rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[farfiman]

By the way hitting $995 in bitstamp before backing down is not a legit crossing of $990 (the daily from 10.12.2013 is still higher). If we do not quickly go back up and smash $1k, this is very bearish and might have been the start of a multi-week downtrend.

EW analysts say that the higher it goes before topping over, the deeper it goes also. I think this was quite high, so will we see $300 also??

We can only hope

[F-bernanke]

By the way hitting $995 in bitstamp before backing down is not a legit crossing of $990 (the daily from 10.12.2013 is still higher). If we do not quickly go back up and smash $1k, this is very bearish and might have been the start of a multi-week downtrend.

EW analysts say that the higher it goes before topping over, the deeper it goes also. I think this was quite high, so will we see $300 also??

We can only hope

Yes, we can hope so we can scoop some more coins, but on the otherhand it will crush the confidence and the media will burn us down to the ground.

[tutkarz]

From history we know that bubbless are bigger than previous ones and time between them is shorter which in turn can lead to bubbless on top of each other. I would strongly advise to not sell bitcoins because you might not be able to buy them back cheaper any more especially if you want to buy big amounts. trend line can switch from linear to S curve and all your predictions will be failure.

[kehtolo]

Nice thread, enjoyed reading so far.
Glad I read it now, as it has re-enforced some of my own predictions/feelings on this past 'rally' - during which i did panic buy at ~$830
Sold now, as things are looking to be turning bearish IMO - and hope we see below 800 or 750.
Posting this so it is bookmarked for me.

[F-bernanke]

Nice thread, enjoyed reading so far.
Glad I read it now, as it has re-enforced some of my own predictions/feelings on this past 'rally' - during which i did panic buy at ~$830
Sold now, as things are looking to be turning bearish IMO - and hope we see below 800 or 750.
Posting this so it is bookmarked for me.

Hopefully you didn't sell all your holdings, always keep the bulk in cold storage.

[kehtolo]

Nice thread, enjoyed reading so far.
Glad I read it now, as it has re-enforced some of my own predictions/feelings on this past 'rally' - during which i did panic buy at ~$830
Sold now, as things are looking to be turning bearish IMO - and hope we see below 800 or 750.
Posting this so it is bookmarked for me.

Hopefully you didn't sell all your holdings, always keep the bulk in cold storage.

Of course! Perhaps i should have added I only trade with around 15% - the rest is of course in cold storage, and I'm not even going to touch it (for a long time yet), no matter how tempting it may be to increase profits by upping the multiplyer. I'll hopefully make some smart trades and this will follow in course. 

[Voodah]

By the way hitting $995 in bitstamp before backing down is not a legit crossing of $990 (the daily from 10.12.2013 is still higher). If we do not quickly go back up and smash $1k, this is very bearish and might have been the start of a multi-week downtrend.

EW analysts say that the higher it goes before topping over, the deeper it goes also. I think this was quite high, so will we see $300 also??

I don't know, my EW is saying we're we closing 4 and about to start wave 5 to 1150-1200 area, and then correction.

A triple top at 1240 could send us back to your trendline for a few feeks or months.

[rpietila]

trend line can switch from linear to S curve and all your predictions will be failure.

S-curve in an exponential chart is linear. The contestant is not the S-curve but the superexponential curve (bitcoin singularity/dollar hyperinflation), which would propel us to $1M this year.

I famously predicted we would reach $300k last year (we didn't). So perhaps this year we will make it If not, all of the trendlines under serious discussion point to $1M in 2017 the latest.

[rpietila]

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment (with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

[merkin51]

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

[Lewis2]

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment (with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

How likely do you think it is that there will be 250 billion dollars new investment? When I look at the news and general talk in my environment I have the feeling that the initial bitcoin craze is over...

[farfiman]

In 2012, the virgin investment into Bitcoin was about $25M.

In 2013, it was about $2,5B (a hundredfold).

If we have a similar growth now, it would mean 250 billion dollars new investment (with a similar amount of dishoarding to new castles and lambos), and bitcoin price in $80k range at the close of 2014.

This would be superexponential growth.

How likely do you think it is that there will be 250 billion dollars new investment? When I look at the news and general talk in my environment I have the feeling that the initial bitcoin craze is over...

Not even a drop in a bucket of the investment money in the world is in bitcoin yet.

[kehtolo]

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

+1 - I'd like to see them as well.

[libity]

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0

[kehtolo]

Can anyone post a link to rpietila's trendlines that are often referenced here? I can't seem to find them. Might be handy to have them in the OP.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.0

Thanks for that!

[rpietila]

How likely do you think it is that there will be 250 billion dollars new investment? When I look at the news and general talk in my environment I have the feeling that the initial bitcoin craze is over...

Not even a drop in a bucket of the investment money in the world is in bitcoin yet.

It is possible, but not likely to happen this year. I'd say 20%.

The most likely scenario in my books is that we continue in the exponential trend and the price rises to $3k-$13k, with the corresponding investment of 10-40 billion dollars. Even that is quite much money, and quite much more than in 2013.

[AlexM]

My observations is not TA but sentiment analysis. Most holders expect BTC to be $5,000-$10,000 at the end of the year. Lots of people have made stupid trades and lost coins or money so they are resolutely holding, or just gradually buying. From reading around on different forums they think the price may go down by $100-$500 at any point but have given up trying to profit from the dips, why bother when the price will be 5 or 10 times the current price within the next 12 months.

I also believe that there are a lot more off market trades going on.

[RAJSALLIN]

I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.

My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?

[rpietila]

I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.

My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?

It is currently the most reliable tool in my possession. The only other one that has given me edge is fibonacci retracement levels. Other than those two, it is just hunch (which must be interpreted correctly, ie. a "hunch to panic buy" is more often wrong ). I know that others use other kinds of analysis methods, but I don't know enough of them. Also my position is quite large to enter and exit at will, which means that the more long-term methods suit me better.

I did fine in 2011 by refusing to buy until the price had gone back below trend. Also the whole of 2012 was a stellar buy with no sell signals. 2013 was spot on.

The only thing the trendline method did not call was the top in 2011 (there was no trend yet, except a 6400x UP in 12 months). If it fails on this one, it will be the first actual failure. (I did call the top at $25 but did not have any coins to sell, so talk is cheap )

To elaborate what I would classify as failure: if the price at no point in 2014 goes at least -0.2 log units below the trend. It does not need to happen this month. This is no crystal ball, rather "some kind of magical gravitational force" that rewards those who understand its long-term nature and have the balls to wait.

[RAJSALLIN]

I personally feel that basing trades on the trend line alone is asking for trouble. It's not like some kind of magical gravitational force on the price. Well I guess it could be if there are enough people who are acting on it. But my point is that there is absolutely nothing that states we can't be above the trend line for a very long time like we were 2011 or bellow for a long time like we were in 2012.

My question to you rpietila, are you basing your bearish calls on anything else and do you mind sharing if so?

It is currently the most reliable tool in my possession. The only other one that has given me edge is fibonacci retracement levels. Other than those two, it is just hunch (which must be interpreted correctly, ie. a "hunch to panic buy" is more often wrong ). I know that others use other kinds of analysis methods, but I don't know enough of them. Also my position is quite large to enter and exit at will, which means that the more long-term methods suit me better.

I did fine in 2011 by refusing to buy until the price had gone back below trend. Also the whole of 2012 was a stellar buy with no sell signals. 2013 was spot on.

The only thing the trendline method did not call was the top in 2011 (there was no trend yet, except a 6400x UP in 12 months). If it fails on this one, it will be the first actual failure. (I did call the top at $25 but did not have any coins to sell, so talk is cheap )

To elaborate what I would classify as failure: if the price at no point in 2014 goes at least -0.2 log units below the trend. It does not need to happen this month. This is no crystal ball, rather "some kind of magical gravitational force" that rewards those who understand its long-term nature and have the balls to wait.

Fair enough. I think what's worrying about this last up-tick is the lack of volume, if anything I think this supports your theory of a re-test of the lows.