[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

I first read about bitcoin in Wired when bitcoin was about $6-8 in 2011

The story in Wired that got a lot of attention (and introduced many people to Bitcoin) was late 2011. It was a large review (maybe cover?) that included the history of Satoshi, etc., the pump, the MtGox hack, etc. The price had hit $30 earlier that year and was on its way down to $2 or whatever the low ended up being after another year or so. Still I guess $6-8 when the article came out.

The one I read was before the bubble. Let me just find it

EDIT: Here it is. The article came out just before the bubble:
http://www.wired.com/2011/06/silkroad-2/

Price was $8.67 according the article.

Ah okay, I hadn't seen that one. The pump started in late April though (maybe Silk Road becoming popular?). The price as of April 15 was still $1, and arguably even back in October ($0.06). Maybe the Wired piece did contribute to the blow-off high at $30 though.

More to do the point, do you agree with my perception that the next pump that attracts mainstream media attention will be much, much bigger? I think we discussed this here recently. Some say it will take a new ATH. I think $1000 is enough.

[TPTB_need_war]

There are many people who are of the opinion that Wikileaks was a global elite funded entity. For example they point out who Assange was staying with while under trial in the UK, how Wikileaks launched the Arab Spring (which appears to be the work of the global elite), etc..

The pizza story was spread all over the internet. And then the Wikileaks event was the next big one that spread all over the internet.

Also smooth you dismiss the effect of the articles between the first and second bubbles. Any one who knows marketing understands, repetition, repetition, repetition. So these articles were building the awareness in people like myself, so that we were more poised to jump in 2012 and 2013. I actually was tempted to jump in 2012, but then I got so ill starting around end of 2011. I had read Szabo's Bitgold and seen the Bitcoin whitepaper even earlier than mid-2011 (I believe it was roughly 2010 when I was working on a silver vault idea).

Perhaps my awareness was due to being in the silverbug community. And perhaps it was viral due to word of mouth. The scale at which so many of us were aware of these things, tends to indicate that it was receiving some other forms of distribution boost on the internet.

I hope we can get to the bottom of this. I am curious. Wish we had more hard data to work with. I am very sleepless at the moment, so I can't really think clearly.

[smooth]

I hope we can get to the bottom of this. I am curious. Wish we had more hard data to work with. I am very sleepless at the moment, so I can't really think clearly.

A lot depends on your definition of mainstream. If you think it encompasses all manner of things including techie news, precious metals, alex jones, etc. then I guess I'd probably agree there was some element of pumping to it. Obviously people became aware of Bitcoin somehow, and while there was some word of mouth, there was also tech news, some blogs, probably precious metal stuff, etc.

Those sources were around in 2011 and early 2013 and probably were early to the game reporting the late 2013 pump (and reporting on the halvening).

If you define it as the way the middle 80% (say within one sigma of average ordinary people on whatever sort of spectrum you want to use) get their information, then I don't agree it had anything to do with it. Yet.

[TPTB_need_war]

Mainstream covers stuff, including Bitcoin, that bubbles (or sometimes crashes). Other than that they mostly ignore it.

Huh? Afair CNBC was having roundtable discussions about it.

That dork Glenn Beck at Fox mentioning often.

[smooth]

Mainstream covers stuff, including Bitcoin, that bubbles (or sometimes crashes). Other than that they mostly ignore it.

Huh? Afair CNBC was having roundtable discussions about it.

During the bubble for sure. Every fucking day (maybe not a roundtable but I really do think they had at least one guest or host discussing it literally every day). Before the bubble, no.

[TPTB_need_war]

Mainstream covers stuff, including Bitcoin, that bubbles (or sometimes crashes). Other than that they mostly ignore it.

Huh? Afair CNBC was having roundtable discussions about it.

During the bubble for sure. Every fucking day. Before the bubble, no.

That is precisely when you pump a bubble to drive the price to $1000+ so your Chinese miners can rape it all the way down.

And we've already established the MSM were helping lay the ground work of marketing awareness before the 2013 bubble.

Seems there were also some stories when Bitcoin broke back above $10 again.

[smooth]

Mainstream covers stuff, including Bitcoin, that bubbles (or sometimes crashes). Other than that they mostly ignore it.

Huh? Afair CNBC was having roundtable discussions about it.

During the bubble for sure. Every fucking day. Before the bubble, no.

That is precisely when you pump a bubble to drive the price to $1000+ so your Chinese miners can rape it all the way down.

And we've already established the MSM were helping lay the ground work of marketing awareness before the 2013 bubble.

Seems there were also some stories when Bitcoin broke back above $10 again.

Okay let's assume this unprovable and undisprovable theory might be true.

Can we get back on topic. That means either relating it directly to Monero or not discussing it here any more.

[TPTB_need_war]

What happens if the MSM refuses to cover Monero (or any altcoin)? Can an altcoin overcome any way?

Did Bittorrent become popular without MSM coverage? Is Bittorrent as popular as Bitcoin?

Any other ways to quantify risks w.r.t. MSM control over public perception?

(That is assuming the MSM is capable of being so organized in terms of deciding what to censor or not, which is not proven. We have only shown that MSM probably had some impact on Bitcoin's adoption, but not whether it was essential)

[smooth]

What happens if the MSM refuses to cover Monero (or any altcoin)? Can an altcoin overcome any way?

Okay good angle.

Did Bittorrent become popular without MSM coverage?

I'm not really sure.

Is Bittorrent as popular as Bitcoin?

Bittorrent is more popular than Bitcoin by a wide margin. I've seen reports of 30 million Bittorrent nodes at times, and that does not include all users.

[XMRpromotions]

What happens if the MSM refuses to cover Monero (or any altcoin)? Can an altcoin overcome any way?

Okay good angle.

Did Bittorrent become popular without MSM coverage?

I'm not really sure.

Is Bittorrent as popular as Bitcoin?

Bittorrent is more popular than Bitcoin by a wide margin. I've seen reports of 30 million Bittorrent nodes at times, and that does not include all users.

Do you have any accurate estimates for the current I2P user base? I know it is tiny compared to Tor but imagine it is growing at a faster rate.

[jehst]

I first read about bitcoin in Wired when bitcoin was about $6-8 in 2011

The story in Wired that got a lot of attention (and introduced many people to Bitcoin) was late 2011. It was a large review (maybe cover?) that included the history of Satoshi, etc., the pump, the MtGox hack, etc. The price had hit $30 earlier that year and was on its way down to $2 or whatever the low ended up being after another year or so. Still I guess $6-8 when the article came out.

The one I read was before the bubble. Let me just find it

EDIT: Here it is. The article came out just before the bubble:
http://www.wired.com/2011/06/silkroad-2/

Price was $8.67 according the article.

Ah okay, I hadn't seen that one. The pump started in late April though (maybe Silk Road becoming popular?). The price as of April 15 was still $1, and arguably even back in October ($0.06). Maybe the Wired piece did contribute to the blow-off high at $30 though.

More to do the point, do you agree with my perception that the next pump that attracts mainstream media attention will be much, much bigger?

Yes, I've made some posts about how I think the recurring bubble cycle is based partly on the bitcoin hype expanding into increasingly wider demographics through different media outlets, starting with cryptoanarchists and STEM guys hearing about bitcoin from Slashdot getting us to $1, and then Silk Road/Gawker/Wired geeks getting us to double digits, and so on. We have a lot more demographics that we can expand into.  

We still haven't seriously broken into the worldwide baby boomer demographic at all.

We haven't broken into Japan at all. There are 450,000+ millionaires in Tokyo alone. Almost all babyboomers. How many of them own bitcoin? We can probably round the number down to zero. The yen is the third biggest currency in the world. We haven't cracked it at all.
We have very few women owning any bitcoin.

We actually haven't really broken into China. If Chinese retail investors were buying bitcoin like they were buying Chinese stocks in 2015, we would've broken $20,000 easily. All we did in 2013 was break into the Chinese geek population.

If we can break out into the wealthy babyboomer demographic and get them buying bitcoins like they were buying real estate or dotcom stocks, then we could have a media hype cycle and bubble that could dwarf anything we've seen.

The problem is that they are going to be the hardest demographic to crack. The previous bubbles were low hanging fruit. Of course we could get the DollarVigilante, Max Keiser, Wired/Gawker, Zerohedge, PirateParty, Wikileaks guys on board.  The delay between the last bubble in November 2013 and the next real hype cycle goes to show how difficult it is to crack the next demographic nut.

[SmoothCurves]

To go back to some price speculation, the weekly MACD has flipped to green, which is pretty exciting. It flipped 3 times in our history, all 3 times it was precedent to, or during, a (major) rally.

Since bitcoinwisdom doesn't have all the data available crypttrader seems a broken for the last few days, I'll use two charts.

First, crypttrader, so the start is also observable:



Second, bitcoinwisdom, for the current trend:



The long downslide also seems to be broken:



FYI: I use log scale on all the charts, because it gives a more appropriate image in my opinion. Certainly in high volatility markets such as crypto.

looks like a good time to buy

[smooth]

I first read about bitcoin in Wired when bitcoin was about $6-8 in 2011

The story in Wired that got a lot of attention (and introduced many people to Bitcoin) was late 2011. It was a large review (maybe cover?) that included the history of Satoshi, etc., the pump, the MtGox hack, etc. The price had hit $30 earlier that year and was on its way down to $2 or whatever the low ended up being after another year or so. Still I guess $6-8 when the article came out.

The one I read was before the bubble. Let me just find it

EDIT: Here it is. The article came out just before the bubble:
http://www.wired.com/2011/06/silkroad-2/

Price was $8.67 according the article.

Ah okay, I hadn't seen that one. The pump started in late April though (maybe Silk Road becoming popular?). The price as of April 15 was still $1, and arguably even back in October ($0.06). Maybe the Wired piece did contribute to the blow-off high at $30 though.

More to do the point, do you agree with my perception that the next pump that attracts mainstream media attention will be much, much bigger?

Yes, I've made some posts about how I think the recurring bubble cycle is based partly on the bitcoin hype expanding into increasingly wider demographics through different media outlets, starting with cryptoanarchists and STEM guys hearing about bitcoin from Slashdot getting us to $1, and then Silk Road/Gawker/Wired geeks getting us to double digits, and so on. We have a lot more demographics that we can expand into.  

We still haven't seriously broken into the worldwide baby boomer demographic at all.

We haven't broken into Japan at all. There are 450,000+ millionaires in Tokyo alone. Almost all babyboomers. How many of them own bitcoin? We can probably round the number down to zero. The yen is the third biggest currency in the world. We haven't cracked it at all.
We have very few women owning any bitcoin.

We actually haven't really broken into China. If Chinese retail investors were buying bitcoin like they were buying Chinese stocks in 2015, we would've broken $20,000 easily. All we did in 2013 was break into the Chinese geek population.

If we can break out into the wealthy babyboomer demographic and get them buying bitcoins like they were buying real estate or dotcom stocks, then we could have a media hype cycle and bubble that could dwarf anything we've seen.

The problem is that they are going to be the hardest demographic to crack. The previous bubbles were low hanging fruit. Of course we could get the DollarVigilante, Max Keiser, Wired/Gawker, Zerohedge, PirateParty, Wikileaks guys on board.  The delay between the last bubble in November 2013 and the next real hype cycle goes to show how difficult it is to crack the next demographic nut.

Good analysis. Is there another intermediate stage?

[jehst]

Good analysis. Is there another intermediate stage?

I doubt it. There have been hundreds of Forbes, CNBC, WSJ, Economist and other MSM articles on bitcoin/blockchain. There's no one who is tuned in to any of these media outlets who hasn't heard of bitcoin as an investment by now. Many of them are on the fence by now but perhaps the barrier to entry is too high. Or it seems too risky. The next hype cycle should draw these folks in in all at once as FOMO kicks in.

[iCEBREAKER]

Large market buys...and 0.0014!!!

Shorts are being bent over and spanked.  New monthly high achievement unlocked.

Feels like we are turning a corner on the end of cheap early XMR.

It's getting kind of expensive to buy a reasonably decent sized (18.4k, 0.1% emission) stack.

A return to the 300+ BTC volume days of yore will take us to the moon!   

Someday, Monero might even be mentioned by CoinTelegraph!   

[smooth]

Shorts are being bent over and spanked.  New monthly high achievement unlocked.

There are hardly any shorts (despite no shortage of people who talk as if they would). I've watched the lending market and seen almost no demand, and relatively little supply.

There may be off-exchange shorts, for example, people who sold hoping to buy lower, and are now risking a spanking by the FOMO paddle.

[americanpegasus]

Smooth, you are like the worst bag holder ever. 
 
Lesson #one:  it's always the evil 'shorts' fault.  Always. 
 
Also: All the Tetris blocks seem to be lining up for Monero this year - seriously. 

[koryu]

my guess for monero: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/U3yLIq95-Long-Monero/

not sure about the retest of lower line but played it safe and watching the run now I expect resistance at 0.00155, 0.0017, 0.0019, 0.003

[smooth]

Also: All the Tetris blocks seem to be lining up for Monero this year - seriously. 

I wanna see a screen shot. And the minimum quality standard is CryptoNote Gauntlet.

[adhitthana]

What happens if the MSM refuses to cover Monero (or any altcoin)? Can an altcoin overcome any way?

Can MSM overcome the internet might be another question.