To make it more clear:
Expected behavior: if the pool is unlucky, as my shelved shares are deeper and deeper in the queue (i.e. in the past), during the lucky phase at the start of each round, I will see 'estimated' graph at the start of each round with a lower threshold above the paid+unpaid graph, and decaying faster and faster, until I fall too deep in the queue and I reach the moment when it becomes flat.
Observed behavior: until June 26 I have seen expected behavior as described above, but it was far from becoming "flat" at that time (edit: unfortunately now we can hardly see it on the graph, it's too much in the past). Since then, the "estimated" graph is flat. It was all of a sudden, and it coincides with a short period (tens of seconds) when I submitted many shares, after being idle for long, and the staying idle for long. The hashrate graphs are correct (I currently no longer mine with that address, the spikes are just testing), but on the rewards graph, I can't understand the "break" of June 26.
Edit: another thing, the shelved shares date back from some (2-3) weeks ago, not months.
Since about 2 days ago there is something weird with my stats/payouts
, they seem to be "stuck" during rounds, and even during the lucky phase of each round, my shelved shares stay on the shelf.
It seems other contibutors' stats are OK. Could you please check this address? Thanks!
Bump, problem still there... thanks
This is not an actual problem. You are no longer mining here, and your older shelved shares are pushed behind the new shares from active miners during our past few unlucky rounds. Since you are not mining, you no longer have any new shares in the top portion of the share log. So, this will make it take longer for the pool to dig down to the shares you do have in the share log, which are under the shares that are from active miners from the recent rounds which ere not yet fully paid.
Summary: this is normal behavior.
I think I understand CPPSRB quite well and, sorry, but I must insist:
Until June 26, I could clearly see my shelved shares getting included early during the lucky phase of rounds.
Since June 26, after a short "share strobe" (many shares for less than a minute), I have never seen any shelved share, even early after several rounds with much more than 100% luck / <50% CDF, taken from my shelved shares to payout. Not a single one. It is now the last day where you can see the "not flat" part on my stats graph
To make my point stronger, I will make a 0.2 BTC donation
(0.1 as a donation to the pool and 0.1 to the one that explains it to me, probably Wizkid) if you can look at it again, and explain to me why such a difference between before June 26 and after June 26, and again come to the conclusion that this is perfectly normal.
EDIT: 1st suspect to my eyes are these "strobes", you can see the 1st strobe coincides with the moment when I wouldn't get any more shares "unshelved" from that point.
First, let me point out that no donations are needed for this. I'd much rather you understand the system regardless.
I'm not sure what you mean by "strobes", but I will attempt to explain your personal situation in as much detail as possible.
Lets first take a look at a historical graph of your mining hashrate and balance changes:
And now lets take a closer look at the time after you stopped mining with the pool:
Before I go any further, let me point out that based on these graphs, approximately 0.2 BTC in shelved shares were in fact rewarded to you in the period between the time you stopped mining with us and now.
I believe you somewhat understand the spikes in the estimated balance are the shelved shares that could be paid at the start of a round (lucky) and tapering off as a) no new shares from active mining are added, and b) less of your shelved shares are in the top 25 BTC of the share log as they are pushed further down by active miners' shares. This is exactly what is happening here in your graph.
So, to set the stage, your most recent shelved share was mined on 2013-06-21. Then, after that, 0.2 BTC worth were paid/rewarded, making it so your most recent shelved share is even older than that since your newest ones were paid first. I'll spare you the math in figuring it out (can be estimate with the graphs alone), but as of today your newest shelved share is from approximately 2013-06-17.
So, in order for your shelved shares to be in the top 25 BTC of the share log, and thus have an estimated payout (spike in the estimate balance graph) possible that means that every share from right this moment all the way back to 2013-06-17 would need to be either already paid or total less than 25 BTC. Consider that is nearly three weeks of time, and there have been many unlucky rounds in that time frame, neither is likely.
It looks like, according to your graph, your shelved shares stopped being in the top of the share log around 2013-06-25. Specifically, the last block that caused your estimated balance graph to change was 243,363 (compare the times). Lets take a look at the block history from that time frame forward:
Here is the meat of this whole exercise: Notice that block 243,363 was unlucky, 44,469,230 shares at difficulty 19,339,258. That means this block alone put 25,129,972 newer shares than yours on top of the share log as new shelved. When block 243,429 was found, the top of the share log (25 BTC, or approximately 19,339,258 shares) was taken as estimated payouts for this new round. But wait, 25,129,972 in shelved shares were just added on top of your shelved. 25,129,972 > 19,339,258, thus your shelved shares are no longer in the top 25 BTC of the share log. Looking further up the block list, block 243,429 was also unlucky, adding approximately 23,342,644 more shares on top of your shelved. So, just the next two blocks alone have buried your shelved shares under over 48 million active miner shares. Take into consideration that there was a decent run of unlucky blocks to follow, and your shelved shares are so far under currently active miners' shares that there is no way they would be near the top of the share log any time soon.
So, the system is working perfectly, you just stopped mining at a particularly unlucky time, not that you had any way of knowing that.
CPPSRB variance averages out, generally over approximately 60+ days, to level off in the upper 90s% PPS, even 100% PPS at times. (See variance graph on the stats page) You had only mined with Eligius for about 4 weeks, which, taking into account the bad luck rounds in that time and to follow, is definitely not enough time for variance to average out nicely to a high % PPS. Even so, according to your stats page you were paid over 90% PPS on average for your work. This definitely would have been higher had you continued to mine with us, or had the pool been more lucky.
In any case, the system is working perfectly. Under CPPSRB active miners always have an advantage, since they will always have shares in the top 25 BTC of the share log, and thus are always earning. When you stop mining you are purely at the mercy of the luck that follows, which in your case was not the best.
I hope this helps you understand the setup better and the details of your particular situation.