Reddit’s science forum banned climate deniers.

[galdur]

What a relief. Everything will be absolutely scorching by the year 2100 but until then we´ll enjoy a brief respite of a few decades of cooling. Maybe a mini ice age if we´re really lucky?

[galdur]

Frost warnings in Newfoundland

JUNE 16, 2015

“Mid June and they are getting frost warnings still!!!”. Maybe they should tell the Pope. Frost advisories for Avalon Peninsula North, Avalon Peninsula Southwest, Avalon Peninsula Southeast, Bay of Exploits, Bay St. George and Bonavista North.

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=nl

[galdur]

Intense snow and wind in Tierra del Fuego

JUNE 16, 2015

Wind chill falls to below minus 11 degrees Celsius. Maybe someone should tell the Pope. 16 Jun 2015 – Intense snowfall in the province of Tierra del Fuego caused problems in traffic and transport, among other drawbacks. The worst part was for the inhabitants of several districts of Ushuaia, unable to move, without water and gas. Route 3, which links the island province from north to south, was cut entirely for several hours in Ushuaia-Lago stretch hidden by snowfall and low visibility, said National Road, but then was again enabled. In Ushuaia, the storm left the city virtually without transportation. Many were without gas service and water supply due to frozen pipes. “The situation in the districts is terrible, in Dos Banderas, La Cima, ” said Luis Torres, Barrios.

http://noticias.terra.com.ar/argentina/intenso-temporal-de-nieve-y-viento-en-tierra-del-fuego,6ab19ec558f1ed284876f347fdf299075f2vRCRD.html

[Spendulus]

What a relief. Everything will be absolutely scorching by the year 2100 but until then we´ll enjoy a brief respite of a few decades of cooling. Maybe a mini ice age if we´re really lucky?

First of all, these guys were totally wrong in their forecasts previously, so there is zero reason to believe them now.

They have pretty much zero capability to estimate planetary energy balance, it's effect on regional climate, let alone an ability to forecast that into the future. 

However, solar astronomers have warned of the possibility of a "little ice age", and I must mention that is not a trivial thing in this day and age.  That would be a disaster of AGW-hysterical proportions.  Think of the effect of "a year with no summer" on crop yields. 

In the past, declining sunspot activity has led to a mini ice age, and that's what we are seeing with the sun now.  There is another possibility, which is that not a mini, but a real ice age looms.   This is why it is really somewhat dangerous when political hacks parse the arguments into "mini ice age then it's scorching."

Real ice ages are based on orbital precession cycles, and each lasts about half of one cycle.  Guess what?  We are right now, right about half way through one....


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/21/its-snowing-and-it-really-feels-like-the-start-of-a-mini-ice-age-london-mayor-boris-johnson/

[galdur]

Well Spendulus, it´s rather obvious that it´s getting desperate for global warming pushers. And of course the supply of chronically gullible idiots believing all the war scam spin is drying up as well. There´s always a tipping point - I guess. Now even the friggin Pope is going ballistic trying to hold the line and somehow retain the last remnants of believers, the totally brain dead in his own flock.

[Cryddit]

This discussion got stupid a long time ago so I really shouldn't be replying, but I'm doing it anyway....

There are three different main "chaotic attractors" in the state space of earth's climate.  They are called Greenhouse Earth, Icehouse Earth, and Snowball Earth, and under normal circumstances they last for at least millions of years each.  Usually Greenhouse and Icehouse earth alternate with each other; the conditions that lead to a Snowball Earth are not well understood although the geological record shows evidence of them and we have solid modeling that indicates why they have to end.  The Eocene period, ending about 50 million years ago, was a Greenhouse Earth that was followed by an Icehouse Earth;  And during the Permian period, about 300 Million years ago, an Icehouse period was followed by a Greenhouse period.

Snowball Earth is HORRIBLE for survival prospects; it involves the whole planet being covered with ice and snow, forming a reflective surface that sends most solar energy back into space instead of keeping enough of it around to warm up and start melting.  Snowball Earth phases last tens of millions of years, until volcanism builds up enough CO₂ in the atmosphere for the greenhouse effect to trigger melting - but the melting leads to a relatively abrupt switch from reflecting to absorbing solar energy, without removing the greenhouse gases, and that usually sends Earth abruptly into a Hothouse period.  We haven't had a Snowball Earth phase for the last 650 Million years.

Right now we're in an "Icehouse Earth" state, and have been for several million years.  During an Icehouse Earth period, we get "Glacials" or Ice ages, interrupted at 50k-100k year intervals by an "Interglacial" lasting 10K to 20K years.  For the last 11K years or so we've been in an Interglacial period (the Holocene), so the ice sheets that characterize an Icehouse Earth have been small and mostly limited to the polar regions.  Icehouse Earth tends to last until earth's orbital precession and chaotic factors cause the ice sheets to entirely melt, which destroys a regulatory mechanism by which coriolis-driven ocean currents act to regulate earth's temperature by moving heat energy back and forth from the poles to the equator. The end of this regulation usually results in a Greenhouse Earth, but, according to some theories, can also result in a Snowball earth state.

A Greenhouse Earth state would also be bad for our survival prospects, as it is something our species has no evolutionary experience with.  Greenhouse Earth is described as dry, windy, and unstable, with winters just as cold or barely colder, but summers considerably hotter than Icehouse Earth.  Like Icehouse Earths, Greenhouse Earths tend to last for millions of years, until orbital precession and random chaotic processes result in the formation of polar ice sheets at both poles that last for more than a century or two and start the regulatory process of Icehouse Earth back up.

So those are basically the three choices.  Some people are worried about transitioning out of an interglacial into a glacial phase but still within the Icehouse regime (the people talking about a new ice age).  But we can survive an ice age; it would suck but we've done it before.  Other people who are scared are envisioning the complete end of the current Icehouse era and wondering what our odds of survival in a Greenhouse Earth would be like.  That would suck too, and probably harder since we've never evolutionarily adapted to it.  People like me though, are pessimists and harbor dark suspicions and worry that we don't actually know what causes Snowball Earth eras to start. I wonder whether the end of Icehouse-style global temperature regulation will result in a bunch of wild oscillations settling on the near-certain death of our species in a Snowball Earth. I hope not, but I can't help wondering.

[tvbcof]

This discussion got stupid a long time ago so I really shouldn't be replying, but I'm doing it anyway....
...
So those are basically the three choices.  Some people are worried about transitioning out of an interglacial into a glacial phase...

We'll likely get hit by another large object before we need to worry about a major climate shift, and even if such a shift comes we'll have many generations to adapt.  It's unlikely that CO2 from fossil fuels will have any impact on anything on these major scales.  There simply doesn't seem to be enough of it available accd to Murry Salby who makes a pretty strong case for this as I see things.

Seems to me that what 'some people' are mostly worried about is how to turn weather events and/or minor climate variations, or the perceptions of them, into money.  A whole bunch more people are worried about such things because the former smaller group told them to be.

Half a billion years ago is quite a long time to be worried about having a repeat, but if you wish to, knock yourself out.  As Ken Keasey once said, "Don't make me take your bad trip."  The only vaguely plausible way I can see to create a major shift in the climate in an unusually short period of time would be to really really go to town with geo-engineering in an attempt to 'save the world'...and make a shit-load of money with a fleet of otherwise idle airliners and such of course.

[galdur]

If you want to worry about snowball Earth think Lake Toba.


This one is just 25 miles away

Indonesia: Mount Sinabung erupts spewing ash into the sky

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/indonesia-mount-sinabung-erupts-spewing-ash-into-sky-1506423

And:

Toba Volcano, according to reports in the Indonesian media, is presently producing large emissions of steam and the ground in the area around the volcano is giving off foul odors of gas. Locals have also reported feeling the ground hot under their feet. .....

http://www.inquisitr.com/2160555/indonesias-lake-toba-supervolcano-threatens-global-volcanic-winter-eruption-caused-mass-extinction-75-000-years-ago/

[Cryddit]

We'll likely get hit by another large object before we need to worry about a major climate shift, and even if such a shift comes we'll have many generations to adapt.  It's unlikely that CO2 from fossil fuels will have any impact on anything on these major scales. 

And yet those ice sheets that we count on for the regulatory effect, are getting smaller and smaller.....  We have less ice at the poles now than we've had at any time in the last half-million years, and if that regulatory effect goes, we're leaving Icehouse Earth.

[tvbcof]

We'll likely get hit by another large object before we need to worry about a major climate shift, and even if such a shift comes we'll have many generations to adapt.  It's unlikely that CO2 from fossil fuels will have any impact on anything on these major scales. 

And yet those ice sheets that we count on for the regulatory effect, are getting smaller and smaller.....  We have less ice at the poles now than we've had at any time in the last half-million years, and if that regulatory effect goes, we're leaving Icehouse Earth.

I assume you are talking in general terms.  Fine.  We seem to be at a warm spell near the top of the recent (last million years or so) sequence in inter-glaciations.  This one seems to have  not reached the ultimate spike noted prior but has had a longer duration.  I'd not be surprised if the ice caps reflected this.  I also would not be surprised if humans had some impact on things since this 'table top' attribute I mentioned spans the timeframe that humans turned into real farmers and firebugs.

The problem that 'social justice warriors' and their guiding hands have is that none of this stuff is attributable to fossil fuel utilization and that is where the money is at.  When they put effort into nixing the medieval warming period and 'hiding the decline' and such it destroys the very science we need to actually understand this stuff.  Using science is at least interesting and there is some chance that it could be genuinely valuable if some action is legitimately appropriate.  That is my chief complaint against your types.

---

One of many such graphs...most of them dubious to me since they seem to indicate a higher degree of precision than I feel is likely obtainable from proxy records:

[Wilikon]

We'll likely get hit by another large object before we need to worry about a major climate shift, and even if such a shift comes we'll have many generations to adapt.  It's unlikely that CO2 from fossil fuels will have any impact on anything on these major scales. 

And yet those ice sheets that we count on for the regulatory effect, are getting smaller and smaller.....  We have less ice at the poles now than we've had at any time in the last half-million years, and if that regulatory effect goes, we're leaving Icehouse Earth.

Camel Fossils Found In Arctic Suggest Ancient Creatures Roamed Region 3.5 Million Years Ago

Studies Portray Tropical Arctic in Distant Past


http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/01/science/earth/01climate.html?pagewanted=print&_r=0



Study: North Pole Once Was Tropical


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/study-north-pole-once-was-tropical/




Tropical Turtle Fossil Discovered in the High Arctic


http://www.wired.com/2009/02/tropical-turtle/


This discussion got stupid a long time ago, like in the last half-million years,  so I really shouldn't be replying, but I'm doing it anyway....



You are welcome anytime. Always. This thread has a carbon foot print of...

 

[Wilikon]

[galdur]

Norway – Coldest first half of June in 92 years

JUNE 17, 2015

“We are having the coldest June in 92 years here in middle of Norway,” says reader Tomas Idunno.

Quote translate using google translate:

“Coldest June in 92 years. You have every reason to complain about the weather. Trøndelag has not experienced such a cold first half of June since 1923.“Since the daily measurements of mean (average temperature through the day) began in Trondheim in 1870, it has been measured an even colder first half of June only once, 92 years ago.”
Maybe someone should tell the Pope.

http://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article11210577.ece

[galdur]

I wish NASA would come up with a map showing how The Blob will move from The Pacific to The North Atlantic to do something about that falling sea temperature.

[Wilikon]

French Government Warns Eating Nutella Causes Global Warming…

PARIS – France’s environment minister, Segolene Royal, has rankled the company that makes Nutella by urging the public to stop eating its irresistible chocolate hazelnut spread, saying it contributes to deforestation.

“We have to replant a lot of trees because there is massive deforestation that also leads to global warming. We should stop eating Nutella, for example, because it’s made with palm oil,” Royal said in an interview late Monday on the French television network Canal+.

“Oil palms have replaced trees, and therefore caused considerable damage to the environment,” she explained.

Nutella, she said, should be made from “other ingredients.”

The comments needled Ferrero, the giant Italian chocolate group that makes Nutella.

Without referring to Royal directly, the company issued a statement Tuesday saying it was aware of the environmental stakes and had made commitments to source palm oil in a responsible manner.

Ferrero gets nearly 80 percent of its palm oil from Malaysia. The rest of its supply comes from Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and Brazil.

Two and a half years ago, French senators tried to impose a 300 percent tax on palm oil, saying it was dangerously fattening and its cultivation was bad for the environment. The measure was defeated.



http://www.ticotimes.net/2015/06/16/stop-eating-nutella-urges-french-environment-minister

[galdur]

50,000 witches executed because they caused climate change – Video

JUNE 17, 2015

In this video, Dr. Sallie Baliunas, Staff Astrophysicist at the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,  discusses the Little Ice Age and people’s superstitious reactions to extreme weather.Dr. Baliunas, formerly the Deputy Director of the Mount Wilson Observatory, describes the commonly held belief – the “consensus,” if you will – that humans were responsible for climate change.

Dr. Baliunas on Weather Cooking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcAy4sOcS5M

[galdur]

Fast forward to the 21st century. Political nutbags and religious fruitcakes are still feeding the excessively gullible masses. The more things change the more they stay the same they said back then and at least some say still now.

[kencoles]

Only 2% of the science community deny climate change. This 2% are the fools of the community and/or are sufficiently appease by big oil to continue their flakiness.
The present media, such as it is, give a bigger % of pages to the deniers than the 97% (or the can't-make-up-their-minds) 1%.

[galdur]

Only 2% of the science community deny climate change. This 2% are the fools of the community and/or are sufficiently appease by big oil to continue their flakiness.
The present media, such as it is, give a bigger % of pages to the deniers than the 97% (or the can't-make-up-their-minds) 1%.

This is just nonsense. Nobody denies that the climate changes. It does so all the time, always has done. It´s the notion that human activity has anything meaningful to do with it that those outside of the global warming cult have problems with.

[tvbcof]

Only 2% of the science community deny climate change. This 2% are the fools of the community and/or are sufficiently appease by big oil to continue their flakiness.
The present media, such as it is, give a bigger % of pages to the deniers than the 97% (or the can't-make-up-their-minds) 1%.

The '97% of scientist' thing is utter crap and anyone who has a passing familiarity with various issues, definitions, disputes, etc, and who has familiarized themselves with the 'studies' from whence these figures came knows it.

Now, a fair percentages of 'climate scientists' may be prone to extol something which could be sufficiently contorted to mean something vaguely close to what the politicians and media propagandists try to say it means, but that's very akin to saying that 97% of Christian preachers agree that Christ died for our sins.  Basically, if you don't believe that (or claim to) you are transitioning to a new profession.