[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

Don't you understand? None of that will matter in a crypto currency based economy.

The only reason you need to deal with fiat now is because few accept crypto, and none pay crypto.

Think beyond 10 years. Think beyond 20.

A crypto currency based economy would still not be exempt from all laws. And if laws can't be imposed it will be illegal. And if it is illegal then you will see no 'crypto currency based economy'. Wake up.

governments are not almighty.
they havent forbidden cash (ok some are trying to limit it)
they havent forbidden gold

as soon as an economy is using it, they want to tax it - and not forbid it

In your utopia, do you honestly think governments are going to let a anonymous currency get traction in their country so it has the possibility of hurting the nations economy? Just because "they want to tax it"?

And don't give me that bullshit about cash because it is issued by governments.

A government will "let an anonymous currency get traction in their country" in order to forestall a revolution and ensuing regime change.

In Wences Casares' scenario, the first country to defect from the petro-dollar world order and adopt crypto is one that has *ALREADY* been damaged beyond repair by fiat and central banking.

By taking a chance on crypto e-cash, a devastated basket-case economy like Bolivia, Haiti, Ukraine, Venezuela, or Argentina has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Once a national currency offers/approximates the safe harbor guarantees of Bitcoin/Monero, others will fall in line like dominoes as Gresham's Law penalizes late movers and lavishly rewards first defectors.

A country won't make bitcoin the official currency if they have no control over the cryptocurrency. At best, they'll just say "people can use whatever currency they want" and the USD or EUR will become the de facto currency.

[iCEBREAKER]

A government will "let an anonymous currency get traction in their country" in order to forestall a revolution and ensuing regime change.

In Wences Casares' scenario, the first country to defect from the petro-dollar world order and adopt crypto is one that has *ALREADY* been damaged beyond repair by fiat and central banking.

By taking a chance on crypto e-cash, a devastated basket-case economy like Bolivia, Haiti, Ukraine, Venezuela, or Argentina has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Once a national currency offers/approximates the safe harbor guarantees of Bitcoin/Monero, others will fall in line like dominoes as Gresham's Law penalizes late movers and lavishly rewards first defectors.

A country won't make bitcoin the official currency if they have no control over the cryptocurrency. At best, they'll just say "people can use whatever currency they want" and the USD or EUR will become the de facto currency.

How do you know that?  Crystal ball or psychic hotline to Ms Cleo?   

You don't know what a country will or will not do, especially when in the throes of mass social unrest following economic collapse.

.gov JBTs can always tax real estate and other illiquid fixed assets.  They'd rather give up some control (and keep their cushy phony-baloney jobs) than lose all control (and be swiftly hung from the nearest lamppost).

The point of making cryto official is that the politicians and central bankers of that country are *RENOUNCING* their prerogative to interfere with the free market.  That's what would trigger a surge of capital inflow, and encourage other impoverished jurisdictions to emulate their example sooner rather than later.

You think Satoshi didn't think through and plan for the beginning of the fiat endgame before he published the Genesis Block?

All these incentive structures were war-gamed decades ago, long before Nakamoto Consensus solved/worked around the BGP and turned theory into practice.

Bitcoin and Monero were created to shape the battlespace in our favor....   

[smoothie]

Don't you understand? None of that will matter in a crypto currency based economy.

The only reason you need to deal with fiat now is because few accept crypto, and none pay crypto.

Think beyond 10 years. Think beyond 20.

A crypto currency based economy would still not be exempt from all laws. And if laws can't be imposed it will be illegal. And if it is illegal then you will see no 'crypto currency based economy'. Wake up.

You do realize that a cryptocurrency based economy can exist over borders and circumvent through government laws right?

This statement is dumb for so many reasons. There is a clear difference between circumvent and avoid. Don't you get that?

Any time you want to make significant purchase in real-life with your anon currency you are fucked. But by all means you can avoid that by living in your mothers basement.

Oh noes looky we have a troll that likes to sling personal insults around.

 

Try harder please because your attempts to get under my skin aren't working.  

Newbie account with a similar name to a guy who used to pump shit coins all the time on different exchanges.

BTW you never said the word "avoid" so not sure where you are getting that? Did you pull that out of your mom's bassement?  


On topic: If you guys get a chance take a look at the Daniel J Burnstein video where he explains elliptic curve crypto and how it works and what pitfalls to look out for.

[LuxMoneroj]

mom's bassement?  

Isis goes hard.*

[aminorex]

...monkey thinks XBTUSD is going to trend up for a couple of hours, so XMRBTC should see a low before midnight GMT before continuing up as XBTUSD resumes a downtrend.

EDIT:  As he often does intraday XBT, monkey just changed his mind and is now bearish XBTUSD intraday.  I should just give up on his intraday crypto calls for good and all.

He flipped again shortly thereafter, and stuck with it, so his bearish turn was very short-lived, and his more consistent bullish bent proved fairly predictive overall.  I could wish he were more decisive, but not at the expense of predictive F1. The consequences for XMRBTC were as expected.

I would note that XMRUSD is now at the lower end of its recent range, and hence it might be a good time to add moneros if you are using dollars - certainly if you are using euros, i would waste no time!



Edit: That was true.  It is no longer true:  XMRUSD is now toward the upper end of its recent range.  It is not a very wide range (so it probably won't last very long). Here's hoping you got while the getting was cheap.

  It is still cheap in btc terms, however.

[dEBRUYNE]

If anyone is interested in the commits from smooth wrt minimum blocksize and blocktime:

https://github.com/iamsmooth/bitmonero/commit/baf101ef4a05ae4d24ed717c16be929456775969
https://github.com/iamsmooth/bitmonero/commit/4fea1a5fe7de41ebf0fb40be856d8a3f1775e7c6

Also, some other updates from Shen (NobleSir) wrt Monero CT:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3pw30d/ringct_for_monero_updated_versions/

edit 11/4/2015: rough outline to completion- probably have time to finish missing parts of the above draft within the next week or so, then over the next month or so hopefully clean it up for a ledger submission, code it in python, create C++ test suite, and finally code into the c++. I have a bit of unrelated (but important to me) research I am working on, so that is what has been taking my time since the original posting.

edit 11/11/2015: missing parts of above draft (still needs some typo checking etc and cleaning up and adding some exposition). http://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098

EDIT: Update from MoneroMooo as well -> https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/334/fund-a-developer-moneromoo-will-work-part-time-on-monero-for-260-hours-over-approx-6-months?page=&noscroll=1#post-4388

[XMRpromotions]

If anyone is interested in the commits from smooth wrt minimum blocksize and blocktime:

https://github.com/iamsmooth/bitmonero/commit/baf101ef4a05ae4d24ed717c16be929456775969
https://github.com/iamsmooth/bitmonero/commit/4fea1a5fe7de41ebf0fb40be856d8a3f1775e7c6

Also, some other updates from Shen (NobleSir) wrt Monero CT:

edit 11/4/2015: rough outline to completion- probably have time to finish missing parts of the above draft within the next week or so, then over the next month or so hopefully clean it up for a ledger submission, code it in python, create C++ test suite, and finally code into the c++. I have a bit of unrelated (but important to me) research I am working on, so that is what has been taking my time since the original posting.

edit 11/11/2015: missing parts of above draft (still needs some typo checking etc and cleaning up and adding some exposition). http://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1098

EDIT: Update from MoneroMooo as well -> https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/334/fund-a-developer-moneromoo-will-work-part-time-on-monero-for-260-hours-over-approx-6-months?page=&noscroll=1#post-4388

Is "some wallet refresh performance work" something that you want to finish optimizing before 0.9 is tagged and released?

[Bassica]

Charts are starting to look pretty good guys  

Looking at the 3d on btcwisdom I'm becoming more and more optimistic.
 
We bounced nicely of the 0.001 like we did in mid feb. Heavy dumping has stopped for a good 10 days now. The raging short-bonanza seems over.
Currently working towards a 4th consecutive green candle, which is in fact quite rare. If we make it, that would be a very bullish signal. So far this happened only in strong run ups or reversals. The 3d macd is heading towards a flip over the next week it seems.

Currently we are encountering some resistance at the 0.00135 level. Traders seem to love to continously set asks around that spot. not surprising, since historicly that was a though resitance to break and heavy force was indeed needed to go below it end of october. Let's see how much 'force' is needed to break it to the upside. Next big one up is the 16.5, which will be a toughy. Lots of history on this spot, both support/resistance and this level also coincides with the first fibo.

We're gonna need some volume though, it's a tad too quiet for my liking. Having said that, if we look at the quiet beform the storm earlier this year in january/feb  we're actually doing a bit better. This might be because of the margin-trading which poloniex has introduced since then.

Some great battles ahead, but I'm definitely long here  

[MoneroMooo]

Is "some wallet refresh performance work" something that you want to finish optimizing before 0.9 is tagged and released?

I'm done with it for now. I'd seen someone mentioning it was slow, so I had a look. It doesn't look particularly slow here, but it might be because I'm on a SSD. We'll see what people think.

[ArticMine]

Is "some wallet refresh performance work" something that you want to finish optimizing before 0.9 is tagged and released?

I'm done with it for now. I'd seen someone mentioning it was slow, so I had a look. It doesn't look particularly slow here, but it might be because I'm on a SSD. We'll see what people think.

It took me about 7 min to refresh a wallet that was 100,000 blocks behind on a 2 TB HDD. So I can see why this could be an issue for someone to has an old HDD hard drive say about 200 GB since HDD seek time for a given spin rotation basically falls with size. I would expect about 70 min for a 200 GB HDD to refresh 100,000 blocks. Still I would not hold up 0.9 over this since there are simple fixes for a user.

1) Get an SSD or a large HDD.
2) Refresh the wallet on a regular basis rather than wait a few months as I just did.

Edit: OS Trisquel GNU/Linux 7, Processor Core  2 Quad 6600 @ 2.4 GHz (about 7 years old) RAM 8 GB DDR 2 Motherboard Asus P5N-D. Monero Version: 0.8.8.7-107eeaf

[bitebits]

Because of reading this topic frequently, I am aware that there a lot of Monero services / websites like xmr.to, monerodice, website that lets you proof your transaction etc.

Is there any website (for example on getmonero.org) bundling all these websites and services? Monero is already bigger than it looks at first sight, which I think is unfortunate for new users.

[dEBRUYNE]

Because of reading this topic frequently, I am aware that there a lot of Monero services / websites like xmr.to, monerodice, website that lets you proof your transaction etc.

Is there any website (for example on getmonero.org) bundling all these websites and services? Monero is already bigger than it looks at first sight, which I think is unfortunate for new users.

I think this is what you are looking for -> https://getmonero.org/getting-started/merchants

Also, https://forum.getmonero.org/5/support/2388/useful-monero-related-tools

[dEBRUYNE]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3srkz8/wanxiang_blockchain_labs_launches_300k_annual/

[birr]

Also, https://forum.getmonero.org/5/support/2388/useful-monero-related-tools

On that site, the link to the "Monero offline wallet generator" tool is broken.

[dEBRUYNE]

Also, https://forum.getmonero.org/5/support/2388/useful-monero-related-tools

On that site, the link to the "Monero offline wallet generator" tool is broken.

That's odd, it works here. Try this one -> https://moneroaddress.org/

[birr]

Or this

https://github.com/moneromooo-monero/monero-wallet-generator

With a fuller explanation

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg11626658#msg11626658

[DaveyJones]

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3srkz8/wanxiang_blockchain_labs_launches_300k_annual/

This could help for the entry into the chinese market and further recognition in general.

[Globb0]

Is Monero in the running? it has the significant difference, they ask for, coming with the db.

As long as that's still a blockchain in their definition as well.

[tyz]

i am not familiar with the coin production of Monero. How many coins will be created/mined over the next years. is there a graphic of coin creation over the complete horizon like for Bitcoin?

[dEBRUYNE]

i am not familiar with the coin production of Monero. How many coins will be created/mined over the next years. is there a graphic of coin creation over the complete horizon like for Bitcoin?

This should help you:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=sharing

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/db/Monero_coin_supply_and_inflation_over_time.png

Furthermore, Monero has a perpetual inflation. That is, after all the initial coins are emitted, Monero has an inflation of ~1% a year. It's actually 0.3 XMR per block (blocktime is 1 minute (will be changed to 2 soon, but rewards will stay the same, so still 0.3 per minute)). Due to this formula, percentage wise the inflation gets lower every year.

Also, from the wikipedia:

Slowly decreasing block reward reaching approx 18.4 million XMR in 8 years,[1] and then a "tail emission" creates a constant increase in money supply amounting to 157,788 XMR per year (mining incentive). This corresponds to an inflation rate of 0.87% around the year 2022, monotonically decreasing towards 0% asymptotically. [2]/quote]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)