[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

I'm allowing the discussion of DRK vs. XMR to continue for now

A prudent move. We cannot speculate on Monero's future without discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of it's #1 competitor.  As long as the conversation is civil and informative, it should continue.

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[GingerAle]

Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

[binaryFate]

Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

Not sure what you mean with the capital part?
"No demand": well there is some, or price would be zero.
"Inherent value": this is extremely subjective...

[bigj]

Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

Not sure what you mean with the capital part?
"No demand": well there is some, or price would be zero.
"Inherent value": this is extremely subjective...

I believe he refers to the kind-of-stable Monero price -- even though a large USD volume of fresh XMR coins is generated every month. In short, that means people (in particular miners) are holding/not selling their Moneroj - waiting for better times probably. To me, this is a rare and promising pattern :-)

[GingerAle]

Yah know, I'm honestly really surprised that monero can maintain its value even with the inflation, and that no one really talks about it. I did the numbers at one point, and something like 17,000 coins are mined a day. And still it goes between 20 cents and 45 cents (yeah, im goin straight to USd here, sorry). So basically, every day the market cap increases by $3400 - 7650. So every month, $102,000 - $229,500 is minted. WITH APPARENTLY NO DEMAND EXCEPT INHERENT VALUE.

Not sure what you mean with the capital part?
"No demand": well there is some, or price would be zero.
"Inherent value": this is extremely subjective...

I believe he refers to the kind-of-stable Monero price -- even though a large USD volume of fresh XMR coins is generated every month. In short, that means people (in particular miners) are holding/not selling their Moneroj - waiting for better times probably. To me, this is a rare and promising pattern :-)

Yes - i mean there's no real world demand, as in there's currently not a major outlet for using monero to pay for things, right? In a healthy economy, the value of a thing that is used to buy stuff either maintains value or goes up in value because other people are using that thing in order to pay for stuff, so there's less of those things available for you to get ahold of to buy stuff.

Currently, there are  p l e n t y  of these things (xmr) available to get ahold of, without any actual place to use these things to buy stuff. And more of these things are created everyday.

Yes, inherent value is extremely subjective.

spec·u·la·tion
ˌspekyəˈlāSH(ə)n/
noun
1.
the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.

now, it may be a leap to go from "without firm evidence" -> subjective, but the opposite of subjective is objective, and

ob·jec·tive
əbˈjektiv/Submit
adjective
1.
(of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts.

[David Latapie]

Said otherwise: Monero is surprising resilient. This tells something about confidence and expectation. Which in turns puts a burden on us all, but one burden I am welcome to carry!

[rpietila]

In this case, 7x the capitalization and 20x the volume is still relatively small. All Monero needs is to convince a handful of millionaires to buy in to it, and the market cap gap would be overcome. For instance, I know that if I won the lottery that I'd buy some XMR over DRK, lol.

The liquidity of Monero is simply non-existing currently. Christmastime showed that a $XXk investment could double XMR price. No way even a $250k could ever be done in the current environment without going back to BTC0.004.

$250k = nothing. Any one of the current owners could do that if they wanted to, but hey why would they, they are already well invested and if anything, want to keep the price low while seeing what happens technologywise, and to BTC, and so on. Patience.

[illodin]

$250k = nothing.

I would appreciate even 100th of that, give me $2,5k and I promise I'll buy Monero with it.

[David Latapie]

$250k = nothing. Any one of the current owners could do that if they wanted to, but hey why would they, they are already well invested and if anything, want to keep the price low while seeing what happens technologywise, and to BTC, and so on. Patience.

Thats exactly why I like Monero, its in no way overpriced, the technology is honest, still has some work like no official gui atm but its on everyones table now and no one can say he/she didn't had the chance, unless the person never heard of Monero in the first place.

There will always people who could say they have no chance, because there will always be newcomers. That being said, what matters is to have an economy. An economy means there are moneros available for those who arrived "too late" (like presently with Bitcoins).

[Anotheranonlol]

Currently, there are  p l e n t y  of these things (xmr) available to get ahold of, without any actual place to use these things to buy stuff. And more of these things are created everyday.

Hey buddy, there are p l e n t y of places that will happily take those sweet monero off your hands, if they are able to prise them from your clammy fingers that is  ..including and mostly limited to: a dice betting site, an irc dice bot, a "massively multiplayer" bitcointalk forum game, and a NYC based shrink.

The list of xmr accepting merchants has grown by a massive 300% from august 2014 when Dr Atluri first offered his much needed pyschiatrist services to monero holders. That was the alpaca socks moment, by next year I suspect the growth in professionals accepting xmr will be even larger

[GingerAle]

Hrm, I never thought of the privacy component of the psychiatrist..... that due to the stigmatization of psychiatric disorders, one might be inclined to use a traceless currency to receive these services.

[David Latapie]

If you don't think running Monero is worth 0.18-1.80 USD (a one time cost that you can recover by uninstalling it) to you then I guess its kind of a waste of time to even discuss.

Monero is worth, to me, whatever it is I can afford to pay. My hard drive space is nothing compared to the bandwidth it takes to both utilize my own hard-drive space as well as share the blockchain with as many people as possible, which may will be worth much more than $.18. Again, this is under the idea that the price of hard drive space will trend toward zero because legitimate pruning is a possibility and not just size reduction.[/quote]

When assessing a cost, I use three dimensions:

• time
• money
• emotional energy (a.k.a. stress or attention - I hardly have to consider physiological energy in my costs)

I believe a large amount of people are using money considerations to hide the real cost they are paying: emotional energy, in the form of frustration.

(this may cognitive dissonance at work, but not sure yet)

I think monero is a niche coin (anonymity).

Allow me to disagree and to invite you to read carefully The value of privacy (especially the first part, "something to protect").

As an individual, you may not want to be targeted based on your spending habits or your location. Perhaps you don't want your family (or ex-family!) to know with whom or at what you are spending your money, especially some sensitive things. There are many reasons, (not comfortable with it, spoiling relationships, blackmailing/kidnapping-magnets...), you may prefer people to ignore how much you earn. You'd rather avoid "neighbours gossipping that you don't give enough to your church or that you spend too much on porn" (Gregory Maxwell). Your landlord should not be able to scan the blockchain to discover you got a raise and so decide to increase the rent, nor should your employer know which NGO you support.

As a company, you don't want competition to know that you signed a contract or to be able to discover trade secrets just by analysing the block chain (customers, supplies purchases, payroll, margins...).

For anyone, there is the risk of accidentally stumbling on tainted money (like what happened to this coinbase user). Go explain to a judge that "you didn't know". After all, if anyone can trace the money, this means that you should have traced it too, right?

And finally, for the cryptocurrency itself, lack of privacy means giving more power to miners than they are supposed to have. If they can identify via the chain, they may "start to impose blacklists, whitelists, redlists, and other intrusive requirements on transactions. [...] Too much mixing? No "SafeChain approved" tag? Etc. Sorry, your transaction never gets into a block." (smooth, who also explains here why we have a tail emission). Remember: evil bit doesn’t exist.

Countless studies have proved that people behave differently when they know they might be watched. Sure, it means they will think twice before committing heinous acts, but it also means they will think twice before acting freely.

Privacy is a foundation, like decentralisation. Frankly, at first sight, one could not care less about "decentralisation". This Bitcoin thing is decentralised so what? Blockchain is just the new toy for geeks, money works for millenia very well, and if you don't like it, you just create your own, WIR did it.
"Bittorrent also has no use. I just go to a website and download my binaries." Etc. Remember Napster, centralised?
(sorry, I would prefer to have examples not mostly about illegal downloads, but I could not find any convincing one on the top of my head - and yes, I know that Bittorent is much more than illegal downloads)

The thing with foundations is that their necessity is not immediately obvious. It took time for decentralisation to make sense. Satoshi wrote in January 2009:

You know, I think there were a lot more people interested in the 90's, but after more than a decade of failed Trusted Third Party based systems (Digicash, etc), they see it as a lost cause. I hope they can make the distinction that this is the first time I know of that we're trying a non-trust-based system.

Why do I quote this? Because, exactly like for privacy, decentralisation was not obvious. A large difficulty without an equvalent necessity. It was required for centralisation to fail for decentralisation to blossom.

Foundations are not sexy. One turns to them only when the rest have failed. Before that, foundations are called gadget or niches.

[smooth]

Deleted a whole bunch of discussion about kilobytes and 1000 vs. 1024. Please keep this thread on topic.

[Hueristic]

Deleted a whole bunch of discussion about kilobytes and 1000 vs. 1024. Please keep this thread on topic.

1000 times, W00ps I mean 1024 times YES!

[Hammernecht]

Monero is worth, to me, whatever it is I can afford to pay. My hard drive space is nothing compared to the bandwidth it takes to both utilize my own hard-drive space as well as share the blockchain with as many people as possible, which may will be worth much more than $.18. Again, this is under the idea that the price of hard drive space will trend toward zero because legitimate pruning is a possibility and not just size reduction.

When assessing a cost, I use three dimensions:

• time
• money
• emotional energy (a.k.a. stress or attention - I hardly have to consider physiological energy in my costs)

I believe a large amount of people are using money considerations to hide the real cost they are paying: emotional energy, in the form of frustration.

(this may cognitive dissonance at work, but not sure yet)

Time is a good one. Currently I'm trading not more than 1.67 years of continued debt slavery just to hold and own Monero. In all likelihood, it will be less time than that, but for now that's the number I'm personally coming up with. That is the price I've chosen to pay.

Money typically has a variable value when compared to one's income (which tends to go up and down, preferably up), and factoring in proper interest on outstanding debt in order to use money at one point in time rather than another will take the value of a dollar and change it to either a few cents, all the way up to an easy 40 dollars. Quite a large spread, depending on the person, so vastly speculative. But the good point to make here is - if for every dollar you spend, do you expect to make back more than 40 dollars, per dollar, within the timeframe you're operating on? My timeframe extends well past a decade, because my debt slavery is longer than that, so my answer is yes, has reasonable probability to be a 'yes' (because even if the price doesn't increase to, say, 40x what it is now, I still can theoretically take advantage of price volatility due to slippage and others' speculations and come up with a reasonable 40x in over a decade).

Emotional energy, yes I'd have to agree that the speculative value of money defined above combined with the additional speculative value of time would manifest in often complex emotions. Most often being shared as frustration, something which I'm admittedly very susceptible to.

I'll agree with you in that IMO it's mostly dissonance that we speculate on. My value of time changes, because some of the time I think I'll make more income and some of the time I think I'll make less income. My value of money changes because sometimes I think that my interest rates will go up and some times I think they will go down, if I'm in an agreed on variable interest loan.

I'd argue that emotions are inherently based on cognitive dissonance, so no real discussion there.

[dnaleor]

I guess I'm too subtle.

KEWL

Should we change the name of Monero to "Kewlcoin" ?

[Hueristic]

I guess I'm too subtle.

KEWL

Should we change the name of Monero to "Kewlcoin" ?

LOL, you get it. My humor is sometimes lost in the translation.

[rpietila]

While I am sure many of you understand it already, just want to repeat:

Monero is currently so small that it makes more sense to speculate on if the technology is going to make it, or if the devteam is going to stay. These things do actually matter concerning the long term.

The price is so low that whatever happens to it now, in the bounds of [0, 0.004] does not really matter. If you believe that the coin has a +EV better that Bitcoin (which also has a good one), and want to invest 1%...25% of your cryptostash to XMR, now is a good time to do it. When something happens, the availability of cheap coins dries up faster than you can hit "buy".

We are reaping what we sowed by not cutting down the emission. We are trading the current low price and unusability for the hopefully better perception of XMR as a fair coin in the future.

The Joker in the game is CryptoKingdom, soon to go online.

[Hammernecht]

When something happens, the availability of cheap coins dries up faster than you can hit "buy".

Ironically, the exact opposite occurs as well, where: When something happens, the availability of cheap coins dries up faster than you can hit "sell".

[ArticMine]

Elliot Wave analysis of the Monero bear market since June on an log scale. I see two possibilities:

1) A failed bear market with a truncated wave V if the bulls can break out above the exponential trendline. The would lead to a very sharp move to the upside.
2) Continuation of the bear market with possibly an extended wave V if the bears can break below 0.0009. This would require relabelling the sub waves in wave V