Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714706259]

1714706259

[1714706259]

1714706259

[1714706259]

1714706259

[Gachapin]

again a good article by Lopp



How Many Bitcoin Confirmations is Enough?
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nutildah]

Explanation

Buddy buddy. What we tell you about this nonsense. You puttin up bum numbers and also 'ol Phil here says you been givin him a hard time.

What gives?



Would be a real shame if, you know, we had to give you a real good motivatin that you might not recover from.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Lainta]

 

Take 👏

your 👏

Bitcoin 👏

off 👏

exchanges 👏

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1632164803560214528?t=Kr_abS8schQF9J78A5znUA&s=19

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

again a good article by Lopp



How Many Bitcoin Confirmations is Enough?
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

So if a country with large resources wants to fuck up bitcoin they need only have 2 large hydoplants and 52% of the hash.

Thus CHINA could do it for about 6 billion

let check the math.

we are at 330 eh or  330,000ph or 330,000,000th

3,300,000 s19 pros = the network.

say 1000 for 1 or

3,300,000,000 cash to match the networks hash

let China take over bitmain build the units and they would make some extra ones so 4 billion means

4.0 all china 3.3 rest of us

you need power
 4 units = 13.2kwatts
40 units = 132kwatts
400 units = 1320kwatts
4000 units = 13200kwatts
40000 units = 132000kwatts
400000 units = 1320000 kwatts
4000000 units= 13200000kwatts or 13200megawatts this dam in china does 20,000 megawatts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations



so at the moment China could destroy btc for under 6 billion dollars if they choose to do so.

This is a roadblock to adaptation worldwide btc currency

[Gachapin]

again a good article by Lopp



How Many Bitcoin Confirmations is Enough?
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

So if a country with large resources wants to fuck up bitcoin they need only have 2 large hydoplants and 52% of the hash.

Thus CHINA could do it for about 6 billion

let check the math.

we are at 330 eh or  330,000ph or 330,000,000th

3,300,000 s19 pros = the network.

say 1000 for 1 or

3,300,000,000 cash to match the networks hash

let China take over bitmain build the units and they would make some extra ones so 4 billion means

4.0 all china 3.3 rest of us

you need power
 4 units = 13.2kwatts
40 units = 132kwatts
400 units = 1320kwatts
4000 units = 13200kwatts
40000 units = 132000kwatts
400000 units = 1320000 kwatts
4000000 units= 13200000kwatts or 13200megawatts this dam in china does 20,000 megawatts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations



so at the moment China could destroy btc for under 6 billion dollars if they choose to do so.

This is a roadblock to adaptation worldwide btc currency

I posted it before but there lies truth in what Antonopoulos says:


Andreas Antonopoulos - 51% Bitcoin Attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

again a good article by Lopp



How Many Bitcoin Confirmations is Enough?
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

So if a country with large resources wants to fuck up bitcoin they need only have 2 large hydoplants and 52% of the hash.

Thus CHINA could do it for about 6 billion

let check the math.

we are at 330 eh or  330,000ph or 330,000,000th

3,300,000 s19 pros = the network.

say 1000 for 1 or

3,300,000,000 cash to match the networks hash

let China take over bitmain build the units and they would make some extra ones so 4 billion means

4.0 all china 3.3 rest of us

you need power
 4 units = 13.2kwatts
40 units = 132kwatts
400 units = 1320kwatts
4000 units = 13200kwatts
40000 units = 132000kwatts
400000 units = 1320000 kwatts
4000000 units= 13200000kwatts or 13200megawatts this dam in china does 20,000 megawatts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations



so at the moment China could destroy btc for under 6 billion dollars if they choose to do so.

This is a roadblock to adaptation worldwide btc currency

I posted it before but there lies truth in what Antonopoulos says:


Andreas Antonopoulos - 51% Bitcoin Attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM

Do you think he is correct cause my math above is accurate.

 China would be the player to cause the attack as they build most of the gear.

No need to do this today or tomorrow but if BTC did get big say 500k a coin it could be tempting.

It kind of calls for a gear race or at least a gear decentralization of plants.

USA is to open a chip plant in NY

https://www.computerworld.com/article/3675354/micron-to-build-largest-chip-factory-in-us-history.html

[Gachapin]

again a good article by Lopp



How Many Bitcoin Confirmations is Enough?
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

So if a country with large resources wants to fuck up bitcoin they need only have 2 large hydoplants and 52% of the hash.

Thus CHINA could do it for about 6 billion

let check the math.

we are at 330 eh or  330,000ph or 330,000,000th

3,300,000 s19 pros = the network.

say 1000 for 1 or

3,300,000,000 cash to match the networks hash

let China take over bitmain build the units and they would make some extra ones so 4 billion means

4.0 all china 3.3 rest of us

you need power
 4 units = 13.2kwatts
40 units = 132kwatts
400 units = 1320kwatts
4000 units = 13200kwatts
40000 units = 132000kwatts
400000 units = 1320000 kwatts
4000000 units= 13200000kwatts or 13200megawatts this dam in china does 20,000 megawatts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations



so at the moment China could destroy btc for under 6 billion dollars if they choose to do so.

This is a roadblock to adaptation worldwide btc currency

I posted it before but there lies truth in what Antonopoulos says:


Andreas Antonopoulos - 51% Bitcoin Attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM

Do you think he is correct cause my math above is accurate.

 China would be the player to cause the attack as they build most of the gear.

No need to do this today or tomorrow but if BTC did get big say 500k a coin it could be tempting.

It kind of calls for a gear race or at least a gear decentralization of plants.

USA is to open a chip plant in NY

https://www.computerworld.com/article/3675354/micron-to-build-largest-chip-factory-in-us-history.html

I believe your math is roundabout correct.  But that doesn't invalidate what Antonopoulos says.

If such an attack happened, nobody would value the fork of the attackers, after they are discovered.


I don't even know if they could pull off the same attack several times after being caught.  

The Bitcoin network has a community behind it sharing the same values and that's (an intentional) part of its strength.

I'm sure our community would get together and quickly secure the network by any necessary means ...even if that meant a kind of temporary centralization or something.

But I'm just poking around in the dark.  There are some very smart people who already figured out the possibilities and also the most 'successful' objectives of an attacker as well as the necessary counter measures.


I'm sure many WOers have a shitload of knowledge and educating links to share on that rather ancient topic.



 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

but what is killing the quality of posting is the 22-25 k sold we are stuck in.

Doesn't seem that bad to me, especially if we compare to where we were between about
September 2022 and even up until mid-January 2023.. Also if we compare it to where we were at for the vast majority of BTC history prior to December 2020, doesn't seem bad relative to those prices either.. so 2.25 years later? or might I suggest more than 2.25 years earlier.. and surely we are currently "in the money" and decently so.. and that is not even a very long time horizon in terms of seeing such decently good profits, either.. relatively speaking.

And, I am not even suggesting to take profits in order to rest on such laurels for those of us who have been in this asset class for quite a few years longer than 2.25 years and had done the vast majority of our BTC accumulation prior to 2.25 years ago... So in that regard, those of us holding BTC that had mostly been obtained more than 2.25 years ago seem to be sitting quite pretty... and surely who the fuck should realistically be thinking that it would have had been inevitable to get richie on investing into something like BTC if they had ONLY been accumulating mostly 2.25 years or less.

Another angle would be for those who started accumulating BTC starting in about mid-2022 or so, those newbies would likely be in a decently good position too.. even though the DCABTC site is showing them to potentially be under water.. but still seems good to me (this is not financial advice, but surely my opinionenings) if they had a bit of persistencies in their BTC accumulation strategies (and perhaps even aggressiveness in their BTC accumulation practices).. at least it would seem so to me, even if perhaps they would have been underwater currently.. but still able to accumulate BTC at a better price than if they had started to accumulate January 2021 until present, for example..

But hey, I am not really the kind of person to be complaining about the mere fact that any investment like bitcoin might be under water in the short to medium term, especially given its seemingly ongoing upside potential.. and surely no guarantees to even get out from under water.. but surely there could be ways to continue to be persistent in terms of investing in bitcoin and have good chances to both get out from under water and also to be able to get into the black (and stay there) in the future.. again no guaratees in regards to what to do? what to do?   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

again a good article by Lopp



How Many Bitcoin Confirmations is Enough?
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/

So if a country with large resources wants to fuck up bitcoin they need only have 2 large hydoplants and 52% of the hash.

Thus CHINA could do it for about 6 billion

let check the math.

we are at 330 eh or  330,000ph or 330,000,000th

3,300,000 s19 pros = the network.

say 1000 for 1 or

3,300,000,000 cash to match the networks hash

let China take over bitmain build the units and they would make some extra ones so 4 billion means

4.0 all china 3.3 rest of us

you need power
 4 units = 13.2kwatts
40 units = 132kwatts
400 units = 1320kwatts
4000 units = 13200kwatts
40000 units = 132000kwatts
400000 units = 1320000 kwatts
4000000 units= 13200000kwatts or 13200megawatts this dam in china does 20,000 megawatts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_hydroelectric_power_stations



so at the moment China could destroy btc for under 6 billion dollars if they choose to do so.

This is a roadblock to adaptation worldwide btc currency

I posted it before but there lies truth in what Antonopoulos says:


Andreas Antonopoulos - 51% Bitcoin Attack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncPyMUfNyVM

Do you think he is correct cause my math above is accurate.

 China would be the player to cause the attack as they build most of the gear.

No need to do this today or tomorrow but if BTC did get big say 500k a coin it could be tempting.

It kind of calls for a gear race or at least a gear decentralization of plants.

USA is to open a chip plant in NY

https://www.computerworld.com/article/3675354/micron-to-build-largest-chip-factory-in-us-history.html

I believe your math is roundabout correct.  But that doesn't invalidate what Antonopoulos says.

If such an attack happened, nobody would value the fork of the attackers, after they are discovered.


I don't even know if they could pull off the same attack several times after being caught.  

The Bitcoin network has a community behind it sharing the same values and that's (an intentional) part of its strength.

I'm sure our community would get together and quickly secure the network by any necessary means ...even if that meant a kind of temporary centralization or something.

But I'm just poking around in the dark.  There are some very smart people who already figured out the possibilities and also the most 'successful' objectives of an attacker as well as the necessary counter measures.


I'm sure many WOers have a shitload of knowledge and educating links to share on that rather ancient topic.



 

Right I get that. But as I said btc could go to 100-500k and do it quickly.

As I type the possibility that the gear is in place and ready to attack is not very high.

But
2017 19.9k
2021 69.1k
2025 200k why not and at this moment how much gear is in direct control of China 🇨🇳 Russia 🇷🇺 USA 🇺🇸

governments. We dont know.

Remember the hashrate attack done in 2021

a 50% drop in mining due to a Chinese mining ban.

How about right now Chinese government direct controls 20% of all mining gear.

They could slash the hashrate by 20% on day 1 of the 14 days.

In fact there is evidence this is being tested as I type.

I will post a link.

 

so is it more likely variance or testing of a reverse hashrate attack

DO NOT POST SESC LINKS

here it is due to the bold above.

Early numbers are whacked.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   778240  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   72.0918%  (65 / 90.16 expected, 25.16 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                            
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                            
Next Difficulty:   between 31256691304059 and 42046996715428
Next Difficulty Change:   between -27.4009% and -2.3386%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 8:27 PM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 11, 2023 at 4:43 AM  (in 13d 17h 13m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 16, 2023 at 7:32 AM  (in 18d 19h 2m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 8h 15m 8s and 19d 10h 4m 20s
Copy stats to clipboard

I know there is 'bad' luck and or variance.

But -28% is weird.

now look some more just 200 blocks later

Phill, it was too early to judge, we climbed up real fast

Latest Block:
778444  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
96.5416%  (269 / 278.64 expected, 9.64 behind)
Previous Difficulty:
39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:
43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:
between 41659082621125 and 42697802191261
Next Difficulty Change:
between -3.2396% and -0.8270%
Previous Retarget:
last Saturday at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
March 11, 2023 at 6:27 AM  (in 12d 4h 33m 30s)
Next Retarget (latest):
March 11, 2023 at 3:30 PM  (in 12d 13h 35m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 14d 2h 59m 51s and 14d 12h 2m 10s

20% was unreal to be honest, 3% is sustainable, maybe 5% at best, i do not see a drop more than that happening this epoch, i actually think we will get a small positive adjustment.

and almost back to normal

it appears to me a huge amount of hashrate is in the hands of 1 player and that this is an example of a possible reverse hashrate attack.


the math that would allow for the network to be at 72% at block 65 then up to 96% at block 269 is very high long shot.

the simple conclusion is someone can turn as much as 33% of the network on and off at will.

as little as maybe 20%.

So simple add to this capacity  most likely China because they build most of the gear.

Then do a reverse hashrate attack when ever you please.

How would you like btc to be 500k in 2029 and the networks drops 65% of its hash on day 1 of the diff adjustment.

BTW I have seen these very deep early drops during the first 100 blocks of a new 14 day period on more than 1 occasion.

[cygan]

[philipma1957]

Maybe or maybe in 2056 or 2072 a frozen coin rule is done.

Any account that has not made a withdrawal in 60 years must take some coin out or it is fed back into the reward system as lost currency.

if it is 2072 and btc is 1 million dollars with 1 million coins frozen from 2009 to 2012 I could see this happening.

But I would be 115 years old to be able to see it.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Right I get that. But as I said btc could go to 100-500k and do it quickly.

Price changes do no lopsiddedly (or disproportionately) benefit one side over the other... meaning that merely because the price goes up, it does not likely disproportionately benefit the attackers over the defenders (sure much of this is theory, so it would have to get put to play to really verify the extent to which the incentives might either hold up or crumble in unexpected ways, but you filly willy are not providing any evidence to really suggest that either factually or logically that automatically the attackers are going to be benefited merely because BTC prices go up or some other matter changes in bitcoin, and surely I will grant you that the more quickly that anything changes, the more likely that it is easier to attack, but we do not even have evidence that a 5 to 25x change in price from here, in a quick manner would be enough in order to create the level of instability that you are hypothesizing as if it were a likely scenario).

Remember the hashrate attack done in 2021

a 50% drop in mining due to a Chinese mining ban.

How about right now Chinese government direct controls 20% of all mining gear.

They could slash the hashrate by 20% on day 1 of the 14 days.

In fact there is evidence this is being tested as I type.

I will post a link.

Yeah.. and how did that 2021 situation go for China..

That would have been a pretty good opportunity to put a 51% attack test into practice.. but they did not do it (if they had been planning to do such?  I am not saying that I know, but it had seemed like it could have been possible that the Chinese were in a decently good place to make 51% attack in 2021, and it is going to be a wee bit harder after a couple of more years of network building and experience (seemingly largely from the mining angle of "network building")

How would you like btc to be 500k in 2029 and the networks drops 65% of its hash on day 1 of the diff adjustment.

BTW I have seen these very deep early drops during the first 100 blocks of a new 14 day period on more than 1 occasion.

Yes.. you have quite a bit of theoretical discussion regarding how an attack might play out.. and even regarding some potential (theoretical) set ups for an attack, and it seems to me to be a pretty expensive play.. and let's see if such a thing happens.. To me, such attacks to be carried out successfully and even sustainably in a way to keep network effects in such a way that allows an actual payoff for the attacker (sure they might want to merely kill bitcoin, but that would be expensive too) does not seem as likely as you seem to be making it out to be (maybe that's part of the reason that you have been historically failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately stack dee cornz?)

Maybe or maybe in 2056 or 2072 a frozen coin rule is done.

Any account that has not made a withdrawal in 60 years must take some coin out or it is fed back into the reward system as lost currency.

if it is 2072 and btc is 1 million dollars with 1 million coins frozen from 2009 to 2012 I could see this happening.

But I would be 115 years old to be able to see it.

Yes.. you have a lot of dumb fringe ideas, and I am not even suggesting that your ideas are very original.... but they surely are based on fantasy like scenarios that are in the ballpark of almost impossible to happen (if all actual relevant - and more likely - factors were to be taken into account).

Part of the reason that you are likely going to continue to have fun staying more poor than you otherwise "could have been."  

In udder wurds, no one can save you, if you are not willing to save ur lil selfie.


Pour one out 4 dee filly.

 


I am not even going to proclaim that you are retarded.

Not going to go there.. Not going to go there.

[AlcoHoDL]

Maybe or maybe in 2056 or 2072 a frozen coin rule is done.

Any account that has not made a withdrawal in 60 years must take some coin out or it is fed back into the reward system as lost currency.

if it is 2072 and btc is 1 million dollars with 1 million coins frozen from 2009 to 2012 I could see this happening.

But I would be 115 years old to be able to see it.

I don't think you'll see it. And that's not because of your age.

That's Craig S. Wright's kind of thinking... Won't happen.