[OLD] Eligius: ASIC, no registration, no fee CPPSRB BTC + 105% PPS NMC, 877 #

[Luke-Jr]

http://eligius.st/~artefact2/7/18c8oXmyvfAFjeR575y5XACJhtrVf9yfjR

 

Balance

Unpaid reward : 0.21928776 BTC

Edit: After this current round, you will have 55 satoshis EC left; so about 55 more blocks...

[John (John K.)]

http://eligius.st/~artefact2/7/18c8oXmyvfAFjeR575y5XACJhtrVf9yfjR

 

Balance

Unpaid reward : 0.21928776 BTC

Edit: After this current round, you will have 55 satoshis EC left; so about 55 more blocks...

Oh, so the actual balance isn't this?:

Code:

Current block estimate : 0.00000001 BTC

I keep seeing this number halve until it reached a satoshi, so I thought this is my EC balance... Guess I'll have to wait it out then. 

[Luke-Jr]

http://eligius.st/~artefact2/7/18c8oXmyvfAFjeR575y5XACJhtrVf9yfjR

 

Balance

Unpaid reward : 0.21928776 BTC

Edit: After this current round, you will have 55 satoshis EC left; so about 55 more blocks...

Oh, so the actual balance isn't this?:

Code:

Current block estimate : 0.00000001 BTC

I keep seeing this number halve until it reached a satoshi, so I thought this is my EC balance... Guess I'll have to wait it out then. 

That's the estimated reward that will be added to your balance at the end of the current round.

[piotr_n]

I keep seeing this number halve until it reached a satoshi, so I thought this is my EC balance... Guess I'll have to wait it out then. 

I guess, because of this, the pool thinks that you are still mining with it, thus it hasn't started to count down the timeout..

[John (John K.)]

I keep seeing this number halve until it reached a satoshi, so I thought this is my EC balance... Guess I'll have to wait it out then. 

I guess, because of this, the pool thinks that you are still mining with it, thus it hasn't started to count down the timeout..

I've got a good mind to restart my miners and mine for a couple of days, just to reach the ~0.67 level and clear my remaining balance now. Damn the temps here! 

[The00Dustin]

I've got a good mind to restart my miners and mine for a couple of days, just to reach the ~0.67 level and clear my remaining balance now. Damn the temps here! 

Mining until you were owed ~.67 wouldn't get you paid much faster (if at all), you still have to wait for enough blocks to be found to catch up everyone with older balances than yours.

[julz]

I seem to be getting an extremely low return for the current 400MH or so I'm throwing at eligius.
0.28BTC total over about 4 days (from mining calculator I expected about 0.25 per day)

I took a look at some graphs from other users at about the same MH, and they were getting more.
Below are my recent blocks and rewards.

Take line 2 for example - I don't understand why 3,515 shares * 0.00001919 gave me only 0.03085898 reward.
I calculate it should be about 0.067
Is this addressed in the FAQ somewhere? I'm not understanding what's going on.


19 minutes ago   4h   7m   8s   1,488   973,421   0.00005136 BTC   0.03168119 BTC   116 left   …313B9AA65606EB1FE0279A0B4
about 4 hours ago   10h   13m   21s   3,515   2,605,474   0.00001919 BTC   0.03085898 BTC   81 left   …3EFA7966240788E4FC27E21D0
about 14 hours ago   8h   57m   1s   3,106   2,419,985   0.00002066 BTC   0.02902374 BTC   Confirmed   …8DF80D12D7EDC632619FA2AE8
about 23 hours ago   6h   7m   55s   2,111   1,754,130   0.00002850 BTC   0.02735966 BTC   Confirmed   …F0DDCEC260A44E74B1C2A1BD2
about 1 day ago   4h   56m   47s   1,684   1,434,352   0.00003485 BTC   0.02622993 BTC   Confirmed   …0627353E0783620E6E965938D
about 1 day ago   9h   55m   23s   3,627   3,049,598   0.00001639 BTC   0.02531935 BTC   Confirmed   …D67A75AC6B630C32B693FBA8F
about 1 day ago   5h   19m   7s   1,861   1,623,054   0.00003080 BTC   0.02322007 BTC   Confirmed   …3705A0EC06C7114D541DD4197
about 2 days ago   1h   47m   47s   634   535,567   0.00009335 BTC   0.02210366 BTC   Confirmed   …90E9A48E8985CD4523E1AB9DC
about 2 days ago   3h   56m   50s   1,367   1,178,195   0.00004243 BTC   0.02171143 BTC   Confirmed   …B2EA25383DCD619C9ECA04480
about 2 days ago   29h   18m   36s   13,224   9,416,904   0.00000530 BTC   0.02087447 BTC   Confirmed   …3D4D1F3A970B33367A603511A

[Krakonos]

I've got a good mind to restart my miners and mine for a couple of days, just to reach the ~0.67 level and clear my remaining balance now. Damn the temps here! 

Mining until you were owed ~.67 wouldn't get you paid much faster (if at all), you still have to wait for enough blocks to be found to catch up everyone with older balances than yours.

It seems his balance is pretty old (he's not mining for weeks), so it would be paid very soon.

[Krakonos]

I seem to be getting an extremely low return for the current 400MH or so I'm throwing at eligius.
0.28BTC total over about 4 days (from mining calculator I expected about 0.25 per day)

I'm no expert, but I think it's the extra credit stuff. The pool recently has very bad luck and does not have coins to pay everyone in full. It will give you some and remember the extra credit for your address. When the luck will get better, you'll get more coins per share.

On the graphs, you can see the blue line what has been paid a the pink area what should have been paid.

The explanation of the reward system is here: http://eligius.st/wiki/index.php/Shared_Maximum_PPS

[julz]

Thanks for the explanation Krakonos.
I'm still unclear on whether the existing shares I've contributed really will increase in reward over time, or if it's just that in theory my 'luck' will get closer to the pink area in the end.

The upshot of this is.. over 5 days I've got 21% of what I expected :/
I have some other rigs pointed at btcguild and I'm getting the expected returns for my hashrates.

[Krakonos]

Thanks for the explanation Krakonos.
I'm still unclear on whether the existing shares I've contributed really will increase in reward over time, or if it's just that in theory my 'luck' will get closer to the pink area in the end.

Well, current shares would not (I think). But future shares would have higher value to compensate. Unfortunately I don't remember the correct math with extra credit, so I can't be sure.

You can see this when we hit more blocks in row, that your reward per share is significantly higher than expected with average luck. That's the pool repaying you extra credit :-).

(The Edit is because my browser decided to post in mid-sentece.)

[julz]

Thanks for the explanation Krakonos.
I'm still unclear on whether the existing shares I've contributed really will increase in reward over time, or if it's just that in theory my 'luck' will get closer to the pink area in the end.

Well, current shares would not (I think). But future shares would have higher value to compensate. Unfortunately I don't remember the correct math with extra credit, so I can't be sure.

You can see this when we hit more blocks in row, that your reward per share is significantly higher than expected with average luck. That's the pool repaying you extra credit :-).

(The Edit is because my browser decided to post in mid-sentece.)

hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return. I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy?  ie  just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads.  Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?

[-ck]

hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return. I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy?  ie  just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads.  Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?

It is possible that you have bad luck "forever" according to gambler's fallacy. Be aware that arsbitcoin had this issue with their payout scheme and towards the end all the miners were out a LOT of btc and the luck slowly got better but never recovered the massive negative state they had reached and then the pool shutdown and the miners never got it back.

[jkminkov]

hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return. I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy?  ie  just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads.  Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?

It is possible that you have bad luck "forever" according to gambler's fallacy. Be aware that arsbitcoin had this issue with their payout scheme and towards the end all the miners were out a LOT of btc and the luck slowly got better but never recovered the massive negative state they had reached and then the pool shutdown and the miners never got it back.

how can you call -1.138% Massive negative state...wondering what adjective you will use for itzod's -9.611%...

[-ck]

hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return. I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy?  ie  just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads.  Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?

It is possible that you have bad luck "forever" according to gambler's fallacy. Be aware that arsbitcoin had this issue with their payout scheme and towards the end all the miners were out a LOT of btc and the luck slowly got better but never recovered the massive negative state they had reached and then the pool shutdown and the miners never got it back.

how can you call -1.138% Massive negative state...wondering what adjective you will use for itzod's -9.611%...

Heh that's just plain awesome and I wasn't aware of their magnitude of fail. Nonetheless, it meant people were a long way behind in payments on ars. I only bring this up because said payment scheme is relevant to this pool (which I don't mine at...)

[Clipse]

hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return. I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy?  ie  just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads.  Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?

It is possible that you have bad luck "forever" according to gambler's fallacy. Be aware that arsbitcoin had this issue with their payout scheme and towards the end all the miners were out a LOT of btc and the luck slowly got better but never recovered the massive negative state they had reached and then the pool shutdown and the miners never got it back.

how can you call -1.138% Massive negative state...wondering what adjective you will use for itzod's -9.611%...

Heh that's just plain awesome and I wasn't aware of their magnitude of fail. Nonetheless, it meant people were a long way behind in payments on ars. I only bring this up because said payment scheme is relevant to this pool (which I don't mine at...)

The problem with luck and poolwide hashrate is that generally when a pool is going through badluck swings alot of users jump ship and then once they do hit some good luck recovery spree there is either fewer GH available for the duration or fewer users who left then returns.

If you aggregate this process you end up with arsbitcoin as the result and that is the single reason I just dont think SMPPS is viable at all longterm unless you have a way to keep your starting avg hashrate longterm the same or higher. Any GH drop and usually its substantial during badluck period in effect slowly kills the negative buffer overtime with little hope to recover as we saw with arsbitcoin.

[Luke-Jr]

hmm.. so I have to keep mining with Eligius in order to get back to expected return.

No, Extra Credit is included in the pool's considerations whether you keep mining or not.

I'm not particularly well versed in the mathematics of probability.. but isn't this a bit like the gambler's fallacy?  ie  just because I've tossed a run of 10 tails in a row doesn't mean I'm more likely to get a run of heads.  Does the maths really say It'll come good for me?

Gambler's fallacy is the short-term; eg, just because you get 10 bad runs doesn't mean the 11th will be any better. For the long run, the law of large numbers says the average reward obtained from a large number of rounds should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more we mine.

The problem with Ars was that it ran unmaintained for months and started mining only invalid blocks, then shut down completely. Why miners continued to use it after Burning Toad announced it was unmanned (heck, even now people still pop into the IRC channel saying they're having problems mining from time to time), I'm not really sure - but it does mean that so long as a pool is maintained, it should never completely die from impatient miners. That being said, some of the SMPPS variants handle new miners better, and may be worth switching to so we can resume growth...

[Krakonos]

Hey,

One question. I looked at the algorithm and it seems that you'll get paid extra credit even if you stopped mining. Is it right?

If it is so, is there a variant that miners that ceased their activity (did not submitted share for given round) will be paid last? I'm thinking of this because if the majority leaves the pool (honeslty, almost 200GH left the pool when bad luck broke in full), the others will be mining and paying them, and in the end it will take longer to get to positive numbers, leading to more miners leaving and sending the pool to grave.

If you'd delay those payments until every active miner has zero extra credit, those who are mining will more likely stay on the pool, since they'll be getting at least the expected PPS.

Also, isn't this problem in ESMPPS? The veteran miners might be motivated to mine under new address to get paid sooner.

I'm sorry if this is answered somewhere, as I haven't actually studied more to it than what is on eligius wiki. RTFM-like answer would suffice :-)

[Luke-Jr]

One question. I looked at the algorithm and it seems that you'll get paid extra credit even if you stopped mining. Is it right?

Yes. I answered this in the post immediately above yours!

If it is so, is there a variant that miners that ceased their activity (did not submitted share for given round) will be paid last?

Recent Shared Maximum Pay Per Share. (I mentioned this in that last post too...)

Also, isn't this problem in ESMPPS? The veteran miners might be motivated to mine under new address to get paid sooner.

Using a new address doesn't have any influence on ESMPPS. The equalization is per-share, not per-address.

[rjk]

If it is so, is there a variant that miners that ceased their activity (did not submitted share for given round) will be paid last?

RSMPPS. itzod.ru uses that payout method.