[XMR] Monero Speculation

[fluffypony]

$18 million sounds like a fortune to you doesn't it ? You run an import/export company with less than 1m annual turnover and you think you're a wiseguy.
How do I know its less than 1m ? You look cheap. Your watch costs $100 or less.

Microsoft does not invest in projects that are unlikely to succeed or are led by amateurs. Vitalik is young, he has the capacity to learn. Ethereum is as revolutionary to cryptocurrency as web was to the internet.

Gosh, what do I deal with first.

No, $18 million doesn't sound like "a fortune". It's a fair chunk of change, and given that it is the 4th highest amount raised by a crowd-funded project it is clear that it *is* a fair amount of money. To a startup that is manufacturing hardware at scale it is barely enough money to get a run going, but to a software startup with relatively low base costs it is, frankly, a fortune. There are plenty of unicorn software startups that spent a lot less than that in their first several years of existence, much less the first year.

As to your comments about me and my company: not only do you not know me, have never met me, know nothing about my life and my businesses, but you are arguing a point that is not up for discussion. See: https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ad-hominem. Try an actual argument instead of a logical fallacy, please.

Finally, Microsoft has not invested in Ethereum or in Vitalik. They have signed a deal with ConsenSys, which is Joseph Lubin's company. FYI: this is the same Microsoft that sunk $5 billion into AT&T, or more recently bought Nokia and then promptly took a $7.6 billion impairment charge (on a $7.9 billion deal).

[ArticMine]

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Microsoft does not invest in projects that are unlikely to succeed or are led by amateurs. Vitalik is young, he has the capacity to learn. Ethereum is as revolutionary to cryptocurrency as web was to the internet.

Microsoft has had a terrible track record in many cases when it come to investing. The offer to purchase for Yahoo in early 2008 just before the 2008 market crash came to mind.

[smooth]

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Microsoft does not invest in projects that are unlikely to succeed or are led by amateurs. Vitalik is young, he has the capacity to learn. Ethereum is as revolutionary to cryptocurrency as web was to the internet.

Microsoft has had a terrible track record in many cases when it come to investing. The offer to purchase for Yahoo in early 2008 just before the 2008 market crash came to mind.

True but their experiments with Ethereum-based projects are nowhere near on that scale either (nor is Microsoft "investing in Ethereum", either the coin or the development group, as far as I know). It is just one of many things that big tech companies like Microsoft experiment with, knowing that some will pan out, some won't.

It is well known that every major bank and every major tech company has people looking at cryptocurrency and blockchains at this point, but that doesn't mean they are making big bets on it. Most are not.

[smooth]

primer-, comments about an individual poster's personal appearance are off topic

dadj, comments about Ethereum especially how it relates to Monero in attempting to solve some of the same problems are on topic to a point. It doesn't matter if you think his comments are pretentious or wrong. Post your different opinion if you disagree with him, or ignore him.

Have you seen pony's pics posted around a year ago ? He looks like he lives in a dumpster, both his clothes and body need 'maintenance'  

[phishead]

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Microsoft does not invest in projects that are unlikely to succeed or are led by amateurs. Vitalik is young, he has the capacity to learn. Ethereum is as revolutionary to cryptocurrency as web was to the internet.

Microsoft has had a terrible track record in many cases when it come to investing. The offer to purchase for Yahoo in early 2008 just before the 2008 market crash came to mind.

True but their experiments with Ethereum-based projects are nowhere near on that scale either (nor is Microsoft "investing in Ethereum", either the coin or the development group, as far as I know). It is just one of many things that big tech companies like Microsoft experiment with, knowing that some will pan out, some won't.

It is well known that every major bank and every major tech company has people looking at cryptocurrency and blockchains at this point, but that doesn't mean they are making big bets on it. Most are not.

Yeah, the reason why I asked about Ethereum and Ripple news stories saying Microsoft is "investing" in it for Azure, is because I was talking to my cousin earlier this week about it who works pretty high up in Microsoft and when I asked him about Ethereum, he had to really stop and think about it before realizing that they were working with things from ethereum, but not much. Microsoft is more worried at what Azure is going to do and cloud data bases before they start worrying about cryptos (atleast that's what it seemed like when talking about it to my cousin).

[jehst]

Taking delivery has been proven to be the most effective method of squeezing the shorts to the wall. In this case, in order to take delivery, this means compiling the Monero software from source on GNU/Linux.

Curious about what you mean by this? Are you implying that exchanges are running fractional reserve and that taking delivery forces them to buy XMR instead of crediting you with phantom reserves?

[smooth]

Taking delivery has been proven to be the most effective method of squeezing the shorts to the wall. In this case, in order to take delivery, this means compiling the Monero software from source on GNU/Linux.

Curious about what you mean by this? Are you implying that exchanges are running fractional reserve and that taking delivery forces them to buy XMR instead of crediting you with phantom reserves?

You never really know do you?

[jehst]

Taking delivery has been proven to be the most effective method of squeezing the shorts to the wall. In this case, in order to take delivery, this means compiling the Monero software from source on GNU/Linux.

Curious about what you mean by this? Are you implying that exchanges are running fractional reserve and that taking delivery forces them to buy XMR instead of crediting you with phantom reserves?

You never really know do you?

I think the default assumption is that all exchanges are running fractional reserves and that bitcoin, like any other currency, will have an M0 and an M1 and M2 and so on because of deposits, futures, and other derivatives.

[ArticMine]

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I think the default assumption is that all exchanges are running fractional reserves and that bitcoin, like any other currency, will have an M0 and an M1 and M2 and so on because of deposits, futures, and other derivatives.

Actually in this case it would be Monero, which at this point is way more illiquid than Bitcoin. The effect is to force delivery of M0 so if the exchange does not have 100% M0 reserves it places further upward pressure on the price. Even if the exchange has 100% reserves there are critical factors related to delay in delivery such as the time it takes to clear the funds on the blockchain (number of confirmations), retrieving the moneroj from a cold wallet, synchronising the node and wallet, if it has not been actively used and last but not least the emotions of the prospective seller. It is easier to sell if the moneroj are already on the exchange than if the seller has to jump over a set of hoops in order to get the moneroj to the exchange in the first place.

On a more practical note the current Monero lending market on Poloniex has not been stress tested during an actual real market short squeeze on Monero, particularly one where the margins of the shorts are completly wiped out and the short squeeze continues.

[phishead]

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...
I think the default assumption is that all exchanges are running fractional reserves and that bitcoin, like any other currency, will have an M0 and an M1 and M2 and so on because of deposits, futures, and other derivatives.

Actually in this case it would be Monero, which at this point is way more illiquid than Bitcoin. The effect is to force delivery of M0 so if the exchange does not have 100% M0 reserves it places further upward pressure on the price. Even if the exchange has 100% reserves there are critical factors related to delay in delivery such as the time it takes to clear the funds on the blockchain (number of confirmations), retrieving the moneroj from a cold wallet, synchronising the node and wallet, if it has not been actively used and last but not least the emotions of the prospective seller. It is easier to sell if the moneroj are already on the exchange than if the seller has to jump over a set of hoops in order to get the moneroj to the exchange in the first place.

On a more practical note the current Monero lending market on Poloniex has not been stress tested during an actual real market short squeeze on Monero, particularly one where the margins of the shorts are completly wiped out and the short squeeze continues.

Sorry for possibly sounding stupid, but what are you guys talking about in regards to M0, M1, and M2? Why does this make monero more liquid than Bitcoin?

[smooth]

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...
I think the default assumption is that all exchanges are running fractional reserves and that bitcoin, like any other currency, will have an M0 and an M1 and M2 and so on because of deposits, futures, and other derivatives.

Actually in this case it would be Monero, which at this point is way more illiquid than Bitcoin. The effect is to force delivery of M0 so if the exchange does not have 100% M0 reserves it places further upward pressure on the price. Even if the exchange has 100% reserves there are critical factors related to delay in delivery such as the time it takes to clear the funds on the blockchain (number of confirmations), retrieving the moneroj from a cold wallet, synchronising the node and wallet, if it has not been actively used and last but not least the emotions of the prospective seller. It is easier to sell if the moneroj are already on the exchange than if the seller has to jump over a set of hoops in order to get the moneroj to the exchange in the first place.

On a more practical note the current Monero lending market on Poloniex has not been stress tested during an actual real market short squeeze on Monero, particularly one where the margins of the shorts are completly wiped out and the short squeeze continues.

Sorry for possibly sounding stupid, but what are you guys talking about in regards to M0, M1, and M2? Why does this make monero more liquid than Bitcoin?

He said it was more illiquid (less liquid).

M1+ refers to monetary substitutes. So someone promising to pay you coins instead of owning (as in full possession) the actual coins.

[arielbit]

Monero community is evidently small - the evidence is the <$10 million marketcap. That does not mean we are about to die, however 

If you want to short, come to daddy   

Risto is Monero's MICROSOFT  Unfortunately his pockets are not as deep 

crypto currency is very resilient, it doesn't need microsoft or risto to survive...it is only a matter of price..monero is not going to the tomb 

[cryptodromeda]

Monero is not going to the tomb 

Monero is not going to the tomb as it's still very much in the womb!

[smoothie]

Monero is not going to the tomb  

Monero is not going to the tomb as it's still very much in the womb!

There are many things that can go in the womb.  

Price looks like it will hold in the range its in. May dip a bit.

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero is not going to the tomb 

Monero is not going to the tomb as it's still very much in the womb!

Relevant:

Large, long-lived complex systems like elephants and humans have extensive gestation and pre-adolsescent growth periods.

Monero hasn't even been born yet and is still a fetus.  Its price is based on ultrasound readings, not direct observation.

We are in the 650 day process of growing a wise crypto-elephant, not a 30 day rush job to pop out a vapid scamcoin chipmunk.

This approach is in contrast to DASH's 'fail fast' vapid scamcoin chipmunk paradigm.

we want to create something super simple.

[ArticMine]

Sorry for possibly sounding stupid, but what are you guys talking about in regards to M0, M1, and M2? Why does this make monero more liquid than Bitcoin?

Here are the definitions for the United States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply. What I called M0 is more properly called  Monetary Base or MB in the USD equivalent.

1) Notes and coins in circulation (outside Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of depository institutions) (currency)
Monero equivalent examples: Monero in an active personal wallet
2) Notes and coins in bank vaults (Vault Cash)
Monero equivalent examples: Monero held by an exchange (actual amount held by the exchange in thier wallets) Monero in an offline wallet stored in a bank vault on some other secure place etc.
3) Federal Reserve Bank credit (required reserves and excess reserves not physically present in banks)
Monero equivalent examples: Not applicable.

M1 and higher. Some kind of fractional reserve backed in whole or part by promises to pay. Bitcoin example: Goxcoin. Contract for difference with a broker such as AvaTrade (partially baked by USD) etc.  Monero example. Promises to pay Monero by a short on Poloniex partially backed by Bitcoin, Dash etc

[jehst]

The greater cryptocurrency community should establish a day where everyone withdraws all of their crypto into their own wallets. Large holders will have to start early because of the daily withdrawal limits.

The idea would be to have an organized bank run every year to destroy the excess money supply created by exchange operators and derivatives.

Some exchanges would collapse. There'd be tons of volatility. Could be fun.

[ArticMine]

The greater cryptocurrency community should establish a day where everyone withdraws all of their crypto into their own wallets. Large holders will have to start early because of the daily withdrawal limits.

The idea would be to have an organized bank run every year to destroy the excess money supply created by exchange operators and derivatives.

Some exchanges would collapse. There'd be tons of volatility. Could be fun.

Fractional reserve is not going to go away. This is why proof of stake coins do not work.

[iCEBREAKER]

The greater cryptocurrency community should establish a day where everyone withdraws all of their crypto into their own wallets. Large holders will have to start early because of the daily withdrawal limits.

The idea would be to have an organized bank run every year to destroy the excess money supply created by exchange operators and derivatives.

Some exchanges would collapse. There'd be tons of volatility. Could be fun.

Fractional reserve is not going to go away. This is why proof of stake coins do not work.

100% PoW is the only way to be safe.

Even PoS+PoW hybrids don't work.  Novacoin (PoS + scrypt) just got hacked.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143221.msg13168415#msg13168415

Can't wait to find out if Dash's PoS + X11 scheme is susceptible to the same technique!  

[ArticMine]

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100% PoW is the only way to be safe.

Even PoS+PoW hybrids don't work.  Novacoin (PoS + scrypt) just got hacked.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143221.msg13168415#msg13168415

Can't wait to find out if Dash's PoS + X11 scheme is susceptible to the same technique!  

I am not familiar with the attack on Novacoin. There are various attacks against POS coins that have been discussed at length. The attack I formulated, the Second Pirate Savings and Trust, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=897488.msg10182752#msg10182752 is based entirely on borrowed stake, which the coin network simply cannot detect. The borrowed stake is generated with the model of the infamous First Pirate Savings and Trust.

With Dash such an attack is actually a lot simpler since there is no need for a bear raid / ponzi to generate the borrowed stake. One simply offers to borrow Dash, from those with less than 1000 Dash, and pay a rate somewhat below the net masternode return. The proceeds are then used to set up a large number of masternodes all with borrowed stake. The attacker could then for example put up a large amount of Monero as collateral to short Dash while at the same time unleashing the rouge masternode attack on the Dash network. Monero is actually a good choice here because the DASH/XMR rate has been very stable over the last few months and the current development vs lack of updated binaries dynamic in Monero.

Edit 1: There is simply no way that the Dash network or the attacker for that matter can detect when the Monero developers are going to release version  0.9 of Monero.
Edit 2: In this case the attacker is playing the DASH/XMR spread (short DASH long XMR) so sudden rise in the price of XMR before the rouge Dash masternode network is set up would likely derail the attack.