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[HellDiverUK]

All this ROI talk assumes BTC will stay at $120.  As difficulty increases, I'm sure price will increase.  Just as it did when CPUs were becoming useless and GPUs were coming on strong. 

Look back in the forum, you'll see people saying GPUs will never ROI.  Yet, they did.  Even when I stated mining back in November 12 I made enough money (mined BTC converted to fiat) to pay for the GPUs, the machines the GPUs were in, and the electricity needed to run them.  THEN I sold the GPUs for basically the same as I paid for them.  That money I ploughed in to ASICs.

With my electricity effectively free, anything I mine - anything at all I can sell for fiat.

So, I'm really confused by the 'not making ROI' argument, because it's plain wrong.

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[kano]

No that's terrible logic. If you don't make back your initial investment in btc you haven't ROI'd and would have been better off just buying and holding btc.

As I have pointed out elsewhere ... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270573.msg3056704#msg3056704
If you got an AsicMinerUSB back on the 14-May ... up to today it would have so far made ... less than 0.9BTC (PPS mining expected value)
I'm pretty sure no one got them before the 14-May ...

I made up a little spreadsheet for the ones I have.
I got one for 0BTC on 13-May and 2 for 1.1BTC on 2-Aug

Total PPS mining expected BTC generated so far ... 1.2271313318BTC - 1.1BTC = 0.1271313318BTC
(the expected is a slight over estimate)

Hmm I think I let my time out for too cheap working on these AMUs - Total ~$12 for all the work I've done LOL

(Edit: and I ignored electricity cost)

You are still forgetting 0.1BTC coupons. Everyone who got USB miner for 1BTC and more, will get another one for 0.1BTC. Also USB miners will be profitable (with electricity at $0.15/kWh) until difficulty hits 3 BILLION, that's quite a few PETA hashes

For those who got 0.1BTC coupons - what did they pay for the other ones?

There's no need to guess and pretend it's going to do well, it's quite simple - make a spread sheet one per row with the dates of the difficulty change dates and the diff value.
Put 335 for the MH/s it will do
A calculated elapsed time (in seconds) column and then
BTC = MH/s * 10^6 / 2^32 * elapsed / Difficulty * 25
Then for each row you will see how much BTC it should have made (PPS Expected) for that row.
Add them up.
My date/times are only accurate to 5 blocks so can be late by up to 4 blocks (giving a slightly higher expected BTC)
The most interesting thing I see is the amount each diff change ...

Code:

Block  Time       Date       Time     Elapsed BTC          MHs Diff
236080 1368490097 05/14/2013 00:08:17                      335 11187257.46
237890 1369501849 05/25/2013 17:10:49 1011752 0.1763499712 335 12153411.7
239905 1370442546 06/05/2013 14:29:06  940697 0.1509303237 335 15605632.68
241920 1371418654 06/16/2013 21:37:34  976108 0.1219667485 335 19339258.27
243940 1372519410 06/29/2013 15:23:30 1100756 0.1109880452 335 21335329.11
245955 1373506149 07/11/2013 01:29:09  986739 0.0901836693 335 26162875.68
247970 1374517667 07/22/2013 18:27:47 1011518 0.0753898870 335 31256960.72
249985 1375527551 08/03/2013 10:59:11 1009884 0.0630013273 335 37392766.13
252000 1376417490 08/13/2013 18:11:30  889939 0.0464085074 335 50810339.04
254020 1377355438 08/24/2013 14:43:58  937948 0.0359957829 335 65750060.14
       1378087200 09/02/2013 02:00:00  731762 0.0217019447 335	

Last diff was ~30%, next diff is going to be ~30% again ...

... also ... try my calculator page - with 20% and 30% ... and 1000 days
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php

[kano]

All this ROI talk assumes BTC will stay at $120.  As difficulty increases, I'm sure price will increase.  Just as it did when CPUs were becoming useless and GPUs were coming on strong. 

Look back in the forum, you'll see people saying GPUs will never ROI.  Yet, they did.  Even when I stated mining back in November 12 I made enough money (mined BTC converted to fiat) to pay for the GPUs, the machines the GPUs were in, and the electricity needed to run them.  THEN I sold the GPUs for basically the same as I paid for them.  That money I ploughed in to ASICs.

With my electricity effectively free, anything I mine - anything at all I can sell for fiat.

So, I'm really confused by the 'not making ROI' argument, because it's plain wrong.

But you are missing the actual point.
If you bought X BTC, to buy an AM device but instead simply kept the BTC, you would be ahead unless the device was able to generate more than X BTC - which for most people, it wont.
So for most people it is indeed a guaranteed loss of BTC - ignoring what other gains or losses you have converting that BTC back to fiat.
Whatever those other issues are, however, the point is you will most likely have ... less BTC ... and even worse, you will get that less BTC back over a long period of time.

[HellDiverUK]

But you are missing the actual point.
If you bought X BTC, to buy an AM device but instead simply kept the BTC, you would be ahead unless the device was able to generate more than X BTC - which for most people, it wont.
So for most people it is indeed a guaranteed loss of BTC - ignoring what other gains or losses you have converting that BTC back to fiat.
Whatever those other issues are, however, the point is you will most likely have ... less BTC ... and even worse, you will get that less BTC back over a long period of time.

Yes, I get your point now.  I personally didn't buy BTC - the BTC I used as mined in the past, or bought with fiat obtained when I sold BTC during the bug Cypress/Greece bubble.

Yes, buying these things using fiat, expecting to get your money back is probably a poor idea.

[mdude77]

All this ROI talk assumes BTC will stay at $120.  As difficulty increases, I'm sure price will increase.  Just as it did when CPUs were becoming useless and GPUs were coming on strong. 

Look back in the forum, you'll see people saying GPUs will never ROI.  Yet, they did.  Even when I stated mining back in November 12 I made enough money (mined BTC converted to fiat) to pay for the GPUs, the machines the GPUs were in, and the electricity needed to run them.  THEN I sold the GPUs for basically the same as I paid for them.  That money I ploughed in to ASICs.

With my electricity effectively free, anything I mine - anything at all I can sell for fiat.

So, I'm really confused by the 'not making ROI' argument, because it's plain wrong.

But you are missing the actual point.
If you bought X BTC, to buy an AM device but instead simply kept the BTC, you would be ahead unless the device was able to generate more than X BTC - which for most people, it wont.
So for most people it is indeed a guaranteed loss of BTC - ignoring what other gains or losses you have converting that BTC back to fiat.
Whatever those other issues are, however, the point is you will most likely have ... less BTC ... and even worse, you will get that less BTC back over a long period of time.

As I said in the cgminer thread when you said "you'll never get your BTC back".  Never is a long time.  These things appear to be durable.  With little electric usage, they might still be working in 10 years.

M

[mdude77]

As I said in the cgminer thread when you said "you'll never get your BTC back".  Never is a long time.  These things appear to be durable.  With little electric usage, they might still be working in 10 years.

Doesn't matter either.

Since your reward is going down all the time, you might make 0.9999999999999... and never 1.

I'm not sure what you're point is?  Are you a fortune teller like Kano, and can predict the future?

Should we all give up mining because we might never recoup our cost in BTC?  You go first!

M

[mdude77]

Here is a drawing:

Nice.  Where's the USD equivalent part?  That's the important part.

M

[mdude77]

Nice.  Where's the USD equivalent part?  That's the important part.

No it isn't because you can always buy and hold bitcoins and make a bigger profit.

How many times does this have to be explained?

How many times do I have to say it?  I don't buy bitcoins.  I'm a miner.  I have miners, and I'm still making a profit.  How are you coming along?  USD value is what's important to me.  What part don't you understand?

M

[kano]

Nice.  Where's the USD equivalent part?  That's the important part.

No it isn't because you can always buy and hold bitcoins and make a bigger profit.

How many times does this have to be explained?

How many times do I have to say it?  I don't buy bitcoins.  I'm a miner.  I have miners, and I'm still making a profit.  How are you coming along?  USD value is what's important to me.  What part don't you understand?

M

Read again
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=49417.msg3062054#msg3062054

But this time change the word 'bought' to 'mined'

Same result.

[mdude77]

How many times do I have to say it?  I don't buy bitcoins.  I'm a miner.  I have miners, and I'm still making a profit.  How are you coming along?  USD value is what's important to me.  What part don't you understand?

This is irrelevant, screaming "I'm a miner" does not change the fact that you could earn more money in USD terms by not buying miners.
And if the value of bitcoins goes down, you'll just lose more by mining too.

So by mining, you're making a bet that BTC/USD will go up a lot to make a profit in USD terms; if you just held it the bet would not have to be as high; and you're dead set on selling them for USD.

And what's going to pay the bills while I sit on my BTC?  I'm not an investor.  I don't have bucketloads of money sitting around that I can "invest" in things that'll some how turn more money.  (If I did, I wouldn't be buying BTC or ASICs.)  Like many others, I started with fiat for GPUs.  Eventually some of the output of that I turned into the only ASIC I could afford.  I'm still making a profit every month, even with the GPUs I still have (mind you, not mining BTC with them).  Yes, I could have sat on that BTC.  But I didn't.  I now have ASIC miners.  Will they come out ahead in the end?  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  But that are generating money every month and earning their keep, more than sitting on BTC would.

Like every part of mining, it's a gamble.  If I wasn't already ahead of the game when I bought the ASICs, I might have a gave up.  But I didn't, and here I am.  USD is what matters to me, because I get USD every month to pay the bills.  Despite your claims to contrary, you can not predict the future.  I believe will make BTC (after electricity), and hence USD, every day from my ASICs for a very long time.  Sitting on BTC does none of that. 

Does that explain my position anymore?  For reference, I'm not screaming any of this any more than I did my prior post.

M

[mdude77]

It explains that you are deluding yourself and refuse to do any calculation.

We have a difference of opinion.  That's acceptable.

In retrospect, if I could predict the future, the only thing I would have done different is traded my BTC when it was worth $200USD+, and then bought the miners when BTC was < $100USD.  But I'm not able to predict the future.  

You gamble your way, I'll gamble mine.  I like seeing BTC going into USD, not the other way around.

M

EDIT: Also, if everyone acted the way you suggest, it wouldn't work for any of you.  Everyone can't buy BTC and sit on it and expect it to go up.  And folks do have to mine, otherwise your BTC is worthless.  I used my little BTC for the only ASICs I could afford.  Again, if I could have predicted the future, I would have pre-ordered one of the first round of Avalons. 

[kano]

...
And what's going to pay the bills while I sit on my BTC?
...

But that doesn't even make sense.
If you have 10BTC, giving it to someone else for mining hardware only delays you getting it back ... and most likely getting back less than 10BTC, unless you get mining hardware that can generate 10BTC or more over time.

Also, there is no logic to say that they are earning their keep.
They are most likely losing BTC for you.

Sitting on 10BTC, but converting it at the same rate you are mining is the same as mining it.
The only difference, is that you are guaranteed to be able to convert 10BTC - whereas with AM hardware you are most likely (i.e. MOST people) will not get 10BTC back.

Anyone who paid 1.99 BTC for them will NEVER get that back mining PPS or equivalent.
That's not a maybe, that pretty much a certainty.
I got one on 13-May, BTC cost 0, that has so far made ~0.89BTC ... it will not make another 1.1BTC ... without any doubt.

Yes you could say there are some exceedingly unlikely scenarios that could produce 1.1BTC more PPS mining, but hell I could also then include unlikely things like being hit by a truck ensuring it wouldn't happen (actually I have once before been hit by a truck, my motorcycle lost that battle ) but that's just trying to make up unlikely reasons for making a bad choice buying AM hardware that is VERY unlikely to ever return their BTC cost.

[HellDiverUK]

So, kano, what you're really saying is mining BTC is a waste of time, so all the time you invested in writing cgminer is therefore a total waste of time?

[mdude77]

But that doesn't even make sense.
If you have 10BTC, giving it to someone else for mining hardware only delays you getting it back ... and most likely getting back less than 10BTC, unless you get mining hardware that can generate 10BTC or more over time.

Also, there is no logic to say that they are earning their keep.
They are most likely losing BTC for you.

Sitting on 10BTC, but converting it at the same rate you are mining is the same as mining it.

I haven't done the math, but let's say BTC has to be at $25 USD or higher for me to make more than I do in electric costs.  You don't know for sure that BTC is going to continue to rise.  If you assume that, then yes, your argument holds true.  But if it doesn't, and drops to $50, I'm still making money.  And the rest of you who bought at $100, how much are you making?

The only difference, is that you are guaranteed to be able to convert 10BTC - whereas with AM hardware you are most likely (i.e. MOST people) will not get 10BTC back.

Anyone who paid 1.99 BTC for them will NEVER get that back mining PPS or equivalent.
That's not a maybe, that pretty much a certainty.
I got one on 13-May, BTC cost 0, that has so far made ~0.89BTC ... it will not make another 1.1BTC ... without any doubt.

As I said more than once, I don't care about the BTC return.  I care about the USD return.

M

[mdude77]

So, kano, what you're really saying is mining BTC is a waste of time, so all the time you invested in writing cgminer is therefore a total waste of time?

He's talking about a particular miner at a particular price.
Some miners are/used to be profitable.

Why are you people so dense?

Whatever dude.  I'm making a profit with mine.  Month by month, when the electric bill comes in, I have more than enough USD equivalent to pay for the electricity used.

M

[kano]

So, kano, what you're really saying is mining BTC is a waste of time, so all the time you invested in writing cgminer is therefore a total waste of time?

Actually yes I wasted way too much time on the silly AM USBs
So far for all my trouble I've probably made ~0.1271313318 BTC profit mining on AM USBs
Oh well - lucky I'm a dev and I've made more BTC from the other hardware I got to cover all the time I've spent on AM USB hardware ... and the time I've spent on the other hardware ...

[kano]

...

The only difference, is that you are guaranteed to be able to convert 10BTC - whereas with AM hardware you are most likely (i.e. MOST people) will not get 10BTC back.

Anyone who paid 1.99 BTC for them will NEVER get that back mining PPS or equivalent.
That's not a maybe, that pretty much a certainty.
I got one on 13-May, BTC cost 0, that has so far made ~0.89BTC ... it will not make another 1.1BTC ... without any doubt.

As I said more than once, I don't care about the BTC return.  I care about the USD return.

M

Which is EXTREMELY likely less than if you didn't buy AM USBs

[HellDiverUK]

Oh well - lucky I'm a dev and I've made more BTC from the other hardware I got to cover all the time I've spent on AM USB hardware ... and the time I've spent on the other hardware ...

'All that time' and you still use the wrong USB drivers?  

 

[kano]

Oh well - lucky I'm a dev and I've made more BTC from the other hardware I got to cover all the time I've spent on AM USB hardware ... and the time I've spent on the other hardware ...

'All that time' and you still use the wrong USB drivers?  

 

Lucky the 'wrong' USB drivers are the ONLY USB drivers that will work on some of the hardware.

[mdude77]

We perfectly understand this, and already told you won't make as much USD with mining over buying bitcoins.
Moreover, you're likely to lose USD by mining if BTC/USD value does not go up fast enough.

You can't predict the future.  I can't either.  You gamble by buying BTC.  I hope it pays off for you.  I'm gambling with my erupters.  I have them, and no matter how much griping you guys do about "you would have made more by buying BTC", I'm not going back in time and changing my decision.

As for the numbers, go here:

http://dustcoin.com/mining

I have 22 erupters at the moment (7.3gh/s).  Electricity is $0.06/kwh.  They use 2.5W a piece, total of 55W of power being drawn.  As of now I'm making $243 a month after electricity at current USD.  Factors to consider that I'm not factoring in:

- difficulty is higher than it was a month ago
- USD price is higher than it was a month ago
- I didn't measure the power usage of the erupter, going by stated value
- I don't have a way of measuring how much power the host system is using.  There are GPUs on there well that have been running fine for months, I'm not about to disturb the setup.

I'm sure you'll point out any errors in my math if there are any.

M

EDIT: When my next 11 arrive (coupons!) I'll be making $367/month.