Analysis

[wpalczynski]

guys let's not reduce the quality of this thread speculating without qualitative/quantitative arguments.

you see the funny thing is that there are actually two predictions of Luc out there. One says a giant triangle until next summer and the other says big move started that will bring us beyong ATH. So no matter what, the believers in this thread will hail Luc whatever happens, if we bounce of 750$ and go 500$ he was spot on, if we pass 750$ and go 1000$ he will be seen as spot on too.  

I cant remember seeing the latter one.  Can you post a link please?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg16483148#msg16483148

Thanks.  Not really his EW based prediction though right?  He just posted someones chart.

Im pretty sure that's his chart

The description under the chart does not read like his writing to me.

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[ImI]

Not really his EW based prediction though right? 

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

[sandiman]

Not really his EW based prediction though right?

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility)

[RyNinDaCleM]

@the last few posts...
This is  luc in 2011 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=29732
This is also him https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=50218
And him yet again https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=144672

Note the first one and compare to the chart posted.
His earlier prediction is that we are in the large wave-3 since Bitcoin's birth... so yes, it's ew

[ImI]

Not really his EW based prediction though right?

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility)

so, like i said, there are two predictions out there. one says big triangle that reaches well into 2017 and one says we start a nice rally from this point.

just trying to clarify what's the consensus.

[StarenseN]

And don't forget, Luc was also bearish in end 2012 at 13$ before the mega bull wave (x20 bubble to 260)

So please stop all this cult. He's been right and wrong too.

However, this is a quality thread that I enjoy to come by.

[Afrikoin]

we're going up.

Luc was right about going up *eventually*

but he got the pattern wrong. no giant triangle consolidation this time.

also chessnut seems to agree about the fact we are not going up:

...

This downside move was an impulse and it's broken some important levels. big time sideways should follow, downside risk is higher now

its a temporary move down. Could go as low as $650, but its all the way up after that

[Afrikoin]

we're going up.

Luc was right about going up *eventually*

but he got the pattern wrong. no giant triangle consolidation this time.

also chessnut seems to agree about the fact we are not going up:

...

This downside move was an impulse and it's broken some important levels. big time sideways should follow, downside risk is higher now

its a temporary move down. Could go as low as $650, but its all the way up after that

[Afrikoin]

we're going up.

Luc was right about going up *eventually*

but he got the pattern wrong. no giant triangle consolidation this time.

also chessnut seems to agree about the fact we are not going up:

...

This downside move was an impulse and it's broken some important levels. big time sideways should follow, downside risk is higher now

[img width=500]https://www.tradingview.com/x/ubpA7KJV/

Chess nut has also been wrong on some occassions. I like his thread and forecasts. he has a high % call ratio, but has been wrong on some occassions.

This is the whole reason why i started the Nights Watch thread. When you look at all the best/great charts out there, yo get a clear(er) picture of where price is headed.

[sandiman]

Not really his EW based prediction though right?

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility)

so, like i said, there are two predictions out there. one says big triangle that reaches well into 2017 and one says we start a nice rally from this point.

just trying to clarify what's the consensus.

You are right, seems that's all what we've got for the moment.

[podyx]

According to MasterLuc this is where we stop and bleed off to approx 580 in early January.  He's been right so many times, if Bitcoin does this Ill be blown away.

Looks like this may be in the works?

[Afrikoin]

Chess nut has also been wrong on some occassions. I like his thread and forecasts. he has a high % call ratio, but has been wrong on some occassions.

This is the whole reason why i started the Nights Watch thread. When you look at all the best/great charts out there, yo get a clear(er) picture of where price is headed.

"nights watch thread" <- what is that?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.1280

[Bitcoin0916]

Can't waiting for the price are reach $1000. I very sure that this will happen in this year. So, best strategy is buying and hold bitcoin.

[ssmc2]

Update from the Master? ... 

[STT]

That triangle is way over reaching on speculating a trend off two points.   I think it must be a declining triangle, constricted gradually into breakout.   No point calling it exactly till its in effect and confirmed the breakout then you can buy the momentum upwards.   Unfortunately its way too common to jump the gun and buy into the triangle hoping its correct and its never confirmed, goes down or sideways

[sandiman]

That triangle is way over reaching on speculating a trend off two points.   I think it must be a declining triangle, constricted gradually into breakout.   No point calling it exactly till its in effect and confirmed the breakout then you can buy the momentum upwards.   Unfortunately its way too common to jump the gun and buy into the triangle hoping its correct and its never confirmed, goes down or sideways

Please don't decrease the quality of this thread 

[jamyr]

Good evening.

                My presumption because of the result of the US Presidential election is that in this next 4 years, specifically next year, there will be a big blow, a mock blow from who-knows-where and then a big hop. Over the past 3-4 years, China had grown even more. Yes they are the new Super Power(I never heard of them bragging about it though). Chinese players, investors, bankers, etc., will then manipulate the prices. This, together with the new age of robotics(just saw one on the news recently but cant remember the exact date), would be a perfect combination. Imagine them sending their robo-pets to fetch some goods from the market, surely they will not let it carry cold cash.   

               Sorry for those who feel that I am dreaming, I wish I am, Trump as US president is the worst part of this gen. Thank you.
((basically, with the trend, I am feeling of a big slope down, then a wall straight up.))

[darlidada]

I invoke the master

[ImI]

I invoke the master

goodbye triangle

[darlidada]

I invoke the master

goodbye triangle

triangle still valid on US exchanges, technically its a triple top