[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

...
That's nice.  Reminds me of my childhood, making what I would later find out are called "Demos" using BASIC on a 256k Tandy XT with no hard drive.  And there was no mouse, so using the paint program required copious amonts of arrow keys and space bar.  

Alas, our ancient history and nostalgic reveries have no bearing on the current fact that sig_op verification scales as a quadratic of the tx size.
...

First I am going to comment on the punched card vs the 256 KB Tandy XT. My experience with the punched card was in the mid to late 1970's where this technology was reaching the end of its useful life. The latest punched card standard was formulated in 1928 and together with the tabulating machine was the primary form of data processing for big business and governments until the 1960's when tabulating machines started to get replaced with mainframe computers. The relevant point here is how much data could one store on a punched card. Theoretically 120 bytes and many people quote 80 bytes; however due to the limitations of the then legacy equipment from the 1920's to 1960's the figure was closer to around 10 bytes. Now if we compare this with the 256 KB Tandy XT we have a factor of over 10⁴ in data storage capacity alone. The computers from that era typically came with one or more 5.25in floppy drives and the floppy diskettes would each hold about 360 KB of data.  This difference in storage capacity alone is greater than the difference between 1 MB blocks in core and the 8 GB blocks proposed in XT for Bitcoin.

The next question is why is the ancient history highly relevant here? The reason is business models. While technology changes rapidly business models tend to remain static.  The key lesson from history is to avoid business models that are dependent upon technology staying still. This is why Diner's Club and even American Express form a very small percentage of the fiat payment networks today, yet in say the early 1960's they were the dominant players. Their payment card business models were based upon punched card and tabulating machine technology and started to run into trouble with the advent of computers such as the 256 KB Tandy XT let alone with today's technology.

It is here where we see the strength of Monero's adaptive blocksize technology. If the real cost of digital storage, bandwidth and computer processing power drops by a factor of say 10⁴ (Punched card to 256 KB Tandy XT) then the cost of processing 50,000 TPS becomes in real terms the same as processing 5 TPS today. Bitcoin with the Lightning Network can easily become the Diner's Club of Crypto currency  (an early adopter that becomes obsoleted by changing technology) while Monero can easily become the VISA or MasterCard of Crypto currency (a later adopter that can adapt to changing technology). As a baby boomer in my late 50's I have very little interest in business models that have a very good chance of becoming obsolete in 10 - 20 years. I prefer instead business models that can adapt with technological change. So I choose Monero.

[1715303803]

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[1715303803]

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[GingerAle]

(snipped for cleanliness)

 As a baby boomer in my late 50's I have very little interest in business models that have a very good chance of becoming obsolete in 10 - 20 years. I prefer instead business models that can adapt with technological change. So I choose Monero.

And you forgot the most important part. The "business model" not only *can* adapt - it will adapt. Its in the code. If for whatever reason the core devs engaged in a 10 year debate about whether monero should be a coffee blockchain or a settlement layer and this resulted in *nothing* getting added to the code, current codebase would let the blocksize increase and 40k tps would be filling out holographic datacubes with cryptographic nonsense. .

less human intervention required = better cryptocurrency.

*edited to add "required"

[smooth]

In NoodleDoodle's performance commit he noted a benchmark of 2.5ms/tx on i7-2600. That's 400 tx/sec on a 2011 desktop. A reasonably priced current-gen server (say dual-Xeon 10-core CPUs) is probably several times faster so close to 5K/sec, but I don't know the exact numbers. There is more optimization available still (we aren't using the most optimized elliptic curve asm library available from Bernstein for example, just his sort-of-optimized C library).

With the move to ringCT, it will probably be different (though some of the differences will offset, such as having fewer outputs/tx), and we will have to reevaluate.

Sweet!   

When I tell people about this good news during my Monero evangelizing, how do I explain why our sig_ops are so much faster than Old Grandpa Bitcoin's?

As I understand it (not a cryptographer), there is some inherent performance benefit to the curve25119-based cryptography (or maybe to implementing it on real hardware), but I don't know the magnitude nor how close either implementation is to optimized enough for that to matter.

In reality I think raw signature verification performance is really one of the least important scalability concerns in practice, currently, and both implementations are reasonably optimized once libsecp256k1 is integrated into Bitcoin Core (already done, but I think not released yet).

[ArticMine]

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And you forgot the most important part. The "business model" not only *can* adapt - it will adapt. Its in the code. If for whatever reason the core devs engaged in a 10 year debate about whether monero should be a coffee blockchain or a settlement layer and this resulted in *nothing* getting added to the code, current codebase would let the blocksize increase and 40k tps would be filling out holographic datacubes with cryptographic nonsense. .

less human intervention required = better cryptocurrency.

*edited to add "required"

Yes I agree will rather than can is actually the correct word because the code actually forces the adaptation with technological change.

[smooth]

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Thanks. That means it's not solved at all (which is ashame of course, but good for Monero).

I do like they dont have a tail emission (I hate that in Monero, smells like Keynsianism, just secure the chain with fees).

The tail emission of Monero places the inflation rate of Monero below the historical inflation rate of gold which after all is the "gold standard" of hard money of Austrian school economists. If anyone has a solution to both secure the chain only with fees and at the same time allow for an adaptive blocksize limit there are many in the Bitcoin community that would love to see this solution. This is after all the real issue behind the blocksize debate in Bitcoin.

 

Securing the chain only with fees is fixed. Just don't increase the block size.

This does work, I think. However, Monero does not have a fixed block size. One of the original value propositions (stated explicitly in the white paper) is to remove those arbitrary limits (i.e. who gets to decide on the block size) from Bitcoin, and if you do that, then you do need a tail emission.

[iCEBREAKER]

First I am going to comment on the punched card vs the 256 KB Tandy XT. My experience with the punched card was in the mid to late 1970's where this technology was reaching the end of its useful life. The latest punched card standard was formulated in 1928 and together with the tabulating machine was the primary form of data processing for big business and governments until the 1960's when tabulating machines started to get replaced with mainframe computers. The relevant point here is how much data could one store on a punched card. Theoretically 120 bytes and many people quote 80 bytes; however due to the limitations of the then legacy equipment from the 1920's to 1960's the figure was closer to around 10 bytes. Now if we compare this with the 256 KB Tandy XT we have a factor of over 10⁴ in data storage capacity alone. The computers from that era typically came with one or more 5.25in floppy drives and the floppy diskettes would each hold about 360 KB of data.  This difference in storage capacity alone is greater than the difference between 1 MB blocks in core and the 8 GB blocks proposed in XT for Bitcoin.

The next question is why is the ancient history highly relevant here? The reason is business models. While technology changes rapidly business models tend to remain static.  The key lesson from history is to avoid business models that are dependent upon technology staying still. This is why Diner's Club and even American Express form a very small percentage of the fiat payment networks today, yet in say the early 1960's they were the dominant players. Their payment card business models were based upon punched card and tabulating machine technology and started to run into trouble with the advent of computers such as the 256 KB Tandy XT let alone with today's technology.

It is here where we see the strength of Monero's adaptive blocksize technology. If the real cost of digital storage, bandwidth and computer processing power drops by a factor of say 10⁴ (Punched card to 256 KB Tandy XT) then the cost of processing 50,000 TPS becomes in real terms the same as processing 5 TPS today. Bitcoin with the Lightning Network can easily become the Diner's Club of Crypto currency  (an early adopter that becomes obsoleted by changing technology) while Monero can easily become the VISA or MasterCard of Crypto currency (a later adopter that can adapt to changing technology). As a baby boomer in my late 50's I have very little interest in business models that have a very good chance of becoming obsolete in 10 - 20 years. I prefer instead business models that can adapt with technological change. So I choose Monero.

Good choice.  I am also betting on Monero to win the race to replace fiat (or more precisely, tie with for first with Bitcoin).

I remember being fascinated with punch cards (from the bank) in the early 80s.  It was Reagan's first term; I couldn't have been older than 5 or 6 at the time.    

My XT had a single 3.5" FDD.  But the wizards at Tandy managed to fit a desktop OS with all the goodies on it (undoubtedly influencing my lifelong intolerance of bloatware, as you now see in the blocksize debate).

So never mind the fact that of course the easy gains (low hanging fruit) in storage density are gone, and that the barriers to entering the field have gone up as fast as the price per byte has gone down.

Storage concerns have never been anywhere near the top of the list of reasons why shoveling Visa-like tps onto a blockchain's layer one is bad engineering.  Argumentum ad Seagate does nothing to address the problems and trade-offs with bandwidth/latency, decentralization, perverse incentives (wonky SPV mining, empty blocks), superlinear verification times, and (most importantly) contentious hard forks.

My problem with the 'Bitcoin is doomed and should die so Monero can/will succeed' idea is that it contradicts my investment thesis, wherein BTC and XMR are salt and pepper like complementary goods.

When you crank up the Bitcoin Obituary machine, part of me wonders how Monero can survive should Bitcoin fail to remain antifragile.  

[Hueristic]

This was my first.



Saved my programs on this.

[tifozi]

Not sure if many folks on this thread follow the CryptoNote chess thread, but our anonymous GM (letsplayagame) just came out displaying an XMR donation address in his signature. He had hinted his affinity for Bitcoin before and more recently had added "privacy" in generic terms in his sig, but it is amazing to see him sport the XMR donation address now publicly.

[iCEBREAKER]

Not sure if many folks on this thread follow the CryptoNote chess thread, but our anonymous GM (letsplayagame) just came out displaying an XMR donation address in his signature. He had hinted his affinity for Bitcoin before and more recently had added "privacy" in generic terms in his sig, but it is amazing to see him sport the XMR donation address now publicly.

Is that the dude from Team BBR that #REKT us last time?

Rumor has it he's some grand master type!   

Can you make BTC bets on ICC yet?  Maybe the new Brave browser can help with that...

[tifozi]

Not sure if many folks on this thread follow the CryptoNote chess thread, but our anonymous GM (letsplayagame) just came out displaying an XMR donation address in his signature. He had hinted his affinity for Bitcoin before and more recently had added "privacy" in generic terms in his sig, but it is amazing to see him sport the XMR donation address now publicly.

Is that the dude from Team BBR that #REKT us last time?

Rumor has it he's some grand master type!   

LOL no that was @boolberry, who is most likely not a Grand Master but will be flattered to read this. He did display tremendous skill in that XMR vs BBR Game 1 guiding Team BBR to a win.

@letsplayagame is the anonymous Grand Master who joined the forum and started this thread to play Chess against Bitcointalk. He also posts regularly on his twitter account https://twitter.com/chessbtc talking about Bitcoin and Monero. He decided to join Team XMR in Game 2 of XMR vs BBR series.

[americanpegasus]

Heuristic, me too!  I remember the voice module and how it could synthesize speech using some incredible wizardry.  
  
I programmed my first text adventures on that thing, and dreamed of being able to make games as complex as the NES.  
  
Anyway, I think that and the Apple 2 were among the moments when computing truly broke into the home.  The era of Windows 3.1 was when we really went mainstream.  Sometimes I get so caught up in the bleeding edge of what we're doing, I forget how amazing the journey we've already taken is.  
  
From bleeps and squeeps on a cassette tape 30 years ago to titanic self-contained financial networks that crisscross the globe using the Internet... And all I ultimately want is to recreate that feeling I had as a teenager first playing Wizardry V.  
  
Hmmm.... Hey, I know this train of thought post has taken us to a weird place but I just realized something.  My fascination with games like that and Cryptonote are very similar.  In that game (the Super NES version I played), the labyrinth itself was the main character, filled with puzzles, hallways, traps, and all sorts of fun bits to discover.  You actually felt like you were exploring something ancient and secret, even though you obviously were not.  
  
Learning about Monero and cryptocurrency shares many qualities of that experience: the Monero source code is the labyrinth itself, constantly shifting and filled with all sorts of tricks.  On a higher level, perhaps the final form of the source code is that labyrinth and the coders are intrepid explorers blazing new frontiers for us.  Meanwhile we are all learning about it as we go, and there's no end to the colorful characters that roam the halls.  

As well, there are other parallels.  The first games in the genre, including Wizardry V's predecessor, Wizardry I, all featured static and hard capped dungeon sizes.  (You could say their blocks were capped?).  
  
http://imgur.com/a/vgejg

Then Wizardry V came along and turned that formula on its head by introducing dynamic floor sizes that could be any dimensions the developers wanted:  

http://imgur.com/a/jjnJi

Anyway, here's hoping this is one maze that goes very deep.  I'm looking forward to exploring it with you all.  
  

[jehst]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

[americanpegasus]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

I am looking forward to $50 each with a warm smile.  I will buy a new car then so I can drive something who's windows roll up.  I might try to buy the actual car with Monero if we ever got that high.  
  
Past that, I expect $500 each by 2020.  That's when I can quit my job and travel.
  
Or were you looking for something more grounded in reality, like a jump in price to $2.30?

[Hueristic]

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A whole bunch of cool shit to help us derail the thread for awhile
...  

Yeah, It took me a month on that to make a sprite of an alligator animate across the screen. But I had a great time learning it. I think we all back then wanted to just program games. I swear the crap they push out today has no heart it's just eye candy and a complete waste of time.

BTW tunnels of doom was the only game I ever played on it. Had to mail order it directly from TI.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhfQF9075NQ

[cbeast]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

I am looking forward to $50 each with a warm smile.  I will buy a new car then so I can drive something who's windows roll up.  I might try to buy the actual car with Monero if we ever got that high.  
  
Past that, I expect $500 each by 2020.  That's when I can quit my job and travel.
  
Or were you looking for something more grounded in reality, like a jump in price to $2.30?

You will have to sell it for Bitcoin first which will drive its price up.

[Hueristic]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

Pretty sure we're all thinking GUI then Marketing. Everything seems to be ontrack.

[smooth]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

Better crypto market i.e. capital flowing into the space instead of a bunch of coins competing with each of other for the same scraps, each getting excited when it moves up a few spots on CMC, then disappointed when the pump ends and and some other coin becomes the favorite flavor of the day.

The whole thing is a bit too zero-sum at the moment. Each coin can claim to have various advantages over another and they are all correct to a point, so you mostly get churn, with maybe fundamentals driving some trends over a 1-2+ year timescale. Even that last point is questionable as Ethereum today is close to where Bitshares was a few years ago. Maybe that is fundamentals and relative potential playing out, or maybe just more churn. Hard to say.

Until more people and/or more money recognize the value of cryptocurrencies it will continue to be much the same.

Nevertheless Monero at #18 as I write this is a serious project that compares favorably with higher ranked coins (and one would be hard pressed to find similarly credible projects ranked lower) and seems undervalued to me relative to the peer group, so even in a churn-dominated environment, it can do okay. The GUI and other upcoming improvements can help unlock some of that value.

[americanpegasus]

BTW tunnels of doom was the only game I ever played on it. Had to mail order it directly from TI.

(Sorry, last off topic reply).
 
My GOD!  I remember seeing that game in a magazine ad and dreaming of 3D dungeons thinking it was impossible, but they actually did it!  This is the first time I've ever seen the game in action.  If you have never programmed in TI BASIC before you have no idea what a monumental feat that is... Similar to Cryptonote, every single achievement was a triumph in recreating reality despite programming and technology limitations. 
 
Anyway, thanks for sharing that. 

[RustyNoman]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

The price will rise slowly when the Monero is get used more. But I do not hear big news about its usage in the traditional area.

[TrueCryptonaire]

what would you guys say that we're waiting for (in terms of a higher price)?

The price will rise slowly when the Monero is get used more. But I do not hear big news about its usage in the traditional area.

Monero do not need users in order to rise, the only thing it needs is demand.
It is a controversial if heavy usage is a pain in the ass of bitcoin or an advantage (the majority of merchants just insta-dump btc).

Currently looks like nobody cares about monero: not much buying, not much selling either. There is no short positions (I have coins sitting on the minimum interest rates for some time and nobody borrows them in a week or so).

There is a need for a coin like Monero but looks like the right type of people have not found it yet, and I doubt they will find it from here.
Right type of people are entrepreneurs who can find the demand for Monero.