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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312335 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
luigi1111
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December 30, 2014, 07:13:55 PM
 #2121

The only thing going for it is that it's starting to be used in the dark corners of the internet now as an alternative to darkcoin.

You mind sharing some examples of this??

I'll see if I can find where it was cited, I think it was on either deepdotweb or reddit that was reporting that listings on Nucleus (similar to SR) were showing people asking for Darkcoin or Monero.

Either way, the casual Monero user is going to be interested in the anonymity of using it vs darkcoin/darksend. I could be wrong in my perception of what the casual monero user is going to use it for. Setting libertarians aside, what's the general use case for it vs something like cloakcoin? I think it's acceptance on more exchange and market acceptance.  Like I said, I could be wrong.

What's a cloakcoin?

Edit: that's a joke. CLOAK is an abandoned project whose anonymity didn't work. Its market cap is now ~$25,000.
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Hueristic
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December 30, 2014, 07:14:55 PM
 #2122

The only thing going for it is that it's starting to be used in the dark corners of the internet now as an alternative to darkcoin.

You mind sharing some examples of this??

I'll see if I can find where it was cited, I think it was on either deepdotweb or reddit that was reporting that listings on Nucleus (similar to SR) were showing people asking for Darkcoin or Monero.

Either way, the casual Monero user is going to be interested in the anonymity of using it vs darkcoin/darksend. I could be wrong in my perception of what the casual monero user is going to use it for. Setting libertarians aside, what's the general use case for it vs something like cloakcoin? I think it's acceptance on more exchange and market acceptance.  Like I said, I could be wrong.

speaking of libertarians, Is anyone actively on their site promoting? I'd check the MEW thread but I'll be damned if I'm going to pay to give free marketing idea's.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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December 30, 2014, 08:35:21 PM
 #2123

reality sinked in fast with this one. makes for an easier trading decision.

How many times can you sell the same coins? I thought it happened already in 170s..?

what i meant by easier, is it's easier in letting this one go as it might stay flat/go slowly down.  win or lose, i try to avoid buying and waiting (hoping), unless my paper profit is really huge and can relax a bit.

i'm hoping the driver comes back tho.  but it looks like he may already have left.  i will sell if it stays like this for a few more days.


We are at the price we were only 2/3 DAYS ago.  That's a very short time to base a decision on....



i like trading trends.  i don't buy and hold (hope) anymore.  i am too impatient for it.  having said that, giving it a few more days before making a decision. i'd rather take a small loss than taking a big one cos i was holding (hoping)...



I'd take a couple of thousand off your hands. PM if considering dumping and we'll see if we can strike a deal.
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December 30, 2014, 08:54:00 PM
Last edit: December 30, 2014, 09:13:02 PM by aminorex
 #2124

Just curious, and you have no need to answer this...  but did you limit yourself to 0.1% supply?

I limited the collective which I represent to 0.1% median mean per capita.  Whether you consider that a yes or a no is up to you.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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December 30, 2014, 09:09:34 PM
 #2125

Just curious, and you have no need to answer this...  but did you limit yourself to 0.1% supply?

I limited the collective which I represent to 0.1% median per capita.  Whether you consider that a yes or a no is up to you.



He who holds the keys I suppose...
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December 31, 2014, 01:38:59 AM
Last edit: December 31, 2014, 03:36:12 AM by tokeweed
 #2126

reality sinked in fast with this one. makes for an easier trading decision.

How many times can you sell the same coins? I thought it happened already in 170s..?

what i meant by easier, is it's easier in letting this one go as it might stay flat/go slowly down.  win or lose, i try to avoid buying and waiting (hoping), unless my paper profit is really huge and can relax a bit.

i'm hoping the driver comes back tho.  but it looks like he may already have left.  i will sell if it stays like this for a few more days.


We are at the price we were only 2/3 DAYS ago.  That's a very short time to base a decision on....



i like trading trends.  i don't buy and hold (hope) anymore.  i am too impatient for it.  having said that, giving it a few more days before making a decision. i'd rather take a small loss than taking a big one cos i was holding (hoping)...




make me.

edit:  this is the xmr speculation thread. so if you can't take it..


R


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December 31, 2014, 02:57:57 AM
 #2127

People who panic sell, panic buy, daytrade, etc all do us a favor.

They provide volume.  Volume is what is needed for a real economy.  Or for dark markets / any markets to be interested.

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December 31, 2014, 03:33:52 AM
 #2128

yeah. hope there's no panic sell tho as this is all looking like a false break out.

R


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coins101
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December 31, 2014, 04:28:34 AM
 #2129

People who panic sell, panic buy, daytrade, etc all do us a favor.

They provide volume.  Volume is what is needed for a real economy.  Or for dark markets / any markets to be interested.



its an expensive time of year.

If you have a reasonable mining operation, you have electricity costs, as well as Christmas presents, travel, extra food, beer and then there is New Year celebration, the extra retail discounting, etc. Pay day is also a while out.

It's a good time to be a buyer.  A little more than I was paying during the first exchange dumps, but I'm looking to be a buyer again if the January trend keeps looking on the bearish side.

ps.

Looks like the law caught up with your target, Mr LTC ASICs. Bet you are somewhat pleased, although out of pocket.
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December 31, 2014, 04:53:34 AM
 #2130

yeah. hope there's no panic sell tho as this is all looking like a false break out.

Your pretty high strung for a PotHead. You should try a chill pill.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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December 31, 2014, 05:25:14 AM
 #2131

yeah. hope there's no panic sell tho as this is all looking like a false break out.

Your pretty high strung for a PotHead. You should try a chill pill.

Now I don't care who you are, that's funny right there.

Jump you fuckers! | The thing about smart motherfuckers is they sound like crazy motherfuckers to dumb motherfuckers. | My sig space for rent for 0.01 btc per week.
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December 31, 2014, 06:51:35 AM
 #2132


R


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December 31, 2014, 06:57:19 AM
 #2133

Let's cool it with the pics on the thread, and things a bit more thoughtful and respectful. Thanks

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December 31, 2014, 11:50:56 AM
 #2134

My observations:

1. The rise was with a higher volume than the corresponding fall.

Conclusion: the buyers were the suckers (short-term at least). Despite seemingly no resistance for the rise, there has been even less resistance for the fall.

2. Price is right, volume could be faked, walls can be anything.

The old wisdom is that only a trade that is registered for you, means anything. All else could be smoke and mirrors. And often is.

3. My realistic (trying to be as little wishful as possible) estimate of the short-term (30 days) bottoming:

* 30% - a new low is reached below 00091
* 40% - double bottom formed in 00100 area as a long process
* 30% - the bottom is higher (00110-00133) and then turns up (uptrend in force and this being only a Fib correction)

4. My realistic (trying not to forget the positive black swans) estimate of the medium-term (90 days) upside:

* 10% - return to the trading range of 00350 or higher
* 20% - going over 00200 and staying there
* 40% - staying above 00100
* 30% - downtrend continuing below 00100, incl coin abandoned etc. cases







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December 31, 2014, 12:50:28 PM
 #2135

the slow uptrend would be a nice bottom for a higher low:


edit: probably combined with the previous low at 0.00124. Could be the resistance point we will be waiting for Wink
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December 31, 2014, 03:05:28 PM
 #2136

the slow uptrend would be a nice bottom for a higher low:


edit: probably combined with the previous low at 0.00124. Could be the resistance point we will be waiting for Wink

Using bottom connectors as pivot lines, I see ~140k and 124k-127k as likely up-turning zones in case of a continued downward.  Anything over 160 seems more likely to end up in a confirmation of the upward breakout.  Sentiment seems pretty bearish, which tends to make the upside breakout more likely.  If you really want to make bank on cheap coins, you have to be willing to disgorge in the 160k region, or else add capital.  Given such a choice, I have always added capital, but now I am at my moral holding limit, so I need to re-evaluate.  Should I add capital temporarily, disgorge, or abstain?  Disgorging is too risky for me, of that I am sure.  The upward price-chase is very damaging to average cost.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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December 31, 2014, 03:19:39 PM
 #2137

the slow uptrend would be a nice bottom for a higher low:


edit: probably combined with the previous low at 0.00124. Could be the resistance point we will be waiting for Wink

Using bottom connectors as pivot lines, I see ~140k and 124k-127k as likely up-turning zones in case of a continued downward.  Anything over 160 seems more likely to end up in a confirmation of the upward breakout.  Sentiment seems pretty bearish, which tends to make the upside breakout more likely.  If you really want to make bank on cheap coins, you have to be willing to disgorge in the 160k region, or else add capital.  Given such a choice, I have always added capital, but now I am at my moral holding limit, so I need to re-evaluate.  Should I add capital temporarily, disgorge, or abstain?  Disgorging is too risky for me, of that I am sure.  The upward price-chase is very damaging to average cost.


I urge you to abandon all "moral" holding limits. There is no morality in markets. The victors will reap the reward and the general populace will take it in stride so long as the playing field was level. Satoshi Nakamato and Hal Finney hold/held heaps of bitcoin, and very few of us have a problem with that. To the victors go the spoils. And if you are so prescient as to see gold where others see mud, then you too deserve to be similarly rewarded, and will be.

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December 31, 2014, 03:28:42 PM
Last edit: December 31, 2014, 03:38:47 PM by aminorex
 #2138

I urge you to abandon all "moral" holding limits.

I might have used "rational" in place of "moral".  My underlying thought is that a set of core holders which is inadequate to bootstrap an economy is unlikely to survive an NDE, and in the long-term, extreme concentration is an impediment to adoption -- a premise which your NDE post certainly brings into question.

While I remain confident in the technical and structural superiority of XMR relative to its present competition, an NDE which coincided with the introduction of a superior alternative would end in a DE.  An NDE takes time to play out, and that is time during which the opportunity exists for a superior alternative to emerge (since liquidity is a component of the fitness function).

You would like to convince me to add capital in case of a downturn, because you don't have any objection to me increasing risk (since it is not your risk, so it off-loads your risk).  That's cool.  But I'm not convinced that it is healthy for the coin.  The health of the coin is a force multiplier.

In the end, if it gets too cheap, I won't be able to resist the urge to offer a put.  I know that.  I would prefer a scenario in which I never increase past my "moral" cum estimated "rational" limits, but a temporary surplus which ends up reducing my average cost is totally fine with me under all constructions.




Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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December 31, 2014, 03:42:32 PM
Last edit: December 31, 2014, 03:53:41 PM by jehst
 #2139

I urge you to abandon all "moral" holding limits.

You would like to convince me to add capital in case of a downturn, because you don't have any objection to me increasing risk (since it is not your risk, so it off-loads your risk).  That's cool.  But I'm not convinced that it is healthy for the coin.  The health of the coin is a force multiplier.


I have been aggressively increasing my stake recently. I'm taking the same risk you might. I'm not going to live this life without taking a risk.

If you're at your limit, fair enough.

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December 31, 2014, 04:08:45 PM
 #2140

I venture that almost everybody here is a ballsy risk-taker who presses their limits.  Most of us will suffer for it (but in very limited, almost ludicrous, sense of "suffering", on the broad human scale), and a few will bank big-time.  My prayer is that the good guys fall mainly in the latter camp.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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