rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Biodom]

According to Novogratz, there are 30000 bitcoin developers, but we are at a state of lull right now.
I see absolutely NO practical advances in bitcoin in the last 6 mo, except endless difficulty rise.
Wallets did not become easier to use, people do not significantly increase bitcoin usage; in fact, usage is essentially flat at best (since November), etc., etc.

Things may change later this year, but so far very little progress has been made. Despite dreams about 1000, 10000, 100000 often professsed on this forum and elsewhere, investment in bitcoin in the last 6 mo is losing money, drip by drip (unless you picked up all your BTC at the absolute bottom).

I am not a sceptic long term, but short term bitcoin is a relative disappointment (at least for me). I am holding all of my positions, but not thinking of buying any more.

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

[Wary]

How much coins did you buy, Torque, if it is not an indiscretion?

Actually, it is 

[sidhujag]

Oh, that's interesting.  Rather than rushing ahead of ourselves, we need to let the capabilities mature before pressing the message out.  Then we shouldn't be watching the exchange rate minute-by-minute.  That's different than I was thinking.  Thank you.  Hmm, what is our message until then?  When will we know it is time to unveil Bitcoin again for the masses?  Or are the capabilities going to come along one at a time in an uncoordinated fashion?

I'm afraid that usefulness is still lagging far behind current adoption.  We can talk all we want about the current merchant interest level, institutional interest level, etc.  But the fact remains that the "masses" still perceive bitcoin to have limited current usefulness to them.  Other than a few online shops, the places to spend bitcoin are still limited, especially to where the masses go to shop (whether online or brick-and-mortar).  The masses want to be able to make purchases at Amazon, Target, Walmart, IKEA, Starbucks, and their local grocery or store du jour.  They want to buy gas with it, pay their electricity and phone bill with it.  They want to back their 401ks with it, pay their rent with it, buy a car with it.  

Hell, after all these years I still can't even find a coffee shop or bar in my town that accepts bitcoin.  Not one.

Until merchants adopt bitcoin en masse, I'm afraid the "masses" are likely going to sit on the sidelines and wait.

We've still got a long way to go...

The market is still immature and we are all early adopters.. ppl hoping that it will happen tomorrow are clueless about how emerging tech starts... it takes up to 10 years for full scale adoption... and with what bitcoin hopes to do it may take longer because it will be a bigger change than other tech's.

[rpietila]

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

The question warrants some thinking.

- First of all, the trend is recalculated periodically, and if we are lagging the previous trend a lot, then it will be adjusted downwards, to prevent it going to the extreme so easily. Having a weighted trend would further stress this point and would be good because the 5.35-yr trend is already "slow to adapt".

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

- Third: not this trendline, but some of the others, have shown that going to -1 does not mean that Bitcoin is doomed. jl2012's trendline went there just when it was the optimal buy zone in late 2011.

- I don't believe that the trendline is the right tool for deciding Bitcoin's ultimate fate. If the fundamentals are intact, buying low relative to the trend is proven to be a good strategy and likewise selling high. Following the trendline alone does not give exit signals, which means that if the price goes to zero, you are among the holders. This is a deliberate design decision, and I follow it myself. The world is full of FUDsters, preying on your coins. Better tell them strictly that you only sell them when the price is (not even right but) high.

[btc6000]

...I don't believe that the trendline is the right tool for deciding Bitcoin's ultimate fate. If the fundamentals are intact, buying low relative to the trend is proven to be a good strategy and likewise selling high. Following the trendline alone does not give exit signals, which means that if the price goes to zero, you are among the holders. This is a deliberate design decision, and I follow it myself. The world is full of FUDsters, preying on your coins. Better tell them strictly that you only sell them when the price is (not even right but) high.

This trendline is what matters long-term:



Follow that and the price will come up naturally.

Cheers,

[Biodom]

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

[wachtwoord]

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

The (positive) oscillation does seem to dampen (he said based on his incredible 3 data points).

[SlipperySlope]

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

The Log10 deviation from trend was indeed inspired by rpietila, but the logistic, i.e. S-Curve trendline is my own hand-fit as of November 11, 2013. The value of -0.45 for May 6, 2013 is the lowest that was ever calculated by my model.

I bought some fractional coin at my local ATM yesterday and will do so every weekday this month, as I did last month.

[SlipperySlope]

This trendline is what matters long-term:



Follow that and the price will come up naturally.

Cheers,

Assuming, that the bitcoin price is one million USD at full adoption, here is the S-Curve from my model. Note that the previous bubbles are not detectable on the linear chart because we are far away from full adoption . . .

[hdbuck]

Assuming, that the bitcoin price is one million USD at full adoption, here is the S-Curve from my model. Note that the previous bubbles are not detectable on the linear chart because we are far away from full adoption . . .

oooooohhhhhhhh that one i like it very much
thank you

[Trolololo]

The 6 months resistance directive is acting now as support directive in the 1d Bitstamp linear chart:

[BitchicksHusband]

That's interesting Trolololo, so what does that tell us?

[Hen0xyd]

The 6 months resistance directive is acting now as support directive in the 1d Bitstamp linear chart:

Indeed, old resistance got already tested 3 times (click Play on the right to see updated prices) :   https://www.tradingview.com/v/JVzIzw0h/

[HeliKopterBen]

I would draw the lines a bit more like this.

It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point.  A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish. 

The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.

[thezerg]

I would draw the lines a bit more like this.

It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point.  A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish. 

The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.

Note that the last block halving happened approx (end Nov 2012) where you started your support line which is perhaps a reasonable justification for it as opposed to Tera's line (I call it the L0 -- it essentially projects the 2012 "quiet period" out as a measure of the baseline adoption, resulting in a ~$200 price today).

[HeliKopterBen]

I would draw the lines a bit more like this.

It seems to me BTC is at a critical inflection point.  A break below 400 would be bearish and a break above 550 would be bullish.  

The next few weeks should tell us which way this market wants to go.

Note that the last block halving happened approx (end Nov 2012) where you started your support line which is perhaps a reasonable justification for it as opposed to Tera's line (I call it the L0 -- it essentially projects the 2012 "quiet period" out as a measure of the baseline adoption, resulting in a ~$200 price today).

Good observation.  A break of the lower trendline I drew may portend a move to that level.  However, the current bear market is a bit over 5 months old, similar to the 2011 decline, only shallower.  IMO a rally is likely but confirmation is needed.

[Biodom]

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

The Log10 deviation from trend was indeed inspired by rpietila, but the logistic, i.e. S-Curve trendline is my own hand-fit as of November 11, 2013. The value of -0.45 for May 6, 2013 is the lowest that was ever calculated by my model.

I bought some fractional coin at my local ATM yesterday and will do so every weekday this month, as I did last month.

OP(SLSL), sorry i did not give you personally proper credit. My apologies.
That said, on the stock market you usually don't buy stocks at the trend low, but, perhaps BTC is a different beast altogether.

[BitchicksHusband]

Q to moderator-at what stage the trend would be considered broken (-0.5, -0.7, -1.0)? We are currently at all time low in the exp trend.

- Another thing: we are not really at ATL in the trend yet, in fact the average for all of 2012 was -0.444.

just on this point-I thought that this is based on your trendline (-0.45 yesterday).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

The Log10 deviation from trend was indeed inspired by rpietila, but the logistic, i.e. S-Curve trendline is my own hand-fit as of November 11, 2013. The value of -0.45 for May 6, 2013 is the lowest that was ever calculated by my model.

I bought some fractional coin at my local ATM yesterday and will do so every weekday this month, as I did last month.

OP(SLSL), sorry i did not give you personally proper credit. My apologies.
That said, on the stock market you usually don't buy stocks at the trend low, but, perhaps BTC is a different beast altogether.

Repeat after me:

BITCOIN IS NOT A STOCK.

Stocks don't jump up 10× in 60 days.  Bitcoin has.  And it typically does it at the end of one of these wedges.

[MNDan]

Repeat after me:

BITCOIN IS NOT A STOCK.

Stocks don't jump up 10× in 60 days.  Bitcoin has.  And it typically does it at the end of one of these wedges.

I'm ready. Make it so.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is the 2-year log chart of the number of transactions excluding the 100 most popular addresses from Blockchain.info. Appears like a double bottom in the past 30 days - especially if the moving average rises substantially above 60,000 transactions. The 100 most popular addresses are excluded because Satoshi Dice used non-economic dust transactions to indicate results of bets.