I would expect 103k or more by 2033 if not at those numbers it would likely mean BTC is dead for reasons unknown today.
Oh well... if it's only that, I really hope (and expect) we won't have to wait till 2033 for 103k.
I am not JJG I don't write in walls of text.
You can say that, again.
and again..
and again.
For whatever that's worth.
So I did not flesh out the 1.2 as and average for the next 10 years.
BTW 6.00 to 24,000.00
2012 to 2023 is way bigger than 1.2 yearly return.
in fact it is a 2.1 return rounded and averaged
2012 = 6.00000000000 >>>>>>> 2012 = 6.00000000000
2013 = 7.20000000000 >>>>>>> 2013 = 12.60000000000
2014 = 8.64000000000 >>>>>>> 2014 = 26.46000000000
2015 = 10.36800000000 >>>>>>> 2015 = 55.56600000000
2016 = 12.44160000000 >>>>>>> 2016 = 116.68860000000
2017 = 14.92992000000 >>>>>>> 2017 = 245.04606000000
2018 = 17.91590400000 >>>>>>> 2018 = 514.59672600000
2019 = 21.49908480000 >>>>>>> 2019 = 1080.65312460000
2020 = 25.79890176000 >>>>>>> 2020 = 2269.37156166000
2021 = 30.95868211200 >>>>>>> 2021 = 4765.68027948600
2022 = 37.15041853440 >>>>>>> 2022 = 10007.92858692060
2023 = 44.58050224128 >>>>>>> 2023 = 21016.65003253326
Yes.. and part of the point remains, it depends upon where you start your measurement when you are wanting to describe straight line analysis (not that I don't do it myself) and also some level of questioning the extent to which some sloping off might not be necessary.. without going overboard in terms of sloping off too much too soon or even starting to measure from the wrong (or misleading/ non-representative) points if you might pick up such a straight-line analysis somewhere in the middle (or at a new point).
so to think we can average 1.2 for 10 years til 2033 is not really super bullish but not bearish.
It's bearish in terms of describing it as a "base case" or likely scenario, but it is not bearish in terms of maintaining your own personal conservative financial/psychological preparations... or ways in which you might want to help to prepare yourself financially/psychologically in a way in order that you do not get ur lil selfie reckt..
Even though, it is quite likely that you had reckt yourself financially (and perhaps psychologically too) in your own personal historical failure/refusal to appreciate and prepare that BTC had decently good odds to outperform other asset classes - so in that regard, you would not have had even needed a whole lot of allocation to bitcoin in order to enjoy (profit) from the upside potential (and also what did end up happening in bitcoin in reality over the past 12 years or so)...
It seems quite likely that there are similar dynamics within bitcoin (and its investment thesis) in current times, and surely even if the upside potential for bitcoin is likely smaller, the overall nature and characteristics of an ongoing asymmetric bet continues to exist in bitcoin which means that there is likely going to be a lot of likelihood for ongoing profits from being in bitcoin in the coming years - including the next decade or two, even if the slope of the s-curve may well end up playing out less steep than it had played out in the past 10 years.... and in fact, you are likely correct that it is nearly impossible for bitcoin to come even close to having the same levels of upside performance in terms of percentages based on the use of higher base starting points if we start from today or even if we start from our current low point of this cycle or even if we were to project some other low point (such as sub $10k - that still seems to remain quite unlikely to happen in this particular cycle.... but never say never).
We can say 1.2 yearly average is easy peasy
and 2.1 yearly average is too good
So do we do 1.3 per year ?
or 1.4 per year
both would be great.
1.3 till 2033 = 234,359
1.4 till 2033 = 491,732
I can see either one as possible or low ball of 1.2
so 1.4 gives us 10.3 trillion cap in 2033
and 1.3 gives us 4.9 trillion cap in 2033
and 1.2 gives us 2.1 trillion cap in 2033
I can see any of those 3 cases happening over next 10 years.
And, for whatever reason, it could end up playing lower than your lowest estimate, too... so it is not really getting us very far if we are just asserting that there are a variety of scenarios that could play out in which bitcoin's price ends up fitting into one of those scenarios down the road..
So where would there be any disagreement, if any? How to prepare personally? Of course, we have gone over these kinds of matters, several times... and then one of the questions that come up in this thread is how much bitcoin might any of us need and how might we play it? Do we sell on the way up (0r at other points?) and if we do sell at what points do we sell, and how much?
How much do we accumulate? Have we accumulated enough? It's not necessary to answer these questions in this thread, even though on a personal level each of us likely should have answers regarding how we are preparing, and we know that the vast majority of the world is not really prepared in terms of being off of zero.. and there might be some guys (and gal) in this thread who are also question their own preparations in regards to the next 10 years or so.. and if they have thought through various BTC price dynamics.. including that in practice, bitcoin does not look like a straight line even if we are likely going to be able to go back (once history has past) and make various straightlines and to be able to more clearly see at what points bitcoin had been in conformity and in line with such straight line points on such chart... but is that framework helpful right now, except for anticipating that the likely direction of the trajectory is UP.. but inevitable, is it? Is straight-line forward projection helpful, personally (financially or psychologically)?
the models of stock to flow, four-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalf principles is not straightline.. but there are some straightline ways of thinking about it.. including the rainbow chart has some straightline ways of framing the matter, too.
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