Was messing around with some numbers and future speculation on price and have come to a few questions.
My main goal is accumulation until 2028. I’m speculating two things will happen during this time frame. Firstly my avg price per coin is going to hit and go up. Should you increase your dca # at this point?
For sure you can attempt to project ahead while attempting to include base case scenarios for as many of the factors that you can attempt to know, and surely you likely even know that there are some of the variables that are "more knowable" and more under your control than others, so everything is not equal but nothing is completely knowable or completely under your control.
The most solid building on what you do should be attempted to be around the things that you believe are the most knowable, which would be your own financial and psychological circumstances, and for sure that sounds so trite and so basic and seems as if it does not have any value, yet what I am trying to say in order to attempt to answer your question is that the most base aspects in terms of budgeting your DCA is knowing how much cashflow you believe that you are going to have available, and since you seem to already be relatively bullish on BTC, then you should attempt to structure your DCA in such a way that you are as aggressive/assertive as you can be during the earlier time frames (especially if you understand that there are sufficient dips in price)... and I am not sure if I am making sense, but there is some value in your having some kind of a timeline in which you anticipate that you are going to be continuing to accumulate BTC for the next 5 years or so, but what happens after that? Do you go into maintenance stage or do you go into liquidation stage? My presumption is that any new bitcoin that is accumulated will still have a 4-10 year (or more) investment timeline prior to going into liquidation stage, so any bitcoin that you put in now would have a 4-10 year or more timeline which would potentially come due to be liquidated some or all in 2027-2030 or later, and so any BTC that you still might be accumulating in 2028 would have a due to liquidate timeline of 2032-2038 or later.
So your DCA quantities would continue to go up with your cashflow that is available as you account that maybe your income might go up during that timeframe until 2028 (if you are a working person rather that someone who is already living off of passive cashflows), you also realize that it is likely that cost of living is likely going to continue to go up during that timeframe until 2028, so those are somewhat knowns, and generally speaking if the BTC price is going up and going down during that timeframe until 2028, you realize that your own cost per BTC is likely going up, but the size of your stash is going up too. You can set up charts (such as in Excel spreadsheet) in which you lay out the various assets that you currently own and that you anticipate to own in order to figure out various scenarios in which the rates in which the various assets are likely to change in value during the timeframe until 2028 and thereafter and to attempt to figure out how your own accumulation (and presumably mostly focus on bitcoin) might be affected based on various ways that the price per coin might change and how the value of your stash is going up at the same time that your cost per coin is going up and you can make side by side comparisons of a variety of more likely scenarios and even trajectory out worse case scenarios.. and you likely would see that some of the variables are more solidly known than others, so the variables that are less known might be the ones in which you might trajectory out better case scenarios, medium case scenarios and worse case scenarios in order to compare them side by side and to try to figure out if there might be some differences in terms of whether you attempt to allocate more aggressively in the beginning or if it matters as much how you allocate later.n I would bet that you will find that it is best to figure out how to allocate now, and some of the ways that your trajectory actually plays out will inform you that it was best to have been sufficiently aggressive and assertive early on (while not getting overly aggressive in such a way that you reck yourself)... and so as the future plays out and becomes the present, your already existing way of investing will likely be more informative to how you continue to invest in the future or if there is still any kind of need to continue to stay aggressive/assertive along the way or whether you might start to feel that your position is starting to inform you that there is less needs to be aggressive/assertive and you can start to relax more and start to gradually merge yourself into more of a maintenance position and perhaps even more into a liquidation stage... that still might never be divorced from periods of accumulation but probably feelings of less urgency whether you accumulate or not and whether you choose to liquidate a little or not even though everyone else might seem to be accumulating, you can do whataver you like.. because you had already done most of your accumulation and you have graduated into either in maintenance stage or into a liquidation stage.
Secondly confident of a new ath and maybe another by 2028, in the Ath years do you reduce dca # , knowing a future dip is approaching?
I think that you could do something like that.. especially if you have accumulated quite a bit of BTC already at lower prices and if your portfolio is largely in profits.. so you can also trajectory out how much you believe that you need to get to entry-level fuck you status, and so that could also inform how much you allocate to steady DCA and how much you might hold back for buying on dips.
You could use
something like my entry-level fuck you status chart (or some other variation that you consider to be more practical/reasonable/realistic) to attempt to help you to figure out how much BTC that you believe that you might need, and let's say that you believe that you need to have around 10 BTC by 2028, but so far you have ONLY gotten up to 8 BTC. You should be able to figure out whether it is realistic that you might be able to increase your BTC stash by more than 20% in 5 years or not based on how much you have already been able to accumulate and allocate into BTC.. .. but part of the punchline of the entry-level fuck you status chart tends to show that the amount of BTC that you need in order to get to entry-level fuck you status is going to continue to go down with the passage of time.. it is not guaranteed, but many of us longer term bitcoiners believe that such a trajectory of the quantity of BTC needed to reach entry-level fuck you status is reasonable that it will be going down with the passage of time, and so therefore, you likely do not need to get more BTC, but you might just need to make sure that you retain what you already have and/or that a reasonable and prudent ongoing accumulation of BTC is still also likely to get you to your entry-level fuck you status goals or whatever might be your accumulation goals... and so maybe it does not matter so much in some cases in which BTC accumulation has already been accomplished fairly well and aggressively, while at the same time, I understand that it could be possible that so far you have ONLY accumulated 0.5 BTC, and you want to get up to more than 1 BTC by 2028 (which is a 100% increase in the quantity of your current BTC stash), and you are not sure if the entry-level fuck you status chart is accurate because the fuck you status chart might be overly optimistic, so it may well be the case that you are going to need to get up to 2 BTC or more rather than the 1 BTC in order to have a sufficient cushion to account for such possible overly optimistic aspect that the chart seems to project in order to be at a comfort level of BTC accumulation by 2028/2029... so yeah, these kinds of charts can be rough estimates that do not really tell you how to budget your own cashflows to maximize your abilities to get to the stash levels that you need to (want to) get, exactly...
Yet, it seems to me that if you consider yourself likely to continue to be in BTC accumulation until 2028, then sure you can try to figure out if your maximum budget is $100 per week allocated to BTC accumulation, and then maybe a couple of times a year, you are likely to get another $2k or so, but you do not need to plug all of your allocated budget into buying BTC right away, you can allocate some of it towards buying on dips and just wait and see.. but if you are worried that the BTC price is going to continue to just keep shooting up, then you buy right away.. if you believe that there might be a bit of a correction then you might either lower the amount that you buy right away and then just continue to let that $100 per week and those various bonus cashflows to just continue to build up until some variation of the dip that you anticipate comes.. while realizing that it might or might not dip, but that is the chance that you take if you fail to buy BTC right away and wait for dips that might not end up happening.
You are not talking about the first time that some of us might have kept too much dry powder on the side and then regretted not employing it earlier.. Does anyone know exactly? and the longer that you are paying attention to the BTC price dynamics, the more likely that you should be able to get roughly in the right direction, but even folks watching the BTC price full time for the last 10 years or so do not necessarily get matters any more correct than someone with less experience in watching BTC price dynamics.
Thirdly after I finish accumulating I will start to spend, when it comes to taxes can I pick my cost basis ie would make sense to pick highest cost price in a descending order to insulate for cgt?
There are rules about how you are supposed to account, so I am not very thrilled about talking about the various ways to make those accountings.. but there can be some flexibility even if the standard might be first in first out.. rather than your suggestion of selective choosing.. but sometimes there could be ways to keep some funds separated or in a certain account, then you would just go first in first out within that account, but just selecting the highest cost price for your basis would likely raise red flags with tax auditors.. yet if the total amount cashed out for the year is relatively small, and it does not appear that you are NOT reporting, then the tax officials might not even pay attention to how you are doing it.. but if later down the road some red flags are raised, then they might go back and look at how you accounted in earlier years, and it might seem to not make sense in terms of acceptable accounting frameworks that they have as their standards and within the complicated guidelines that are not really that easy to follow, and part of the reason that people consult with accountants and part of the reason that many of us hesitate to get too much into the weeds regarding the various ways that we might do our own accounting/reporting - even though some guys do discuss some of these ideas from time to time.. I don't get that excited to discuss them.. except in general ways and maybe to proclaim, from time to time that I find them crazy and confusing...
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