rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Biodom]

It is diffucult to calculate the unknowable probabilities.
As an example, Drake equation together with Kepler data suggest that life should be all over the Universe, but so far-no indication of intelligence being present anywhere else-Fermi's paradox. My point is-it is diffucult to calculate the true probability of an event when too many variables are involved.

[1714471092]

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[1714471092]

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[1714471092]

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[aminorex]

It is diffucult to calculate the unknowable probabilities.
As an example, Drake equation together with Kepler data suggest that life should be all over the Universe, but so far-no indication of intelligence being present anywhere else-Fermi's paradox. My point is-it is diffucult to calculate the true probability of an event when too many variables are involved.

If you were intelligent, would you call Earth?

[Biodom]

It is diffucult to calculate the unknowable probabilities.
As an example, Drake equation together with Kepler data suggest that life should be all over the Universe, but so far-no indication of intelligence being present anywhere else-Fermi's paradox. My point is-it is diffucult to calculate the true probability of an event when too many variables are involved.

If you were intelligent, would you call Earth?

I would text..[to Satoshi] 

[pa]

It is diffucult to calculate the unknowable probabilities.
As an example, Drake equation together with Kepler data suggest that life should be all over the Universe, but so far-no indication of intelligence being present anywhere else-Fermi's paradox. My point is-it is diffucult to calculate the true probability of an event when too many variables are involved.

If you were intelligent, would you call Earth?

As in Frank Herbert's "Dosadi Experiment," perhaps the Galactic civilization views us as so virulent that they're actively jamming signals that would allow us to infer their existence.

[Driv3n]

Some interesting discussion in here, thanks to everyone contributing.

[Sandia]

In Adam's thread, I posted this, but I'm looking for actual rational intelligent feedback on updated BTC risk factors, so I repost here:

On a scale of 0 to 100, my risk factors are something like this:

Satoshi coins - .001% probability or less, impact 10, duration 3 = .0003
ECDSA vulnerability - .01% or less, impact 10, duration 2 = .002
Implementation vulnerability - 1% or less, impact 8, duration 1 = .008
Bitstamp defection - .1% or less, impact 8, duration 2 = .016
Social apocalypse - 1% or less, impact 6, duration 10 = .6
Mining centralization - 5% or less, impact 5, duration 5 = 1.25
Nuclear war - 2% or less, impact 8, duration 10 = 1.6
US AML Fungibility crisis - 20% or less, impact 9, duration 10 = 18
unknown unknown - NaN

Being rational, a hodler should try to plan for the risks, starting with the largest.  How do we deal with the US fungibility issue?
Do you see this as forcing ID to address mapping?  White- and black-listing addresses?

Is it time to anonymize our coins?  Would anonymizing the coins be likely to put us on the blacklist?

Personally, I like privacy.  Right now, there are too many people who can map me to my addresses.  I ought to fix that.

[Miz4r]

It is diffucult to calculate the unknowable probabilities.
As an example, Drake equation together with Kepler data suggest that life should be all over the Universe, but so far-no indication of intelligence being present anywhere else-Fermi's paradox. My point is-it is diffucult to calculate the true probability of an event when too many variables are involved.

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

[MatTheCat]

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

Or perhaps 'we' have been visited, and studied by more advanced lifeforms tens of thousands of years ago, and modern man is the result of a little alien manipulation on a 'naturally evolving' ape species. Perhaps this is why modern man is alone in both his tendency and ability to exploit and detach himself from the environment which ultimately created him and sustains him.

This 'revelation' of being part alien came to me on a DMT trip. Although it seemed realer than real at the time, I don't know if its true or not. If it were true, how would we possibly know or 'proev' it, if this alien entity operated on a completely different plane of reality and time scale from what we can comprehend? Would a soldier ant in an ant colony in some university research station be able to even begin to fathom the existence of the teams of scientists who were responsible for ensuring the foundation of the ant colony (perhaps genetically engineered) or what their objectives might be? Of course not.

[Biodom]

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

This 'revelation' of being part alien came to me...

I don't know......
However, every human carries on average 2.5% neanderthal DNA with some outliers 5% or above.
I believe that Ozzie has the high percentage, which he is very proud of...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcoweoZ6jpM

On a more serious note:
Multicellularity has evolved independently at least 46 times (on earth)
Eye (an organ of sight) has evolved independently 40-65 times
True Intelligence with sustained ability to create and manipulate environment-only ONCE in one or two primate species
If something happens just once-you don't know the probability of this event because of the observer bias. It could be 1:100000000000 chance or even lower.

[YogoH]

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

Or perhaps 'we' have been visited, and studied by more advanced lifeforms tens of thousands of years ago, and modern man is the result of a little alien manipulation on a 'naturally evolving' ape species. Perhaps this is why modern man is alone in both his tendency and ability to exploit and detach himself from the environment which ultimately created him and sustains him.

This 'revelation' of being part alien came to me on a DMT trip. Although it seemed realer than real at the time, I don't know if its true or not. If it were true, how would we possibly know or 'proev' it, if this alien entity operated on a completely different plane of reality and time scale from what we can comprehend? Would a soldier ant in an ant colony in some university research station be able to even begin to fathom the existence of the teams of scientists who were responsible for ensuring the foundation of the ant colony (perhaps genetically engineered) or what their objectives might be? Of course not.

I've had similar feelings on smoked DMT as well.   My most memorable trip though was on Savlia. This was my only decent trip on salvia actually and I dont recommend it.  Anyway, I turned into a little box and so did everything around it me. The boxes started to assemble all around me in all directions as I was a floating box at this point.  The boxes started to spell out the word Humanity in front of me, I felt this crazy urge to find my place in "humanity."  I rushed forward trying to find my spot but I couldn't find my place in Humanity. I felt like I died, things melted and this reality started to fizzle back. I was on the floor and my brain was spinning to fast I don't remember what I was thinking just what It felt like. It felt like a lifetime but it was only 5 minutes.  


Sorry that wasn't relevant at all.

[wobber]

Salvia? Is that think smokable? I make tea out of it and no effects.

[YogoH]

Salvia? Is that think smokable? I make tea out of it and no effects.

Yes smoke it, but you need to get good quality 50x+ concentrate.  ALSO I DONT RECOMMEND IT. You can look up youtube videos of people on it. Most dont enjoy it.

good example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHXcEcwRKqo

[MatTheCat]

Salvia? Is that think smokable? I make tea out of it and no effects.

Yes smoke it, but you need to get good quality 50x+ concentrate.  ALSO I DONT RECOMMEND IT. You can look up youtube videos of people on it. Most dont enjoy it.

good example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHXcEcwRKqo

Fuck me!

What a cracking bunch of lads they are! Never tried Salvia, but I wouldn't want of those arseholes anywhere near me and a DMT hit.

[zimmah]

How did we get on the topic of drugs, instead of TA?

[molecular]

How did we get on the topic of drugs, instead of TA?

I think it started with It's all about Sharing saying "As Terrence McKenna said, We are a part of Nature, we come from it." on June 15th.

[DieJohnny]

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

Or perhaps 'we' have been visited, and studied by more advanced lifeforms tens of thousands of years ago, and modern man is the result of a little alien manipulation on a 'naturally evolving' ape species. Perhaps this is why modern man is alone in both his tendency and ability to exploit and detach himself from the environment which ultimately created him and sustains him.

This 'revelation' of being part alien came to me on a DMT trip. Although it seemed realer than real at the time, I don't know if its true or not. If it were true, how would we possibly know or 'proev' it, if this alien entity operated on a completely different plane of reality and time scale from what we can comprehend? Would a soldier ant in an ant colony in some university research station be able to even begin to fathom the existence of the teams of scientists who were responsible for ensuring the foundation of the ant colony (perhaps genetically engineered) or what their objectives might be? Of course not.

Life on earth is 3.5 billion years old, the life of the universe is 17 billion years. Before our star was even born life could have existed elsewhere for 13 billion years!!!

Think of what we have discovered about DNA and life in a mere 100 years of modern science. Now fast forward even 1 billion years from now!!!

It is more probable than not that we are simply an experiment in creation by what we either call Aliens or Gods. The religious prefer God because they have no other explanation for it. In a billion years will we have harnessed the knowledge of the suns, the galaxy, DNA, life itself? Will we not be able to travel through space at our will? Will we not be Gods to others? Of course we will. We have historical proof, Columbus was a God to the Americas.

Earth is a fish bowl, a petri dish, a scientific experiment, we are the subjects, for now.

[Dotto]

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

Or perhaps 'we' have been visited, and studied by more advanced lifeforms tens of thousands of years ago, and modern man is the result of a little alien manipulation on a 'naturally evolving' ape species. Perhaps this is why modern man is alone in both his tendency and ability to exploit and detach himself from the environment which ultimately created him and sustains him.

This 'revelation' of being part alien came to me on a DMT trip. Although it seemed realer than real at the time, I don't know if its true or not. If it were true, how would we possibly know or 'proev' it, if this alien entity operated on a completely different plane of reality and time scale from what we can comprehend? Would a soldier ant in an ant colony in some university research station be able to even begin to fathom the existence of the teams of scientists who were responsible for ensuring the foundation of the ant colony (perhaps genetically engineered) or what their objectives might be? Of course not.

Life on earth is 3.5 billion years old, the life of the universe is 17 billion years. Before our star was even born life could have existed elsewhere for 13 billion years!!!

Think of what we have discovered about DNA and life in a mere 100 years of modern science. Now fast forward even 1 billion years from now!!!

It is more probable than not that we are simply an experiment in creation by what we either call Aliens or Gods. The religious prefer God because they have no other explanation for it. In a billion years will we have harnessed the knowledge of the suns, the galaxy, DNA, life itself? Will we not be able to travel through space at our will? Will we not be Gods to others? Of course we will. We have historical proof, Columbus was a God to the Americas.

Earth is a fish bowl, a petri dish, a scientific experiment, we are the subjects, for now.

Well explained. Totally agree.

[phatsphere]

Columbus was a God to the Americas.

your posting is fine, but not this part. columbus was a cruel slave trader. he started a massive exploitation of people, slave trade with small girls for sex, introduced bad diseases and much more.

http://latinamericanhistory.about.com/od/thevoyagesofcolumbus/a/09columbustruth.htm (and much more)

most of the "americans" do not celebrate columbus day at all, rather, they hate that day.

and about discovering america, the name you should have in your head is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leif_Erikson

[Miz4r]

I believe the Universe is absolutely teeming with (intelligent) life, but not all life is in the form we can see or recognize yet. However I think we will make great discoveries in this matter within the next 100 years which will turn our entire world view upside down, if we don't kill ourselves beforehand that is. I actually wouldn't be surprised if we are already being visited, studied and observed by more advanced forms of life, and that they're keeping a low profile on purpose.

Or perhaps 'we' have been visited, and studied by more advanced lifeforms tens of thousands of years ago, and modern man is the result of a little alien manipulation on a 'naturally evolving' ape species. Perhaps this is why modern man is alone in both his tendency and ability to exploit and detach himself from the environment which ultimately created him and sustains him.

This 'revelation' of being part alien came to me on a DMT trip. Although it seemed realer than real at the time, I don't know if its true or not. If it were true, how would we possibly know or 'proev' it, if this alien entity operated on a completely different plane of reality and time scale from what we can comprehend? Would a soldier ant in an ant colony in some university research station be able to even begin to fathom the existence of the teams of scientists who were responsible for ensuring the foundation of the ant colony (perhaps genetically engineered) or what their objectives might be? Of course not.

Sounds possible, people who claim to have been abducted or contacted by alien beings are saying a similar thing as you here. But yeah it's hard to proof unless those beings decide to make themselves visible to the public and give an open press conference to explain everything to us. I've always felt that the reality bubble we humans live in and experience is only a small bubble within a much bigger reality we can't even begin to fathom (yet). Like a fish in the water can't even begin to comprehend things like planets, stars and galaxies maybe we can't even begin to comprehend other things that for other more advanced life forms seem pretty obvious. We humans are able to expand our own reality bubble though, like we used to know nothing about stars and galaxies either. Maybe one day things like telepathy and moving through other dimensions will be just as normal to us as is riding a car now.

I never used DMT myself but I do remember an LSD trip where I was convinced I had broken my own reality and I was stuck in my own personal hell forever. Time stopped being fluid and chronological and felt like a shattered piece of glass, I was constantly being flung back and forth in time and saw very quick sketches of what was going on around me but it happened really fast and I could make no logical sense of anything at the time. It was extremely confusing and disorienting, losing one's grip on reality like that is probably one of the worst things that can happen to a conscious person. Some of those quick sketches I remember seeing at the beginning of my trip actually happened somewhere at the end according to my friends who were with me at the time, and vice versa, it was all just a jumbled mess until I finally came out of it 2,5 hours later. This trip made me think about how consciousness and time are very closely connected, and how little we humans know about these things. Probably just as much as fish know about our sun and other galaxies.

[Biodom]

Life on earth is 3.5 billion years old, the life of the universe is 17 billion years. Before our star was even born life could have existed elsewhere for 13 billion years!!!

Think of what we have discovered about DNA and life in a mere 100 years of modern science. Now fast forward even 1 billion years from now!!!

It is more probable than not that we are simply an experiment in creation by what we either call Aliens or Gods. The religious prefer God because they have no other explanation for it. In a billion years will we have harnessed the knowledge of the suns, the galaxy, DNA, life itself? Will we not be able to travel through space at our will? Will we not be Gods to others? Of course we will. We have historical proof, Columbus was a God to the Americas.

Earth is a fish bowl, a petri dish, a scientific experiment, we are the subjects, for now.

Universe is 13.8 bil years old, not 17 bil
Life on earth is 3.8 bil years old

However, the rest of the post is pure speculation. There is no evidence for or against it.
We need more data, but the simplest analysis suggests that IF intelligent life was widespread, Earth would be colonized long time ago (probably hundreds of millions of years if not billions) just as almost every little island in the Pacific was colonized. In fact, it has been shown that it would take ONLY 4-5 mil years to completely colonize the galaxy once the spread begins.