[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Yea, I know it doesn't mean much having only one relatively small market (and a few other tinier markets like bittrex and hitbtc), but the buy/ask ratio is looking a bit shitty at the moment. 175 BTC / 500k XMR is about 0.0003 BTC/XMR

The reason to manipulate the ratio is to be able to buy low. The wall at 225k might be a legit offer to sell (albeit at a double price than today's market) but anything above that is irrelevant.

Similarly, a huge amount in bids may be a warning sign.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

True, but maybe this are peanuts for him. You have some big whales from btc among the owners of xmr.

The thought may also go as follows: "1) If Polo is safe, XMR are safe and it does not really matter. If Polo is hacked, XMR there is lost, but the coin either 2) suffers a lethal blow that the value of all other XMR is lost as well and it does not really matter (even the attacker cannot sell the coins stolen) or 3) the value is reduced so much that it's possible to by the same amount back from the market at an insignificant BTC cost and it does not really matter.

For a person operating in 6-7 figures, it's difficult to enter into a playing field so small where $100k makes you among the TOP-3 owners in the world, which is obviously crazy, and obviously available to one more person max, since when he starts to buy, the price starts to rise.

[jehst]

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Yea, I know it doesn't mean much having only one relatively small market (and a few other tinier markets like bittrex and hitbtc), but the buy/ask ratio is looking a bit shitty at the moment. 175 BTC / 500k XMR is about 0.0003 BTC/XMR

The reason to manipulate the ratio is to be able to buy low. The wall at 225k might be a legit offer to sell (albeit at a double price than today's market) but anything above that is irrelevant.

Similarly, a huge amount in bids may be a warning sign.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

True, but maybe this are peanuts for him. You have some big whales from btc among the owners of xmr.

The thought may also go as follows: "1) If Polo is safe, XMR are safe and it does not really matter. If Polo is hacked, XMR there is lost, but the coin either 2) suffers a lethal blow that the value of all other XMR is lost as well and it does not really matter (even the attacker cannot sell the coins stolen) or 3) the value is reduced so much that it's possible to by the same amount back from the market at an insignificant BTC cost and it does not really matter.

For a person operating in 6-7 figures, it's difficult to enter into a playing field so small where $100k makes you among the TOP-3 owners in the world, which is obviously crazy, and obviously available to one more person max, since when he starts to buy, the price starts to rise.

I think XMR can survive a Polo hack.

[ActualUpsurge]

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

+1

[Hueristic]

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Yea, I know it doesn't mean much having only one relatively small market (and a few other tinier markets like bittrex and hitbtc), but the buy/ask ratio is looking a bit shitty at the moment. 175 BTC / 500k XMR is about 0.0003 BTC/XMR

The reason to manipulate the ratio is to be able to buy low. The wall at 225k might be a legit offer to sell (albeit at a double price than today's market) but anything above that is irrelevant.

Similarly, a huge amount in bids may be a warning sign.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

True, but maybe this are peanuts for him. You have some big whales from btc among the owners of xmr.

The thought may also go as follows: "1) If Polo is safe, XMR are safe and it does not really matter. If Polo is hacked, XMR there is lost, but the coin either 2) suffers a lethal blow that the value of all other XMR is lost as well and it does not really matter (even the attacker cannot sell the coins stolen) or 3) the value is reduced so much that it's possible to by the same amount back from the market at an insignificant BTC cost and it does not really matter.

For a person operating in 6-7 figures, it's difficult to enter into a playing field so small where $100k makes you among the TOP-3 owners in the world, which is obviously crazy, and obviously available to one more person max, since when he starts to buy, the price starts to rise.

I think XMR can survive a Polo hack.

Polo has been hacked and that is why I trust them.

I keep these emails.

Dear Users of Poloniex,

As you may have heard, a hacker recently used an exploit to steal 12.3% of the Bitcoins on Poloniex. Details on how this happened can be found in this announcement post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=499580.0

In order to keep Poloniex solvent, all BTC balances were deducted yesterday by 12.3%. No further deductions will occur. As soon as I have time to put it up, you will be able to view exactly how much BTC you are missing on your Balances page.

I deeply regret that this happened, and am committed to repaying the debt and making Poloniex absolutely secure. Any exchange fees collected since the incident will be used to pay back the debt at regular intervals. Exchange fees will not be raised.

Additionally, shares of Poloniex may be issued, the profits from which would be used to repay the debt and hire highly qualified security experts. The timing and details of this, and indeed whether it will occur, have not been decided. I invite you all to give your input on these decisions by voting in the following poll and, if desired, leaving a comment: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=500578.0

Since the incident occurred, the way withdrawals and order creation are handled has been redesigned so that all such requests are added to a global command queue, then processed sequentially. More automated checks for consistency of balances have been added. Larger percentages of coins have been moved into cold storage. And as of today, I am searching for additional developers to bolster the security of Poloniex as much as possible, and as soon as possible.

Here are some specific details about the hacker.

BTC addresses used to withdraw stolen funds to:

1ABnAg2nK3M6YKmaYtL5EBgdp1VQGyTbjL
18sdMt7ENfU3Weq7vy1Qdqr3skgd47WEbe
1Ktq7TE3J5vZ3c99M5weqKfFcNkHQdqPrq
1C1acLbFh3KaKgdFUBuCV8oD7ucqUaLLLY


IP addresses used to place the withdrawals:

61.161.143.175
126.11.105.45
122.143.3.144
60.10.69.65


Email addresses used to log in:

373287211@qq.com
gasthalter@qq.com
group_124@qq.com
johnimmi_234@qq.com
liuxiaohong_819@qq.com
peabody_129@qq.com
stevencohen_998@qq.com
wangweida_123@qq.com

The total BTC stolen was about 97. The addresses will add up to more than that; this is because the hacker needed to deposit BTC several times in order to use the exploit.

Finally, I would like to extend my deepest gratitude toward the many people who have shown their support, who have vouched for my character, and who have offered help. In this time of extreme and continual stress and worry, I truly appreciate it. I will do everything in my power to return your funds to you as soon as possible, and I am grateful for your patience in the meantime.


Sincerely,
Tristan

Dear Users of Poloniex,

As you may have heard, an attempt to hack into Poloniex's hot wallet server via social engineering was made several weeks ago on May 3rd. The attack was successfully repelled and no funds were taken, but as a precaution, the old BTC hot wallet had to be considered compromised. This means that any BTC or XCP addresses generated on or before May 3rd should NOT be used for deposits.

This email is notify anyone still using such addresses that funds deposited there will soon no longer be recoverable. Future deposits to such addresses may be LOST. Please do NOT send any more BTC or XCP to any deposit address generated on or before May 3rd. Any BTC or XCP address currently appearing on your Balances page is valid.

Thanks,
Tristan D'Agosta
Poloniex, LLC

[thelibertycap]

p2p monero exchange

does anybody have some good understanding of the best technique how to accomplish this?
obligatory question - can it be implemented with monero?
of course. perhaps not anytime soon but i believe there are already projects for bitcoin that could be easily extended.
any idea about scaling and the number of transactions that have to occur if you are using technique where you bootstrap the exchange in several transactions?

i agree that using poloniex is for now more than enough though.

[jehst]

p2p monero exchange

does anybody have some good understanding of the best technique how to accomplish this?
obligatory question - can it be implemented with monero?
of course. perhaps not anytime soon but i believe there are already projects for bitcoin that could be easily extended.
any idea about scaling and the number of transactions that have to occur if you are using technique where you bootstrap the exchange in several transactions?

i agree that using poloniex is for now more than enough though.

I think the Ethereum team is working on a crypto-to-crypto decentralized exchange called EtherEx
http://www.etherex.org/

The idea is to use trustless smart contracts to do exchanges rather than have any counterparties. The contract executes the trade.
The only issue is that XMR is not a bitcoin clone so it may not be supported as soon as LTC/DOGE/etc. are supported.

[Barney]

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

Enjoyed yours BTC EV analysis thread, do you have something similar for XMR?

[rpietila]

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

Enjoyed yours BTC EV analysis thread, do you have something similar for XMR?

Yeah, in 5 years XMR is about 18 million coins. The scenarios are really a matrix of [crypto total marketcap x XMR's share of it]. If we make the most positive case a 1000 times higher marketcap ($4,000 billion, 5 times Apple's marketcap) and work from there making each order of magnitude a scenario of its own, we get approximately the following for general crypto:

1) $4000 billion 5%

2) $400 billion 15%

3) $40 billion 25%

4) $4 billion 30% <- this is the current size of crypto, at the bottom of the pit.

5) $400 million. 25%

This is a very rough but useful classification.



Then, again very simplistically, XMR can command a large or small share of the market. Let's say:

1) 3/4 of the market (domination) 1%

2) 10% of the market (second coin) 4%

3) 1% of the market (alive) 10%

4) 0.1% of the market (unsettled) 15% <- this is the current position of XMR

5) 0% of the market (dead) 70%



Now just go and do the numbers
...
I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome.

By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR.

Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly:

In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money.

Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV.

[rpietila]

I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome.

By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR.

Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly:

In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money.

Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV.

[jehst]

Yeah, in 5 years XMR is about 18 million coins. The scenarios are really a matrix of [crypto total marketcap x XMR's share of it]. If we make the most positive case a 1000 times higher marketcap ($4,000 billion, 5 times Apple's marketcap) and work from there making each order of magnitude a scenario of its own, we get approximately the following for general crypto:

1) $4000 billion 5%

2) $400 billion 15%

3) $40 billion 25%

4) $4 billion 30% <- this is the current size of crypto, at the bottom of the pit.

5) $400 million. 25%

This is a very rough but useful classification.



Then, again very simplistically, XMR can command a large or small share of the market. Let's say:

1) 3/4 of the market (domination) 1%

2) 10% of the market (second coin) 4%

3) 1% of the market (alive) 10%

4) 0.1% of the market (unsettled) 15% <- this is the current position of XMR

5) 0% of the market (dead) 70%



Now just go and do the numbers

This is good work.

EDIT: Just noticed that this is for 5 years.

[dEBRUYNE]

Yeah, in 5 years XMR is about 18 million coins. The scenarios are really a matrix of [crypto total marketcap x XMR's share of it]. If we make the most positive case a 1000 times higher marketcap ($4,000 billion, 5 times Apple's marketcap) and work from there making each order of magnitude a scenario of its own, we get approximately the following for general crypto:

1) $4000 billion 5%

2) $400 billion 15%

3) $40 billion 25%

4) $4 billion 30% <- this is the current size of crypto, at the bottom of the pit.

5) $400 million. 25%

This is a very rough but useful classification.



Then, again very simplistically, XMR can command a large or small share of the market. Let's say:

1) 3/4 of the market (domination) 1%

2) 10% of the market (second coin) 4%

3) 1% of the market (alive) 10%

4) 0.1% of the market (unsettled) 15% <- this is the current position of XMR

5) 0% of the market (dead) 70%



Now just go and do the numbers

This is good work.

EDIT: Just noticed that this is for 5 years.

Patience is a virtue.

[rpietila]

EDIT: Just noticed that this is for 5 years.

Patience is a virtue.

Seriously guys, flipping burgers is an option if 5 years is too much for a 50,000% EV 

[Wekkel]

The waiting is the hardest part.

[GingerAle]

The waiting is the hardest part.

especially in this world filled with people on uppers. (he says as he sips his morning coffee)

[coinits]

The waiting is the hardest part.

especially in this world filled with people on uppers. (he says as he sips his morning coffee)

Just keep buying.

[wpalczynski]

I would really like to learn how to perform these EV assessments/calculations, can anyone point me to a good writeup on it?

[jehst]

EDIT: Just noticed that this is for 5 years.

Patience is a virtue.

Seriously guys, flipping burgers is an option if 5 years is too much for a 50,000% EV  

Haha. My original comment was:"The element of timing is missing. All of these options may become true." Independently, I fixed a time of 2018-2019 in order for your probabilities to be reasonable.  Thus, it seems we are of the same mind.

Personally, I think that the most likely scenario is that XMR will definitely beat out DRK/DOGE/PPC within 5 years and become a TOP-5 cryptocurrency behind perhaps litecoin/ethereum/bitshares  with at least 3% of the overall 400 billion dollar crypto market cap, which would be $666.666/XMR, so I'm actually more optimistic than you. At that point, I become an Ultra-high net worth individual (if bitcoin hasn't already made me one) so we should definitely have a $100/XMR party.

[NemesisT]

Personally, I think that the most likely scenario is that XMR will definitely beat out DRK/DOGE/PPC within 5 years and become a TOP-5 cryptocurrency behind perhaps litecoin/ethereum/bitshares  with at least 3% of the overall 400 billion dollar crypto market cap, which would be $666.666/XMR, so I'm actually more optimistic than you. At that point, I become an Ultra-high net worth individual (if bitcoin hasn't already made me one) so we should definitely have a $100/XMR party.

I can now say I'm with you on this one, I've waited a considerable ammount of time after the Monero release before start buying, I watched the entire thing from the suppose exploit to the mega-dumps that are lot less frequent now. I was hoping for something "better" to be released after some months but I don't think this will be happening now, the only competitor (DRK) only has a higher marketcap because they changed the emission curve to screw over new adopters and their technology is not good, its very weak from a technical view point. From what I could gather the cryptonote project is still mysterious but was in the making for several years, and the community fork lead by the Monero core team is really shining next to everything else.

[rpietila]

I would really like to learn how to perform these EV assessments/calculations, can anyone point me to a good writeup on it?

That one is left to anyone. My method is just:

- select a timeframe
- think of what might happen
- group the "might happens" to actionable scenarios, typically 5 is a good number of scenarios even if the range of outcomes is very complex, just group them
- set the outcomes for the scenarios, guess the probabilities
- calculate the EV, and AEPR [(EV/PV)^(1/years)-1]

The Monero example is good because it shows that the EV does come at a cost:
- in 70% probability the outcome is zero = you lose all
- 5% is nearly zero
- 10% the purchasing power is kept
- 15% are the scenarios where you get 10x, 100x or 1000x return, which account for the bulk of the EV despite being rather improbable

So this appeals to people who want to become rich, and does not have appeal on people who don't. The EV is not all. A rational actor needs to think also what the utility of money is in the case he becomes a multimillionaire. On the other hand, excess profits can be easily cut by periodical selling if the positive scenarios start materializing. A good scheme for this is in my sig (SSS).

[Bassica]

It's pretty insane that it takes 400 btc to get to 0.003, which (looking at pricing of a lot of other alts) would be a reasonable price with the current fundamentals/promise for the future. It's interesting that the high emission is this sort of self fulfilling prophecy. I believe it is lower than it should be.

Looking at marketcap, we're 7th when non premine/mineable coins are filtered. Going to 0.3 wouldn't change that ranking currently (equal to namecoin).