[XMR] Monero Speculation

[canth]

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Do not personally see any added value in devalueing of ASIC investment's revenue. This will merely move a lot of formerly expensive mining equipent to the waste dump.
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I don't think ANY BTC mining equipment has made its way to a waste dump. There's always someone that has free or nearly free electricity and cooling to take advantage of cheap asic equipment. I run several obsolete miners at my office and they make a few $ per day. Would it be profitable if I had to pay for electricity? No, but the rent includes electricity and it's already a sunk cost.

The halving event will merely move around equipment to more efficient locations. Security may go down (in terms of electricity inputs) but hashing rate will continue to climb.

Here's my question. After the halving event, how much hashing power exists in China? 75%? More?

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[TheKoziTwo]

Broke 0.001 today


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2WH8mHJnhM 

[Rias]

Broke 0.001 today
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2WH8mHJnhM 

It is the first time ever, isn't it? What happened to the support wall at 0.001? It was there all the time I checked.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Broke 0.001 today


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2WH8mHJnhM 

I was not expecting this. I keep seeing more github activity. Is there a recent update for when the next release will be ready? Is it just a matter of more testing and bug fixing now? I hope no new features are being added to 0.9 at this point if that is what is causing the delay.

[TheKoziTwo]

Broke 0.001 today
...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2WH8mHJnhM 

It is the first time ever, isn't it? What happened to the support wall at 0.001? It was there all the time I checked.

The all time low on poloniex is 0.00091, some of the support at 0.001 was sold into, and some of it was pulled.

[Rias]

The all time low on poloniex is 0.00091, some of the support at 0.001 was sold into, and some of it was pulled.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the total buy volume this morning was about 80 BTC. Now it's 35 (down from 42 a couple of minutes ago). Someone figuring out the new support level?

[dreamspark]

I'd love to buy 0.0006. Feels like if BTC keeps going up we could easily see that. Bid side is non existent. Can't even cash out $13k without the price going to 0.0005

[TheKoziTwo]

The all time low on poloniex is 0.00091, some of the support at 0.001 was sold into, and some of it was pulled.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the total buy volume this morning was about 80 BTC. Now it's 35 (down from 42 a couple of minutes ago). Someone figuring out the new support level?

About 35 BTC was dumped today, around 12 BTC of buy support pulled. You can tell there has been 3-4 dumps last few hours:

[e-coinomist]

So more complex than I would have considered. One forecasted outcome has catched my attention:

If 1 MB is still in effect & the exchanges have made agreements with large mining operations to prioritize their transactions (akin to that chinese company), then the newcomers won't notice a thing.

won't notice a thing on withdrawals. how about deposits? hmm.. all members of these prioritization agreements need complete lists of adresses to include, and whom they do belong to. separated into priority tier classes, VIPs first and stuff.
do. not. like.

[ArticMine]

It is the one year anniversary of the last tagged release of Monero on December 08, 2014. The market is marking this anniversary by going below 0.001.

[mrkavasaki]

didnt i have warned you?

but i think its still not to late to short from here
we will see sub 0.005 very soon

[luigi1111]

The price is getting lower because buy volume is lower than sell volume  

Nothing is special about it. Lack of new user, holders just had enough and don't want to buy more, inflation is still high

To put the bold in context, daily inflation is about 0.1% currently and monthly is 3%. Falling fast.

https://moneroeconomy.com/wiki/emission-rate

The whole inflation thing is a bit of a misnomer. In reality, the faster emission exponentially decays, the lower inflation is. BTC's inflation was significantly higher on day 598 (0.16750% BTC vs 0.10801% XMR).

On the other hand, emission as % of total supply (though such a hard number doesn't exist for XMR) is still way higher.

[luigi1111]

In either one of those cases, the halving will occur. The price will drop a little bit. Over weeks the difficulty will drop as older hardware is taken offline. When the difficulty drops enough, the big mining firms will fire up their unnannounced, non-released 2 nm asics, driving more small miners off the network.

So, the halving will facilitate centralization really.

Really, after the halving, the price will depend on how much fiat the big players have available to burn on electricity as they wait for prices to increase. If they have to sell their bitcoin to cover electricity then they are done, as well as the price of bitcoin. However, if the big mining firms have arranged with other big players in the network for some type of service contract (see exchange <-> mining described above), then they can probably hold out for a while and not sell as *much* of their BTC to cover the electricity, which will keep the supply of available bitcoin limited.

None of this makes any sense to me.

[dEBRUYNE]

In case anyone missed it, a few updates from Shen Noether regarding Confidential Transactions (CT) for Monero:

Edit 11/21/2015: things are slowly coming together - MLSAG's have been coded in python (https://github.com/ShenNoether/MiniNero/blob/master/MLSAG.py) and then I need to get the RingCT code using these rather than the LWW sigs. After this I should be able to finish the size analysis in the paper and then hopefully get a really cleaned up copy available.

edit 11/27/2015: demo version of RingCT using the MLSAG's is coded - next up is implementing 1. Diffie helman passing of masks and 2. implement a short representation of amounts

Most recent version:

https://www.overleaf.com/read/qzgytbyyxvyf

Some more updates:

edit 11/27/2015: demo version of RingCT using the MLSAG's is coded - next up is implementing 1. Diffie helman passing of masks and 2. implement a short representation of amounts

&

edit 12/4/2015: demo version with ECDH passing and short reps is implemented and written up - next is to get this paper looking nicer

Implementation: https://github.com/ShenNoether/MiniNero/commit/4c11983fffb8764837af6727052dc1f34b52c9e4
Write up: https://www.overleaf.com/read/qzgytbyyxvyf

[nioc]

Thanks for today's Moneroj @100

[Hueristic]

Nice volume and price up from what now looks like a definitive bottom test in spite of BTC rise...

Much more positive.

Not sure if it is the bottom. The price is around $0.4 for about a year now. It is one of the stablest coin in the world.

Is this how you feel better about your investment crashing? Justifying it by saying it's been stable in USD?
XMR has not been stable. It's been crashing hard. Except for a brief period in the pre-exchange era the price is at all time lows. I'm just sitting here hoping it won't break 0.001 support.

If XMR is not going to outperform BTC why not just own BTC instead? If it's USD you want it makes more sense to hold BTC as long as the ratio falls. I'm not going to be happy with XMR at $1, $10 or even $100 if the XMR/BTC ratio crashes. I never watch the USD price, is seems completely irrelevant.

A falling XMR/BTC ratio indicates failure to compete in the cryptocurrency space.

Lol, your statement is patently false. Everything (all commodities) including BTC are tied to USD. You may have fooled yourself into believing otherwise but that's all your doing is deluding yourself.

Okay, even if so, the BTC "commodity" increasing while the XMR "commodity" is falling or not rising (both relative to USD) indicates a failure of XMR to compete with BTC. I don't see the counterargument here.

A failure to hold equilibrium during  bubble in a manipulated market is not indicative to a project failure. If there is a significant drop ratio beyond the average of other main alts then I would be concerned.

I'm thinking the price is being held down intentionally until the Gui is released when those that are in control have accumulated their limit.

The only other reason I can think of is that big holders know something the general public doesn't like a fatal flaw and are divesting as slowly as they can.

Doesn't necessarily have to be whales keeping the price down, could also very well be just going the same way as all alts are going. In other words, following the altcoin trend. Although I agree there is some manipulation going on, I wrote more extensively about that earlier. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12813307#msg12813307

The only other reason I can think of is something is trying to destroy the coin out of fear (or is trying to wash through as many coins as possible for a myriad or reasons) but if I make that argument I'd be accused of being part of the tinfoil hat brigade.

[GingerAle]

I really don't think it's anymore complicated than peeps want to get their holdings into Bitcoin so they can be poised to cash out, because speculating is the only thing to do with any coin, and the primary creators of xmr are bonnets ( probably ) , and all they do is sell to exchanges ( probably ).
Its been said before and I'll say it again. Monero is doing exactly what it was designed to do by having such a steep emission. The barrier to entry is low ( well, if u can make the software work )

But therein is the bootstrapping, because those that realize what it is will get the software to work, which secures the network.

Hence, no gui.

[newb4now]

Doesn't necessarily have to be whales keeping the price down, could also very well be just going the same way as all alts are going. In other words, following the altcoin trend. Although I agree there is some manipulation going on, I wrote more extensively about that earlier. See:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg12813307#msg12813307

Yes alts being down in general is the most likely reason. I remain very bullish on Monero long term.

[jehst]

All alts suffer as bitcoin begins to rise. Isn't that always how it's been?

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

LTC:
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

XRP:
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/xrp/btc/poloniex/alltime

XMR:
http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/xmr/btc/poloniex/alltime


XRP is non-proof of work and shows the same ratio. XMR is post-Gox coin and shows the same ratio. This ratio is common to all altcoins regardless of their individual characteristics and regardless of time.

Therefore, we as altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.  

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

[megges]

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

That's exactly what will happen, it's the same in all altcoins.
The big question is when will it happen, and how deep it will perhaps dump, to shake out the week hands and fill the bags before the one with the filled bags will push it up fast and hard.

A good recent example for that action is CLAMS in my view, look at the 29 nov dump, and the topics shortly after "is clams dead", "why the price drop" ... and then, boom it explodes to the upside, noobs sold out of fear and someone pushed it up after. It's often the same play.