[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nakaone]

After I got involved in bitcoin, end of 2012, I've been spending significant time and efforts to vulgarize bitcoin (and cryptos at large) publicly. Most of the time with just enthousiasts, but also with media (including radio & tv & newspapers) and more recently with the (mostly financial) industry.

Being truly passionate, when I say "vulgarize" it implies in fact a kind of honest evangelism. I don't want to only inform those that are curious, I am humbly doing what I can for this idea to spread.

I can tell by experience this task would be way more difficult, some time painful to do, putting myself in potentially high discomfort during interviews, if bitcoin had gone trough what some of you want to do with monero emission schedule.

I completely agree.

regarding cutting emission - you guys realize that the failure of declining prices is not done by the emission but by the probably to high expectations of the buyers at certain points of time in the past. we simply did wrong in pricing monero properly.

if we cut now - how do we know that we cut properly?

I am probably one of the least evangelizing persons of free markets in this forum - but here please let the market do the price finding, not some greedy investors who try to correct their personal failures

[TrueCryptonaire]

There is no compromise. (I'm a man of no-fight usually, I'd like to go with you, but that doesn't work here).
Either you touch the code of the emission, or you don't. There is no in-between.

I would return the short term argument "Monero's life is threaten, we must survive short term, that is more important than long term considerations", as follows:
If you have been on the cryptos scene for a while, you know the premine accusation is a death sentence (on the "serious" alt scene at least). Short term, our only target to expand the community is the existing crypto currencies community, alienate them and we're dead, immediately.


EDIT: Not talking about the tail emission here. As smooth clarified recently, that part was always left open and talking about it, or changing it, wouldn't be a breach of anything.

Monero is currently more or less premine coin.

[TrueCryptonaire]

After I got involved in bitcoin, end of 2012, I've been spending significant time and efforts to vulgarize bitcoin (and cryptos at large) publicly. Most of the time with just enthousiasts, but also with media (including radio & tv & newspapers) and more recently with the (mostly financial) industry.

Being truly passionate, when I say "vulgarize" it implies in fact a kind of honest evangelism. I don't want to only inform those that are curious, I am humbly doing what I can for this idea to spread.

I can tell by experience this task would be way more difficult, some time painful to do, putting myself in potentially high discomfort during interviews, if bitcoin had gone trough what some of you want to do with monero emission schedule.

I completely agree.

regarding cutting emission - you guys realize that the failure of declining prices is not done by the emission but by the probably to high expectations of the buyers at certain points of time in the past. we simply did wrong in pricing monero properly.

if we cut now - how do we know that we cut properly?

I am probably one of the least evangelizing persons of free markets in this forum - but here please let the market do the price finding, not some greedy investors who try to correct their personal failures

You mean, Monero goes to 0?

[nakaone]

monero can by definition never be a premine.

it was here at day one with block one.

it was overly visible - we have at least 15 threads here, it is in the top 15 of coinmarketcap etc. pp.

bytecoin was a premine because it was not announced - they came here with 82% of mined coins.

even the always yesterdays at r/bitcoin were discussing monero as an implentation of sidechains....

[TrueCryptonaire]

monero can by definition never be a premine.

it was here at day one with block one.

it was overly visible - we have at least 15 threads here, it is in the top 15 of coinmarketcap etc. pp.

bytecoin was a premine because it was not announced - they came here with 82% of mined coins.

even the always yesterdays at r/bitcoin were discussing monero as an implentation of sidechains....

But tell me, if Monero ever goes to mainstream, what will be the difference: Monero is not a premined but still like 80-90 % mined vs. Monero being 80-90 % mined due to premine?
Who wants to buy a coin that is almost mined? Even bitcoin has problems to find new buyers and therefore the price is declining month after month.

[binaryFate]

Monero is currently more or less premine coin.

How can you say that when the price today is about a 1/3rd of the average most people bought into?
Accuse it of postmine or future mine, or whatever terms sounds like antagonist to premine, you would be more correct.

[nakaone]

monero can by definition never be a premine.

it was here at day one with block one.

it was overly visible - we have at least 15 threads here, it is in the top 15 of coinmarketcap etc. pp.

bytecoin was a premine because it was not announced - they came here with 82% of mined coins.

even the always yesterdays at r/bitcoin were discussing monero as an implentation of sidechains....

But tell me, if Monero ever goes to mainstream, what will be the difference: Monero is not a premined but still like 80-90 % mined vs. Monero being 80-90 % mined due to premine?
Who wants to buy a coin that is almost mined? Even bitcoin has problems to find new buyers and therefore the price is declining month after month.

you don't buy a coin - you exchange one currency against another


look the assumption regarding bitcoin as well as hopefully monero in the future is that these currencies fill a niche - so you are basically not exchanging for future appreciation but for the function it fills at that current point of time.

[binaryFate]

The reality is very simple and it has nothing to do with the current price:

Premined coins will be ignored.

BCN hit the market being 82% mined. Nobody took it seriously. It was forked. XMR was born.

The shitty market condition and developing of this new tech take 2 years. XMR hits the market, 70% mined. Many will feel pity for it to be a nice coin, but will nevertheless fork it since it has no chance to fly with such a huge unfair premine. Total loss for holders.

If we want that anyone takes XMR seriously, and regards it as a fair coin after 2 years, we cut the emission now. Otherwise we risk a fork to a coin with a fairer emission.

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

The only reasonable way out is getting back to growth mode within next month or so.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero is currently more or less premine coin.

How can you say that when the price today is about a 1/3rd of the average most people bought into?
Accuse it of postmine or future mine, or whatever terms sounds like antagonist to premine, you would be more correct.

The term is irrelevant as long as the substance is the same:
Coin can be premined 90 % (mined before announcing)
Coin can be instamined 90 % (mined relatively short period of time)
Whatever mined 90 % (almost mined before hitting the mainstream).

Do you see the common factor: The problem is that it is mined too fast. I seriously do not believe Monero will be mainstream within 12 months or so. The current mining schedule suggest this.

When coin is almost fully mined, it is game over time pretty much.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The reality is very simple and it has nothing to do with the current price:

Premined coins will be ignored.

BCN hit the market being 82% mined. Nobody took it seriously. It was forked. XMR was born.

The shitty market condition and developing of this new tech take 2 years. XMR hits the market, 70% mined. Many will feel pity for it to be a nice coin, but will nevertheless fork it since it has no chance to fly with such a huge unfair premine. Total loss for holders.

If we want that anyone takes XMR seriously, and regards it as a fair coin after 2 years, we cut the emission now. Otherwise we risk a fork to a coin with a fairer emission.

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

The only reasonable way out is getting back to growth mode within next month or so.

To be honest, I do not believe in this. Risto is not willing to purchase coins so much anymore.
Now we need outsiders adopting Monero and it will be long road and not definetely done within 30 days.

[BTCwriter]

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[BanditryAndLoot]

There is no compromise. (I'm a man of no-fight usually, I'd like to go with you, but that doesn't work here).
Either you touch the code of the emission, or you don't. There is no in-between.

I would return the short term argument "Monero's life is threaten, we must survive short term, that is more important than long term considerations", as follows:
If you have been on the cryptos scene for a while, you know the premine accusation is a death sentence (on the "serious" alt scene at least). Short term, our only target to expand the community is the existing crypto currencies community, alienate them and we're dead, immediately.


EDIT: Not talking about the tail emission here. As smooth clarified recently, that part was always left open and talking about it, or changing it, wouldn't be a breach of anything.

Hm, I see where you're coming from.

Sometimes, we're better off challenging the past, in order to remember it.

Heh, I'm kinda at the point where I'd be just as worried if the emission was cut as compared to if we left it alone. Edge is a strange place to be.

I'd love to see the tail emission be pinned down finally at this point, if nothing else.

[nakaone]

the point is that you guys completely overestimate prices.

my project of reference in this wild wild west is counterparty - they also started with a very high price ~0.012 for a few weeks back in february and dropped over the course of time to around 0.0023 at the lowest point, now they are back at the prices at a more substantial level.

I see that it is little bit different here because of the level of inflation but if everything is done properly this project will fly, even with its current emission rate.

[rpietila]

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

The difference from the point of view of Monero holders is clear: forking now to a reasonable emission, preserving the balances of current Monero holders, or letting someone else fork it, and losing all our balances.

Our oversize balances as a result of premine are the very reason why the next generation will fork it. Every time anyone of us buys more coins, he should feel bad. He is making it less and less probable that the coins are worth anything.

It's like CK gold - as long as I held it all, it was worth exactly as much as anyone else's dream about a game where he can be a king. It's only the characters and the game economy that give value to the gold. The instant the influx of characters slowed, the price of gold dropped to 50%. This does not bother me. What would bother me if all the gold ever existing in the game would be sold to a few players for this pittance, because then there would not be new players willing to enter this game, rather they would take another one where the world is still young.

I hope that Monero would be the coin that speedily embraces this understanding, but if I am wrong, I am ready to move on, like I have done with stocks, silver and bitcoin.

The only reasonable way out is getting back to growth mode within next month or so.

This is a side effect of taking the long term reasonable decision of cutting it.

[nakaone]

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

or letting someone else fork it, and losing all our balances.

there are 7 (?) cryptonotes all having more or less the same functionality as monero, some are even way easier to use at this point of time.

for some reason all other forks did fairly bad - why do you think that a fork now would do better?

[rpietila]

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

or letting someone else fork it, and losing all our balances.

there are 7 (?) cryptonotes all having more or less the same functionality as monero, some are even way easier to use at this point of time.

for some reason all other forks did fairly bad - why do you think that a fork now would do better?

bF referred Monero emission change as "fork".

I don't currently see markets for any CN coins, because all are doing badly. 

But I am dead serious that if all the XMR end up in a few people's hands now, the payoff time will never come. Nobody wants to buy a coin with unfair distribution, no matter how "fairly" the distribution was achieved. Then there will be a fork, and all our hard work, time and investment will be wasted, because we need to buy the coins yet again in the new fork. 

[nakaone]

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

or letting someone else fork it, and losing all our balances.

there are 7 (?) cryptonotes all having more or less the same functionality as monero, some are even way easier to use at this point of time.

for some reason all other forks did fairly bad - why do you think that a fork now would do better?

bF referred Monero emission change as "fork".

I don't currently see markets for any CN coins, because all are doing badly. 

But I am dead serious that if all the XMR end up in a few people's hands now, the payoff time will never come. Nobody wants to buy a coin with unfair distribution, no matter how "fairly" the distribution was achieved. Then there will be a fork, and all our hard work, time and investment will be wasted, because we need to buy the coins yet again in the new fork. 

I think we all see the same problem that at current usability we are not able two reach new investors/user whatever - but the problem here is not the emission rate but the functionality at this point of time - if we had the choice of working functionality or changing emission what would you choose?

Please do not take it personally - but what is the difference between us changing the money supply in bad times and a central bank changing its money supply at a point of time?

I think it was you who explained in the most elegant way how early adopters are the ones selling in upswings and buying in downswings regarding bitcoin, the same principle works in good altcoins.

maybe I am wrong here and you probably have better data but I assume that for an altcoin, the user base of monero is even at this point of time quite high - indeed it is not growing as intended, but the first base is existent.

[TrueCryptonaire]

We risk a fork in any case. What you propose is a sure fork happening within a month, I'd stake my stake on that.

or letting someone else fork it, and losing all our balances.

there are 7 (?) cryptonotes all having more or less the same functionality as monero, some are even way easier to use at this point of time.

for some reason all other forks did fairly bad - why do you think that a fork now would do better?

bF referred Monero emission change as "fork".

I don't currently see markets for any CN coins, because all are doing badly.  

But I am dead serious that if all the XMR end up in a few people's hands now, the payoff time will never come. Nobody wants to buy a coin with unfair distribution, no matter how "fairly" the distribution was achieved. Then there will be a fork, and all our hard work, time and investment will be wasted, because we need to buy the coins yet again in the new fork.  

I think we all see the same problem that at current usability we are not able two reach new investors/user whatever - but the problem here is not the emission rate but the functionality at this point of time - if we had the choice of working functionality or changing emission what would you choose?

Please do not take it personally - but what is the difference between us changing the money supply in bad times and a central bank changing its money supply at a point of time?

I think it was you who explained in the most elegant way how early adopters are the ones selling in upswings and buying in downswings regarding bitcoin, the same principle works in good altcoins.

maybe I am wrong here and you probably have better data but I assume that for an altcoin, the user base of monero is even at this point of time quite high - indeed it is not growing as intended, but the first base is existent.

At this point I would choose emission.
I do not care brilliantly functioning coins if the only holders are me + Risto.

[Roccker]

I hope that Monero would be the coin that speedily embraces this understanding, but if I am wrong, I am ready to move on, like I have done with stocks, silver and bitcoin.

You moved on from bitcoin?

[smooth]

[...]
The question is will Monero get new users enough to absorb the emission.
[...]

Sadly I don't know if it will, but I'm absolutely convinced Monero can do so.

Sounds a bit of an old tune, but it's true: all we need to expand way beyond the existing community is a sound DB+GUI implementation.
Then full steam marketing, but it will be a pleasure to do if Monero is technically the best anon candidate

Those are certainly coming, so prepare yourself. The DB implementation is already being tested by many people outside the core group and we are getting useful (and overwhelmingly positive) feedback on it. Work on the innovative GUI continues steadily and will bear fruit before too long (though not in a a few weeks -- I do not wish to mislead). There has also been a significant uptick in interest from the community in helping to upgrade the existing GUIs, so that too may bear fruit in the form of something very usable and stable even sooner.