[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dEBRUYNE]

Of course it's bullish but shhh don't jinx it. You're disturbing my buy orders.

It is bullish THAT it is not celebrated.

It is not celebrated because the previous bear market towards the end was driven in a significant way by greed (sell low hoping to buy lower) rather than fear.

And simply because it was so much expected anyway. (easy to say after the fact... but true nevertheless).

You mean the 4 month downtrend? I have to disagree with that, monero was mostly going in monthly cycles (like rpietila explained earlier). A short downtrend was expected (although some thought it would go considerable higher than 0.0051), but not this long downslide.

[binaryFate]

Of course it's bullish but shhh don't jinx it. You're disturbing my buy orders.

It is bullish THAT it is not celebrated.

It is not celebrated because the previous bear market towards the end was driven in a significant way by greed (sell low hoping to buy lower) rather than fear.

And simply because it was so much expected anyway. (easy to say after the fact... but true nevertheless).

You mean the 4 month downtrend? I have to disagree with that, monero was mostly going in monthly cycles (like rpietila explained earlier). A short downtrend was expected (although some thought it would go considerable higher than 0.0051), but not this long downslide.

I didn't mean the downtrend, but the recent uptrend. We're getting closer and closer to significant technological achievements, we have mymonero.com, so I meant this uptrend was completely expected by pretty much all "monero believers". Thus the lack of celebration maybe.

[rpietila]

I was browsing the trade history to find resistance levels. My analysis is that the uptrend was convincingly broken Oct-15 with a great dump and new bottom. After that there was one try to get over 0.002 which failed. So there is a resistance. It seems that another one is around the level where we are currently, since we haven't broken it for 2 days. In between there has been some trade also but not much. I'd say the actual battle will be fought around 0.002.

Before getting there, some waves are likely but I'd say a "full" Fib-2 retracement is not likely. Buying at Fib-1 (0.00091+0.682*(high_since_0.0091 - 0.0091) is probably a good strategy.

That level is currently 0.00127 and shockingly enough, there is 68,000 XMR in bids above that. 

[ArticMine]

I agree 0.002 should be a resistance point. It also coincides with the early June low. What the risk reward ratio of trying to trade this is remains to be seen.

[TrueCryptonaire]

We have had bearish trend since June (a serie of lower highs). Those people who bought into the MintPal pump back then have faced like close to 90 % loss in terms of bitcoins and in terms of fiat even more due to the drop of usd/btc rate.
However it became clearly bearish this autumn as even the pattern of higher lows was destroyed.

[smooth]

We have had bearish trend since June (a serie of lower highs). Those people who bought into the MintPal pump back then have faced like close to 90 % loss in terms of bitcoins and in terms of fiat even more due to the drop of usd/btc rate.
However it became clearly bearish this autumn as even the pattern of higher lows was destroyed.

If you have both lower highs and higher lows, then there is really no trend at all (except toward reduced volatility).

It was only since August that highs and lows both began to trend lower, and the downtrend became very clear and well developed.

I don't know the reason for this. My theory has been that by August we ran out of new investors, and original group of investors had accumulated as much as they wanted. The price needed to go lower to motivate some averaging down, and more recently bring in some new buyers who find the lower prices more attractive and less risky.

I don't have very high confidence that my theory is correct. There may be other explanations for it.

[dEBRUYNE]

We have had bearish trend since June (a serie of lower highs). Those people who bought into the MintPal pump back then have faced like close to 90 % loss in terms of bitcoins and in terms of fiat even more due to the drop of usd/btc rate.
However it became clearly bearish this autumn as even the pattern of higher lows was destroyed.

If you have both lower highs and higher lows, then there is really no trend at all (except toward reduced volatility).

It was only since August that highs and lows both began to trend lower, and the downtrend became very clear and well developed.

I don't know the reason for this. My theory has been that by August we ran out of new investors, and original group of investors had accumulated as much as they wanted. The price needed to go lower to motivate some averaging down, and more recently bring in some new buyers who find the lower prices more attractive and less risky.

I don't have very high confidence that my theory is correct. There may be other explanations for it.

BCX could have scared away a bunch of potential investors.

People tired of waiting (maybe they bought assuming that the GUI would be released a lot earlier). Those people were in it for a quick buck anyway, so maybe better to not have them on board.

Selling in order to buy back lower.

[TrueCryptonaire]

We have had bearish trend since June (a serie of lower highs). Those people who bought into the MintPal pump back then have faced like close to 90 % loss in terms of bitcoins and in terms of fiat even more due to the drop of usd/btc rate.
However it became clearly bearish this autumn as even the pattern of higher lows was destroyed.

If you have both lower highs and higher lows, then there is really no trend at all (except toward reduced volatility).

It was only since August that highs and lows both began to trend lower, and the downtrend became very clear and well developed.

I don't know the reason for this. My theory has been that by August we ran out of new investors, and original group of investors had accumulated as much as they wanted. The price needed to go lower to motivate some averaging down, and more recently bring in some new buyers who find the lower prices more attractive and less risky.

I don't have very high confidence that my theory is correct. There may be other explanations for it.

BCX could have scared away a bunch of potential investors.

People tired of waiting (maybe they bought assuming that the GUI would be released a lot earlier). Those people were in it for a quick buck anyway, so maybe better to not have them on board.

Selling in order to buy back lower.

New investors are interested when the coin makes new ATHs - These are the best times to get the most attention.
However to make new ATH is now very expensive (costs like several thousands of bitcoins when we take to account the fact that some people starts dumping in addition to Poloniex sell orderbook, and also emission is a bit high to do this expensive thing currently).
I think new ATH and a lot of mainstream media attention (like Bitcoin has) will eventually help a lot in getting completely fresh money into Monero.
The selling channel of Moneroclub is definetely something that will help in this since it makes the barrier of fiat-denominated people entering much lower due to opportunity of buying with SEPA-banktransfers or fiat-cash.

[smooth]

We have had bearish trend since June (a serie of lower highs). Those people who bought into the MintPal pump back then have faced like close to 90 % loss in terms of bitcoins and in terms of fiat even more due to the drop of usd/btc rate.
However it became clearly bearish this autumn as even the pattern of higher lows was destroyed.

If you have both lower highs and higher lows, then there is really no trend at all (except toward reduced volatility).

It was only since August that highs and lows both began to trend lower, and the downtrend became very clear and well developed.

I don't know the reason for this. My theory has been that by August we ran out of new investors, and original group of investors had accumulated as much as they wanted. The price needed to go lower to motivate some averaging down, and more recently bring in some new buyers who find the lower prices more attractive and less risky.

I don't have very high confidence that my theory is correct. There may be other explanations for it.

BCX could have scared away a bunch of potential investors.

BCX didn't show up with his threats until late September. There was the first malleable block (212612) attack that happened in early September (and directly after that attack and recovery the price trend was positive).

I found the price action in the wake of BCX's deadline coming and going with no attack (revealing him to be a trolling windbag) to be perplexing. The price continued down, which suggested to me other factors at work -- in particular the exhaustion of buying demand.

[Febo]

Monero just followed bitcoin with a bit of delay. Bitcoin dropped from 600 usd to 300 from August, so Monero followed. Of Course more drastically.
Most other alts also dropped in this time, but the ones where most coins is held by few people that got them free or almost free, could not drop that fast.
It was said several times,
1. generally bearish crypto market
2. high Monero emission at this time
3. to many investors-speculators did not realize when they bought Monero is 2-3 years time investment and decide to leave it for other coins where they expect faster profits. and will return to Monero latter

[aminorex]

BCX could have scared away a bunch of potential investors.

I found the price action in the wake of BCX's deadline coming and going with no attack (revealing him to be a trolling windbag) to be perplexing. The price continued down, which suggested to me other factors at work -- in particular the exhaustion of buying demand.

I know I became weary of the FUD and tended to look at XMR less frequently about that time.  And I'm about as gung-ho as they come, when it comes to XMR.  I also had a large task backlog at work to deal with.  I basically stopped telling people about it.   I am starting to advertise it again now.  The price is so low that I can recommend it to just about anyone, without qualm or concern.  I may arrange some talks to crypto-friendly audiences in the city soon.  It seems like each time I do that, we get another buyer or two.  But the big pay-off from that effort will come when a payment processor integrates XMR. That's a huge win-win for everyone.

[bclcjunkie]

precisely why i'm bullish too, in addition to db conversion, more code re-factoring and slick GUI... the main fundamental of this coin such as being untraceable cryptocurrency still remains as strong as ever in fact developers' daily involement just makes it even more reassuring. i'm quite sure that there will be a black swan type of event when more people will have to resort to cryptos, especially those with strong privacy features.

BCX could have scared away a bunch of potential investors.

I found the price action in the wake of BCX's deadline coming and going with no attack (revealing him to be a trolling windbag) to be perplexing. The price continued down, which suggested to me other factors at work -- in particular the exhaustion of buying demand.

I know I became weary of the FUD and tended to look at XMR less frequently about that time.  And I'm about as gung-ho as they come, when it comes to XMR.  I also had a large task backlog at work to deal with.  I basically stopped telling people about it.   I am starting to advertise it again now.  The price is so low that I can recommend it to just about anyone, without qualm or concern.  I may arrange some talks to crypto-friendly audiences in the city soon.  It seems like each time I do that, we get another buyer or two.  But the big pay-off from that effort will come when a payment processor integrates XMR. That's a huge win-win for everyone.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Less than 100 000 usd and xmr is over 0.002 once again. 

[nutildah]

Its time for SaddamBitcoin to live up to his part of the bet and pee on his own head.

XMR dropped below .01 on Dec 17th. I can't find the comments that were part of the bet -- most likely they were deleted by one of your mods.

But he owes me a picture of himself peeing on his own head. Or else I'm going to start my own thread with it.

[PestoQuinty]

Its time for SaddamBitcoin to live up to his part of the bet and pee on his own head.

XMR dropped below .01 on Dec 17th. I can't find the comments that were part of the bet -- most likely they were deleted by one of your mods.

But he owes me a picture of himself peeing on his own head. Or else I'm going to start my own thread with it.

You sir, are a disgrace for humanity.

[3x2]

Its time for SaddamBitcoin to live up to his part of the bet and pee on his own head.

XMR dropped below .01 on Dec 17th. I can't find the comments that were part of the bet -- most likely they were deleted by one of your mods.

But he owes me a picture of himself peeing on his own head. Or else I'm going to start my own thread with it.

Lol yeah i read that post of him too but i dont want him to do that, he was just over confident and he should have never said that.

[saddambitcoin]

Its time for SaddamBitcoin to live up to his part of the bet and pee on his own head.

XMR dropped below .01 on Dec 17th. I can't find the comments that were part of the bet -- most likely they were deleted by one of your mods.

But he owes me a picture of himself peeing on his own head. Or else I'm going to start my own thread with it.

It's true, I lost the bet fair and square. Regardless, my faith in Monero remains strong so I must uphold my end of the bargain.

I will deliver a photo of the deed to Nutildah by midnight Dec 31st 2014.

[aminorex]

 I'd rather not hear any more about it, personally.

[nioc]

Yeah we don't want to here it, we want to see it!

[saddambitcoin]

It remains intact in the old unmoderated XMR speculation thread.

I'm tired of hearing about it too, so I will get it over with swiftly and let important discussion carry on