Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Oversold. Jump on the buy train and make a few bones.

I don't see any time frames 15-minutes or above that are oversold. Daily has lots and lots of room to fall. I'm holding for now, but I'm looking for a good exit. Lower time frames show bullish diverging, so I think we'll bounce soon, but I don't expect much really. I'm gonna sit out and buy back in when the daily chart looks bullish.

Yeah? Good luck with that.   

[riiiising]

bitcoin is going down to where it came from

We'll go up, just wait and see We'll go to where no price has been before!

[Schickeria]

Bears never gonna learn  

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough to go down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.

[JayJuanGee]

bitcoin is going down to where it came from

We'll go up, just wait and see We'll go to where no price has been before!

This is gonna be great!!!!!!!!


One liner duels between riiiiising and falllllling.   


Where's my popcorn?   

[JayJuanGee]

Bears never gonna learn 

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough going down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.

We have to cross one bridge at a time, and prices have NOT really broken $500, yet.  Then it would take much more work to get to those various lower levels that you mentioned. Do you really think bears have that many coins to sell or that they will be able to convince enough holders to sell at these prices and even lower prices... Gonna be tough to even get into the sub $450s arena... and I really have my doubts about getting that low absent some really decent FUD or other real negative news...

NEVER say NEVER, though.. NOT in Bitcoinlandia.   

[bitebits]

"Currency of the future" being dumped again 

As soon as they have been dumped, it is history (and someone else's future).

[falllling]

Bears never gonna learn  

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough to go down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.

flash crash to $1xx can be expected after long sideways & too many failures to break out

[klee]

Bears never gonna learn  

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough to go down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.

I was hearing the same for 10, 100 and 1000 dollars....

Get over it you lost the CCMF

[Schickeria]

Bears never gonna learn  

It horrofies me reading such things after 9 months of bear market. Was it not enough going down to 300? Must it go down to the ~100 to cool down this maniac? Or even lower? To levels where is no more hope left?

Please let this not be a mirror of the general market sentiment, or the real cataclysm has not even happened.

We have to cross one bridge at a time, and prices have NOT really broken $500, yet.  Then it would take much more work to get to those various lower levels that you mentioned. Do you really think bears have that many coins to sell or that they will be able to convince enough holders to sell at these prices and even lower prices... Gonna be tough to even get into the sub $450s arena... and I really have my doubts about getting that low absent some really decent FUD or other real negative news...

NEVER say NEVER, though.. NOT in Bitcoinlandia.  

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

Get over it you lost the CCMF

*sigh*

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

So you should treat them better.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DutchTrades]

I still think that the $1200/BTC was just a test..

There are many news articles online about the Euro and the Usd that are expected to decrease in value due to the crisis and the ongoing wars (Russia/Ukrain, ISIS)

Don't think its going to take long before people are going to look for alternative currency's

We are in accumulation mode now

[oda.krell]

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

[...]

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw.


There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction:

(a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and

(b) that the only ones actually deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively).


(don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)

[Hunyadi]

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

[...]

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw.


There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction:

(a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and

(b) that the only ones actually deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively).


(don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)

It made sense to be a bear when the price was +900 USD and trolls screamed buy buy, but now when we are at the bottom, it doesn't make sense. Anyways, it is your choice.

[klee]

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

[...]

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw.


There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction:

(a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and

(b) that the only ones actually deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively).


(don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)

It made sense to be a bear when the price was +900 USD and trolls screamed buy buy, but now when we are at the bottom, it doesn't make sense. Anyways, it is your choice.

So much this - this is why you are wrong atm. Even if it goes at 400$.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

[...]

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw.


There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction:

(a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and

(b) that the only ones actually deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively).


(don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)

It made sense to be a bear when the price was +900 USD and trolls screamed buy buy, but now when we are at the bottom, it doesn't make sense. Anyways, it is your choice.

Assuming that we're at the (absolute) bottom is your choice, just as well. And, to be honest, I still hear a lot of screaming "buy now or you'll miss the train". In fact, more than before perhaps.

Which was exactly schickeria's point by the way (if I understood him correctly). What you call "bears" are, often enough, more cautious traders/investors. They will eventually get back on board, if there's a clearer sign that we're back in rally territory. Them staying cautious now is kinda understandable then, no?

Also, to be clear on this: I'm not advocating selling now if you're planning to only make a trade once or twice a year. Entry prices of mid, maybe high 400s are probably safe for the coming months, on average (as in: even if we dip back into that region, I doubt we'll get stuck there). But I also sneer at the idea that the next "bubble" is just a month away. The market is still absolutely shaken. We either consolidate for another few months at least, with a weak upwards trend at best, or, maybe preferably, we take another plunge down. (I say "preferably", because a really dramatic crash could bring out the fiat sitting on the sidelines, and get some volume back into the market.)

[inca]

Both we know, that a bear is not something static. The bad and clever bear only had to sell his coins on ~1000 and bought back on ~400 to have 2,5x more coins (on only one swing).

Reading "bears never learn" after a long and hard bear/consolidation market makes me a bit afraid, that market participants are losing touch with reality.

No, I don't think we will fall to levels of oblivion and I hope we will build up a stable base between 400 - 600.

[...]

The mysterious thing is that a lot of your bears will be on board of your CCMF, if and when it comes. Quite likely they would be one reason (if not the reason) of your CCMF.

Very much to the point. Really appreciate your posts in general in this thread, btw.


There was a discussion in here a while ago if it even makes sense to talk about "bulls" vs. "bears", or whether that's a gross simplification that should be avoided.. I suggested the following distinction:

(a) that as a successful trader or investor, you should strive to fall into neither camp, i.e. stay as objective wrt the market as possible, and

(b) that the only ones actually deserving the label "bull" (or "bear") are those who accuse others loudly of being a "bear" (or "bull", respectively).


(don't complain. it only looks like a paradoxical definition.)

It made sense to be a bear when the price was +900 USD and trolls screamed buy buy, but now when we are at the bottom, it doesn't make sense. Anyways, it is your choice.

Assuming that we're at the (absolute) bottom is your choice, just as well. And, to be honest, I still hear a lot of screaming "buy now or you'll miss the train". In fact, more than before perhaps.

Which was exactly schickeria's point by the way (if I understood him correctly). What you call "bears" are, often enough, more cautious traders/investors. They will eventually get back on board, if there's a clearer sign that we're back in rally territory. Them staying cautious now is kinda understandable then, no?

Also, to be clear on this: I'm not advocating selling now if you're planning to only make a trade once or twice a year. Entry prices of mid, maybe high 400s are probably safe for the coming months, on average (as in: even if we dip back into that region, I doubt we'll get stuck there). But I also sneer at the idea that the next "bubble" is just a month away. The market is still absolutely shaken. We either consolidate for another few months at least, with a weak upwards trend at best, or, maybe preferably, we take another plunge down. (I say "preferably", because a really dramatic crash could bring out the fiat sitting on the sidelines, and get some volume back into the market.)

There seems to be far more people screaming 'sell now or you'll loose everything' than bulls around, certainly on here anyway. Every day the price fails to bubble weak hands leave the market and coins are redistributed to those who are prepared to wait.

There is no sign of a bubble right now, but a month in bitcoin is a very long time..

[oda.krell]

There seems to be far more people screaming 'sell now or you'll loose everything' than bulls around, certainly on here anyway.

I don't even count people like fallling or dump3r, if that's who you have in mind. I have them on ignore, as they're barely literate.

Among the literate, non-trolling posters, yes, I do believe the majority is too optimistic for the short term.

Keep in mind, I replied to a post by schickeria who complained that in a market like this (consolidation at best, continued bear market at worst) posts like Klee's "Bears never gonna learn" start sounding delusional. I agree with that, even when I'm long-term extremely optimistic for Bitcoin.

[inca]

There seems to be far more people screaming 'sell now or you'll loose everything' than bulls around, certainly on here anyway.

I don't even count people like fallling or dump3r, if that's who you have in mind. I have them on ignore, as they're barely literate.

Among the literate, non-trolling posters, yes, I do believe the majority is too optimistic for the short term.

Keep in mind, I replied to a post by schickeria who complained that in a market like this (consolidation at best, continued bear market at worst) posts like Klee's "Bears never gonna learn" start sounding delusional. I agree with that, even when I'm long-term extremely optimistic for Bitcoin.

I guess its all about timeframes. 'Bears never gonna learn' if you think in years and look back over the charts. In the short term, then i would agree it sounds a bit farfetched.

The thing about bubbles is they aren't usually well anticipated by market participants at the time, though it is obvious in the rear view mirror. All it would take to get every bear on here buying back in is some market positive news with associated heavy buying (gabi, etf, google integrating bitcoin into a wallet, amazon or ebay directly integrating btc) to shove the price up past 680 into the 7xx's. Then suddenly the bottom was obviously in at 33x. Or we could dive down again. Either way I will accumulate further..

[Sandia]

There seems to be far more people screaming 'sell now or you'll loose everything' than bulls around, certainly on here anyway.

I don't even count people like fallling or dump3r, if that's who you have in mind. I have them on ignore, as they're barely literate.

Among the literate, non-trolling posters, yes, I do believe the majority is too optimistic for the short term.

Keep in mind, I replied to a post by schickeria who complained that in a market like this (consolidation at best, continued bear market at worst) posts like Klee's "Bears never gonna learn" start sounding delusional. I agree with that, even when I'm long-term extremely optimistic for Bitcoin.

Keep in mind, this is the Wall Observer thread.  It is about minute-by-minute chart watching, not macro market moves.  $5-10 price moves are the subject, not long term trends.

Every (yes, I said every) CCMF post is made tongue in cheek.  I think 90% of the bear posts are also tongue in cheek.  Overall, IMHO the bull/bear thing is more about easy entertainment than reality.

I am a scalper and all profits go into more btc.  On a daily basis, I don't care if it is up or down.  Long-term, YOY,  I am a bull so I am happier with ups than with downs.   Does it make me smile when the market beats a bearish prediction?  Yeah.  But I probably made money either way.

TL;DR: most of the bear/bull stuff is banter.