if we do the storm shall eventually pass. The draining of fiat liquidity by the central banks cannot be sustained forever.
Sounds like you have a decent grasp on some of bitcoin's central investment rationales... it is just a matter of setting up some kind of tailored plan, and of course, you can be way less aggressive, and then just be ready to throw more at bitcoin if some more clear bottom signal is in.. but sometimes the bottom signal is not very clear, either.. so sometimes if you wait too long, then you are just buying at higher prices.. so damned if you do and damned if you don't to some degree which gets back to the justification that you have to figure out a balancing approach that is comfortable for yourself based on an assessment of all of your personal circumstances which should include cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments....
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