[XMR] Monero Speculation

[thelibertycap]

i am not familiar with the coin production of Monero. How many coins will be created/mined over the next years. is there a graphic of coin creation over the complete horizon like for Bitcoin?

This should help you:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qXi7zUSIh7F6UuSuhOryyFbHEy_LJuym3I3neAga_2s/edit?usp=sharing

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/db/Monero_coin_supply_and_inflation_over_time.png

Furthermore, Monero has a perpetual inflation. That is, after all the initial coins are emitted, Monero has an inflation of ~1% a year. It's actually 0.3 XMR per block (blocktime is 1 minute (will be changed to 2 soon, but rewards will stay the same, so still 0.3 per minute)). Due to this formula, percentage wise the inflation gets lower every year.

Also, from the wikipedia:

Slowly decreasing block reward reaching approx 18.4 million XMR in 8 years,[1] and then a "tail emission" creates a constant increase in money supply amounting to 157,788 XMR per year (mining incentive). This corresponds to an inflation rate of 0.87% around the year 2022, monotonically decreasing towards 0% asymptotically. [2]/quote]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero_(cryptocurrency)

If the emission rate is fixed at 157,788 per year, then the inflation will be almost 0 after 20 years. But the paragraph above also mentioned less than 1% a year. I thought that inflation figure is fixed. So annual emission will increase although the rate is kept below 1%.

It should be pointed out that the low constant inflation model Monero is using doesn't suffer from the Tragedy of commons to the same degree as Bitcoin does.
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3111/will-bitcoin-suffer-from-a-mining-tragedy-of-the-commons-when-mining-fees-drop-t
Inflation ensures that mining, and thus network security, stays strong while transaction fees stay reasonable.

[smooth]

If the emission rate is fixed at 157,788 per year, then the inflation will be almost 0 after 20 years. But the paragraph above also mentioned less than 1% a year. I thought that inflation figure is fixed. So annual emission will increase although the rate is kept below 1%.

No, after 20 years the inflation rate won't change much at all. At 1% it would hypothetically take roughly 70 years to double the money supply thus reducing inflation in half. In fact it will take longer (because the percentage rate is decreasing each year).

The reduction in the rate of inflation is extremely slow and will at some point likely be exactly offset by the rate of lost coins, resulting in perpetual mining rewards but a real money supply that is effectively fixed. It sounds like a contradiction but it isn't. I describe this more precisely and estimate a possible ending money supply for Monero at 31 million here.

Monero is using doesn't suffer from the Tragedy of commons to the same degree as Bitcoin does

Correct, but to be fair Bitcoin also doesn't suffer the most severe form of it for 100+ years until the block subsidy run out entirely.

[RealBitcoin]

I do not expect much to happen with Monero price wise until 0.9 comes out. After that there will likely be some action.

The wait will be worth it. This is a major update and I am happy the devs are testing it carefully.

Wow very understatement!

Monero 0.9 is the most epic update in the history of epic updates.  Bigger than Windows 3.1 or anything else!

It will lay the foundation on which the rest of the roadmap can built out.

As of now, we're still in the surveying/permitting/concrete mixing phase.

But Soon....

I`m still waiting for a lightweight client, perhaps if you can get it touch with electrum's devs ,they could implement it.

Just my 2 moneros.

[Conurtrol]

Why do people get all hot and bothered about the possibility of Zerocoin but are lukewarm (it seems) to the reality of Monero? ELI5 please.

[dEBRUYNE]

Why do people get all hot and bothered about the possibility of Zerocoin but are lukewarm (it seems) to the reality of Monero? ELI5 please.

I think this can be attributed to the hype Zerocoin created in 2013 (if I recall correctly), many people heard about it via various news outlets. Thus, the name ZeroCoin/ZeroCash is quite familiar for most people involved in the cryptocurrency atmosphere. In contrast, Monero is relatively new and has not been "advertised" much to the extent that there are basically no articles about it on major cryptocurrency outlets (e.g. Coindesk).

[dadj]

I`m still waiting for a lightweight client, perhaps if you can get it touch with electrum's devs ,they could implement it.
Just my 2 moneros.

I just use https://mymonero.com/ and https://monerodice.net/ for storage at the moment and get a bit of ROI bankrolling the house.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Lol you guys are still holding moonero?

Not just hodling but buying little from here and there.
I caused the downtrend but the good news is I am ready for the bull run now. 

[binaryFate]

I caused the downtrend

Illusion of grandeur.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like I was able to create some upward pressure on Monero with the speech.
The good news is, this is only the beginning.

[medusa13]

good resistance has been built up the last few days on the ask side. most below 160k.
bids stay low with difficulties reaching over 100 btc.

altcoins in general look promising to me for now. i like the new presence of monero on youtube etc, cool to see people interested. gives me the feeling i am not completely crazy

lol TC good to see you alive hihi. better sell than jump the bridge

3d macd cross soon and many altcoins look the same, it will be exciting to see how this unfolds.

[RealBitcoin]

I`m still waiting for a lightweight client, perhaps if you can get it touch with electrum's devs ,they could implement it.
Just my 2 moneros.

I just use https://mymonero.com/ and https://monerodice.net/ for storage at the moment and get a bit of ROI bankrolling the house.

A webwallet is not as secure as a lightweight. Plus I want to keep them offline and use the lightweight to broadcast the TX.

[smooth]

I`m still waiting for a lightweight client, perhaps if you can get it touch with electrum's devs ,they could implement it.
Just my 2 moneros.

I just use https://mymonero.com/ and https://monerodice.net/ for storage at the moment and get a bit of ROI bankrolling the house.

A webwallet is not as secure as a lightweight. Plus I want to keep them offline and use the lightweight to broadcast the TX.

You can do that with simplewallet and a remote node. You give up some privacy but that will likely be the case with any lightweight wallet as well.

[GingerAle]

I`m still waiting for a lightweight client, perhaps if you can get it touch with electrum's devs ,they could implement it.
Just my 2 moneros.

I just use https://mymonero.com/ and https://monerodice.net/ for storage at the moment and get a bit of ROI bankrolling the house.

A webwallet is not as secure as a lightweight. Plus I want to keep them offline and use the lightweight to broadcast the TX.

You can do that with simplewallet and a remote node. You give up some privacy but that will likely be the case with any lightweight wallet as well.

at some point, couldn't we do some kind of SSL/SSH thing wherein a simplewallet user could connect to a remote node via an encrypted connection? maybe it does already I dunno. Or maybe this is what you guys are referencing to the "node as service" concept....

regardless, connecting to a remote node with simplewallet seems like a good topic for another imgur slideset

edited to add: hell, jwinterms lite wallet is technically a lightweight client.
https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/166/lightwallet-a-lightweight-monero-gui-account-manager

it defaults to a remote node.

[chennan]

It is a major release because it includes the completed development goals, including databases and 32bit / ARM support. It also includes the blocktime fork from 1 min to 2 min and the tail emission at 0.3 XMR (1 min blocks) 0.6 XMR (two min blocks). It will also be the first official release in over 11 months.

This is a question more for Smooth, but are there any specific new developments tested by the development of Aeon that are going into the 0.9 release coming up soon?

[smooth]

It is a major release because it includes the completed development goals, including databases and 32bit / ARM support. It also includes the blocktime fork from 1 min to 2 min and the tail emission at 0.3 XMR (1 min blocks) 0.6 XMR (two min blocks). It will also be the first official release in over 11 months.

This is a question more for Smooth, but are there any specific new developments tested by the development of Aeon that are going into the 0.9 release coming up soon?

1. The block time change that was previously done for AEON has informed the work to change Monero.

2. There was a bug fix to align the depth requirements between spending outputs and mixins (avoiding a potential privacy leak) that was done in AEON and then merged into Monero for 0.9.

I don't remember any others at this moment, but it's possible I forgot something.

[owm123]

It is a major release because it includes the completed development goals, including databases and 32bit / ARM support. It also includes the blocktime fork from 1 min to 2 min and the tail emission at 0.3 XMR (1 min blocks) 0.6 XMR (two min blocks). It will also be the first official release in over 11 months.

This is a question more for Smooth, but are there any specific new developments tested by the development of Aeon that are going into the 0.9 release coming up soon?

1. The block time change that was previously done for AEON has informed the work to change Monero.

2. There was a bug fix to align the depth requirements between spending outputs and mixins (avoiding a potential privacy leak) that was done in AEON and then merged into Monero for 0.9.

I don't remember any others at this moment, but it's possible I forgot something.

So 0.9 will have 2 min blocks, or not yet?

[GingerAle]

It is a major release because it includes the completed development goals, including databases and 32bit / ARM support. It also includes the blocktime fork from 1 min to 2 min and the tail emission at 0.3 XMR (1 min blocks) 0.6 XMR (two min blocks). It will also be the first official release in over 11 months.

This is a question more for Smooth, but are there any specific new developments tested by the development of Aeon that are going into the 0.9 release coming up soon?

1. The block time change that was previously done for AEON has informed the work to change Monero.

2. There was a bug fix to align the depth requirements between spending outputs and mixins (avoiding a potential privacy leak) that was done in AEON and then merged into Monero for 0.9.

I don't remember any others at this moment, but it's possible I forgot something.

So 0.9 will have 2 min blocks, or not yet?

As I understand it, 0.9 will have the code for the 2 minute blocks, and then at some point after its released it will fork, and the new fork will have 2 minute blocks and min mixins.

[dEBRUYNE]

It is a major release because it includes the completed development goals, including databases and 32bit / ARM support. It also includes the blocktime fork from 1 min to 2 min and the tail emission at 0.3 XMR (1 min blocks) 0.6 XMR (two min blocks). It will also be the first official release in over 11 months.

This is a question more for Smooth, but are there any specific new developments tested by the development of Aeon that are going into the 0.9 release coming up soon?

1. The block time change that was previously done for AEON has informed the work to change Monero.

2. There was a bug fix to align the depth requirements between spending outputs and mixins (avoiding a potential privacy leak) that was done in AEON and then merged into Monero for 0.9.

I don't remember any others at this moment, but it's possible I forgot something.

So 0.9 will have 2 min blocks, or not yet?

As I understand it, 0.9 will have the code for the 2 minute blocks, and then at some point after its released it will fork, and the new fork will have 2 minute blocks and min mixins.

Regarding min mixins, read this -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3n06qw/there_seems_to_be_some_confusion_around_the/.

TL;DR: It will already be set to minimum when 0.9 is released, only enforced after April. In other words, everyone that uses 0.9 will already have a minimum mixin of 3.

Wrt the 2 minute blocks, I think they will go "live" after that April fork. Code will be included in 0.9 though.

[smooth]

It is a major release because it includes the completed development goals, including databases and 32bit / ARM support. It also includes the blocktime fork from 1 min to 2 min and the tail emission at 0.3 XMR (1 min blocks) 0.6 XMR (two min blocks). It will also be the first official release in over 11 months.

This is a question more for Smooth, but are there any specific new developments tested by the development of Aeon that are going into the 0.9 release coming up soon?

1. The block time change that was previously done for AEON has informed the work to change Monero.

2. There was a bug fix to align the depth requirements between spending outputs and mixins (avoiding a potential privacy leak) that was done in AEON and then merged into Monero for 0.9.

I don't remember any others at this moment, but it's possible I forgot something.

So 0.9 will have 2 min blocks, or not yet?

As I understand it, 0.9 will have the code for the 2 minute blocks, and then at some point after its released it will fork, and the new fork will have 2 minute blocks and min mixins.

Regarding min mixins, read this -> https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3n06qw/there_seems_to_be_some_confusion_around_the/.

TL;DR: It will already be set to minimum when 0.9 is released, only enforced after April. In other words, everyone that uses 0.9 will already have a minimum mixin of 3.

Wrt the 2 minute blocks, I think they will go "live" after that April fork. Code will be included in 0.9 though.

Yes that is right. The block time and 60 KB full reward zone (minimum amount of transactions allowed in each block without any penalty) can't be changed without a hard fork, so that will wait until April or so. Most of the features of 0.9 will be active right away though.

[ArticMine]

...

Yes that is right. The block time and 60 KB full reward zone (minimum amount of transactions allowed in each block without any penalty) can't be changed without a hard fork, so that will wait until April or so. Most of the features of 0.9 will be active right away though.

So would I presume the now min 0.6 XMR (based on 2 min blocks) per block tail emission since that was not included in the official 0.8.6.6. binaries as far as I understand.