[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

Have got 1862 more LTC-ATF.B1 for us at face value from an investor who wanted to sell.

Currently awaiting manual processing:
  Withdrawal of 200 requested 2013-06-28 16:06:26. Cancel
  Withdrawal of 100 requested 2013-06-28 16:37:05. Cancel
  Withdrawal of 18.62 requested 2013-06-28 16:55:02. Cancel

That's our pending withdrawals - the third one is the payment for the LTC-ATB.B1 which will be in our account on LTC-Global shortly.

[Deprived]

Sold   505
Swapped   0
Total   505
Price   0.053705
Total   27.121025
Less Fee   27.06678295
Man Fee   0.812003489

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,257.85886871
12500 LTC-ATF.B1    125.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,382.85886871
   
Outstanding MINING   26681
Outstanding SELLING   26681
Outstanding PURCHASE   348
Effective Units   27029
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,379.34449907
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05103202
Days Dividend Post Div   392.49
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,379.34449907
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05103202
PURCHASE selling price    0.05358362
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.05001138

[twentyseventy]

Both motions passed, so I'll be transferring 200 BTC to CoinLenders and buying a 30-day CD and depositing 100 BTC into Just-Dice.

For today's report (in about an hour) that 300 BTC will be shown as on BTC-TC - if the actual balance drops then it means burnside has approved the manual withdrawals.  As I can't predict when that will happen I'll just leave it as though it was in BTC-TC for now.

In future reports those investments will be individually reported.  Coinlenders will have the interest calculated and applied daily (we get it all at the end of 30 days but it would be wrong not to add it until then - as we'd be selling new PURCHASE too cheaply).  With Just-Dice I'll be reporting the actual balance at (or around) each report - it may be some minutes out of date.

Withdrawal to Coinlenders has already been initiated - and is waiting on manual processing.

Here's confirmation of the address being sent to - so if the BTC-TC balance drops you should see 200 BTC on its way to this address.

Message   CoinLenders User Deprived Deposit Address: 1JmP3seEPDvajmpYchJhAQeigsLWqSMzxK Server 1
Signature   IDP2437qPrH86nPQ9nRwV5gBN62teNVX8MuU3ePWVyPuI+CWQ/j3OOxYHgHpY74EWq7SoaW3OK5WE7frkA433Gk=
Signing Addr   See here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=159359.msg2250828#msg2250828

My accounts with Coinlenders and Just-Dice will, of course, have 2FA (it's already switched on for Coinlenders).

Thanks for jumping on that, Deprived! This is a very well managed security.

Also:

[Lohoris]

Coinlenders will have the interest calculated and applied daily (we get it all at the end of 30 days but it would be wrong not to add it until then - as we'd be selling new PURCHASE too cheaply).

Please pardon my noobness, but I don't get it.

The (of course remote) risk with Coinlenders, is that they default the payment. So, until they have actually paid us back, we would be still running that risk. When they pay back, that risk is averted. So it would make perfect sense to have PURCHASE cheaper until they paid back, because they would be still under the default risk.

[Deprived]

Coinlenders will have the interest calculated and applied daily (we get it all at the end of 30 days but it would be wrong not to add it until then - as we'd be selling new PURCHASE too cheaply).

Please pardon my noobness, but I don't get it.

The (of course remote) risk with Coinlenders, is that they default the payment. So, until they have actually paid us back, we would be still running that risk. When they pay back, that risk is averted. So it would make perfect sense to have PURCHASE cheaper until they paid back, because they would be still under the default risk.

If coinlenders were to default then we'd lose the principal - not just the interest.  So I'd have to be marking it down immediately to reflect the risk of that.
By the same token I should make down ALL the capital as if BTC-TC defaults we lose it.

There's CP risk on the capital wherever it is - I'm not going to start applying different multipliers to each bit of cash to reflect some relative risk-assessment.  We now (or when it getst here) have 200 (+accrued interest) exposure to Coinlenders and the same amount less CP exposure to BTC-TC.  I'm treating thos two as cancelling one another out - for simplicity.

I see no reason to believe Coinlenders is more likely to steal interest than principal - so all cash on deposit there is being treated the same.

[Lohoris]

If coinlenders were to default then we'd lose the principal - not just the interest.  So I'd have to be marking it down immediately to reflect the risk of that.
By the same token I should make down ALL the capital as if BTC-TC defaults we lose it.
[...]

Ooh, true, that makes sense, my bad!

I'm also not sure the arbitrage calculation is taking into account losing 0.2% to transaction fees on every buy of PURCHASE and sale of MINING.

Done, and accounted for the fee on buying SELLING too.
Hoping I've done everything right (*1.02 buys, *0.98 sells, is that correct?).

[Deprived]

I'm also not sure the arbitrage calculation is taking into account losing 0.2% to transaction fees on every buy of PURCHASE and sale of MINING.

Done, and accounted for the fee on buying SELLING too.
Hoping I've done everything right (*1.02 buys, *0.98 sells, is that correct?).

Yeah - assuming you have 2FA on.  Otherwise think it's .25%.

Actually no - it's wrong

*1.002 on buys, *.998 sells.

You were applying 2% not 0.2%.

[Lohoris]

Actually no - it's wrong

*1.002 on buys, *.998 sells.

You were applying 2% not 0.2%.

Oh, thanks, fixed!

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Just so you know, for the CDs view the amount is an interpolation of your yield with the current time. It's not applied daily, it's up to the moment - you can refresh to see the satoshi's rolling in.

[Deprived]

Just so you know, for the CDs view the amount is an interpolation of your yield with the current time. It's not applied daily, it's up to the moment - you can refresh to see the satoshi's rolling in.

Ah, in that case I can just login a bit before doing my report and look the value up - saves me some calculation.  But first need burnside to show up and process the withdrawals.

[alexius89]

Hey Guys!

so tomorrow will be the Dividend for SELLING?   Whats the estimated amount per share?

[Rannasha]

Hey Guys!

so tomorrow will be the Dividend for SELLING?   Whats the estimated amount per share?

With the recent difficulty estimates from bitcoindifficulty.com, I estimate SELLING dividend to be 4.3 mBTC per share. But the network hashrate has been going up the last few days, so the final difficulty may still end up a bit higher than the recent estimate. The dividend will not be as high as last time, but there will still be a sizable dividend. The precise value we'll know tomorrow.

[Deprived]

Hey Guys!

so tomorrow will be the Dividend for SELLING?   Whats the estimated amount per share?

With the recent difficulty estimates from bitcoindifficulty.com, I estimate SELLING dividend to be 4.3 mBTC per share. But the network hashrate has been going up the last few days, so the final difficulty may still end up a bit higher than the recent estimate. The dividend will not be as high as last time, but there will still be a sizable dividend. The precise value we'll know tomorrow.

Sounds about right - it'll be a lot smaller than last one but still a decent size.  We'll know exactly how much later today - as soon as difficulty changes, which sould be in about an hour or two's time.  Although the change is almost certainly going to happen before today's difficulty, MINING dividend today will be at the old rate and SELLING won't get a dividend until after MINING's dividend tomorrow.

After I post today's results I'll immediately (assuming difficulty has changed) post a spreadsheet showing what would happen if the next dividend was done immediately.  In practice SELLING difficulty will be slightly higher (sales of PURCHASE + the LTC-ATF.B1 dividend comes today so will be added onto the dividend tomorrow).

[alexius89]

sounds great, thanks deprived.

Happy to see the SELLING  DIVIDEND tomorrow.

[eltopo]

My sheet says 0.0038889453 with the new difficulty at 21,335,329 (+10,3%) based on DMS data from yesterday.

Expect SELLING shareprice to drop about 0.0038889453 tomorrow 

[Deprived]

Sold   851
Swapped   0
Total   851
Price   0.053705
Total   45.702955
Less Fee   45.61154909
Man Fee   1.368346473

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   979.863193
14362 LTC-ATF.B1    143.62000000
Coinlenders CD    200.06200176
Just-Dice Balance    99.93705666
TOTAL ASSETS    1,423.48225137
   
Outstanding MINING   27512
Outstanding SELLING   27512
Outstanding PURCHASE   368
Effective Units   27880
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   19,339,258
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00013002
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00650111
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01300222
365 days (Buyback)    0.04745810
405 days (IPO)    0.05265898
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.05200887
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.05330910
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,419.85723285
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05092745
Days Dividend Post Div   391.68
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,419.85723285
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.05092745
PURCHASE selling price    0.05347382
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.04990890

We're actually down very slightly on Just-Dice : we were up until an hour or ago.

Will make a 2nd post showing what tomorrow's will look like.

[Deprived]

ESTIMATE FOR TOMORROW'S REPORT - NOT AN ACTUAL REPORT

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   977.0382354
14362 LTC-ATF.B1    143.62000000
Coinlenders CD    200.06200176
Just-Dice Balance    99.93705666
TOTAL ASSETS    1,420.65729377
   
Outstanding MINING   27512
Outstanding SELLING   27512
Outstanding PURCHASE   368
Effective Units   27880
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   21,335,329
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00011786
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00589288
100 days (Forced Close)    0.01178577
365 days (Buyback)    0.04301806
405 days (IPO)    0.04773236
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.04714308
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.04832165
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,417.37142138
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.05083829
Days Dividend Post Div   431.35
SELLING Dividend    0.00369521
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,314.34895408
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.04714308
PURCHASE selling price    0.04950023
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.04620021

This includes an estimated 0.8 BTC in investment income.

Am guessing eltopo forgot to take off either today or tomorrow's mining dividend in his calculation (or mine's wrong).

[eltopo]

Yup, I forgot tomorrows MINING div. Got the same numbers now.

[twentyseventy]

Is PURCHASE going back up soon?

EDIT: There it goes!

[Deprived]

Is PURCHASE going back up soon?

EDIT: There it goes!

Sorry about that - totally forgot to put it back up for half an hour.