rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[bitrider]

Do any of you guys who only use "10% of coins for trading and 90% in cold storage" or whatever the ratio is find it frustrating every time you double up the 10% but missed the opportunity to double up the rest of the 90%? If I did such a thing it would feel like a huge loss to me.

Good question. This is exactly what I do. 90 cold/10 trade...I have a large enough stash of coins accumulated over the last couple of years, that I really do not feel I need to make much addition. So your question works the other way for me. I find the 10% trading account, keeps my greed/fear and active mind from disturbing my longer term investment strategy. I trade very cautiously with the 10% and only risk coins when I am very confident. For example I sold into fiat at the double top in December and bought back at about 450. Very good trade for me and made a nice addition to my cold store. And I did not sell anything when RP was making his case that we are going much lower after we recovered to midpoint.  Although I agree that we are likely going to slide lower for some time now, I not confident enough in this to risk coins - and I am comfortable riding out whatever consolidation we encounter. This all has served me well and has slowly increased my total coins. So far so good.

I rarely listen to the noise from the day traders and I discount most of what I read here as well, although I take it all in and appreciate it. I have been watching this market daily for 2.5 years, so I have a pretty good feel for the big patterns and moves, and have been trading equities and options for more than 10 years as a hobby.

Bottom line, it all depends on your current situation and goals. And of course how good a trader you are. So no advice from anyone can really address what you are facing yourself. We must all find a trading/investing style that matches our personality and skill/knowledge base. No one size fits all. That said, for most of us, holding coins is the best answer - and whatever you have to do to actually practice that is the key.

and if you don't now have the stash you think you need, I would suggest taking a second job or finding some other way of making extra cash to put into btc ASAP, rather than trading to build your holding. Despite all the smart people in this thread and others, only the best traders (and you know who you are) are able to do this consistently. Just MHO..

[cAPSLOCK]

In terms of market cap, just the Bitcoin currency (ignoring its obvious value as a payment network/p2p ledger) could roughly be compared to the current M2 USD supply (~$10 trillion) plus total value of gold mined on the planet (~$8 trillion). A $1MM BTC price would give a total possible market cap of ~$21 trillion, ignoring lost coins. Not too far off.

You are making my point for me.  Expecting bitcoin to have a value LARGER than USD M2 + All gold is definitely fantastic.

Keep in mind that $1MM USD may or may not be as valuable as you think in the future.  It's an arbitrary number.  1 XBT is worth 100,000 Yen right now but the right question is how much real purchasing power that represents.

You are also making my point, and what you describe would requite such social upheaval I personally hope it doesn't happen.

I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.

[aminorex]

Expecting bitcoin to have a value LARGER than USD M2 + All gold is definitely fantastic.

It's not fantastic if there are no USD.  The stock is not important to the value of a currency.  The circulating supply determines the "market cap".

[SlipperySlope]

I am personally a BTC bull, but I have a hard time imagining the sort of scenario where BTC is worth $1MM USD.  I feel that level of price would require the sort of social upending that would threaten the networks needed to keep BTC valuable.

Wrap your mind around the notion that Bitcoin is a superior currency to existing fiat and will replace it economically. Here are still-relevant reasons authored by Rick Falkvinge that appealed to me back in 2011. . .

The Target Value For Bitcoin Is Not Some $50 Or $100. It Is $100,000 To $1,000,000

Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part One - Unlawful Trade

Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part Two - International Trade

Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part Three - Merchant Trade

Bitcoin's Four Drivers: Part Four - Investment

[CoolStoryBro]

Hello guys,

I have a few questions which I think might help us all:

1) Maybe it would be little bit offtopic from your thread, but it's TA thread after all?

And in order to get quality TA you should have a proper tool for that.
What sites are you using for TA and why?

I think the best source for graphs (mostly for intraday, though) is bitcoinwisdom.com

though, there is several other projects which might be good too (but I didn't find a good use for it)
https://www.bigterminal.com/chart/currency/BTCUSD/   <- Gox based
https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD <- average BTC price
I'll add few other sites I have from home.

Still, these sites not good enough for analyzing historical data.
I tried to use MT4 terminal from BTC-e but they seem to have own limitations as well.

Bitcoinwisdom is great for analysis, especially with it volume tool. But you should be very cautious for the volume.
If candle was red, then they color up whole volume is red, while it's actually could be quite wrong (say, for the start of M15 candle someone  can buy 500 btc on "dry" market triggering price from 800 to 820  and if there is small order book, ex rate could actually go to 790 with like 150 BTC until end of the M15 preiod - in that way, all volume for M15 candle would be red, but actual volume was more "green").

Is there a website which tracks for the consolidated  "true" volume of trades?

2) Considering short term or intraday- looking for H1 chart for bitstamp(@bitcoinwisdom) - we can see there is bunch of big red candles with big volume but price didn't get lower. For me it seems like sellers don't want to crash price but rather allow it to get higher and sell in several portions, instead of big dump.

If that's correct, then we should expect a bigger dump - cause whales want to dump some coins on a better price before actual bigger dump.

From the other hand, these volumes could be quite irrelevant in a mid term. Whats your opinion?

[rpietila]

In terms of market cap, just the Bitcoin currency (ignoring its obvious value as a payment network/p2p ledger) could roughly be compared to the current M2 USD supply (~$10 trillion) plus total value of gold mined on the planet (~$8 trillion). A $1MM BTC price would give a total possible market cap of ~$21 trillion, ignoring lost coins. Not too far off.

You are making my point for me.  Expecting bitcoin to have a value LARGER than USD M2 + All gold is definitely fantastic.

As little as 8 months ago the value of gold alone ($300k) was considered insane by most. The thread outlining the $1M scenario (actually it is $5M but it is adequately triggered when the price reaches $1M) gives more background.

[rpietila]

and if you don't now have the stash you think you need, I would suggest taking a second job or finding some other way of making extra cash to put into btc ASAP, rather than trading to build your holding. Despite all the smart people in this thread and others, only the best traders (and you know who you are) are able to do this consistently. Just MHO..

I warmly recommend this also. If you are reading this, you know enough about bitcoin already. Now go to work, earn money and buy as many bitcoins as you can during the next 6-12 months. Then start reading forums again

[e4xit]

---snip--
What sites are you using for TA and why?
 --snip--

Here is my list, sure you will be able to find *something* useful in here...:

Marketdata - Bitcoin Chain

BTCWisdom
Bitcoinity
Bitcoin Watch
Bitcoin network graphs
Coinometrics
RTBTC
Coinorama
Bitcoin charts
Preev
Tradingview
Bitcoin ticker
Bitcoin Pulse
BTCLook
Biteasy (Block explorer)

You might like to start with trading hill and rtbtc from the sounds of it though?

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

What kind of influence might Overstock have on the price short/mid-term?

[aminorex]

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak.  It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

[bambou]

more use = more flow = more liquidity = more price discovery = less volatility = more confidence = more demand = higher price

FTFY.

Sounds credible/logical to me though

[SlipperySlope]

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak.  It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .



The diagram is shared here.

[thoughtfan]

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak.  It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .



The diagram is shared here.

I like that a lot thank you

[cAPSLOCK]

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak.  It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .


The diagram is shared here.

PFFFT.  You didn't really even try...  And  two dimensions is just so "pre ASIC".

[michaelGedi]

Re overstock et filia:

More use means more flow means more liquidity means more price discovery means less volatility means more confidence means more demand means higher price.

But it's a long chain, and any link can prove weak.  It's also a long pipeline and it takes time for inputs to be expressed as outputs.

I would organize the thoughtful situations you offer not as a path, but rather as a Bayesian Influence Diagram . . .


The diagram is shared here.

PFFFT.  You didn't really even try...  And  two dimensions is just so "pre ASIC".

much clearer, thank you

[TERA]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

[rpietila]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.


Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.


Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Has your confidence in 500ish boosted in the last days? It seems that right now we are following the April`s crash pattern. Lowest point maybe mid Feb.?

[rpietila]

Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?

Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.*

*Compared to the average dishoarding schedule.


Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra.

Has your confidence in 500ish boosted in the last days? It seems that right now we are following the April`s crash pattern. Lowest point maybe mid Feb.?

I have been busy with other matters, and have not updated the analysis on price. It is not a big deal really - if it goes to my buy zone, I wake up and see that I have bought. If not, I will keep the cash. I am not buying anything above 500 for sure, that zone is for newbies

[Ivanhoe]

Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )