[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smoothie]

Nice web wallet.

 

[jehst]

Prediction: the first privacy-based coin to be accepted on Agora/Evolution will dominate.

[SmoothCurves]

Loving the Web Wallet! Yes! Way to go Devs!

[dewdeded]

Prediction: there is a big chance, that the first privacy-based coin that is widly accepted at the (3-5) then leading (major) Dark Markets  will dominate.

Fixed your post.

[smooth]

Prediction: there is a big chance, that the first privacy-based coin that is widly accepted at the (3-5) then leading (major) Dark Markets  will dominate.

Fixed your post.

I think there is a good chance it will be a while before we see robust dark markets, so there will be a lot of churn and this won't necessarily have a large influence.

Of course this is speculative, but the history is of dark markets (especially leading ones) getting shut down and there is no reason to expect the near future to differ from the recent past.

[canth]

Prediction: there is a big chance, that the first privacy-based coin that is widly accepted at the (3-5) then leading (major) Dark Markets  will dominate.

Fixed your post.

I think there is a good chance it will be a while before we see robust dark markets, so there will be a lot of churn and this won't necessarily have a large influence.

Of course this is speculative, but the history is of dark markets (especially leading ones) getting shut down and there is no reason to expect the near future to differ from the recent past.

Hard to disagree with this. When you adversary has a tremendous budget, the cooperation of ISPs, hosting providers, the ability to infiltrate as customers and merchants and never sleeps, it's very hard to operate with total secrecy.To date, most of the busts seem to be centered around administrators with some lax operational security - it's hard to believe that this will change in the near future.

Indeed, it will take some time before truly robust solutions and operations are setup.

The web wallet is a great addition and was sorely lacking. Time to accumulate, I think.

[jehst]

To date, most of the busts seem to be centered around administrators with some lax operational security - it's hard to believe that this will change in the near future.

Lax is an understatement. These guys use their real e-mail addresses for purchases. They don't seem to hide and encrypt their laptop partitions. Unencrypted wallets. No multi-sig. They don't seem to care much about security at all. I suppose that people with normal risk tolerances and normal paranoia would simply refuse to operate those kind of websites in the first place, so there is a selection problem. The people with the necessary personality traits are filtered out at the start.

My point is that significant altcoin volume on a top dark net market would put that altcoin in second place only to bitcoin in terms of merchant adoption. This is not a difficult feat given weak LTC/DOGE merchant adoption. I believe that a sufficiently paranoid dark net market administrator would ideally want to make XMR and multi-sig escrow mandatory rather than optional, as it eliminates certain risks and attack vectors. However, the loss of customers would be too large for mandatory XMR and multi-sig to be a feasible business move in the near future.

Even modest market adoption would allow XMR to leapfrog several coins (Peercoin, Darkcoin, and Namecoin).

[pa]

Prediction: there is a big chance, that the first privacy-based coin that is widly accepted at the (3-5) then leading (major) Dark Markets  will dominate.

Fixed your post.

I think there is a good chance it will be a while before we see robust dark markets, so there will be a lot of churn and this won't necessarily have a large influence.

Of course this is speculative, but the history is of dark markets (especially leading ones) getting shut down and there is no reason to expect the near future to differ from the recent past.

OpenBazaar seems like it would go well with Monero, when they both mature.

[Wekkel]

The spike on the web wallet news seems to be over. Placed my lowest bids placed at 0.00143 now.

[dewdeded]

Lax is an understatement. These guys use their real e-mail addresses for purchases. They don't seem to hide and encrypt their laptop partitions. Unencrypted wallets. No multi-sig. They don't seem to care much about security at all. I suppose that people with normal risk tolerances and normal paranoia would simply refuse to operate those kind of websites in the first place, so there is a selection problem. The people with the necessary personality traits are filtered out at the start.

All major markets use Multi-Sig-Escrow today. Most require user PGP-key for communication.

Your infos are out of date. Get updates at http://www.deepdotweb.com/ or https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/

The scene made a major step towards security, they (all sane scene members) wont allow markets with at least Multi-Sig. They today prefer as much OpSec as possible.

[jehst]

Lax is an understatement. These guys use their real e-mail addresses for purchases. They don't seem to hide and encrypt their laptop partitions. Unencrypted wallets. No multi-sig. They don't seem to care much about security at all. I suppose that people with normal risk tolerances and normal paranoia would simply refuse to operate those kind of websites in the first place, so there is a selection problem. The people with the necessary personality traits are filtered out at the start.

All major markets use Multi-Sig-Escrow today. Most require user PGP-key for communication.

Your infos are out of date. Get updates at http://www.deepdotweb.com/ or https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/

The scene made a major step towards security, they (all sane scene members) wont allow markets with at least Multi-Sig. They today prefer as much OpSec as possible.

That paragraph is about the two guys who got caught running Silk Road and Silk Road 2.

It's good to hear things are improving. Maybe they'll do the smart thing and require Monero just as they require PGP.

[UnicornFarts]

what i don't get about that whole sega (and I have NO INTEREST in the black / dark market if the govt is spying!) is why the hell would you stay in the primary country you were serving (US?)

And why would you stay in a country that is probably the most aggressive about tracking down blackmarket criminals?

why not go somewhere where they don't have the money and don't care?

of all the stupid technical things you could do - seems like being stationed in the us is just inherantly horrible judgement

[nioc]

Base Reward   12.964700689442

[dewdeded]

jehst: Ok, now I understand.
If the public opinion at DeepDotWeb, /r/darknetmarkets and TheHub-forums changes towards Monero. Monero will be "required" and become kinda of an Dark Market-standard.

Unicorn: Some of the (older) admins/owners are still very, very stupid (SR2).

[e-coinomist]

Why are you all so fascinated by the black markets history, if that had clearly no impact on Bitcoin's trade value?
Admittingly it had a short rebound lasting almost 48 hours back then. Take special interest on the closing price of 122 $

And you know that during whole of Road 2.0 existance the development wasn't exactly upturning. If you place a ruler on that curve, was a steady decline (still ongoing).
My observation is that MtGox trade bots had a far bigger impact.

of all the stupid technical things you could do - seems like being stationed in the us is just inherantly horrible judgement

Customers are there. Safe bet 30+27% in total

According to information users provided upon registering, 30 percent were from the United States, 27 percent chose to be "undeclared," and beyond that, in descending order of prevalence: the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, Canada, Sweden, France, Russia, Italy, and the Netherlands.

[smooth]

Why are you all so fascinated by the black markets history, if that had clearly no impact on Bitcoin's trade value?
Admittingly it had a short rebound lasting almost 48 hours back then. Take special interest on the closing price of 122 $

I don't understand the point you are making here

And you know that during whole of Road 2.0 existance the development wasn't exactly upturning. If you place a ruler on that curve, was a steady decline (still ongoing).

It is impossible to know if the decline would have been even larger without SR2. There are clearly other significant factors at play.

My observation is that MtGox trade bots had a far bigger impact.

I'd say speculation from China (and its end, as China largely moved on to whatever fad it is they are speculating on now) was also a huge factor.

[dewdeded]

e-coinomist: Because the total revenue/transaction volume on the Dark Net overall (all DN businesses, not only drug trade) is huge. Many people estimate its gonna be $1.000.000.000 this year with an rising trend upward.

[e-coinomist]

I'd say speculation from China (and its end, as China largely moved on to whatever fad it is they are speculating on now) was also a huge factor.

Trade on BTER last day mostly consists out of NuBits, Bitcoin and Dogecoin. My daily read http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/ shows some surprising movements away from Altcoins back into ...errr... let us call them "classical cryptos".
Maybe it is time for Monero to get listed on more exchangers. I am NOT making a suggestion which one that could be. You decide.

What happens with the Shitcoin Exchange "Shitrex" Bittrex ?! As it seems even Kraken has taken pole position in front of their meager trade volume. So saaad for MalibuCoin, DayTraderCoin & FuelCoin  

edit: sighs we need something like Google Wave to discuss. This forum is ... ancient technology.

e-coinomist: Because the total revenue/transaction volume on the Dark Net overall (all DN businesses, not only drug trade) is huge. Many people estimate its gonna be $1.000.000.000 this year with an rising trend upward.

There are numbers, 9,519,664 Bitcoins in 1,229,465 transactions completed (source Wikipedia) which by that time wasn't a thousand dollars a coin. Biggest fallacy is to multiply that number by all time height.

Just seeing that is like $ 1,161,399,008 so your number has been ... a bit to conservative   I stand corrected

[smooth]

I'd say speculation from China (and its end, as China largely moved on to whatever fad it is they are speculating on now) was also a huge factor.

Trade on BTER last day mostly consists out of NuBits, Bitcoin and Dogecoin. My daily read http://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/ shows some surprising movements away from Altcoins back into ...errr... let us call them "classical cryptos".
Maybe it is time for Monero to get listed on more exchangers. I am NOT making a suggestion which one that could be. You decide.

My thought was non-crypto speculation, especially with the obstacles thrown up by PBOC. Yes they can be gotten around but many people won't bother and just move on to something else. I have no idea what is hot these days in China but I doubt it is any ____coin/___ero

XMR is on bter, BTW.

[e-coinomist]

XMR is on bter, BTW.

Now that is good news! On PBoC well they know how to surf the market waves that should be prohibited by law ... sadly, those guys are their own law.

Bitcoin seems to have been banned in China, then unbanned about 5 times this year already. Every time it gets banned the price crashes, then they say it's sort of not banned after all, and the price recovers.