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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312332 times)
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thelibertycap
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January 12, 2015, 12:54:22 PM
 #2221

real usage and not just speculation:

hacked wallets -> anonymous cryptocurrencies

we need p2p exchange markets with enough volume to enable such transactions.
There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
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January 12, 2015, 09:40:03 PM
 #2222

...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.

Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.

Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.

For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.

You mean it works kinds like fiat?

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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January 12, 2015, 09:42:03 PM
 #2223

...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.

Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.

Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.

For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.

You mean it works kinds like fiat?

Most trade of those things are in fiat, especially USD.
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January 13, 2015, 03:11:18 AM
 #2224

If bitcoin's price goes down to, say, 100 and XMR goes down to .001 and the emission is around 17000 to 18000 per day, that's $1700 to $1800 to buy every coin mined. A .001 floor becomes pretty trivial to maintain.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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January 13, 2015, 06:28:19 PM
 #2225

If bitcoin's price goes down to, say, 100 and XMR goes down to .001 and the emission is around 17000 to 18000 per day, that's $1700 to $1800 to buy every coin mined. A .001 floor becomes pretty trivial to maintain.

It depends on if XMR is useful to us or not. There are too many junk coins out there. I hope XMR prosper.
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January 13, 2015, 11:48:14 PM
 #2226

...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.

Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.

Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.

For instance: Dell, Overstock et al won't be accepting XMR as a payment method. At best it will be used to purchase illegal stuff.

Actually I prefer to asses the regulatory risk of a crypto currency based on the actual rulings and statements provided by relevant government agencies rather than based on third party comments that are more often than not misleading if not outright wrong. It is fair to say that the US Government has been a leader in this area and relevant rulings from FinCEN can be found here. http://fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/html/FIN-2013-G001.html and http://www.fincen.gov/news_room/rp/rulings/pdf/FIN-2014-R001.pdf. I would urge the reader to carefully read the guidance before reaching conclusions.  
Quote
Definitions of User, Exchanger, and Administrator

            This guidance refers to the participants in generic virtual currency arrangements, using the terms "user," "exchanger," and "administrator."6 A user is a person that obtains virtual currency to purchase goods or services.7 An exchanger is a person engaged as a business in the exchange of virtual currency for real currency, funds, or other virtual currency. An administrator is a person engaged as a business in issuing (putting into circulation) a virtual currency, and who has the authority to redeem (to withdraw from circulation) such virtual currency.
This is from FIN-2013-G001. The key point is that Bitcoin miners are deemed "users" this was further clarified in FIN-2014-R001. So of course would be someone running a Bitcoin node since they are not engaging in a "business". I fail to find anything in this guidance that is specific to Bitcoin that would not also apply to Monero. Now compare this to the situation of the Darkcoin Masternodes. Are they MSBs and subject to FinCEN regulations? I suspect that a very good case could be made since 1) They are operating as a business and compensated for their efforts and  2) Their primary function is to exchange unmixed Darkcoins for mixed Darkcoins. This could make them an exchanger under the regulations. There is an interesting discussion in the Darkcoin thread on this https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.45000. The implications of a FinCEN ruling on the Darkcoin masternodes as MSBs could have a significant impact not only on the Darkcoin price but also on the Monero price. All it takes is for someone to approach FinCEN and request a ruling.

The key here is that while both Monero and Darkcoin may be aiming to achieve a similar objective, how this objective is achieved can have profound and very different legal and regulatory implications.

Edit: Assessing this kind of risk is a significant reason why I have chosen Monero over Darkcoin. I may of course be proven wrong, but that is what the free market is all about.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 14, 2015, 01:57:46 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2015, 02:49:57 AM by darkota
 #2227

My take on this is, Monero has the option to be traceable and untraceable. What makes it stand apart from Bitcoin, is that it's untracaeablility is very convenient and easy to understand/do, unlike Bitcoin where you have to use electrum to make new wallets everytime, use mixers to switch your coins around, and by the time you're done obfuscating your trace with Bitcoin, days have past, far different Monero where you can simply send coins anonymously with a few clicks.


After all, Bitcoin has marketed itself as something open and transparent, since it was widely thought of as illegal and for drugs only for quite some time. While, Monero will(Monero hasn't been marketed yet) probably be marketed as the "complete package", having both easy to use anonymity and easy to use transparency if needed.

To win the Average Joe, is to have the easiest product to use.
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January 14, 2015, 02:44:03 AM
 #2228

Then there is the little detail of the 1MB blocksize limit in Bitcoin. 

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 14, 2015, 05:52:04 AM
 #2229

Anyone who believes that Monero wouldn't be treated much harsher than Bitcoin by governments is delusional.

The government hates competition. When the people are not behaving according to the gov wants, in the end the just have to kill everybody, and then themselves, and then the bankers rule the world.

No sarcasm, this is the plan. But we are not there yet. In the current environment, there is no repercussion strong enough available for governments that would put the information (blockchain) back to the Pandora's box. Because it cannot be done.

We have been taught to love governments. But consider by whom - people who think they are dependent of governments (your parents), institutions dependent by governments (kindergarten, school, everything else you attended prior to reaching drinking age and even then), media, dependent of government. There can be good or bad governments, the one we currently have is quite simple, because nearly all governments in the world are plants, tools, of and for people in the position of world domination already.

"But he said to them, 'The kings of the Gentiles lord it over them, and those who exercise authority over them are called benefactors.'"

I wrote to Jorge about bitcoin - 100,000 people treasure it so much as to actually need and use it to escape (this) tyranny. Another few million try to make a quick buck, and 7+ billion continue "baa, baaaa".

Actually I prefer to asses the regulatory risk of a crypto currency based on the actual rulings and statements provided by relevant government agencies rather than based on third party comments that are more often than not misleading if not outright wrong.

The suppression agency arm of the Bankster world domination scheme (combined name of all the world governments Wink ) is already spending 2-4 orders of magnitude more resources in suppressing XMR than the XMR developers are using for developing it. The battlefield is human mind, media, perception - if they can paint it bad (illicit drugs - of which many are useful to very useful for most people in general and treating sicknesses (cannabis), some are for party use, or for working harder and can be used to tailor your short-term state (amphetamine), some are deadly dangerous, not for the users but for the governments because they make people understand things even at the first dose (LSD), also good for treating mental disorders of many kind), then they sort of win, because people start parroting how it is bad.

But that's not necessarily the case. They may also lose: using a mobile phone while driving was tried to be outlawed, people just ignored it. Why? Their perception of the harmfulness of the thing being outlawed did not reach the critical level, also the group could not be marginalized because it was the majority already.

For the same reason, cannabis will be legalized in a swoop in the next 10 years almost everywhere. It makes people feel less anxious about their situation, which is good because the banksters can rob them faster, but the main reason is, because keeping it illegal erodes the remaining confidence in the government and its systems.

Every person who truly ignores government and all it does, is deadly dangerous to them (typically not at all to himself, nor the others, despite the government's claims to the contrary  Cheesy ), and the network of prisons and mental institutions worldwide is awaiting to store them.

But it's not isolated cases anymore. Some say the age of martyrs is just starting, but it also may be ending. You don't really know. AFAIK, high level bitcoiners have mainly been threatened by government, and their freedom of communication has only been cut by threats, not by steel. How the world reacts to bitcoin advocates being put behind bars in solitary confinement (Martin Armstrong, "terrorists"), or to death, remains to be seen.

In the short term, you can choose to care about the legal situation, if you are good in that game.

I am not, because I honestly don't care about them. I cannot make myself think that they are important to me, and this background is very poor for analysing their moves. Board games are better because I know and care about my opponents, they are my friends.

My general idea is that in this society, there cannot be "war against crypto". It is just too vague an enemy, and many gov people are in it themselves.

It is maybe the same as other bogus enemies, like drugs, (child) porn, tax evasion, using a mobile when you drive, ...

Their only reason of existence in the legal code is to:
1) keep people anxious and depressed due to the sheer number of regulations that they must adhere to, and the incomprehensibility of them
2) provide skeletons in the closet for all people, so that if they reach a position of power, yet start to think and act independently, they can be replaced by using this "new" "scandal" information that just surfaced from NSA servers.

I'm just a humble guy who was living a very modest and financially small life in 2008, and suddenly the banks attacked me using the Finnish government as a tool, by raiding my home without my invitation. Fucking idiots! Without that, I would still know not 5% of what I do now. Every drug, child porn, tax evasion, terrorism, mobile phone, etc. related charge against me from now on is their (crafty or feeble, only the history knows) attempt to make my releasing of this kind of info difficult.

From my own experience I know that it is possible to make a lifelong enemy of a man by using force against him when he does not feel it is fair. This is the reason I believe the banks cannot win this one. It's like a card in card game that when attacked, gains +2X (where X is the damage inflicted by the attack), and when killed, resurrects 10 cards of equal value.

So my exhortation is to respectfully ignore each and everyone, who infringes your use of crypto. Or your life, for that matter.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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January 14, 2015, 06:00:01 AM
 #2230

Every person who truly ignores government and all it does, is deadly dangerous to them (typically not at all to himself, nor the others, despite the government's claims to the contrary  Cheesy ), and the network of prisons and mental institutions worldwide is awaiting to store them.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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January 14, 2015, 07:10:45 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2015, 07:33:22 AM by ArticMine
 #2231

I read Sun Tzu The Art of War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_War and the concept of ignoring my enemies simply does not appeal to me as a strategy. Here is a quote:
Quote
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/3200649---s-nz-b-ngf It is as relevant today as when it was written several millennia ago.

Edit: The fact that DRK left its flank wide open to a potentially crippling attack by the US Government while XMR did not is something I cannot ignore.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 14, 2015, 08:32:53 AM
 #2232

True. You can only ignore government, after living through the tribulations it is capable on delivering to you, and realising in the end:

"I will not talk with you much longer, for the ruler of this world is coming. He has no power over me. [Lit. has nothing in me]" (John 14:30)


HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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January 14, 2015, 08:38:57 AM
 #2233

As long as you fear Satan, you are bound to him. When Jesus sets you free, you are truly free.

(NSA has all the information of this world, and U.S. Navy holds sway over most of the planet, and the national armies and other forces over the rest. Whether you can use XMR in secret or not, is irrelevant as long as you fear that "stepping over the line" makes them find child porn in your computer and you go to jail, and 7 billion people applause. So yes, XMR is important, but only in the context that people let themselves be set free. Waging this war in the minefield of the enemy is not a winning strategy.)

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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January 14, 2015, 01:32:46 PM
 #2234

...
The biggest reason why Monero cannot and will not be the #1 crypto is because it is developed to be 100% anonymous and untraceable. Lawmakers and regulators will not allow something like that to have widespread mainstream use.

Lawmakers and regulators will just legislate and regulate the on and off ramps and the service providers as they are currently doing with Bitcoin, and have done with cash for years.

Agree, another way is that they could opt to use the viewkey so the transaction is visible. In the same way as the current dev donation adress. If I am wrong about this, please correct me.

I looked this up and would like to add some content:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=721045.msg9781917#msg9781917

Q: How can Monero be both anonymous and transparent at the same time?
A: Monero is "private, optionally transparent". By default, you can get very little information from Monero (you can know that a transaction occured, but not whence, how much and whither).
But you can decide to give one particular person access to your balance by providing this person a viewkey, a specific string. For the moment, support is limited to MyMonero.com-created addresses, since this wallet is the only one able to take advantage of viewkeys and MyMonero doesn't yet allow reading a non-MyMonero.com-created address (such as an address created with simplewallet). But later, support will be extended to any wallet and addresses.
Another optional transparency feature, hinted at in the original whitepaper but not implemented yet, is auditable addresses.
Finally, we have also considered other methods of allowing for transparency on specific transactions. People want to be able to selectively prove payments on demand and generally open up to transparency in a controlled manner, without everything being linkable and traceable to the rest of their transactions.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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January 14, 2015, 02:52:50 PM
 #2235

with all the (cloud) mining companies getting into trouble in the bitcoin space right now, is it possible that they will turn their eyes towars xmr, since the required hardware is cheaper to obtain/produce/run?

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January 14, 2015, 03:42:08 PM
 #2236

if any type of transition is to occur, I don't think it will be swift. I have no idea how these companies will liquidate sha 256 hardware in order to procure GPU / CPU farms... plus, I don't think XMR is even economically feasible to mine right now.. electricity costs >> xmr value. And hasn't probably been economically viable for a while.

< Track your bitcoins! > < Track them again! > <<< [url=https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qomqt/what_a_landmark_legal_case_from_mid1700s_scotland/] What is fungibility? >>> 46P88uZ4edEgsk7iKQUGu2FUDYcdHm2HtLFiGLp1inG4e4f9PTb4mbHWYWFZGYUeQidJ8hFym2WUmWc p34X8HHmFS2LXJkf <<< Free subdomains at moneroworld.com!! >>> <<< If you don't want to run your own node, point your wallet to node.moneroworld.com, and get connected to a random node! @@@@ FUCK ALL THE PROFITEERS! PROOF OF WORK OR ITS A SCAM !!! @@@@
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January 14, 2015, 03:45:27 PM
 #2237

You mine what's profitable ... not mine to make it profitable.

any idea on how much hardware you can afford with current xmr price / liquidity by selling all mined coins in a day?

*hint.  not a hell of a lot

Looks like I was right about bitcoin fiat price being more of a liability than the btc/xmr ratio.
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January 14, 2015, 08:07:16 PM
 #2238

Monero is not profitable to mine with GPU if the electricity price is > $0.03 kWh.
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January 14, 2015, 08:18:38 PM
 #2239

Monero is not profitable to mine with GPU if the electricity price is > $0.03 kWh.

Unless of course it is -30 C outside and furnace cannot keep up.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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January 14, 2015, 08:44:06 PM
 #2240

I read Sun Tzu The Art of War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_War and the concept of ignoring my enemies simply does not appeal to me as a strategy. Here is a quote:
Quote
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/3200649---s-nz-b-ngf It is as relevant today as when it was written several millennia ago.

Edit: The fact that DRK left its flank wide open to a potentially crippling attack by the US Government while XMR did not is something I cannot ignore.

He who waits at the rivers edge long enough will see the bodies of all his enemies float bye.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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