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Author Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers  (Read 829329 times)
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eleuthria
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September 28, 2013, 07:18:11 AM
 #3881

Okay, after playing with it, I went with a log scale on the graph Smiley.

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organofcorti
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September 28, 2013, 07:32:05 AM
 #3882

One thing I think the chart will highlight is how PPLNS smooths variance.  You won't see big spikes/cliffs of luck that only last a short burst and go way positive/way negative.  Instead you'll see it trend positive for a while, then negative, since PPLNS is designed to basically even out per-round variance by stretching it over the last N shares (in this case, broken up into shifts).

That's a great chart - the only comment I have is that you should probably have it on a log scale rather than linear - on your scale luck can be infinitely high, but can not reach 0. Using a linear scale gives more weight to the positive luck.



Bad luck is already going to be disproportionately represented on a graph due to bad luck being defined as "long time without blocks", so either way it's going to be biased.  

Well, that's another problem with averaging luck over time instead of blocks. Over a longish period of time there's no significant effect, but over a day averaged luck will be, on average, a few percent lower than the real luck. The only way around that problem is to average over "n" blocks and but label it with dates. The only problem is changing the number of blocks over which the luck is averaged if the pool loses or gains large percentages of the network.


Edit:
Okay, after playing with it, I went with a log scale on the graph Smiley.


Disregard most of the last part - I have another look at your chart and it already is labelled with blocks solved. Sorry about that.

Anyway, having the x axis scaled to blocks solved and the y-axis log scaled means that luck will be represented without bias in either direction. Nice job, mate.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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eleuthria
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September 28, 2013, 07:36:35 AM
 #3883

Disregard most of the last post - I have another look at your chart and it already is labelled with blocks solved. Sorry about that.

Anyway, having the x axis scaled to blocks solved and the y-axis log scaled means that luck will be represented without bias in either direction. Nice job, mate.


X-axis is actually not scaled to blocks solved.  Y-axis is the luck (% of payout vs expectation), X-axis is shift ID (roughly time since shifts are normally the same length).

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organofcorti
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September 28, 2013, 01:07:19 PM
 #3884

Disregard most of the last post - I have another look at your chart and it already is labelled with blocks solved. Sorry about that.

Anyway, having the x axis scaled to blocks solved and the y-axis log scaled means that luck will be represented without bias in either direction. Nice job, mate.


X-axis is actually not scaled to blocks solved.  Y-axis is the luck (% of payout vs expectation), X-axis is shift ID (roughly time since shifts are normally the same length).

OK, you could keep it as is but scale the distance between the tick-marks to the number of blocks solved within a shift - that would make the luck graph as accurate as possible and eliminate the influence of the increased round durations during times of bad luck. It might make the charts less intuitively understandable though, and I'm not sure how easy it is to create a custom scale transform in js.




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BitBlitz
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September 28, 2013, 05:08:20 PM
 #3885

X-axis is actually not scaled to blocks solved.  Y-axis is the luck (% of payout vs expectation), X-axis is shift ID (roughly time since shifts are normally the same length).
Good stuff...  Is the 100% line based on pool speed and difficulty, or pool speed and calculated global hash rate? 

I see the value of Bitcoin, so I don't worry about the price...
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September 28, 2013, 05:12:05 PM
 #3886

X-axis is actually not scaled to blocks solved.  Y-axis is the luck (% of payout vs expectation), X-axis is shift ID (roughly time since shifts are normally the same length).
Good stuff...  Is the 100% line based on pool speed and difficulty, or pool speed and calculated global hash rate? 

100% line means payouts/block solves were exactly what you'd expect given the number of shares.  You'll never see exactly 100% for a single data point since currently each block is paid out to ~2.5 billion shares, which is not an exact multiple of difficulty.  However, the average should always trend towards 100% by the end of a difficulty period.  Only early in a difficulty will you see big swings.

Example:  Current difficulty is 148,819,200.  To be exactly at expectation, a shift would need 2,500,000,000 / 148,819,200 = 16.79 blocks.  Since you can't find a fractional block, a "neutral" shift would either be 16 blocks (slightly under expectation) or 17 blocks (slightly above). 

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September 28, 2013, 06:31:26 PM
 #3887

Is it time to change Mh/s to Gh/s on your tables?

*insert appropriate begging line here* 
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eleuthria
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September 28, 2013, 06:56:28 PM
 #3888

Is it time to change Mh/s to Gh/s on your tables?

Done.  This was something I started on a while ago and never finished.  All numbers on the site are now in GH/s.  On the worker table, a worker under 1 GH/s will be measured in GH/s with 3 decimals (so you'll get MH/s rounded to the nearest MH).

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September 28, 2013, 07:09:12 PM
 #3889

Is it time to change Mh/s to Gh/s on your tables?

Done.  This was something I started on a while ago and never finished.  All numbers on the site are now in MH/s.  On the worker table, a worker under 1 GH/s will be measured in GH/s with 3 decimals (so you'll get MH/s rounded to the nearest MH).

Take a break man. heh did you mix up the Ms and Gs in this post? Cheesy

*insert appropriate begging line here* 
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eleuthria
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September 28, 2013, 07:11:04 PM
 #3890

Is it time to change Mh/s to Gh/s on your tables?

Done.  This was something I started on a while ago and never finished.  All numbers on the site are now in MH/s.  On the worker table, a worker under 1 GH/s will be measured in GH/s with 3 decimals (so you'll get MH/s rounded to the nearest MH).

Take a break man. heh did you mix up the Ms and Gs in this post? Cheesy

Whoops.  All numbers are in GH/s :p

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September 28, 2013, 07:21:22 PM
 #3891

Is it time to change Mh/s to Gh/s on your tables?

Done.  This was something I started on a while ago and never finished.  All numbers on the site are now in MH/s.  On the worker table, a worker under 1 GH/s will be measured in GH/s with 3 decimals (so you'll get MH/s rounded to the nearest MH).

Take a break man. heh did you mix up the Ms and Gs in this post? Cheesy

Whoops.  All numbers are in GH/s :p

For your next assignment, figure out why the luck on several pools has gone down the crapper. heh, actually something doesn't feel right but i can't put my finger on it. It feels like the luck calculation is flawed in some way.

*insert appropriate begging line here* 
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eleuthria
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September 28, 2013, 07:32:01 PM
 #3892

For your next assignment, figure out why the luck on several pools has gone down the crapper. heh, actually something doesn't feel right but i can't put my finger on it. It feels like the luck calculation is flawed in some way.

Similar to what I mentioned earlier talking with organofcorti:  Bad luck is defined as a long period without blocks.  That means at any given time, you're probably more likely to be experiencing bad luck rather than good luck.  Good luck comes in very short bursts since they're defined as many blocks in a less than normal amount of time.  Those bursts make up for that extended period of bad luck.

The other issue is network growth is outpacing most pools, so they're losing overall network share.  BTC Guild actually lost a bit of network share recently now that MegaBigPower went solo.  The smaller your share of the network, the worse bad luck feels since the time it takes to solve a block that takes 5-9x difficulty worth of shares is much longer when you're only 5-6% of the network.

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September 28, 2013, 07:42:12 PM
 #3893

For your next assignment, figure out why the luck on several pools has gone down the crapper. heh, actually something doesn't feel right but i can't put my finger on it. It feels like the luck calculation is flawed in some way.

Similar to what I mentioned earlier talking with organofcorti:  Bad luck is defined as a long period without blocks.  That means at any given time, you're probably more likely to be experiencing bad luck rather than good luck.  Good luck comes in very short bursts since they're defined as many blocks in a less than normal amount of time.  Those bursts make up for that extended period of bad luck.

The other issue is network growth is outpacing most pools, so they're losing overall network share.  BTC Guild actually lost a bit of network share recently now that MegaBigPower went solo.  The smaller your share of the network, the worse bad luck feels since the time it takes to solve a block that takes 5-9x difficulty worth of shares is much longer when you're only 5-6% of the network.

So then the increase in overall hashrate without a proportional growth in a pool's hashrate would manifest as Bad Luck? That i can wrap my head around.

*insert appropriate begging line here* 
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eleuthria
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September 28, 2013, 08:09:33 PM
 #3894

For your next assignment, figure out why the luck on several pools has gone down the crapper. heh, actually something doesn't feel right but i can't put my finger on it. It feels like the luck calculation is flawed in some way.

Similar to what I mentioned earlier talking with organofcorti:  Bad luck is defined as a long period without blocks.  That means at any given time, you're probably more likely to be experiencing bad luck rather than good luck.  Good luck comes in very short bursts since they're defined as many blocks in a less than normal amount of time.  Those bursts make up for that extended period of bad luck.

The other issue is network growth is outpacing most pools, so they're losing overall network share.  BTC Guild actually lost a bit of network share recently now that MegaBigPower went solo.  The smaller your share of the network, the worse bad luck feels since the time it takes to solve a block that takes 5-9x difficulty worth of shares is much longer when you're only 5-6% of the network.

So then the increase in overall hashrate without a proportional growth in a pool's hashrate would manifest as Bad Luck? That i can wrap my head around.

Not exactly, but the "time spent with bad luck" will increase.  If a pool does not keep up with the network growth, they will (on average) have longer rounds.  Similarly, if a pool would have a round that takes 7 times difficulty to complete, it will last even longer as their share of the network decreases between each difficulty.  But the flip side is, the smaller your pool is compared to the network, the higher your potential luck can be in a given time frame, which is what offsets that bad luck.  It's all a matter of variance.

R.I.P. BTC Guild, 2011 - 2015.
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September 29, 2013, 01:39:14 AM
 #3895

Done.  This was something I started on a while ago and never finished.  All numbers on the site are now in GH/s.  On the worker table, a worker under 1 GH/s will be measured in GH/s with 3 decimals (so you'll get MH/s rounded to the nearest MH).

That's awesome. Anyone still living in megahash ages shouldn't even be mining. So much easier on the eye. Thanks.

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eleuthria
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September 29, 2013, 01:54:16 AM
 #3896

A few more minor changes happening to the UI related to how really large numbers can screw up the formatting on the dashboard.

If you have more than 10,000,000 accepted shares on a worker, it will now be divided by 1,000 and a 'k' appended.  If you have more than 100,000 of a certain reject type, the same thing will happen.  In order to make these numbers easier to parse, they now have commas added once these amounts are reached (example: 5,903k accepted).

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September 29, 2013, 03:27:14 PM
 #3897

Another item that got kicked to the side for a while has finally been checked off the To-Do list.  PPLNS Earnings History now has a CSV export available on the settings page.  This means you now have a CSV export available for all earnings and payout data.

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September 29, 2013, 04:50:54 PM
 #3898

It seems as of we are now paying for that long good luck steak on blocks early in the difficulty change. Sad

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September 29, 2013, 05:02:12 PM
 #3899

.............. What's that button for...........

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September 29, 2013, 05:06:41 PM
 #3900

.............. What's that button for...........

That's the button you click to change the pool luck.

You didn't press it did you?!?!?!

A: Because it messes up the order in which people normally read text.
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