[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

https://news.bitcoin.com/first-implementation-zerocoin-released-introducing-moneta/

[dnaleor]

The historical evidence is that during a Bitcoin boom alt-coins for the most part have increased sharply in value with respect to Bitcoin. The current low price of Monero with respect to Bitcoin is the market not factoring in the development that has occurred in Monero over the last year. This is likely due the very old "official" binaries. The 0.8.8.6 version of Monero (the last official binaries) require over 9.2 GB in RAM. Seriously how many computers can handle that? Now compare that to the memory requirements of a Monero binary that is complied from the current source code.

My take is that staying "short" on Monero at this point in time is playing with fire.

The market has had plenty of time to anticipate and price in the new version.  I expect a crash, as the normal 'buy the rumor, sell the news' thing plays out.

There are plenty of XMR available to borrow.  Hard to get caught short when the interest rates are so low you can easily afford to wait until prices fall.

I've never seen such low total bids.  ~30BTC in dumps between here and 0.0001.  Yikes!  

Looks like we're going to retest last year's all time low of 0.00091.  Get ready to ride the Monerocoaster!

I would agree with you if there actually was a date set for the release. Then it would certainly be buy the rumour sell the news (just look at what happened with bitshares 2.0). However, since there is no date set (yet), I think it will not have this effect. Also, bear in mind that the current (old) binaries are barely usable for new users. Thus, newcomers currently will get stuck on the old binaries (assuming they download them and don't use the windows beta or compile themselves), whereas with 0.9 they certainly won't get stuck and will probably have a way better first experience.

add to that fact that with 0.9, it will be easier to promote XMR to new users and to promote projects using XMR (such as monerodice)

[dEBRUYNE]

https://news.bitcoin.com/first-implementation-zerocoin-released-introducing-moneta/

Same guys as -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846471.0

Just look at the trust rating.

EDIT: Also, -> https://forum.bitcoin.com/post7037.html#p7037

&

https://forum.bitcoin.com/post7046.html#p7046

[jehst]

https://news.bitcoin.com/first-implementation-zerocoin-released-introducing-moneta/

Same guys as -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846471.0

Just look at the trust rating.

EDIT: Also, -> https://forum.bitcoin.com/post7037.html#p7037

&

https://forum.bitcoin.com/post7046.html#p7046

This Gary guy seems super sketch.

[dEBRUYNE]

https://news.bitcoin.com/first-implementation-zerocoin-released-introducing-moneta/

Same guys as -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=846471.0

Just look at the trust rating.

EDIT: Also, -> https://forum.bitcoin.com/post7037.html#p7037

&

https://forum.bitcoin.com/post7046.html#p7046

This Gary guy seems super sketch.

Found another 1 -> https://github.com/MonetaOfficial/moneta/issues/1

Not signing your commits is a HUGE red flag.

[jehst]

What is Moneta?

Moneta is firstever cryptocurrency intrgrated Zerocoin extention ( http://zerocoin.org ) to make transactions in Blockchain truly anonymity.

Seems rushed.

[dnaleor]

https://news.bitcoin.com/first-implementation-zerocoin-released-introducing-moneta/

I suggest mailing editor@bitcoin.com to make them aware of the issues.

[digicoin]

Please pump this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3xkuuq/ring_signature_confidential_transactions_for/

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Please pump this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3xkuuq/ring_signature_confidential_transactions_for/

Nice to see the technology discussed without the thread being deleted. If we want it to stay that way make sure the conversation remains about the technology and not Monero by name as best you can.

Thank you for sharing the thread!

[dEBRUYNE]

Please pump this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3xkuuq/ring_signature_confidential_transactions_for/

Nice to see the technology discussed without the thread being deleted. If we want it to stay that way make sure the conversation remains about the technology and not Monero by name as best you can.

Thank you for sharing the thread!

+1, I've only posted some general information to inform the user, but I'll leave it with that.

[smooth]

Actually by this measure Monero has done very well. If we compare peak market cap since June 2014 to current market cap.

Monero      -20%

Ethereum     -47%
Litecoin        -49%
Dodgecoin   -53%
Namecoin    -68%
Dash            -70%

What we a measuring here is the overall fall in alt-coin prices as the price of Bitcoin was falling from its 2013 peak.

Certainly very interesting.

It has been a tough crypto market the last few years but Monero has held up nicely.

[letsplayagame]

Please pump this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3xkuuq/ring_signature_confidential_transactions_for/

Nice to see the technology discussed without the thread being deleted. If we want it to stay that way make sure the conversation remains about the technology and not Monero by name as best you can.

Thank you for sharing the thread!

+1, I've only posted some general information to inform the user, but I'll leave it with that.

https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098.pdf

I immediately noticed the IACR domain!

http://www.iacr.org/jofc/

"The Journal of Cryptology is the official journal of the International Association for Cryptologic Research, and provides a forum for publication of original results in all areas of modern information security. It started with volume 1 in 1988, and currently consists of four issues per year. It is published by Springer. IACR members receive a subscription to the Journal of Cryptology."

Right now the article is in the ePrint archive
https://eprint.iacr.org/eprint-bin/search.pl?last=7&title=1
https://eprint.iacr.org/

Cryptology ePrint Archive

"The Cryptology ePrint Archive provides rapid access to recent research in cryptology. Papers have been placed here by the authors and did not undergo any refereeing process other than verifying that the work seems to be within the scope of cryptology and meets some minimal acceptance criteria and publishing conditions."

Will publication in the Journal of Cryptology be sought as well?

[digicoin]

I am glad to see a Monero-related thread being displayed on the first page in /r/bitcoin

[dEBRUYNE]

Please pump this thread https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3xkuuq/ring_signature_confidential_transactions_for/

Nice to see the technology discussed without the thread being deleted. If we want it to stay that way make sure the conversation remains about the technology and not Monero by name as best you can.

Thank you for sharing the thread!

+1, I've only posted some general information to inform the user, but I'll leave it with that.

https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098.pdf

I immediately noticed the IACR domain!

http://www.iacr.org/jofc/

"The Journal of Cryptology is the official journal of the International Association for Cryptologic Research, and provides a forum for publication of original results in all areas of modern information security. It started with volume 1 in 1988, and currently consists of four issues per year. It is published by Springer. IACR members receive a subscription to the Journal of Cryptology."

Right now the article is in the ePrint archive
https://eprint.iacr.org/eprint-bin/search.pl?last=7&title=1
https://eprint.iacr.org/

Cryptology ePrint Archive

"The Cryptology ePrint Archive provides rapid access to recent research in cryptology. Papers have been placed here by the authors and did not undergo any refereeing process other than verifying that the work seems to be within the scope of cryptology and meets some minimal acceptance criteria and publishing conditions."

Will publication in the Journal of Cryptology be sought as well?

If I recall correctly the whitepaper isn't completely finished yet, to the extent that it is still a working paper and gets edited occasionally. Also, publication into a journal is generally kind of a pain in the ass. That is, it takes a long time to get included into the Journal (if they even approve your paper). Furthermore, they will really scrutinize your paper (which is good) and comment on it for a few rounds, until it is sufficient to publish (there is also a possibilty that you get declined in the last "round").

[rpietila]

Actually by this measure Monero has done very well. If we compare peak market cap since June 2014 to current market cap.

Monero      -20%

Ethereum     -47%
Litecoin        -49%
Dodgecoin   -53%
Namecoin    -68%
Dash            -70%

What we a measuring here is the overall fall in alt-coin prices as the price of Bitcoin was falling from its 2013 peak.

How is bitcoin doing in this metric?

[dEBRUYNE]

Actually by this measure Monero has done very well. If we compare peak market cap since June 2014 to current market cap.

Monero      -20%

Ethereum     -47%
Litecoin        -49%
Dodgecoin   -53%
Namecoin    -68%
Dash            -70%

What we a measuring here is the overall fall in alt-coin prices as the price of Bitcoin was falling from its 2013 peak.

How is bitcoin doing in this metric?

According to this graph (http://www.coindesk.com/data/bitcoin-market-capitalization/) it was somewhere between 7.25 million and 8.55 in June 2014. I'll take 7.9 as average for convenience. Bitcoins market cap is around 6.75 currently (taken ~450-460 as price). So that's down around 15%.

[smoothie]

Actually by this measure Monero has done very well. If we compare peak market cap since June 2014 to current market cap.

Monero      -20%

Ethereum     -47%
Litecoin        -49%
Dodgecoin   -53%
Namecoin    -68%
Dash            -70%

What we a measuring here is the overall fall in alt-coin prices as the price of Bitcoin was falling from its 2013 peak.

Certainly very interesting.

It has been a tough crypto market the last few years but Monero has held up nicely.

Really? Is that measured in Bitcoin or fiat?

I thought it fell by much more than 20%.

edit: peak market cap is what I missed.

Okay now it makes sense


Is there a chart that compares these that you are referencing?

[dEBRUYNE]

The historical evidence is that during a Bitcoin boom alt-coins for the most part have increased sharply in value with respect to Bitcoin. The current low price of Monero with respect to Bitcoin is the market not factoring in the development that has occurred in Monero over the last year. This is likely due the very old "official" binaries. The 0.8.8.6 version of Monero (the last official binaries) require over 9.2 GB in RAM. Seriously how many computers can handle that? Now compare that to the memory requirements of a Monero binary that is complied from the current source code.

My take is that staying "short" on Monero at this point in time is playing with fire.

There are plenty of XMR available to borrow.  Hard to get caught short when the interest rates are so low you can easily afford to wait until prices fall.

Still some XMR outstanding that are used for short position. I am quite confident of this because these mini-orders (< 0.0001 BTC) that appear on the trading logs / bitcoinwisdom are margin settlements. That is, the polo engine buys XMR for you (if you don't have any available) to pay your interest.

[ArticMine]

...

How is bitcoin doing in this metric?

Bitcoin -18.7%

By the way in all of these cases I am using USD as the comparison currency.

Edit: I am using Market Cap in USD from. https://coinmarketcap.com/ Click on the corresponding chart for each coin and one can verify my figures.

[dEBRUYNE]

...

How is bitcoin doing in this metric?

Bitcoin -18.7%

By the way in all of these cases I am using USD as the comparison currency.

Edit: I am using Market Cap in USD from. https://coinmarketcap.com/ Click on the corresponding chart for each coin and one can verify my figures.

I just computed the average value for June 2014 and it's ~7.9 million (rounding), so my initial guess was right.