[CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers

[eleuthria]

Pool luck 62% ?? I've never seen it this low with BTCGuild. Did difficulty change or something?

This isn't unusual.  Luck is now shown on a per-shift basis in the chart, rather than a per 10-shift basis.  Even so, we've had perios where TEN shifts averaged out to under 60% luck before.  We've also had luck at 180% for 10-shifts.  You'll notice our average is still quite a bit above neutral at the moment.

[dlasher]

Pool luck 62% ?? I've never seen it this low with BTCGuild. Did difficulty change or something?

Yes, diff just jumped from 112M to 148M.

Code:

Blocks	260250
Total BTC	11.756M
 
Difficulty	148819200
Estimated	152406811 in 1830 blks
 
Network total	1225.272 Thash/s
Blocks/hour	6.90 / 522 s

[mdopro1]

Pool luck 62% ?? I've never seen it this low with BTCGuild. Did difficulty change or something?

This isn't unusual.  Luck is now shown on a per-shift basis in the chart, rather than a per 10-shift basis.  Even so, we've had perios where TEN shifts averaged out to under 60% luck before.  We've also had luck at 180% for 10-shifts.  You'll notice our average is still quite a bit above neutral at the moment.

Still pretty good and I see it is improving too. I want to see 180% for 10 shifts again... can you press the easy button?

Yes, diff just jumped from 112M to 148M.

Code:

Blocks	260250
Total BTC	11.756M
 
Difficulty	148819200
Estimated	152406811 in 1830 blks
 
Network total	1225.272 Thash/s
Blocks/hour	6.90 / 522 s

Means I need to get more ASICs.

[OleOle]

"A picture tells a story of 1000 words."

Thanks for the new graph at the bottom of the PPLNS Stats page, it makes it much easier to see how things have been tracking with luck.

 

[eleuthria]

"A picture tells a story of 1000 words."

Thanks for the new graph at the bottom of the PPLNS Stats page, it makes it much easier to see how things have been tracking with luck.

 

I'm going to be playing with the charts even more this weekend.  Now that we're on the new DB server, I can start playing with a lot more data without worrying about the poor thing having a seizure.

[demonmaestro]

I'm going to be playing with the charts even more this weekend.  Now that we're on the new DB server, I can start playing with a lot more data without worrying about the poor thing having a seizure.

You know you're a server admin when...  

[jarhed]

You know you're a server admin when...  

FTFY

....never sleeps

[demonmaestro]

Thanks..

I guess this is wrong.. lol

Thus confirms my speculation that eleuthria never sleeps.  

No fret!  

Eleuthria: Just an idea but could you possibility have a total hashing power line on the user charts?

[eleuthria]

Thanks..

I guess this is wrong.. lol

Thus confirms my speculation that eleuthria never sleeps.  

No fret!  

Eleuthria: Just an idea but could you possibility have a total hashing power line on the user charts?

I'm definitely looking at updates/revisions to the charts.  Only issue with a "total speed" line is it won't be on the same y-axis scale, otherwise accounts with many workers will just have all their workers flattened at the bottom due to having to fit a total line in there.  Makes things a little confusing IMO.

[neutralist]

Pool luck 62% ?? I've never seen it this low with BTCGuild. Did difficulty change or something?

60%? I have seen 38%. may be you want to try out PPS.

[demonmaestro]

I'm definitely looking at updates/revisions to the charts.  Only issue with a "total speed" line is it won't be on the same y-axis scale, otherwise accounts with many workers will just have all their workers flattened at the bottom due to having to fit a total line in there.  Makes things a little confusing IMO.

Good point. I like the graph for the PPLNS!  

BTW i see 130.61%    

[eleuthria]

One thing I think the chart will highlight is how PPLNS smooths variance.  You won't see big spikes/cliffs of luck that only last a short burst and go way positive/way negative.  Instead you'll see it trend positive for a while, then negative, since PPLNS is designed to basically even out per-round variance by stretching it over the last N shares (in this case, broken up into shifts).

[demonmaestro]

I like the overall average. and I really like the luck having as of currently.

However with my wopping 12GH/s i aint going nowhere fast.. lol   Come on KNC.

Holy snake batman. 149% and climing!

[-Redacted-]

Nice chart - good change.  Presents luck well.

[organofcorti]

One thing I think the chart will highlight is how PPLNS smooths variance.  You won't see big spikes/cliffs of luck that only last a short burst and go way positive/way negative.  Instead you'll see it trend positive for a while, then negative, since PPLNS is designed to basically even out per-round variance by stretching it over the last N shares (in this case, broken up into shifts).

That's a great chart - the only comment I have is that you should probably have it on a log scale rather than linear - on your scale luck can be infinitely high, but can not reach 0. Using a linear scale gives more weight to the positive luck.

[eleuthria]

One thing I think the chart will highlight is how PPLNS smooths variance.  You won't see big spikes/cliffs of luck that only last a short burst and go way positive/way negative.  Instead you'll see it trend positive for a while, then negative, since PPLNS is designed to basically even out per-round variance by stretching it over the last N shares (in this case, broken up into shifts).

That's a great chart - the only comment I have is that you should probably have it on a log scale rather than linear - on your scale luck can be infinitely high, but can not reach 0. Using a linear scale gives more weight to the positive luck.

Bad luck is already going to be disproportionately represented on a graph due to bad luck being defined as "long time without blocks", so either way it's going to be biased.  Given BTC Guild's settings (N ~= 2,500,000,000), I think linear will work out fairly well.  The real important part (IMO) is the two lines cutting across showing the average vs neutral.

I will look at some alternate scaling methods, but like I said, with such a high N value, there is an "effective" ceiling on how high luck can possibly go (outside of struck by lightning 19 times while holding a winning lottery ticket types of luck).

[eleuthria]

Okay, after playing with it, I went with a log scale on the graph .

[organofcorti]

One thing I think the chart will highlight is how PPLNS smooths variance.  You won't see big spikes/cliffs of luck that only last a short burst and go way positive/way negative.  Instead you'll see it trend positive for a while, then negative, since PPLNS is designed to basically even out per-round variance by stretching it over the last N shares (in this case, broken up into shifts).

That's a great chart - the only comment I have is that you should probably have it on a log scale rather than linear - on your scale luck can be infinitely high, but can not reach 0. Using a linear scale gives more weight to the positive luck.

Bad luck is already going to be disproportionately represented on a graph due to bad luck being defined as "long time without blocks", so either way it's going to be biased.  

Well, that's another problem with averaging luck over time instead of blocks. Over a longish period of time there's no significant effect, but over a day averaged luck will be, on average, a few percent lower than the real luck. The only way around that problem is to average over "n" blocks and but label it with dates. The only problem is changing the number of blocks over which the luck is averaged if the pool loses or gains large percentages of the network.


Edit:

Okay, after playing with it, I went with a log scale on the graph .

Disregard most of the last part - I have another look at your chart and it already is labelled with blocks solved. Sorry about that.

Anyway, having the x axis scaled to blocks solved and the y-axis log scaled means that luck will be represented without bias in either direction. Nice job, mate.

[eleuthria]

Disregard most of the last post - I have another look at your chart and it already is labelled with blocks solved. Sorry about that.

Anyway, having the x axis scaled to blocks solved and the y-axis log scaled means that luck will be represented without bias in either direction. Nice job, mate.

X-axis is actually not scaled to blocks solved.  Y-axis is the luck (% of payout vs expectation), X-axis is shift ID (roughly time since shifts are normally the same length).

[organofcorti]

Disregard most of the last post - I have another look at your chart and it already is labelled with blocks solved. Sorry about that.

Anyway, having the x axis scaled to blocks solved and the y-axis log scaled means that luck will be represented without bias in either direction. Nice job, mate.

X-axis is actually not scaled to blocks solved.  Y-axis is the luck (% of payout vs expectation), X-axis is shift ID (roughly time since shifts are normally the same length).

OK, you could keep it as is but scale the distance between the tick-marks to the number of blocks solved within a shift - that would make the luck graph as accurate as possible and eliminate the influence of the increased round durations during times of bad luck. It might make the charts less intuitively understandable though, and I'm not sure how easy it is to create a custom scale transform in js.