[XMR] Monero Speculation

[binaryFate]

Either I am very good at this, or a whale is reading me or both!

And no, I am not behind this (not a whale anymore after my coins were stolen)...

Sorry to hear that.. Question: What are peoples opinions on how many XMR one would have to own to be considered a "whale"?

A good way to answer that is to consider how many true whales you think there can be. If you assume 1% then with 50% of the coin supply held by such whales there could be no more than 50 whales. Pick your own numbers.

And there are many whales, same as there are many peers, but a marquess is not a prince, but beats an earl.

You want everyone to figure there's just one king? 
Would that be presomptuous maybe?

[rpietila]

You want everyone to figure there's just one king? 

I am happy to be the king in the game. If someone else has more moneros, it is not a problem for me. They are so cheap that it is a wonder if someone doesn't have. (all I know have 20, 50, 100k or more so I'm not sticking out).

If you want a real challenge, try to get more CKG than I do. 

[BTKC]

I would call 1% of the current supply a whale, so around 110,000 XMR.

Whale definition fluctuates with the price, if Monero shoots above $5, 0.1% is pretty much a whale

Less than .1% has the potential to make someone extremely wealthy IF Monero can achieve its objective of establishing an important privacy hub.

I predict that in 10 years .1% of Monero will either be worth close to zero or be enough to retire on. Failure may be more likely but the potential reward is so great that the risk appeals to me.

Interesting thoughts.. I completely agree

[binaryFate]

I would call 1% of the current supply a whale, so around 110,000 XMR.

Whale definition fluctuates with the price, if Monero shoots above $5, 0.1% is pretty much a whale

Less than .1% has the potential to make someone extremely wealthy IF Monero can achieve its objective of establishing an important privacy hub.

I predict that in 10 years .1% of Monero will either be worth close to zero or be enough to retire on. Failure may be more likely but the potential reward is so great that the risk appeals to me.

Interesting thoughts.. I completely agree

rpietila has been explicitly advocating this unreavaled risk/reward ratio since very early on. All early adopters implicitly figured that out anyway.

IMO this ratio is better than ever right now, as time goes by, bringing confidence and many great technical improvements, while still in the same rough price range.

[Hueristic]

There's a lot of pressure not to cross the 20k mark. I've been watching this for a while now and just when somebody puts a bid over 20, somebody dumps coins and drops the ask below that. I think that either somebody is desperate to keep the price down (margin calls?) or this is orchestrated by a group for accumulation reasons.

FWIW, I managed to get some more at 18xx today on an instant dump.  

I  agree

[americanpegasus]

I have a present for you, Monero fans.  

[ArticMine]

You want everyone to figure there's just one king?  

...
If you want a real challenge, try to get more CKG than I do.  

CON and the related item S-CON could prove to be far more interesting in CK than CKG, if XMR/USD moves up sharply causing CK to enter into a period of hyper deflation.

[americanpegasus]

Hey, risto.  Get me a sprite sheet of CryptoKingdom assets and I'll put together a CK MS Paint ad for you.

[smoothie]

I have a present for you, Monero fans.  

What monero operating system?

What did I miss?

[smooth]

What monero operating system?

What did I miss?

http://nodebox.link

[smoothie]

What monero operating system?

What did I miss?

http://nodebox.link

thanks for the link

[shmadz]

There's a lot of pressure not to cross the 20k mark. I've been watching this for a while now and just when somebody puts a bid over 20, somebody dumps coins and drops the ask below that. I think that either somebody is desperate to keep the price down (margin calls?) or this is orchestrated by a group for accumulation reasons.

FWIW, I managed to get some more at 18xx today on an instant dump.  

Resistance at five hundred to one was expected.
https://twitter.com/theshmadz/status/698448562451906560

Breaking and holding above that level would be something interesting.

[americanpegasus]

More massive volume with an upward green candle on Polo.  250 bitcoins in a couple of hours!  Whoa!

[tifozi]

Right time to catch people off guard  It's strange to see people announcing their sells here openly (and buys for that matter) and requesting a price point they would like to get back in. For such a small market cap and at a time they should be recruiting more people to expand into Monero, these mind games are detrimental to the market and make no sense.

[americanpegasus]

Right time to catch people off guard  It's strange to see people announcing their sells here openly (and buys for that matter) and requesting a price point they would like to get back in. For such a small market cap and at a time they should be recruiting more people to expand into Monero, these mind games are detrimental to the market and make no sense.

Exactly.  We need to stop thinking of this as a zero sum game.  Monero isn't just a positive-sum game: it could end up being one of the greatest in history as the trillions of dollars that the world would like to keep secret slowly trickles into our network. 
 
But I know that I, as I assume others do, announce their buys here to be more transparent and public about their dealings.

[tifozi]

 
But I know that I, as I assume others do, announce their buys here to be more transparent and public about their dealings.

Try substantiating those "buys" with screenshots of your trade if you are so inclined to be transparent. Half of the time it is just made up lies from propagandists who think this is as big as Bitcoin speculation and newbies are being warned to watch for such posts.

[Melbustus]

A few observations:

1) The alts that have been on a tear lately have been the ones which offer to serve a different niche than Bitcoin. Hence, Litecoin has gone nowhere during this alt-rally. This is tremendously satisfying. In my opinion, this represents a much-needed maturation of the crypto-market.

2) As others have noted, Eth has driven crazy volume and liquidity to Polo. If memory serves, the all-time volume high for any coin on Polo prior to the current Eth rally was XMR, and that was around or under 2000BTC (right?). Eth cracked 40000BTC for one or two days last week. That's ~20x the prior.

3) I still think Monero is going to face headwinds down the road due to perceived or real competition with ZCash, but with the liquidity present now, it could get interesting regardless.

[americanpegasus]

Try substantiating those "buys" with screenshots of your trade if you are so inclined to be transparent. Half of the time it is just made up lies from propagandists who think this is as big as Bitcoin speculation and newbies are being warned to watch for such posts.

I suppose I could, but I prefer to give my word and let my word stand on its own.  I have been nothing but transparent with the community so far, and my reputation is worth a lot, lot more than some measly $thousands from lying about my positions.  I liquidated my Bitcoin holdings yesterday and went full Monero / Aeon for the foreseeable future. 

[dnaleor]

We had the choice beween a very fast uptrend and a fast uptrend.
Market chose the former

[americanpegasus]

Well it's an exciting night on Poloniex, for sure.  The volatility is crazy.  Some fools are dipping their toes into margin to go short, some fools are dipping to go long.  The volatility is wild, and so is the volume. 
 
I would not want to be short something like this breaking out into new highs on strong volume though - that is a recipe for disaster.  Hell, the VNL scam is seeing new volume and price, and I'm scared to short even *that*.  I cannot imagine how cosmically suicidal you would have to be to try to scalp a few shekels from a small XMR downward movement. 
 
On the other hand, every short is a forced buyer down the road (likely very shortly down the road) so bring it on.  Losing vast sums of money is a strong character builder, assuming you pick yourself back up and try again.