[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[suchmoon]

NYTimes got their eyes on a shitload of Trumps tax returns over past 20 years.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html

Been reading this for the last half hour... too fucking long, they should have made it a tweet.

Trump appears to have scammed the IRS for $73 million, or as trumpists would say - such an astute businessman, got the taxpayers to fund his fake billionaire lifestyle. Totally presidential.

[TwitchySeal]

NYTimes got their eyes on a shitload of Trumps tax returns over past 20 years.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes.html

Been reading this for the last half hour... too fucking long, they should have made it a tweet.

Trump appears to have scammed the IRS for $73 million, or as trumpists would say - such an astute businessman, got the taxpayers to fund his fake billionaire lifestyle. Totally presidential.

Interactive timeline is cool: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/27/us/donald-trump-taxes-timeline.html

Impressive how it wasn't your standard 'lied about my income' scam, it was a refund scam.  Gotta be brave to pull one of those.  Or stupid.

[eddie13]

(This is one of those times where I highly recommend reading the actual report by the journalists who did the research before falling for click bait

The N.Y. times right?? Yeah...

[PrimeNumber7]

NYTimes got their eyes on a shitload of Trumps tax returns over past 20 years.

It looks like the Chinese government was able to obtain Trump's returns and gave them to the NYTimes. The NYTimes claimed whoever gave them Trump's returns had "legal access" to them, however whoever gave the NYTimes Trump's alleged returns did not have the ability to legally access the returns in order to disclose them to a 3rd party, which casts doubt on their claim.

[suchmoon]

Impressive how it wasn't your standard 'lied about my income' scam

To be fair, paying $750 in income tax while pretending to be a billionaire probably involves lying about income too. Don't underestimate Trump's ability to scam in multiple ways.

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Watching the defensive talking points evolve over the next few days will be almost as fascinating as the report itself. I'm sure we'll find out that it's not true, and quite normal if true, and it's Hillary's fault.

[PrimeNumber7]

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Watching the defensive talking points evolve over the next few days will be almost as fascinating as the report itself. I'm sure we'll find out that it's not true, and quite normal if true, and it's Hillary's fault.

I don't think there is anyone on the forum being paid to post Republican talking points. The same cannot be said for Democratic talking points.

I am curious as to how long the New York Time had this information. Did they sit on it for nearly the entire year since Trump's 2018 returns were due? If so, will the NYT be prosecuted the same way the enquirer was prosecuted for sitting on negative information about Trump for political purposes?

[sirazimuth]

(This is one of those times where I highly recommend reading the actual report by the journalists who did the research before falling for click bait

The N.Y. times right?? Yeah...

Its showing Trump to be the conniving shyster that any rational person (or anyone with at least a bit of brain stuck in their head.... which excludes most of his base....ever watched one of those rallies?)...knows that he is
 (regardless of party affiliation, btw), so it must be fake news....

suchmoons odds...etc...

[suchmoon]

I don't think there is anyone on the forum being paid to post Republican talking points. The same cannot be said for Democratic talking points.

I don't think I said there's someone paid to do so. I can totally believe that some people parrot Fox News for free.

I am curious as to how long the New York Time had this information. Did they sit on it for nearly the entire year since Trump's 2018 returns were due? If so, will the NYT be prosecuted the same way the enquirer was prosecuted for sitting on negative information about Trump for political purposes?

Good job. Keep avoiding the substance of the report until you find an excuse that works.

[Gyfts]

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Watching the defensive talking points evolve over the next few days will be almost as fascinating as the report itself. I'm sure we'll find out that it's not true, and quite normal if true, and it's Hillary's fault.

I don't think there is anyone on the forum being paid to post Republican talking points. The same cannot be said for Democratic talking points.

I am curious as to how long the New York Time had this information. Did they sit on it for nearly the entire year since Trump's 2018 returns were due? If so, will the NYT be prosecuted the same way the enquirer was prosecuted for sitting on negative information about Trump for political purposes?

Why would the NYT be prosecuted? The NYT probably was sitting on his tax returns for a while, but good luck suing the NYT as a public figure. I'd be a worse look if Trump to sued the NYT over this.

Edit - To be clear, everyone knew Trump did not pay taxes back in 2016, so I don't actually think this will have any affect with voters. Billionaires do not get rich cutting checks to Uncle Sam, so there's that.

[Gyfts]

Trump double downs on request for drug testing prior to debate: 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1310211120922230784

What are the odds we see candidates test positive for cocaine? 

[suchmoon]

Edit - To be clear, everyone knew Trump did not pay taxes back in 2016, so I don't actually think this will have any affect with voters. Billionaires do not get rich cutting checks to Uncle Sam, so there's that.

I thought at least some of Trump's voters had this illusion that he's a successful businessman. This must be heartbreaking for them.

I'm also curious how he's gonna pay off that $100 million Trump Tower mortgage. Can't refinance - had no income for years. Can't expect to raise money by selling his money-losing businesses. Unless he lied to the IRS about one or more of these things, which would be seriously uncool.

Cherry on top - he sold his stock holdings by 2016... missed the stock market bubble he's bragging about so much LOL.

[TwitchySeal]

(This is one of those times where I highly recommend reading the actual report by the journalists who did the research before falling for click bait

The N.Y. times right?? Yeah...

Yeah.  Always putting their noses in the business of people in power.

Remember this one?  https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/us/politics/hillary-clintons-use-of-private-email-at-state-department-raises-flags.html

Why can't they just mind their own business instead of snitching on our publicly elected leaders?

To be clear, everyone knew Trump did not pay taxes back in 2016, so I don't actually think this will have any affect with voters. Billionaires do not get rich cutting checks to Uncle Sam, so there's that.

Is right wing media already trying to convince people that the NYT report was just about Trump not paying taxes back in 2016 and hey he's a billionaire so who cares?

Don't fall for it.  Read it for yourself.

[Gyfts]

(This is one of those times where I highly recommend reading the actual report by the journalists who did the research before falling for click bait

The N.Y. times right?? Yeah...

Yeah.  Always putting their noses in the business of people in power.

Remember this one?  https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/us/politics/hillary-clintons-use-of-private-email-at-state-department-raises-flags.html

Why can't they just mind their own business instead of snitching on our publicly elected leaders?

To be clear, everyone knew Trump did not pay taxes back in 2016, so I don't actually think this will have any affect with voters. Billionaires do not get rich cutting checks to Uncle Sam, so there's that.

Is right wing media already trying to convince people that the NYT report was just about Trump not paying taxes back in 2016 and hey he's a billionaire so who cares?

Don't fall for it.  Read it for yourself.

I can't read it, it's behind a paywall. I read the AP's write up, which probably left out key details but they certainly aren't right wing. Anyway, I wasn't under the impression that Trump paid federal income tax based on previous reporting by the NYT back in 2016, although he did pay something like 30 million in one year a while back.

Billionaires are not moral people. Only exception might be Bill Gates, but then again people think he's involved in population control, so you can't win even if you tried.

People are entitled to their deductions. They aren't entitled to tax evasion, so if there's evidence that Trump broke the law, he deserves penalty.

[JollyGood]

Now that is a new twist to the whole election drama. I think any testing would have to be mutually agreed to go ahead and I cannot see consensus on it because if it will be drug today it might be about something else tomorrow.

They should stick to the ethics surrounding the elections and simply get on with trying their best to win the electorate rather than attempt to show the misgivings, shortcomings or failures of their opponent.

Trump double downs on request for drug testing prior to debate: 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1310211120922230784

What are the odds we see candidates test positive for cocaine? 

[squatz1]

Now that is a new twist to the whole election drama. I think any testing would have to be mutually agreed to go ahead and I cannot see consensus on it because if it will be drug today it might be about something else tomorrow.

They should stick to the ethics surrounding the elections and simply get on with trying their best to win the electorate rather than attempt to show the misgivings, shortcomings or failures of their opponent.

Trump double downs on request for drug testing prior to debate: 

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1310211120922230784

What are the odds we see candidates test positive for cocaine? 

I mean if Biden is on some sort of drugs, I think it'd be highly possible that Trump is taking adderals and such to stay focused. That (and Cocaine) are pretty common among the ultra wealthy so they have some sort of edge. I know there were some allegations that Trump was taking them cause he passed the 'sniff test' according to some journalists.

Odds? 0. Neither is going to be tested.

This is literally just the Roger Stone campaign advising way of throwing out the craziest stories to the media and hoping that some of it ends up sticking. Crazily enough it has worked for sometime.

[PrimeNumber7]

This is false. If Trump wins, investments in your 401k are likely to continue to increase, as will your wages, and standard of living. If Biden wins, the economy will go to the shitter, real wages will decline, as will investments in your 401k. If you have children, their livelihoods over their lifetimes will decline.

If Trump wins, you will profit, and if Biden wins, you will lose a lot of money, and freedoms.

Is there any statistical data or projection to back up these claims? Do you a URL?

How and why does Biden winning mean the economy will go downhill and wages will decline or the livelihood of children will decline over their lifetime?

How and why does Biden winning mean US citizens lose money and freedoms?

Look at the implied volatility on Put options (which are profitable if prices declines) on the S&P 500, and other major indecies after the election. Implied volatility goes way up for Put options contracts that expire after the election ends.

Bernie Sanders said Biden will be the most progressive Presidenct since FDR. However FDR depressed the economy in the 1930's:

<>
By 1936 the top U.S. personal income-tax rate had been raised to 79%, with a 70% maximum estate tax. The top federal corporate tax rate, however, was only 15%. In response, wealthy Americans accumulated profits inside corporations that owned their residences and other assets
<>
Suddenly, at Roosevelt’s urging, Congress tore up all this careful and legal tax-avoidance planning with the Revenue Act of 1937. Corporate money was subject to immediate distribution and taxed at high individual rates. In effect, these were accumulated-wealth taxes, imposed at precisely the wrong time.
<>
The economic pain was swift and severe. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed to 114 on Nov. 24, 1937, from 190 on Aug. 14, a 40% decline. Gross domestic product fell by more than 5% between 1937 and 1938. Unemployment, roughly 12% in May 1937, climbed to 20.7% in April 1939. Industrial production tumbled 33% from the spring of 1937 to May 1938 and didn’t return to its 1937 peak until late 1939.

Economic pain today means less economic opportunities for our Children tomorrow. Also, Trump is arguing that school choice is a civil right, while Biden has said he department of education will be pro-teacher's union (not pro-student). This means, teachers will not be held accountable for their performance, and students will not be able to go to Charter schools when their public schools are failing, unless their parents have a lot of resources.

[TwitchySeal]

Look at the implied volatility on Put options (which are profitable if prices declines) on the S&P 500, and other major indecies after the election. Implied volatility goes way up for Put options contracts that expire after the election ends.

The fear of a disputed election is the biggest factor in the spiking IV for November - although it is true that even without Trump refusing to agree to a peaceful transfer of power if he were to lose - the short term markets would likely look better with a Trump victory.  But that's certainly not proof of long term anything.

The op-eds are interesting, but you aren't really proving anything either.  You would need a crystal ball or some other thing that doesn't exist to back up your claims.

[squatz1]

Look at the implied volatility on Put options (which are profitable if prices declines) on the S&P 500, and other major indecies after the election. Implied volatility goes way up for Put options contracts that expire after the election ends.

The fear of a disputed election is the biggest factor in the spiking IV for November - although it is true that even without Trump refusing to agree to a peaceful transfer of power if he were to lose - the short term markets would likely look better with a Trump victory.  But that's certainly not proof of long term anything.

The op-eds are interesting, but you aren't really proving anything either.  You would need a crystal ball or some other thing that doesn't exist to back up your claims.

Short term (If Biden wins) - Yeah the market is going to be a bit nervous. Uncertainty scares markets, so an incumbent President losing for the first time since 1992(?) is going to totally freak them out a bit. I think a lot of this also relies on if the DNC takes the Senate as well, if they do short term markets are going to plummet as they're going to expect the Trump tax cuts to be reversed and Corp tax rate to go up.

Long term (if Biden wins) - Market has always gone up in the long term, so over a 8-10 year period the market will continue on its upward trend. Biden is still a moderate, we shouldn't forget that. It's not like Bernie is the frontunner anymore, Biden is literally just a moderate Dem.

But like always, WE'LL SEE.

[BADecker]

Here's another reason why such a bet is a random operation.


Democrat insider: Anti-Trump postal workers in GOP neighborhoods throw mail-in ballots in the garbage

A Democrat operative says the United States Postal Service (USPS) workers who despise President Trump will sometimes help election fraudsters by throwing in the garbage mail-in ballots from Republican-heavy neighborhoods.

Last month, as Breitbart News highlighted, a Democrat operative told the New York Post's Jon Levine a number of stories in which insiders like him lead teams of fraudsters to commit election fraud by paying homeless voters off, taking advantage of the elderly, posing as registered voters, and printing up fake ballots.

One notable tactic, the Democrat operative said, is how insiders will use USPS workers to help sway election results, Levine reported:

"You have a postman who is a rabid anti-Trump guy and he's working in Bedminster or some Republican stronghold … He can take those ballots, and knowing 95% are going to a Republican, he can just throw those in the garbage."

In some cases, mail carriers were members of his "work crew," and would sift ballots from the mail and hand them over to the operative.

[JollyGood]

You are spot on with the odds. Neither will be tested but it would not surprise me if both Biden and Trump are taking some sort of drugs, the same goes for Pence and Harris.

If they were on some sort of drugs thinking they might have some sort of edge over the other in public debates, I wonder what would happen those drugs were replaced with a placebo.

I mean if Biden is on some sort of drugs, I think it'd be highly possible that Trump is taking adderals and such to stay focused. That (and Cocaine) are pretty common among the ultra wealthy so they have some sort of edge. I know there were some allegations that Trump was taking them cause he passed the 'sniff test' according to some journalists.

Odds? 0. Neither is going to be tested.

This is literally just the Roger Stone campaign advising way of throwing out the craziest stories to the media and hoping that some of it ends up sticking. Crazily enough it has worked for sometime.