[XMR] Monero Speculation

[medusa13]

Here's hoping this is our "2011" in the coming year.  
  
I just made a post on /r/Monero asking people what would be their magic number that Monero would have to hit before they quit their day job and retired to beaches and room service or went full-Ver.  My magic number is about $400.  Feel free to share yours.

$20 if it held for a while. Not because my XMR would be worth so much but only because I'd see enough potential to work on it full time (not necessarily core, but some aspect of it). I already spend a lot of time on the beach, so not biggie there. But remember, the plan includes one beautiful woman from each continent and I'm a few continents short currently.

same here, been there done that, tropical islands can make you crazy if you stay long enough there..after some time, you cant see those perfect sunsets anymore, too much kitsch for me.
also i realized that flora and fauna is not as rich in those hot places like in places where there is snow too. after realizing this my interest in european nature was big again and i enjoyed discovering my local nature. this was some years ago and it still holds up, maybe i just had a beach overdose back then

but yeah sometimes i still dream of places like bora bora.. maybe one day for real, beach life is so easy, but too much sun+alcohol will make you stupid

range for me would be somewhere between 10 and 20$ where it would justify to do it full time(whatever i do)..if it ever goes somewhere close to 100$ you will know medusa is going crazy 24/7 playing the markets. living the beachlife again wont have a lot to do with moneros price. its more a logistical thing since you need to pause your old life for some time. money helps, but living the real beachlife is more kind of a mindset, which costs nothing.

the world offers a lot, dont need to have a fortune. in asia you can easily life a good life with 1$k per month and enoy a lot of postcard like beaches and stunning nature.

for me, beach would be way too boring to retire anyway

btw price back down to 105k, bids down to ~60btc. always huge % swings in this region, buying at 100k was always a good trade until now, so lets see.

[Hueristic]

No it does not. That is a stupid way to measure as it would make Euros themselves the best store of value. Fiat currencies lose value really quickly because they are diluted. Look up the prices of things in the US in 1900 and you'll see.

This is a really fun website: http://www.dfas.mil/militarymembers/payentitlements/military-pay-charts.html

Check out historic pay for US military members throughout the years.  You'll see that as early as 1995, military members with 10 years of experience were being given a basic pay of as little as $13,000 a year.  The further you go back, the more ridiculous the inflation becomes evident.  You can see back in 1970 how someone with significant rank and experience would only get a basic pay of about $500 a month!

I doubt those charts take into account bah allowance nor clothing allowance if offbase or the fact that all housing and food is supplied.

[BTT]

Monero have been crashing for a while now. Just wondering what's causing it?

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero have been crashing for a while now. Just wondering what's causing it?

It's crashed from ~40 cents to ~50 cents!

I wonder when it will crash up to $1.   

[jehst]

Monero have been crashing for a while now. Just wondering what's causing it?

One theory is that XMR will basically be flat in USD as BTC rises until an inflection point where money starts spilling over into alts. So it will appear that XMR is perpetually crashing (in BTC) until it's suddenly not.

It's hard to say when that inflection point will be. I'm still holding some bitcoin, but if we get to $800-$1000, I plan to finish moving out and be 100% in XMR, other alts (which I'm not going to shill for), and fiat. A real crypto-boom will not be limited to BTC, although it will seem that way at first.

[smooth]

At least, I agree [Bitcoin] is immense relative to Monero. It is tiny relative to the traditional fiat currency system.

Bitcoin is still tiny compared for example to the Somalian subset of the hawala network.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala#Horn_of_Africa

Ignore the traditional fiat nonsense; focus on System D.  The fiat will burn itself out as the paper inevitably returns to its intrinsic value.

Watch out informal remittance systems, we're gunning for ya!  

Good points. It is easy to forget how tiny this crypto economy really is, including Bitcoin.

[jehst]

At least, I agree [Bitcoin] is immense relative to Monero. It is tiny relative to the traditional fiat currency system.

Bitcoin is still tiny compared for example to the Somalian subset of the hawala network.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala#Horn_of_Africa

Ignore the traditional fiat nonsense; focus on System D.  The fiat will burn itself out as the paper inevitably returns to its intrinsic value.

Watch out informal remittance systems, we're gunning for ya!  

Good points. It is easy to forget how tiny this crypto economy really is, including Bitcoin.

Did you see this picture?

http://i2.wp.com/money.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/all-the-worlds-money-and-markets-viz.png?w=1130

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero have been crashing for a while now. Just wondering what's causing it?

One theory is that XMR will basically be flat in USD as BTC rises until an inflection point where money starts spilling over into alts. So it will appear that XMR is perpetually crashing (in BTC) until it's suddenly not.

It's hard to say when that inflection point will be. I'm still holding some bitcoin, but if we get to $800-$1000, I plan to finish moving out and be 100% in XMR, other alts (which I'm not going to shill for), and fiat. A real crypto-boom will not be limited to BTC, although it will seem that way at first.

Alts lag, then race ahead of BTC like silver does to gold.  I think of it like a rubber band tether.

Many of XMR for lending have either been taken off the market or are being used for shorting.

The supply of cheap ~0.001 BTC XMR is tight as a drum.  A little volume would slingshot us back towards the moon.

[smooth]

The plan now is to buy Dracula's castle

Castles are so 2014 Bitcoin.

Maybe a space station would be fun.

[americanpegasus]

The plan now is to buy Dracula's castle

Castles are so 2014 Bitcoin.

Maybe a space station would be fun.

 
 
Well fuck. 
 
I was actually planning to write a novel about this, with a female protagonist and her friend as the main characters who go to work in such an establishment.  You would see the good intentions of the protagonist slowly warped and transformed as she has to acquiesce and play power-games with the other employees.   
 
But forget the castle. 
 
You just gave me a ridiculous idea that perhaps the first "space resort" in orbit would be a better setting?  When things start going nasty and sour for the heroes, how much more awful that they are in orbit aboard a 'space cruise ship'?  It wouldn't even have to be that futuristic; this could be set as early as 2040. 
 
Thank you.

[e-coinomist]

A very geekish, somewhat elonmuesqué approach. Calculate in the negative health effects of radiation and prolonged Zero G exposure. And the cats would not like that litterbox on Zero G.

I would establish a mixture between †Henning Mankell's two homed approach and add some †Ernest Hemingway. A mansion in northern europe and a ranch in south Africa. Could start writing books, too.

[iCEBREAKER]

The plan now is to buy Dracula's castle

Castles are so 2014 Bitcoin.

Maybe a space station would be fun.

Space stations are so 1971.

Lunar colony or GET REKT FILTHY CASUAL.

#HARSHMISTRESS

[digicoin]

Monero have been crashing for a while now. Just wondering what's causing it?

I don't see it a crash. It is in the down trend. Slowly but steadily because of lack of buyer which implies lack of adoption. It is still too soon to say if it is bad or not.

[mmortal03]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

A GUI already exists, but it's external. Works fine even with the latest beta binaries (tested).

Link: http://monero.org/monerox-client/

On Windows, last I checked, you had to force kill the daemon or MoneroX process after closing the GUI with the recent binaries, or it will remain in memory. If there wasn't this issue, I'd recommend it like you do.

[Jason.W]

Monero have been crashing for a while now. Just wondering what's causing it?

I don't see it a crash. It is in the down trend. Slowly but steadily because of lack of buyer which implies lack of adoption. It is still too soon to say if it is bad or not.

2016 Goal for all should be to focus on a USD value v. XMR, I think.

With that in mind, this has been on a reasonably solid uptrend since about 28 Sep. Just a few days will mark an easy three month uptrend.

30 Nov the market cap was USD 3.687M. Today it sits at USD 5.146M, looking only at total coins in existence.

A 39.6% gain in the last three months is an absolutely fantastic turnout.

What information are you looking at that you're interpreting the last three months as a downtrend?

[digicoin]

It is a down trend if you look at the peak at April, 2015 and August 2015. Down trend for nearly a year now.

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr
Block 30m
Expand the chart to the beginning

[Jason.W]

It is a down trend if you look at the peak at April, 2015 and August 2015. Down trend for nearly a year now.

https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr
Block 30m
Expand the chart to the beginning

Yes, $6 to $0.50 is quite a downtrend I suppose. Guess my timeline's a bit shorter than yours for now 

On a comparison, there are lots of other losses as well in startups/newer companies. Take Argos Therapeutics for example. Not to shill too hard here, but these people are working on something pretty great for a few years before Monero even existed.

They've seen tens/hundreds of millions of 'losses' by marketcap. That's just one Pharma company employing anywhere around 200+ people with no product going to market yet. These people are still going to work next year.

Not that I'm trying to trivialize anyone's losses here in Monero, losses are never great, just that I definitely agree with you about it being still too soon.

I hope everyone continues to find the resolve, peace of mind and good fortune to continue holding/buying/contributing is all.

[vokain]

The plan now is to buy Dracula's castle

Castles are so 2014 Bitcoin.

Maybe a space station would be fun.

Space stations are so 1971.

Lunar colony or GET REKT FILTHY CASUAL.

#HARSHMISTRESS

I was thinkin' of going way back and building some retro Great Pyramid spaceships  
http://www.solcommand.com/2013/03/giza-pyramid-spaceship.html?m=1

[jehst]

A space station may not be the most interesting thing that you buy with your Monero. Have you considered immortality?

I've been researching Aubrey de Grey, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Thiel, Ellison, Brin, etc. and other people who are researching or supporting life extension. It seems that there are a lot of smart people who believe that we'll be able to realistically extend our lives to 120+ years. That will then be enough, for some of us, to survive until the point where technology allows us to extend our lives indefinitely.

But the first generation of immortals will need lots of money. Read more here:
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/03/13/silicon-valley-trying-make-humans-immortal-and-finding-some-success-311402.html

[rangedriver]

A space station may not be the most interesting thing that you buy with your Monero. Have you considered immortality?

I've been researching Aubrey de Grey, Ray Kurzweil, Peter Thiel, Ellison, Brin, etc. and other people who are researching or supporting life extension. It seems that there are a lot of smart people who believe that we'll be able to realistically extend our lives to 120+ years. That will then be enough, for some of us, to survive until the point where technology allows us to extend our lives indefinitely.

But the first generation of immortals will need lots of money. Read more here:
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/03/13/silicon-valley-trying-make-humans-immortal-and-finding-some-success-311402.html

I will never understand people who advocate immortality. It's akin to being a prisoner and seeking an extension of incarceration.

Newsflash: It's impossible to experience nothingness, therefore you can only ever experience somethingness, therefore you are eternal.

All that remains is the nature of the experience, and this place falls short.

Given you are eternal, the only acceptable place is a place where you have absolute freedom. Otherwise you are a prisoner. Why the hell would you want to extend that?

Happy Saturday Everyone.