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 Author Topic: DefaultTrust changes  (Read 73770 times)
Quickseller
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 August 04, 2019, 10:36:06 PM

The query is:
What are the chances that at least one person who was not included in DT1 in July are also not included in DT1 in August. There were 4 people not included in July, there were 106 candidates for DT1 in August with only 100 spots. It is assumed that all 4 people will continue to be eligible in August.

The query can be rewritten/simplified as:
What are the chances of at least 1 of 4 specific people not being included in DT1 in a month in which there are 106 candidates and 100 spots?

You can start by calculating the chances of any one person not being included on DT1 with 100 spots, and 106 candidates with the following formula:6/106
The 6 represents the number who will not get a DT1 spot, and the 106 represents the total number of candidates. The formula is calculated to 5.66%. In other words, there is a 5.66% chance that any one person will not be included in DT1 given 106 candidates and 100 spots.

Since there are 4 opportunities for the above outcome to happen, we would multiple the above result by 4.

Every candidate has the same chances of being not included, and there may be some months in which more than one in the list of 4 is also not included in the following month

Quote
I saw LoyceV and other heavyweight meriting previous solution
Unless there is a solution in another thread, LoyceV did not merit any previous solution other than mine (he did merit mine). bones261 is the only one who merited the previous solution, but he also gave more merit to my solution.

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fillippone
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Merit Rascal

 August 05, 2019, 12:35:29 AM

The query is:
What are the chances that at least one person who was not included in DT1 in July are also not included in DT1 in August. There were 4 people not included in July, there were 106 candidates for DT1 in August with only 100 spots. It is assumed that all 4 people will continue to be eligible in August.

The query can be rewritten/simplified as:
What are the chances of at least 1 of 4 specific people not being included in DT1 in a month in which there are 106 candidates and 100 spots?

Correct

Quote
You can start by calculating the chances of any one person not being included on DT1 with 100 spots, and 106 candidates with the following formula:6/106

The 6 represents the number who will not get a DT1 spot, and the 106 represents the total number of candidates. The formula is calculated to 5.66%. In other words, there is a 5.66% chance that any one person will not be included in DT1 given 106 candidates and 100 spots.

correct

Quote
Since there are 4 opportunities for the above outcome to happen, we would multiple the above result by 4.

Not correct, sorry.
Source: Combinatorics/Probability Calculation.
I also discussed this solution with some error-proof individual. He agreed on my solution (this is not appeal to authority, this is only to double check my calculations).

Quote
Every candidate has the same chances of being not included, and there may be some months in which more than one in the list of 4 is also not included in the following month

Quote
I saw LoyceV and other heavyweight meriting previous solution
Unless there is a solution in another thread, LoyceV did not merit any previous solution other than mine (he did merit mine). bones261 is the only one who merited the previous solution, but he also gave more merit to my solution.

When I said previous solution I was referring to your solution, of course, the last solution above my post.

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suchmoon
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 August 05, 2019, 12:54:07 AMLast edit: August 05, 2019, 04:23:37 AM by suchmoon

If you're looking at a particular person

Yes, the chance of babo being excluded twice in a row.

any one or more people already excluded in the first month are also excluded in the second month

Intuitively that chance would be ~100 times greater, i.e. around 20%. Sounds close enough to the debate going on above but they seem to assume that all 104 candidates from the first month are also eligible in the second month, which may or may not be the case.

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fillippone
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Merit Rascal

 August 05, 2019, 01:12:03 AMMerited by suchmoon (4)

If you're looking at a particular person

Yes, the chance of bobo babo being excluded twice in a row.

any one or more people already excluded in the first month are also excluded in the second month

Intuitively that chance would be ~100 times greater, i.e. around 20%. Seems close enough to the debate going on above but they seem to assume that all 104 candidates from the first month are also eligible in the second month, which may or may not be the case.
FTFY!
poor Babo!

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suchmoon
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 August 05, 2019, 04:20:32 AM

FTFY!
poor Babo!

Apologies to babo. My excuse is that I was binging Wynonna Earp yesterday.

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LoyceV
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 August 05, 2019, 08:23:30 AM

Since we're back at the chances of being included, I'll drop my 2 satoshis:
I merited Quickseller's post, but not theymos' post. I thought the 99.99997% looked a bit high, but past midnight I didn't have the time for a proper response.

Rough calculation
Assuming: the first month 4 people didn't make it to DT1, and the next month 6 people didn't make it.
I see no need for a very accurate calculation, so I'm doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation with rounding.

That means there's a 4% chance for anyone to be excluded in the first month, and 6% the next month.

For someone to be excluded 2 months in a row, the chance multiplies to 0.24%.
For someone who is already excluded in the first month to be excluded in the second month too, the chance is the same as it is for anyone else to be excluded in the second month: 6%.
For one of the 4 users who were excluded in the first month, to be excluded again in the second month, the chance is 4 times higher: 24% (and here the rounding error gets a bit larger but it's still acceptable for the sake of argument).

Wouldn't it be more interesting to look at the actual chances to DT2 that result from the changes in DT1? It only matters who's on DT1 if a DT2-member is included by only one (or maybe two) DT1 member(s).

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fillippone
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Merit Rascal

 August 05, 2019, 08:29:04 AM

I see no need for a very accurate calculation, so I'm doing a back-of-the-envelope calculation with rounding.

There's no need for very accurate calculation, but there is a way to do very accurate calculations.
This is why I did very accurate calculations!

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babo
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 August 05, 2019, 08:48:54 AM

i follow the discussion for pure mathematical interest.

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suchmoon
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 September 04, 2019, 12:52:28 AMLast edit: September 04, 2019, 03:23:56 AM by suchmoon

Update: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg52352059#msg52352059

[ never mind, see Veleor's list below ]

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Veleor
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Rêlêå§ê ¥ðµr MïñÐ

 September 04, 2019, 03:21:22 AMMerited by suchmoon (4), LoyceV (2)

suchmoon
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 September 04, 2019, 03:25:56 AMLast edit: September 04, 2019, 03:41:46 AM by suchmoon

I think there are mistakes in your list. Some added and deleted users were mixed up.

Hmmm... weird. I just did a simple diff, not sure how that happened. Thanks for the correction.

Edit - Roger Ver is just a few votes away from DT2 courtesy of CanaryInTheMine

http://loyce.club/trust/2019-08-31_Sat_06.04h/18614.html

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fillippone
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Activity: 910
Merit: 4590

Merit Rascal

 September 04, 2019, 05:30:10 AM

Luckily babo is now included in the list, saving us from another round of combinatory calculus dissertation.

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LoyceV
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Merit: 7200

 September 04, 2019, 07:25:45 AMMerited by Gunthar (1)

See Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings for an updated list of all DT1 and DT2 members. The number of DT2-members dropped from 434 to to 372, partially because of the removal of Trust Selfscratchers.

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marlboroza
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 2219

 September 04, 2019, 01:01:53 PM

Which moron added https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=158678 to DT?

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Mahirap
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- hello doctor who box

 September 04, 2019, 01:05:00 PMMerited by marlboroza (1)

Ctrl+F
Type: goraset
Press enter three time

Kalemder
Timelord2067
EFS
by rallier
goraset
teramit
Lydian
techman
owlcatz
mhanbostanci
Suleiman the Magnificent
cabsav
ekiller
udonmez
onurgozupek
bobita
HakanYAZICI
Vispilio
wolwoo
Matthias9515
AlyattesLydia
PHI1618
yilmazsatti
gospodin
cryptobaro
Bthd

marlboroza
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 2219

 September 04, 2019, 01:54:40 PMMerited by Foxpup (2)

No, this is me ranting about someone adding plagiarist and content thief to default trust. Correct me if I am wrong, but this is second time this user ended up in DT and again person who caught goraset stealing their work and trying to pass it as their own for monetary gain ended up with negative trust https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2050090.0.

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marlboroza
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 2219

 September 04, 2019, 04:26:03 PMLast edit: September 04, 2019, 05:08:31 PM by marlboroza

No, this is me ranting about someone adding plagiarist and content thief to default trust. Correct me if I am wrong, but this is second time this user ended up in DT and again person who caught goraset stealing their work and trying to pass it as their own for monetary gain ended up with negative trust https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2050090.0.
This may or may not be true and this could be a valid and correct objection.
If you only have spent time to read thread instead writing wall of text which I stopped reading exactly here you would have seen what I am talking about.

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The Pharmacist
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Activity: 2086
Merit: 3748

 September 04, 2019, 04:45:51 PM

We and our friends will be keeping on topic and relevant whilst bringing them to light at every instance.
Oh FFS, you don't have friends; you have a bunch of alt accounts which everyone knows about, and nobody of importance has been listening to any of their rants since you began this crap months ago.  You can keep wasting your energy if you like, but don't think you're convincing anyone about anything.

If you only have spent time to read thread instead writing wall of text which I stopped reading exactly here you would have seen what I am talking about.
True, but don't tell me you expect anything more from TOAA.  It's nonstop keyboard diarrhea, just like the flow from cryptohunter.  Not surprising.

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Blazed
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Activity: 2128
Merit: 1119

 September 05, 2019, 04:02:02 AM

So what is the verdict on this new DT1 system? I looked through the current DT1 members and I am lost on how some of these guys are DT1. I am not complaining as I opted out of it and all, but am really curious if people feel things are better/worse/same etc...
TheNewAnon135246
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฿uy ฿itcoin

 September 05, 2019, 05:22:43 AM

So what is the verdict on this new DT1 system? I looked through the current DT1 members and I am lost on how some of these guys are DT1. I am not complaining as I opted out of it and all, but am really curious if people feel things are better/worse/same etc...

I think it's a joke. I share Theymos' opinion that the old system needed an overhaul but we've seen plenty of merit cycling and vote manipulation to get people into DT. At this point I think it would be better to completely remove DT.
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