[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am holding.
Is there massive short positions or people just withdrawn the coins from lending markets? 24 hrs ago we had approximately 100 kXMR in lending markets, now the supply is only 20 kXMR.

Hint: Margin trading. Keep your coins, the proper verb is "hodl"  

Yes it looks like the dump is completely artificial done by shorters.
If it is done via shorting, there are forces to embrace any significiant dumping via short covering. If there will not be dumping, the covering will take Monero to the next orbit into extraterrestial realms.

May the Force be with us.


P.S. I increased my interest rate.

[Bicmac1973]

Shorting means betting on further price drops, so are these shorters idiots, insanely altruistic, or do they know something I don't?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Shorting means betting on further price drops, so are these shorters idiots, insanely altruistic, or do they know something I don't?

If the dump is originated from short sells, then I guess they are betting on further drops. Perhaps they attempt to create panic atmosphere with sudden extreme moves.

[shanem]

Many people got burnt on the dump in all the altcoins. Many of the altcoins have gone down sharply. This is the chance to accumulate more Monero if you believe in this coin. The price is cheap right now compared to one day ago.

[Bagatell]

Shorting means betting on further price drops, so are these shorters idiots, insanely altruistic, or do they know something I don't?

They are fallible. As a swing HODLer I can attest to that. They are herd animals (see the troll boxes). They have Ferengi blood and suffer from violent attacks of FOMO. (I have no hard proof of  this). Put these three things together and it becomes obvious that at times a significant proportion of them will do stupid things at the same time.

[birr]

Shorting means betting on further price drops, so are these shorters idiots, insanely altruistic, or do they know something I don't?

Simple:  shorters wagered that a drop would follow the rise, and they figured to make some money on it.  Short term speculation.

[GingerAle]

I wonder how much money the mega-manipulator made on poloniex in the past week. A LOT of money just rolled through that place.

im too lazy to track the bitcoin, but here's a start:

https://www.blockseer.com/addresses/17irB8xLxhVRerCoUyypnmpoak3QBpVp2z

thats the polo cold wallet address.

[binaryFate]

I wonder how much money the mega-manipulator made on poloniex in the past week. A LOT of money just rolled through that place.

im too lazy to track the bitcoin, but here's a start:

https://www.blockseer.com/addresses/17irB8xLxhVRerCoUyypnmpoak3QBpVp2z

thats the polo cold wallet address.

Not a multi-sig???  

[dEBRUYNE]

The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

[iCEBREAKER]

111k dump...interesting...

Lots of margin, I am guessing.  Squeeze should come quick, if so.  Someone remind me where to look up the margin positions on poloniex?

They don't publish it. You can only infer some things from watching the lending market

You can also do recon by offering XMR loans around key resistance points.  They act as trip wires to tell you when there is real demand from the short side.

[ArticMine]

The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

The 165k-170k breakout zone also corresponds to the low of the May 2014 - September 2014 trading range. The upper part of this range around 270k has not been tested during this breakout yet.

[rangedriver]

The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

+1

I think we're in the middle of the period technically known as "the chill out zone".

Once shorters have reached the bar and gotten a drink, there then inevitably follows a period of "polite conversation" followed by an agreed and accumulative shuffle up to a feverous triple-top.

From there it's a question of what tunes are playing on the sound-system.

[macsga]

i dont get your hint macsga, did you look at the data after all or is this just your conclusion without looking at the exchange?
to me it looks like lending supply is indeed drying out, why this is happening is hard to say.
open positions could be forced to close once they are not able to renew ? or is it possible to change the max lending rate % ?
btw its now at 48k again allready.

I'm looking at the data as clueless as everybody else. My opinion is that you can't judge a chaotic system by just "looking" at it (at least not in short term; in the sense of a couple of years that XMR is here). Since XMR came along my way it really reminded me what BTC really should have been in the first place. None of them is perfect but both fulfill "the job".

"The job" is to have the ability to have electronic money out of the banking system, free of the human greed (and stupidity) to inflate it at will just because they can. The main difference of XMR vs BTC is the former is being able to certify that you may hold your "money" absolutely anonymously (at least more than BTC is).

A long story short; I'm not a TA man. I'm a man of fundamentals. In my world both coins are here to stay, each for their own reasons. They just need their time. As for my trading capabilities; I can only say that I *completely* suck as a trader so you shouldn't listen to me more than anyone else in here. That excludes people like klee and his thread which, IMHO really deserves to be watched, if you're into trading.

Regards.

[klee]

i dont get your hint macsga, did you look at the data after all or is this just your conclusion without looking at the exchange?
to me it looks like lending supply is indeed drying out, why this is happening is hard to say.
open positions could be forced to close once they are not able to renew ? or is it possible to change the max lending rate % ?
btw its now at 48k again allready.

I'm looking at the data as clueless as everybody else. My opinion is that you can't judge a chaotic system by just "looking" at it (at least not in short term; in the sense of a couple of years that XMR is here). Since XMR came along my way it really reminded me what BTC really should have been in the first place. None of them is perfect but both fulfill "the job".

"The job" is to have the ability to have electronic money out of the banking system, free of the human greed (and stupidity) to inflate it at will just because they can. The main difference of XMR vs BTC is the former is being able to certify that you may hold your "money" absolutely anonymously (at least more than BTC is).

A long story short; I'm not a TA man. I'm a man of fundamentals. In my world both coins are here to stay, each for their own reasons. They just need their time. As for my trading capabilities; I can only say that I *completely* suck as a trader so you shouldn't listen to me more than anyone else in here. That excludes people like klee and his thread which, IMHO really deserves to be watched, if you're into trading.

Regards.

The last signal though was not as strong as it should be and we had a sell but statistically there will be some failed signals.

Also, I think this is a bear trap and price will quickly recover above 200k.

Maybe some flash crash in the 13-15 area first, where the shorts have put walls hoping to close their positions there.

I would love to see them panic closing higher though (or even getting margin called), despite wanting to buy more in the same area! 

[dEBRUYNE]

Some interesting comments on reddit today that deserve a crosspost. The question was: Is Monero a get rich quick scheme?

Warz' answer:

If you have to ask this question, I'd argue that the answer is no, do not buy monero. Nobody knows the future of monero. It can succeed, and it can fail. Investing is risky and speculative. If you are looking for "get rich quick schemes" you are doing it wrong.

Instead learn about the technology behind monero and start to ponder which ways an anonymous crypto currency can impact the world. When you have done enough research and learned more perhaps you will feel confident to invest. Don't just be a sheep and jump onto something because people praise it, find out why they praise it.

Fluffypony's answer:

Some people don't like it when I'm overly pragmatic, but I think it's important that you understand the scenarios.

• The most likely scenario is that Monero fails entirely, due to lack of funding / a major break in Curve25519 or some other cryptography / general apathy towards financial privacy.
• The second-most-likely scenario is that Monero never has a meteoric rise in value because it has no fixed emission (from 2023 onwards it becomes slightly disinflationary, <1% inflation a year) and it never achieves more than niche usage.
• A less likely scenario is that Monero does have a meteoric rise in value, not due to artificially limited emission, but due to some uptake in its use (ie. it is priced based on utility, not based on artificial scarcity).
• Perhaps the least likely (at this stage anyway) is that Bitcoin flounders and collapses at a time when Monero has achieved a degree of maturity in its development, and there is an in-rush of former Bitcoin holders (well, those whose FOMO is greater than their fear that the tail emission will never make them "rich").

Given these scenarios, if you have limited funds I would advise that you DON'T buy any Monero. If you are not comfortable with the massive risk you are taking, then DON'T buy Monero. If you want to play around with Monero then DO buy a very small amount (I assume $10 wouldn't be too much of a hit).

If you have read up on all the aspects of Monero, and are completely familiar with and comfortable with the risks, then I would suggest taking a different strategy than sinking a large portion of your paycheck in: rather buy a little bit every month, but buy it consistently. If Monero evaporates you will have lost relatively little, if it stays somewhat stable you will have lost nothing, and if it has a meteoric rise your then-cheap stash will be worth substantially more.

However: if you choose to do the latter and buy some Monero to hold, remember that you are very much able to influence your investment's fate. If you expect to sit back and for Monero to magically rise, that is very unlikely to happen. If, however, you get involved and see what you can do to build up the burgeoning Monero economy, that is beneficial for you and for Monero. If you are not a developer, then you can still contribute content and fixed on the website - start by checking out the Monero community Trello board (/u/stefioan will help you with details, if you're interested).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/468qwv/is_monero_a_get_rich_quick_scheme/


This post of aminorex also deserves a crosspost:

It has been a long time since I had enough time and energy to express my views on the trajectory and progress of XMR.  But today I wrote something I think suitable to the moment, and someone might find it encouraging in times to come, so I will cross-post it here, with apologies for any redundancy:

It is easy to take a triumphalist tone during the rips.  The real reward comes to those who can keep that flame burning through the dips.  In fact, I believe we are much, much nearer the bottom than the top, even now.

There really is, even now, almost two full years into the game, nothing real and present which can compare to the excellent qualities of XMR as digital currency, pure and simple.  Many innovative cryptocoins have introduced interesting technologies and economic models, but all of those features actually damage their ability to be used as currency.  Those that come closest in features fail in various and diverse ways such that their distant miniscule liquidity is a profound and persistent handicap.

I have always said that if a superior currency were to emerge, I would change my allegiance as circumstances dictated.  I see less and less likelihood of such an eventuality with each passing million USD of liquidity added to XMR.  No, this is not a pump and dump.  It is one tiny step, with leaps and bounds yet to come, and every inch of the way is hard fought, and every victory well-earned -- some paid for dearly. It is earned primarily by excellence in technology, and secured by honest and transparent dealings.

There are at least 20 trillions of USD in wealth held privately, away from prying eyes, extortionists, thieves, and kidnappers, which currently rely on very illiquid instruments, and some significant proportion of those trillions will need to pass through the eye of our little needle at some point.  I believe that our tiny trickle will be compelled to grow into a mighty torrent of liquidity, through many disruptive stages over several years.  And it has not begun but one ten thousandth of the way yet.

XMR technology continues a long methodical and responsible march towards a balance of those specific features required to function as an international fully distributed private currency, without counterparty risk, without vulnerability to the dictat of a central authority.  The management of such an enterprise is frought with pitfalls, as nearly every cryptocoins project has demonstrated. Yet the meritocratic grass-roots development regime of XMR has avoided these traps nimbly, with a lot of hard work, motivated by a vision of positive social value and of just and worthy personal reward deriving from that honest added value.  

I am encouraged and energized to be a small part of such an economy, and grateful for the opportunity to participate in some small way in the project of making the world a freer, safer, more just place for generations to come.

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.

[bitebits]

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

Now that is some serious speculation. Nice one.

[dEBRUYNE]

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

To be clear, I think that is intended as response to the "But it will not be big part of my wealth" part.

[RAJSALLIN]

I'd be interested in Monero related cross posts. This is the only XMR thread I follow. Think it's a nice thread and doesn't have to be 100% TA focus.

[bitebits]

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

To be clear, I think that is intended as response to the "But it will not be big part of my wealth" part.

Something went wrong with my post, but yes that is what I tried to refer to. Thanks.

[jehst]

if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.