[XMR] Monero Speculation

[illodin]

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

Daymn I want what you are smoking.  

[G2M]

If only everyone on the internet would tell me I could be a future millionaire from a $1.75 dollar investment today

All those causes at the grocery store would have to tell such sad stories to the kids who didn't get that dollar!

[TrueCryptonaire]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.

if this is the case now - I do not know

The time will tell.
I still have my Moneros locked in a safe. 

However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days.

That depends a lot on what you mean by high. Right now we are at about 5000 USD per day or 150K per month. Is there enough money flying around investing in cryptocurrencies to support that? Yes, and far more. Will that amount or more continue to flow into XMR? Very hard to say.

Bitcoin has emission of 3600 btc/day and it is in bearish trend (obviously the emission is too high to support rising trendline at given rate of adoption/disadoption.
On the other hand, Unobtanium has emission of 15 UNO/day and it has been in the bullish trend since summer 2014.
Monero has emission of 16000+ XMR/day and it has bearish trend since summer (lower highs - although the bearish trend was not that obvious back then due to higher lows which were broken, too).

When XMR's emission is less than 100 XMR/day I call it low emission coin and it has chances to reach pretty high price with the condition that there are people willing to buy the emission + bail the current owners and future sellers out.

[smooth]

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

Daymn I want what you are smoking.  

Get it here https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr

[Johnny Mnemonic]

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

Daymn I want what you are smoking.  

Get it here https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr

You can smoke it?! brb

[illodin]

Get it here https://poloniex.com/exchange#btc_xmr

Already have a few, can't wait to become a billionaire!

[oblox]

While the rise is positive, as always be careful buying at the top of a pump. The books are thin both sides. Speculate for the future but be careful trying to time it to perfection. There will be profit takers all the way up and many more holding bags from a much higher price.

*disclaimer, I sold my chunk I bought around 0.001 last week a few hours ago. I firmly beleive Ill have a chance to buy them back again lower than we are now. This of course doesnt include my long term holdings which are coming around to their 1 year anniversary soon

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.

if this is the case now - I do not know

The time will tell.
I still have my Moneros locked in a safe.  

However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days.

That depends a lot on what you mean by high. Right now we are at about 5000 USD per day or 150K per month. Is there enough money flying around investing in cryptocurrencies to support that? Yes, and far more. Will that amount or more continue to flow into XMR? Very hard to say.

Bitcoin has emission of 3600 btc/day and it is in bearish trend (obviously the emission is too high to support rising trendline at given rate of adoption/disadoption.
On the other hand, Unobtanium has emission of 15 UNO/day and it has been in the bullish trend since summer 2014.
Monero has emission of 16000+ XMR/day and it has bearish trend since summer (lower highs - although the bearish trend was not that obvious back then due to higher lows which were broken, too).

When XMR's emission is less than 100 XMR/day I call it low emission coin and it has chances to reach pretty high price with the condition that there are people willing to buy the emission + bail the current owners and future sellers out.

You're super cool hawking your UNO bags in another coin's thread.

[Hueristic]

...

You're super cool hawking your UNO bags in another coin's thread.

Now I remember why he's on ignore.

[rpietila]

The part of bitching was not serious. I attempted to point to the fact that in USD terms, the current price of Monero is only twice what it was when the coin started trading and some of the current devs had not even heard about it. So that it is probably a good time to buy now, as certainly most of the week-old projects have already died by this age, and since XMR has not, the risks and uncertainties are now lower.

500 XMR @ $2
500 XMR @ $20
500 XMR @ $200
500 XMR @ $2,000 (gain $1 million)
500 XMR @ $20,000 (gain $10 Mm)
500 XMR @ $200,000 except since at this point you are set for life plus have XMR that is worth 100 million in purchasing power, it's hardly necessary to sell it unless you need something.

Daymn I want what you are smoking.  

Here I am being totally serious. My 17-year successful online investing career suggests that this kind of opportunities are best tackled with a Venture Capital approach to wealth management (as described in enough detail in the post where the above quote is). In a prior post just 2 pages ago in the same thread, I presented a framework for the EV scenario analysis, including the probability calculation of how likely it is to reach each of the figures above, including that most likely none of them is ever reached. This leaves the possibility that some of them may be reached.

Also my intention was to make the reader realize, indeed, have an epiphany, that if crypto would ever become the dominant monetary system of the world (which is a commonly held belief among many respected cryptopeople, and has to be, since denying it would mean to hold the belief that crypto does not have any chance ever to become dominant), the market cap of the #1 coin has to rise to trillions of dollars at minimum, lest they could not act as the dominant money due to the lack of liquidity.

Unless you completely disregard the possibility of crypto changing the monetary paradigm, or the possibility for XMR to be the #1 crypto, the table above makes complete sense.
 
Note: I am not saying it is likely that you will need to sell your XMR at $200,000, ever. It does not need to be likely to be a +EV. Even if the chance for that happening were 1 in 100,000 (which is a low chance, the probability that a young person dies by accident is much higher per month), it still makes it worthwhile to buy, if Expected Value is what you are after.

A lecture in math & logic is always worth giving. How I wish I would have had access to this information when I was young  


Edited: only 17 years of my investing career is online.

[UnicornFarts]

Unless you completely disregard the possibility of crypto changing the monetary paradigm, or the possibility for XMR to be the #1 crypto, the table above makes complete sense.

Crypto will change the world.  But the ponzi scheme release curve will be antiquidated when people realize the network is worth what the security is worth.  And the fraction paid towards security is constantly going down in an effort to drive early adopters value thru the roof.

I own moneros and I like it much better than bitcoin (I also like Ethereum).  But there is an inbetween that thinks there IS a place for crypto - but the current output paradime is too greedy to encourage mass adoption.

Half of my Monero's are for sale at $3.  Another half at $30.  The rest at $300.

[rpietila]

Introspection: I am starting to sound very much like what I felt towards Bitcoin in March, 2013, as it crossed its all-time-high of $32 and relentlessly took new ground.

What foolishness to think that BTC could reach $2,000! The assurance of this possibility led me to buy them and now I have this castle  

[rpietila]

Half of my Monero's are for sale at $3.  Another half at $30.  The rest at $300.

If you change that to always sell half (upon successive 10x), you won't feel bad with your 40-ft yacht when the others have private spacecraft...

[UnicornFarts]

I get that.  I really do.

The problem is

A - Economics.  Is the world really going to adopt somethign that is going to make the rest of us rich for doing ... pretty much nothing?  With something that can be easily cloned to a different codebase (not something you can do with gold or silver), has no tangible uses (Gold and silver does), produces nothing (stocks own farms that create food or rent houses or make technology.

B - Technology.  By definition economic adoption needs stability (fiat dollar, gold, shekels, whatever) in order to be productive.  Technology in order to improve by definition needs to be disruptive.  Ethereum will be able to do everything bitcoin can do transaction wise with a fraction of the space and bandwidth (because they plan on doing so much other stuff they HAD to optimize).  When polotics gets in the way of technology - another coin will move in to wipe an old one out.

Monero will wipe darkcoin out.  Ethereum will wipe litecoin out.  Etc

This inhibits adoption

Bitcoin had the advantage of having first mover / only mover.  The entire landscape has changed.  I have heard you say you have the same type of feeling (several months ago).  I've seen you think that bitcoin was going to 100,000 per.

I'm not trying to be rude - only state that no one knows.  

I do love all the progress that's been made on XMR.  It really is one of the few interesting nonscam projects out there.

[rpietila]

I'm not trying to be rude - only state that no one knows.  

Hey man, we agree.

The difference between difficult and impossible is that I can jump 1.5 m high with difficulty, but 2 m is impossible.

XMR can go to $1 (BTC0.0045) with difficulty, but even $100,000 is not impossible.


Difficult things happen sometimes, impossible ones don't.

[wpalczynski]

Hypothetical Question:

Not taking into consideration current adoption or first mover advantage but comparing two crypto currencies hypothetically conceived at the same time with the same particulars (emission, etc.) one with a public ledger such as bitcoin and one with a private untraceable one which one would be valued higher and why?

[pippo]

I'm not trying to be rude - only state that no one knows.  

Hey man, we agree.

The difference between difficult and impossible is that I can jump 1.5 m high with difficulty, but 2 m is impossible.

XMR can go to $1 (BTC0.0045) with difficulty, but even $100,000 is not impossible.


Difficult things happen sometimes, impossible ones don't.

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

[smooth]

With something that can be easily cloned to a different codebase (not something you can do with gold or silver), has no tangible uses (Gold and silver does)

1. Code can't really be cloned (see below)

2. There is a tangible (sort of) use

As a thought experiment, imagine there was a base metal as scarce as gold but with the following properties:
– boring grey in colour
– not a good conductor of electricity
– not particularly strong, but not ductile or easily malleable either
– not useful for any practical or ornamental purpose
and one special, magical property:
– can be transported over a communications channel
If it somehow acquired any value at all for whatever reason, then anyone wanting to transfer wealth over a long distance could buy some, transmit it, and have the recipient sell it.
Maybe it could get an initial value circularly as you’ve suggested, by people foreseeing its potential usefulness for exchange. (I would definitely want some) Maybe collectors, any random reason could spark it

B - Technology.  By definition economic adoption needs stability (fiat dollar, gold, shekels, whatever) in order to be productive.  Technology in order to improve by definition needs to be disruptive.  Ethereum will be able to do everything bitcoin can do transaction wise with a fraction of the space and bandwidth (because they plan on doing so much other stuff they HAD to optimize).  When polotics gets in the way of technology - another coin will move in to wipe an old one out.

I agree with you that better technology can sometimes replace worse technology, though not always. I disagree that merely cloned code can do much of anything, otherwise LTC would be more than a pimple on BTC's ass.

As for obsolescence, that will have to play out in the market. Eventually a technology matures to the point where it is good enough and dominates a market not because it is the best possible solution but because anything better is not better enough.

[rpietila]

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Hypothetical Question:

Not taking into consideration current adoption or first mover advantage but comparing two crypto currencies hypothetically conceived at the same time with the same particulars (emission, etc.) one with a public ledger such as bitcoin and one with a private untraceable one which one would be valued higher and why?

What people think is important changes constantly. Decentralized and trustless systems are interesting right now because people are starting to get weary of being subject to the whims of banks and government bailouts. However, future events may increase demand for centralized banking and trust-based systems in general.

Privacy is no different. It's a hot topic right now, but who knows what we will find important down the line.

The main takeaway here is that even if these technologies fall out of popularity, we will always have them in our back pocket should the need arise.

[wpalczynski]

Interesting POV, certainly possible given the speed at which the world is changing.

Hypothetical Question:

Not taking into consideration current adoption or first mover advantage but comparing two crypto currencies hypothetically conceived at the same time with the same particulars (emission, etc.) one with a public ledger such as bitcoin and one with a private untraceable one which one would be valued higher and why?

What people think is important changes constantly. Decentralized and trustless systems are interesting right now because people are starting to get weary of being subject to the whims of banks and government bailouts. However, future events may increase demand for centralized banking and trust-based systems in general.

Privacy is no different. It's a hot topic right now, but who knows what we will find important down the line.

The main takeaway here is that even if these technologies fall out of popularity, we will always have them in our back pocket should the need arise.