Looks like the market didn't do much after the swings last week and is back to a consolidation phase just under $30K. The fact this is happening just below $30K instead of above it makes me think this rally may be starting to lose a little steam. I'm sure the movement of mtgox coins spooked some folks into selling but the buyers were there to scoop up the BTC and bring the price back up. I think we've got some choppy trading in the near future but once the mtgox coins and US gov coins are bought up, it will be off to the races. That should supercharge the halfining and set us up for a nice run into the next bubble as spot ETFs begin getting approved.
Yes, i think so too, maybe 35K-40K by the halving, but it doesn't mean that we cannot go to 48-50K sometime this summer.
On the other hand, there is some eerie similarity between 2008 and now.
Back then, Bear went bust in March, stocks then rallied into May (including Lehman), then started to slowly decline (first into mid July) and then more precipitously from the end of August and into October, then lower low in November.
Right now, we had the SVB 'event' in March, now stocks are rallying and I don't think anybody would care much about FRC since they were also 'crippled' back in March, effectively, so market probably considers all of those 3-4 banks a part of one event.
However, markets may feel less cocky at the end of Q3 if recession would be happening.
I don't know what would happen this Fall, and which institution could be Lehmanesque, we shall see.
TL;DR imho, $40-50K bitcoin peak during summer, decline to $30K (not lower, hopefully), then back to $40K by the halving.
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