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Author Topic: DefaultTrust changes  (Read 73770 times)
Quickseller
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August 04, 2019, 10:36:06 PM
 #1781


The query is:
What are the chances that at least one person who was not included in DT1 in July are also not included in DT1 in August. There were 4 people not included in July, there were 106 candidates for DT1 in August with only 100 spots. It is assumed that all 4 people will continue to be eligible in August.

The query can be rewritten/simplified as:
What are the chances of at least 1 of 4 specific people not being included in DT1 in a month in which there are 106 candidates and 100 spots?

You can start by calculating the chances of any one person not being included on DT1 with 100 spots, and 106 candidates with the following formula:6/106
The 6 represents the number who will not get a DT1 spot, and the 106 represents the total number of candidates. The formula is calculated to 5.66%. In other words, there is a 5.66% chance that any one person will not be included in DT1 given 106 candidates and 100 spots.

Since there are 4 opportunities for the above outcome to happen, we would multiple the above result by 4.

Every candidate has the same chances of being not included, and there may be some months in which more than one in the list of 4 is also not included in the following month

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I saw LoyceV and other heavyweight meriting previous solution
Unless there is a solution in another thread, LoyceV did not merit any previous solution other than mine (he did merit mine). bones261 is the only one who merited the previous solution, but he also gave more merit to my solution.

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fillippone
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August 05, 2019, 12:35:29 AM
 #1782


The query is:
What are the chances that at least one person who was not included in DT1 in July are also not included in DT1 in August. There were 4 people not included in July, there were 106 candidates for DT1 in August with only 100 spots. It is assumed that all 4 people will continue to be eligible in August.

The query can be rewritten/simplified as:
What are the chances of at least 1 of 4 specific people not being included in DT1 in a month in which there are 106 candidates and 100 spots?

Correct

Quote
You can start by calculating the chances of any one person not being included on DT1 with 100 spots, and 106 candidates with the following formula:6/106

The 6 represents the number who will not get a DT1 spot, and the 106 represents the total number of candidates. The formula is calculated to 5.66%. In other words, there is a 5.66% chance that any one person will not be included in DT1 given 106 candidates and 100 spots.


correct

Quote
Since there are 4 opportunities for the above outcome to happen, we would multiple the above result by 4.

Not correct, sorry.
Source: Combinatorics/Probability Calculation.
I also discussed this solution with some error-proof individual. He agreed on my solution (this is not appeal to authority, this is only to double check my calculations).

Quote
Every candidate has the same chances of being not included, and there may be some months in which more than one in the list of 4 is also not included in the following month

Quote
I saw LoyceV and other heavyweight meriting previous solution
Unless there is a solution in another thread, LoyceV did not merit any previous solution other than mine (he did merit mine). bones261 is the only one who merited the previous solution, but he also gave more merit to my solution.

When I said previous solution I was referring to your solution, of course, the last solution above my post.

 

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August 05, 2019, 12:54:07 AM
Last edit: August 05, 2019, 04:23:37 AM by suchmoon
 #1783

If you're looking at a particular person

Yes, the chance of babo being excluded twice in a row.

any one or more people already excluded in the first month are also excluded in the second month

Intuitively that chance would be ~100 times greater, i.e. around 20%. Sounds close enough to the debate going on above but they seem to assume that all 104 candidates from the first month are also eligible in the second month, which may or may not be the case.

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August 05, 2019, 01:12:03 AM
Merited by suchmoon (4)
 #1784

If you're looking at a particular person

Yes, the chance of bobo babo being excluded twice in a row.

any one or more people already excluded in the first month are also excluded in the second month

Intuitively that chance would be ~100 times greater, i.e. around 20%. Seems close enough to the debate going on above but they seem to assume that all 104 candidates from the first month are also eligible in the second month, which may or may not be the case.
FTFY!
poor Babo!

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August 05, 2019, 04:20:32 AM
 #1785

FTFY!
poor Babo!

Apologies to babo. My excuse is that I was binging Wynonna Earp yesterday.

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August 05, 2019, 08:23:30 AM
 #1786

Since we're back at the chances of being included, I'll drop my 2 satoshis:
I merited Quickseller's post, but not theymos' post. I thought the 99.99997% looked a bit high, but past midnight I didn't have the time for a proper response.

Rough calculation
Assuming: the first month 4 people didn't make it to DT1, and the next month 6 people didn't make it.
I see no need for a very accurate calculation, so I'm doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation with rounding.

That means there's a 4% chance for anyone to be excluded in the first month, and 6% the next month.

For someone to be excluded 2 months in a row, the chance multiplies to 0.24%.
For someone who is already excluded in the first month to be excluded in the second month too, the chance is the same as it is for anyone else to be excluded in the second month: 6%.
For one of the 4 users who were excluded in the first month, to be excluded again in the second month, the chance is 4 times higher: 24% (and here the rounding error gets a bit larger but it's still acceptable for the sake of argument).



Wouldn't it be more interesting to look at the actual chances to DT2 that result from the changes in DT1? It only matters who's on DT1 if a DT2-member is included by only one (or maybe two) DT1 member(s).

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August 05, 2019, 08:29:04 AM
 #1787

I see no need for a very accurate calculation, so I'm doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation with rounding.

There's no need for very accurate calculation, but there is a way to do very accurate calculations.
This is why I did very accurate calculations!





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August 05, 2019, 08:48:54 AM
 #1788

i follow the discussion for pure mathematical interest.

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September 04, 2019, 12:52:28 AM
Last edit: September 04, 2019, 03:23:56 AM by suchmoon
 #1789

Update: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg52352059#msg52352059

[ never mind, see Veleor's list below ]

Veleor
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September 04, 2019, 03:21:22 AM
Merited by suchmoon (4), LoyceV (2)
 #1790

DT update log

Removed:
gmaxwellTrust List
SebastianJuTrust List
DabsTrust List
monkeynutsTrust List
hedgy73Trust List
EcuaMobiTrust List
PiggyTrust List
ekillerTrust List
polymerbitTrust List
AlyattesLydiaTrust List
bavicryptoTrust List
theyoungmillionaireTrust List

Added:
CanaryInTheMineTrust List
AnduckTrust List
baboTrust List
arulberoTrust List
JayJuanGeeTrust List
BitcoinPennyTrust List
mhanbostanciTrust List
KalemderTrust List
LeGauloisTrust List
asuTrust List
chimkTrust List
madnessteatTrust List
suchmoon
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September 04, 2019, 03:25:56 AM
Last edit: September 04, 2019, 03:41:46 AM by suchmoon
 #1791

I think there are mistakes in your list. Some added and deleted users were mixed up.

Hmmm... weird. I just did a simple diff, not sure how that happened. Thanks for the correction.

Edit - Roger Ver is just a few votes away from DT2 courtesy of CanaryInTheMine Grin

http://loyce.club/trust/2019-08-31_Sat_06.04h/18614.html

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September 04, 2019, 05:30:10 AM
 #1792

Luckily babo is now included in the list, saving us from another round of combinatory calculus dissertation.

LoyceV
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September 04, 2019, 07:25:45 AM
Merited by Gunthar (1)
 #1793

See Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings for an updated list of all DT1 and DT2 members. The number of DT2-members dropped from 434 to to 372, partially because of the removal of Trust Selfscratchers.

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September 04, 2019, 01:01:53 PM
 #1794

Which moron added https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=158678 to DT?

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September 04, 2019, 01:05:00 PM
Merited by marlboroza (1)
 #1795

Please go to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;full
Ctrl+F
Type: goraset
Press enter three time  Wink

Kalemder
        Timelord2067
        EFS
        by rallier
        goraset
        teramit
        Lydian
        techman
        owlcatz
        mhanbostanci
        Suleiman the Magnificent
        cabsav
        ekiller
        udonmez
        onurgozupek
        bobita
        HakanYAZICI
        Vispilio
        wolwoo
        Matthias9515
        AlyattesLydia
        PHI1618
        yilmazsatti
        gospodin
        cryptobaro
        Bthd

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September 04, 2019, 01:54:40 PM
Merited by Foxpup (2)
 #1796

No, this is me ranting about someone adding plagiarist and content thief to default trust. Correct me if I am wrong, but this is second time this user ended up in DT and again person who caught goraset stealing their work and trying to pass it as their own for monetary gain ended up with negative trust https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2050090.0.

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September 04, 2019, 04:26:03 PM
Last edit: September 04, 2019, 05:08:31 PM by marlboroza
 #1797

No, this is me ranting about someone adding plagiarist and content thief to default trust. Correct me if I am wrong, but this is second time this user ended up in DT and again person who caught goraset stealing their work and trying to pass it as their own for monetary gain ended up with negative trust https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2050090.0.
This may or may not be true and this could be a valid and correct objection.
If you only have spent time to read thread instead writing wall of text which I stopped reading exactly here you would have seen what I am talking about.


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September 04, 2019, 04:45:51 PM
 #1798

We and our friends will be keeping on topic and relevant whilst bringing them to light at every instance.
Oh FFS, you don't have friends; you have a bunch of alt accounts which everyone knows about, and nobody of importance has been listening to any of their rants since you began this crap months ago.  You can keep wasting your energy if you like, but don't think you're convincing anyone about anything.

If you only have spent time to read thread instead writing wall of text which I stopped reading exactly here you would have seen what I am talking about.
True, but don't tell me you expect anything more from TOAA.  It's nonstop keyboard diarrhea, just like the flow from cryptohunter.  Not surprising.

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September 05, 2019, 04:02:02 AM
 #1799

So what is the verdict on this new DT1 system? I looked through the current DT1 members and I am lost on how some of these guys are DT1. I am not complaining as I opted out of it and all, but am really curious if people feel things are better/worse/same etc...
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September 05, 2019, 05:22:43 AM
 #1800

So what is the verdict on this new DT1 system? I looked through the current DT1 members and I am lost on how some of these guys are DT1. I am not complaining as I opted out of it and all, but am really curious if people feel things are better/worse/same etc...

I think it's a joke. I share Theymos' opinion that the old system needed an overhaul but we've seen plenty of merit cycling and vote manipulation to get people into DT. At this point I think it would be better to completely remove DT.
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