Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[y3804]

Rpietila

Grow some balls man. Youve lost your bet. Otherwise you're just a pussy trying to find some lame excuse. Anyway, don't try too hard, who cares about internet reputation, right? I certainly don't

[ShroomsKit]

Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish:

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Keywords:
- (implicit) in BTC
- (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever")
- trigger condition breaching 435
- someone (anyone can take it!)
- send me PM
- much better than 1:1 odds for me

Windjc's proposal:

In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.

In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.

What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.

I think you will offer an unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.

But let me know.

Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.

Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?

Since you are too chicken s*** to make a bet, here's one for you.

Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days

If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.

Keywords:
- in USD
- short duration 30 days
- trigger condition breaching 435 and breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie)
- aimed for me only, with insult
- public
- 1:1 odds, with charity clause

* *

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet.

The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply?   ).

In the meanwhile nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

Jesus Christ. Just saying yes i was wrong should've been enough. And would make you look like a decent person for once. Idiot.

[OldGeek]

I just found this item:
http://www.wired.com/2014/04/darkmarket/

Slightly bullish for adoption if someone really takes off with it.  A more secure Silk Road.

[rpietila]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

[y3804]

I just found this item:
http://www.wired.com/2014/04/darkmarket/

Slightly bullish for adoption if someone really takes off with it.  A more secure Silk Road.

Isn't this the DarkCoin promoted market?

[OldGeek]

I just found this item:
http://www.wired.com/2014/04/darkmarket/

Slightly bullish for adoption if someone really takes off with it.  A more secure Silk Road.

Isn't this the DarkCoin promoted market?

From what I think I understand, it is coded by the same guy (group?) but he let it go in the wild.  On github now.

[windjc]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

[mmitech]

Rpietila

Grow some balls man. You've lost your bet. Otherwise you're just a pussy trying to find some lame excuse. Anyway, don't try too hard, who cares about internet reputation, right? I certainly don't

he is a bag full of shit, I thought I was wrong, but I was right all the time about him, he is what we call new to money, with an huge ego.... there is 4 kinds of a men:

-a smart who knows that he is smart, that's to follow
-an idiot who thinks he is smart, that's Risto
- a smart who doesn't know that he is smart, that's to wake up
- and idiot who knows that he is an idiot, that's to teach

I have enough of his ego and BS, he always say based on my calculations but he never shared his "calculations", you know that some of us are good at math, we could easily analyze his calculations, but because he pull his words out of his ass, and he gets sometimes lucky, the noobs worship him..... retards.

[OldGeek]

I just re-read some of the darkmarket info.  Seems like this idea would be theft proof too.  Woot!  

On the other hand, it doesn't offer much upside if it can't be exploited.  

[dreamspark]

Spread between exchanges is creeping up again.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

I really hope @mmitech won't have to apologize for the second time with @rpietila, that will be just hilarious. 

[mmitech]

I really hope @mmitech won't have to apologize for the second time with @rpietila, that will be just hilarious. 

hell no, fuck him...

[JorgeStolfi]

The US officials you gave as example are simply retarded and/or set up and/or part of a PR campaign.

Sorry, "here" is Brazil.

They were not particularly retarded, just did not imagine that they were under police surveillance.  The bribes were in cash because it was the only viable alternative; bank transfers would obviously not do.  (In another case the payment medium was an expensive piece of jewelry.  But the bribee was caught when he tried to sell it at a jewelry store, because, by bad luck, that piece had been stolen from that same jewelry store a couple of months earlier.)

You are very deluded if you believe bribe money passes through the personal bank accounts of those involved.

Most bribes of that magnitude (a few tens of thousands of dollars) probably do.  Money starts out in personal bank accounts and must end in personal bank accounts to be conveniently used.  Withdrawing or paying with big piles of cash calls unwanted attention.

Amounts involved in serious corruption or drug traffic (hundreds of millions) are too big to use BTC, and do not need it.  Did I mention that a couple of months ago our federal police caught a helicopter shipment of 450 kg of cocaine (one of a regular series it seems) in a farm here?  The helicopter belonged to a Senator, the pilot worked for the Senator, the farm belonged to the Senator, but to this day the police does not have a clue as to who could possibly be the owner of that cocaine.

Finally, if someone were to use BTC for bribe money, be certain the transfer would be thoroughly sterilized through a bunch of exchanges and other BTC hygiene services worldwide. Do you seriously believe there is any way to stop or detect this? For all I know there already exists a BTC laundromat for oligarchs.

I don't think that opening accounts on exchanges outside China would be easy for a typical Chinese small businessman.  Doing that sort of thing would require familiarity with the bitcoin technology and markets, not likely for such people.

If I were the FBI or NSA, I would set up dozens of bitcoin tumblers out there, with the cheapest rates and best service.  It would save a lot of time compared to tracing coins through the blockchain.

For all I know there is a lot of wishful thinking about "chinese oligarchs adopting BTC"...

[el_rlee]

Spread between exchanges is creeping up again.

If it only would decouple, that would be great...

[threecats]

Huixa bans btc

http://www.hxb.com.cn/chinese/callcenter/show.jsp?cid2=691118&id=13986536615280489

[OldGeek]

...snip...
I don't think that opening accounts on exchanges outside China would be easy for a typical Chinese small businessman.  Doing that sort of thing would require familiarity with the bitcoin technology and markets, not likely for such people.
...snip again...

I wonder, then, how arb is supposed to be working for the Chinese exchanges?

edit:  Sorry.  I misread your post.

[chessnut]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

[Markus11]

www.wired.com/2014/04/xapo/

[y3804]

Huixa bans btc

http://www.hxb.com.cn/chinese/callcenter/show.jsp?cid2=691118&id=13986536615280489

What is your source for news?

Crazy that they also banned withdrawal channel!

withdrawals of funds, purchase and sale of recharge codes related transactions and other activities not through my bank account funds transfer related transactions. Once found, the bank is entitled to take account transactions related to the suspension, cancellation related accounts and other measures.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation