[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

What I see in XMR price is stability. The average for the time Crypto Kingdom has existed (Oct 2014-present) is 0.44 EUR, currently 0.46 EUR.

[smooth]

Someone dumped 15 btc, then 3BTC, then 5BTC. Quite a strange move

Could be a group of people. They bough before the 0.9 release, waited a bit till price increase after the release, and they are dumping now.

Pretty expected. Now that the release is out and just about everyone is aware of it, the immediate pump is over. Some short term traders are certainly going to bail out.

Longer term we will see how the improved maturity and functionality of the software (and of course looking forward to next steps) can attract more demand to absorb the supply. That's the only way we can maintain higher prices going forward.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Marketing is the weakness of Monero currently.
There is no marketing taking place (I am not counting it as marketing to have trolls like me or someone else writing on btc talk forums).
By marketing I mean reaching out the people who are not even bitcoin holders but using conventional money.
To become successful Monero need to be absorbed by as many people as possible on planet earth and hopefully a few aliens also when we reach the moon. 

[thelibertycap]

With 0.9, it is ready to be marketed now. GUI is finally useable with the new bitmonerod.
Website should be improved and perhaps talk about the color scheme is good at this point, before the official GUI is finished.
I think the main obstacles have been overcome (except multisig which is a big deal and is crucial to have it for some application).
Now it is just an incremental easy path of getting better and better with each mini-release

[tokeweed]

Someone dumped 15 btc, then 3BTC, then 5BTC. Quite a strange move

Could be a group of people. They bough before the 0.9 release, waited a bit till price increase after the release, and they are dumping now.

It's a fake out...  It happens.  If you like trading breakouts and momentum, you get whipsawed and stopped out almost everytime.  Currently XRP, NXT and now XMR all the same.

[primer-]

http://chainradar.com/xmr/blocks
No one is fucking using this shitcoin, just look at the number of transactions in each block...

Someone pump this shit up to .002 so I can dump my stash

[TrueCryptonaire]

http://chainradar.com/xmr/blocks
No one is fucking using this shitcoin, just look at the number of transactions in each block...

Someone pump this shit up to .002 so I can dump my stash

Monero is not so much a transactional currency as it is a store of value.
Transactional currency doesn't need to be private but a store of value prefertably should.
If you have any meaningful amounts of money you may not want to reveal it to the whole earth but keep it known only by yourself.

[birr]

We're playing the long game with Monero.  We won't see mass adoption for decades, I'd say.  Complaining about short term prices is pointless.  The network keeps getting stronger, but a real market beyond aficionados is going to be years in the making.  Let's focus on strengthening the network and stop this bellyaching about price.
Even if you're in this coin to make money, you have to play the long game. Monero is a standout for the stability of its exchange rate.  I wouldn't have it any other way.  For short term speculation, there's lots of other coins out there.  Even xbt is more volatile than xmr.

Monero holds much of its value in its dedicated, skilled and far-sighted development team.  I own a substantial chunk of moneroj, but I care little for the price.  The more I learn about where Monero is heading, the more I recognize we're at the early stages of something that can turn out to be truly great.  If you listen to the latest Monero Missive, and think about the implications of the plans for i2p, it just might make you see that Monero's real value isn't monetary.  I don't think it's going too far to say that it has a moral dimension.

[TrueCryptonaire]

We're playing the long game with Monero.  We won't see mass adoption for decades, I'd say.  Complaining about short term prices is pointless.  The network keeps getting stronger, but a real market beyond aficionados is going to be years in the making.  Let's focus on strengthening the network and stop this bellyaching about price.
Even if you're in this coin to make money, you have to play the long game. Monero is a standout for the stability of its exchange rate.  I wouldn't have it any other way.  For short term speculation, there's lots of other coins out there.  Even xbt is far more volatile than xmr.

Monero carries much of its value in its dedicated, skilled and far-sighted development team.  I own a substantial chunk of moneroj, but I care very little for the price.  The more I learn about where Monero is heading in the future, the more I recognize we're only at the very earliest stages of something that can turn out to be truly great.  If you listen to the latest Monero Missive, and think about the implications of the plans for i2p, it just might make you see that Monero's real value isn't monetary.  I don't think it's too much to say that it has a moral dimension.

Soon it has been developed 2 years.
At some point of time it is time to become vocal and not hide in the caves of subforum of a bitcointalk.
Network is probably now strong enough for new adaption. Sure the whole earth and some aliens will not embrace XMR is 2016 but some progress need to be made also in terms of adaption and users. Otherwise Monero is just another coin among hundreds of other blockchains.
The coin rise or dies with marketing. Technologically Monero works fine for storing value right now and it is ready for receiving billions of dollars but is the community consisting enough preachers and marketing skills to bring it out there available for the masses.
I own also Moneros and I admit that I hold it to gain some financial benefit. After all, I could invest even the money elsewhere but I am still showing my trust into XMR.
I think it is reasonable to expect some increase in value in 2016, sure it will not hit 1000 usd/xmr in 2016 but it should finally start rising now as there is no more high emission (when XMR stabilized to 0.004 btc in 2014 the emission was significiantly higher and the development has not been advancing too much).
If the price will not start climbing and start a bull market at some point of time it is time to move on and not to stuck for too long into a losing bet.

[birr]

The last thing I want to see in Monero is a bull market.
A rising market, yes. A market where the price reflects increased use and real value.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Why? Sounds like you are shorting since rising XMR price is not in your best interest.

[birr]

Why? Sounds like you are shorting since rising XMR price is not in your best interest.

While you were typing I clarified what I think is the difference between "bull market" and rising market.
Been there and done the bull market thing with bitcoins.  To me, bull market is almost synonymous with bubble.  That's just been my experience.  And don't want that for Monero.
If you read my other post you  would know I have a significant long position in xmr.

My only concern is the long term survival of the coin, if you will.  And that's only because, in order for the network to survive, the coin has to survive.  We have a remarkably stable coin.  That's good!

I agree we need users.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Why? Sounds like you are shorting since rising XMR price is not in your best interest.

While you were typing I clarified what I think is the difference between "bull market" and rising market.
Been there and done the bull market thing with bitcoins.  To me, bull market is almost synonymous with bubble.  That's just been my experience.  And don't want that for Monero.
If you read my other post you  would know I have a significant long position in xmr.

My only concern is the long term survival of the coin, if you will.  And that's only because, in order for the network to survive, the coin has to survive.  We have a remarkably stable coin.  That's good!

I agree we need users.

I think now we are on the same page.
Definetely a bubble is unhealthy for any investment.

The rising price trend or bull market, whatever way you want to call it, is healthy since it gives an incentive to new investors joining in the game (FOMO effect).
The rising price trendline is a positive spiral: new money flows in, new interest picks up, new companies accept XMR, new users, new speculators, new you name it will flow into XMR sphere.
When the market goes down or stays stagnant the situation is exactly the opposite.

[GTO911]

Rising prices attract attention and is good even if sudden.

[smooth]

This fantastic image illustrates the feedback loops that lead to growth and success. It was originally created about Bitcoin but applies equally to Monero.

One way it has been misinterpreted is giving the orientation some sort of significance (e.g. that "Hoarders" on the top the most important or fundamental). In reality the image could be arbitrarily rotated or otherwise transformed and still be correct, so none of the individual nodes are the "source" of growth (or favored point of reference in any way); they all are.

It could probably be improved by adding development feedback loops, and maybe being a bit more explicit about speculation.  EDIT: Interesting the hand-drawn original linked below did include dev support.



Credits:

Image from here: http://themisescircle.org/blog/2013/02/19/end-the-fed-hoard-bitcoins/

based on:

[dEBRUYNE]

With 0.9, it is ready to be marketed now. GUI is finally useable with the new bitmonerod.
Website should be improved and perhaps talk about the color scheme is good at this point, before the official GUI is finished.
I think the main obstacles have been overcome (except multisig which is a big deal and is crucial to have it for some application).
Now it is just an incremental easy path of getting better and better with each mini-release

Guess you missed this:

Interesting comment from Shen about multisig

yep - very likely will be implemented in conjunction with the ring ct stuff

Following the "written up" link in the Ring CT post, section 4.4 of the paper describes how to implement "Ring multisignature". Some of the other CryptoNote coins have multisig, but only with 0 mixin.

Very nice work being done on the crypto front.

[GingerAle]

Interestingly the hand drawn version had a lot more direct feedback loops than the clean version.

And unfortunately, monero is not a store of value, it is transactional. Unless you think a perpetual emission magically prevents dilution. In 114 years there will be 36 million monero. And in 228 years there will be 54 million.

And re promotion, the primary demo right now is the crypto community. Y? Because the crypto community is the support staff for the outsiders to get help from in a foss environment. U don't get merchant adoption if a merchant can't figure out how to implement, and the ones that help implement are the hodgepodge enthusiasts and developers in these fora. There's no 1-800 number. We are tech support. ( insert vanilla sky gif here )

[rpietila]

And unfortunately, monero is not a store of value, it is transactional. Unless you think a perpetual emission magically prevents dilution.

The perpetual emission is 0.9% or even lower. In my newest economic understanding it is actually too low for XMR to be universally recognized as a store of value. For something that is monetary in nature (a slip of paper, a ledger entry, or gold), to be an accepted store of value from generation to the next one, there needs to be dilution. Otherwise the new generation does not feel burdened to accept the store-of-value of the previous generation as exchange for labor. They will make a new one, causing the previous one to plummet in value.

Of course the inflation can also be too high (it is unlikely that a coin which doubles the emission every year by design, would gain value), or unfair (in fiat system, all new money is premined to banksters and others only get to use it in exchange for interest payment). But what poses the issue with Monero as regards wide adoption is too low future inflation, not too high.

[dnaleor]

And unfortunately, monero is not a store of value, it is transactional. Unless you think a perpetual emission magically prevents dilution.

The perpetual emission is 0.9% or even lower. In my newest economic understanding it is actually too low for XMR to be universally recognized as a store of value. For something that is monetary in nature (a slip of paper, a ledger entry, or gold), to be an accepted store of value from generation to the next one, there needs to be dilution. Otherwise the new generation does not feel burdened to accept the store-of-value of the previous generation as exchange for labor. They will make a new one, causing the previous one to plummet in value.

Of course the inflation can also be too high (it is unlikely that a coin which doubles the emission every year by design, would gain value), or unfair (in fiat system, all new money is premined to banksters and others only get to use it in exchange for interest payment). But what poses the issue with Monero as regards wide adoption is too low future inflation, not too high.

at least our inflation is higher than BTC inflation.
But I agree with you, this is a risk. But on the other hand, maybe devs wouldn't work on a coin that had higher inflation? That's why I try to refer to the first 18.4 million XMR as "bootstrap emission". Roughly around the time the bootstrap is over, XMR inflation will be higher than BTC inflation and this will forever be the case.

edit: basically we have the bootstrap emission of 184 million coins in 8 years "in stead of" 117 years (calculated at 0.3 XMR per minute). So roughly 109 yers of emission is awared to the early adopters. BTC is much worse because there is ZERO emission after bootstrap.

[dreamspark]

Why? Sounds like you are shorting since rising XMR price is not in your best interest.

While you were typing I clarified what I think is the difference between "bull market" and rising market.
Been there and done the bull market thing with bitcoins.  To me, bull market is almost synonymous with bubble.  That's just been my experience.  And don't want that for Monero.
If you read my other post you  would know I have a significant long position in xmr.

My only concern is the long term survival of the coin, if you will.  And that's only because, in order for the network to survive, the coin has to survive.  We have a remarkably stable coin.  That's good!

I agree we need users.

Emerging markets always seem to peak and trough, Its unstopable in such low market cap vehicles.