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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3309504 times)
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December 12, 2014, 04:46:35 PM
 #1721

Monero guys, please add Monero as an answer to "Which recent developments do you think will have the biggest impact on the BTC landscape in 2015"

http://www.coindesk.com/state-bitcoin-2015-survey/

Honest question: do you actually believe monero will have the biggest impact on the BTC landscape in 2015 or do you just want to vote for it? There's nothing recent about ring signatures as a technology, which has already been around for a while. As far as XMR itself being influential goes, I believe that most of 2015 will be the distribution/development phase for XMR (database, GUI, SPV  client,  mobile wallet, high emission rate, etc.) Quite frankly, I'm looking at 2016 as possibly being XMR's breakout year which is why I'll continue to accumulate while it's under .002 BTC/XMR


Exactly.
Monero most likely will not skyrocket at 2015. Perhaps late 2015 it has some chance to do it but the upcoming months are time for development and absorbing the emission as you said. I share your view on this.
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December 12, 2014, 05:24:06 PM
 #1722

I suggest we skyrocket several times so everybody's happy?

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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December 12, 2014, 07:25:59 PM
 #1723

My expectation is that when BTC sees a hype ramp, XMR will follow.  XMR will gain less cap and more % than BTC, both bottom to peak and bottom to post-cycle plateau.  Rinse, repeat.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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December 12, 2014, 08:25:02 PM
 #1724

My expectation is that when BTC sees a hype ramp, XMR will follow.  XMR will gain less cap and more % than BTC, both bottom to peak and bottom to post-cycle plateau.  Rinse, repeat.

The leveraged play on XBT during a XBT/USD boom. There is a lot of evidence supporting this from past XBT/USD booms with LTC, NMC etc.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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December 12, 2014, 09:23:03 PM
Last edit: December 13, 2014, 12:45:54 AM by smooth
 #1725

Monero guys, please add Monero as an answer to "Which recent developments do you think will have the biggest impact on the BTC landscape in 2015"

http://www.coindesk.com/state-bitcoin-2015-survey/

Honest question: do you actually believe monero will have the biggest impact on the BTC landscape in 2015 or do you just want to vote for it? There's nothing recent about ring signatures as a technology, which has already been around for a while.

The use in a coin is recent. There is nothing else out there that has anonymity rooted in any sort of math or cryptography. The closest would by zerocash, which doesn't exist yet, and who knows if it will exist or become mature enough to matter (even as mature as Monero) in 2015.

So I think there is a case to be made for Monero here, although objectively I'm not sure it will have "the biggest impact". In fact the biggest impact may be negative, and I can think of some high profile efforts that might turn out to be colossal failures in 2015.
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December 13, 2014, 12:44:34 AM
 #1726


So I think there is a case to be made for Monero here, although objectively I'm not sure it will have "the biggest impact". In fact the biggest impact may be negative, and I can think of some high profile efforts that might turn out to be colossal failures in 2015.


I think the technology has already had the theoretical, psychological impact on the space in 2014. In order for Monero to really have an impact in the "cryptocurrency landscape" in 2015, one of the following would have to happen:

a) Its technology is implemented in bitcoin (not going to happen)
b) Its technology is implemented in a sidechain (more likely, but sidechains probably won't exist in 2015. too early for that)
c) It becomes the dominant currency in certain niche markets (too early for that)

2015 will be competitive in terms of impact. EtherEx on Ethereum could rapidly make Cryptsy and other crypto-crypto exchanges obsolete. Overstock's Medici on Counterparty would be pretty big. And as you said, some sort of colossal failure might easily end up being the most impactful thing. It's truly hard to imagine XMR being the #1 crypto story of 2015.

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December 13, 2014, 12:50:10 AM
 #1727

EtherEx on Ethereum could rapidly make Cryptsy and other crypto-crypto exchanges obsolete.

Could being the big word here. It will not allow real time trading. They say this is an advantage since it won't have HFT. I sympathize with that point of view somewhat, but so far almost every market (both crypto and non-crypto) has preferred real time exchanges.

Quote
Overstock's Medici on Counterparty would be pretty big.

Do they have a target date for actually trading? I'm not sure it is realistic to see this fly in 2015, given the regulatory speed limit. Maybe, but look how the Bitcoin ETFs have gotten bogged down.

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December 13, 2014, 01:16:22 AM
 #1728

EtherEx on Ethereum could rapidly make Cryptsy and other crypto-crypto exchanges obsolete.

Could being the big word here. It will not allow real time trading. They say this is an advantage since it won't have HFT. I sympathize with that point of view somewhat, but so far almost every market (both crypto and non-crypto) has preferred real time exchanges.

Quote
Overstock's Medici on Counterparty would be pretty big.

Do they have a target date for actually trading? I'm not sure it is realistic to see this fly in 2015, given the regulatory speed limit. Maybe, but look how the Bitcoin ETFs have gotten bogged down.



Ethereum will have a 60 second block time so any contracts traded using it will be pretty quick. After people get gox'd and web services get hacked another dozen times, they may start to see that waiting 60 seconds to make a trustless trade is a tradeoff worth making. In any case, there will be some significant movement of users and volume from centralized crypto-crypto exchanges to decentralized ones. I sure as hell won't be keeping money on centralized crypto-crypto exchanges when I have another choice. That would be a big impact on the space.

On second thought, you're right about Medici. It's probably way too early. Medici could easily be one of those things, like Zerocoin, that seem to just never come into existence.

Perhaps the ETF itself will have the biggest impact 2015 if it even launches.

In my opinion. 2015 is mostly going to be a year of development. It's going to be 2015 in a few weeks. 2015 is already here. Most things are still works in progress.

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December 13, 2014, 01:24:06 AM
 #1729

Ethereum will have a 60 second block time so any contracts traded using it will be pretty quick.

60 seconds is not "pretty quick" for real time trading. For something more like shapeshift, it is certainly fine.

As you say, the advantages of being trustless may outweigh the very slow trading, and lack of HFT might turn out to be an advantage, but I see this as being very questionable to assume.

Quote
It's going to be 2015 in a few weeks. 2015 is already here.

Exactly!

Anything that isn't here already might well not be here (or not scale up enough to have much impact) by 2015. So that gives Monero a shot to be relatively high impact.
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December 13, 2014, 01:39:15 AM
 #1730

Quote
So that gives Monero a shot to be relatively high impact.

Hope so.

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December 13, 2014, 02:38:22 AM
 #1731

Quote
As you say, the advantages of being trustless may outweigh the very slow trading

If you'll think back to not too long ago ... decentralized exchanges will help bad actors profit from smaller coins (split chain / dump).  Not to mention I'm not sure they will be able to lock them down by 2FA (won't they have to use the private / public key only?)

I'm not so sure that there aren't close to as many cons as pros
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December 13, 2014, 02:41:04 AM
 #1732

I did a lot of speculation, but monero is my first loss.. I should've have know looking at the wallet.

Fore sure I keep it (just 1 BTC), but expected this one to overgrow DOGE...
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December 13, 2014, 04:25:26 AM
 #1733

I did a lot of speculation, but monero is my first loss.. I should've have know looking at the wallet.

Fore sure I keep it (just 1 BTC), but expected this one to overgrow DOGE...

What other coins do you trade with?
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December 13, 2014, 05:06:05 AM
 #1734

It's pretty impressive that Monero is almost down to the same price as Bytecoin.  I'd say it was a bullish indicator but looking at the pattern on the order book I think people are going to keep dumping.

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December 13, 2014, 06:17:03 AM
 #1735

It's pretty impressive that Monero is almost down to the same price as Bytecoin.  I'd say it was a bullish indicator but looking at the pattern on the order book I think people are going to keep dumping.



Bytecoin's marketcap actually did go higher than Monero's for a time last night (Asia time). Pretty brutal.

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December 13, 2014, 11:16:57 AM
 #1736

It's pretty impressive that Monero is almost down to the same price as Bytecoin.  I'd say it was a bullish indicator but looking at the pattern on the order book I think people are going to keep dumping.



What am I missing? Last time I checked (5 minutes ago) the price of Bytecoin was 2 satoshi. https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_bcn


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December 13, 2014, 11:59:24 AM
 #1737

It's pretty impressive that Monero is almost down to the same price as Bytecoin.  I'd say it was a bullish indicator but looking at the pattern on the order book I think people are going to keep dumping.



What am I missing? Last time I checked (5 minutes ago) the price of Bytecoin was 2 satoshi. https://poloniex.com/exchange/btc_bcn



He meant market cap of course

There are 166,526,647,893 bytecoins worth 3 satoshi each.
There are 5,058,851 moneroj worth 109155 satoshi each.


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December 13, 2014, 01:17:30 PM
 #1738

It's pretty impressive that Monero is almost down to the same price as Bytecoin.  I'd say it was a bullish indicator but looking at the pattern on the order book I think people are going to keep dumping.



Hi, dude, how do you know keep dumping from order book? What kind of order book indicates pumping? I am not a professional trader.
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December 13, 2014, 03:28:33 PM
 #1739

BCN price is easier to keep propped up, because it is doubtful that more than 5% of the supply has ever been in the hands of the public (others than the BCN team).

XMR is more subject to market forces, since the number of people holding more than 1% of the XMR is rather large, and any one of them may decide to call it quits and dump. Similarly the existing, or new, people can buy. Trying to either suppress or pump the price in this environment are losing propositions.

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December 13, 2014, 05:24:15 PM
 #1740

BCN price is easier to keep propped up, because it is doubtful that more than 5% of the supply has ever been in the hands of the public (others than the BCN team).

XMR is more subject to market forces, since the number of people holding more than 1% of the XMR is rather large, and any one of them may decide to call it quits and dump. Similarly the existing, or new, people can buy. Trying to either suppress or pump the price in this environment are losing propositions.

Smartest thing I've heard you say in a month. Welcome back. Wink

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