[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

.. XMR could still outperform in this area ..

True, but I'm trying to steer away from speculation, and towards high confidence predictables, to establish a floor for rational value.  I was probably too pessimistic about the monetary velocity.  I might have been too optimistic about the development velocity, but you haven't convinced me of that yet.

2. Accepting the premise that an XMR economy is necessary, that won't happen in 2015. A reasonably well-run (security-minded, ultra-paranoid) site will have multi-sig escrow, which of course is not available in XMR yet and the website admin will want to see other things in place besides multi-sig such as more liquidity.  

Anyone wanting multi-sig could take steps to get it implemented more expeditiously.  I don't know of any strong reason to think there will not be a multi-sig implementation in 6 months even without heroic measures, but I'm not really involved so it is an argument from ignorance.

I disagree about liquidity.   Liquidity is a problem that will solve itself, just as it was for BTC.  A new market will start small, and liquidity will rise dramatically as it becomes known.  Even at these dramatic volume lows, plx turns over enough daily to support the liquidity needs of a smallish dark market.  And if an operator wanted to add liquidity, they could easily arrange it by talking to large holders.

[nioc]

Anyone taken credit for the 49 XBT bid on XMR at .001111?  Have not been able to monitor IRC or trollbox.  Saw it last night and its been around since then.

A whale wanna buy a lot, nice

After 2 earlier ~12 btc chunks where dumped a 22 btc chunk was just eaten leaving 6 btc left of the original 50 btc wall.  Some existing bids were moved up in front of that wall so there is currently not much behind it.  Probably not much left to sell also..................

Make that 1.8 btc left @ .00111111

ETA: and it's gone

[mmortal03]

If you plan to invest 10 000 USD in Monero next year, divide it by 365 and simply buy daily 27 USD worth of Moneros. Thus you will minimize the risk of buying too early and experiencing the big dumps (of course even with this strategy most likely you will face dumps but it doesn't feel that bad if you do a diversification in terms of time vs. you buy 10 000 USD worth of Moneros in a heart beat).

It'd be nice, for tax calculation purposes, to be able to buy them directly with USD. Right now, going through BTC first just complicates things.

[fox19891989]

Luckily I sold some on that 0.0011111 sat wall, ready to buy back.

[aminorex]

Anyone foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0011 is foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0010.  We have an existence proof now.  "Lunatic fringe, I know you're out there."
I am hoping for 00085 to touch. Reducing my buy rate.  Stocking up on bitcoin below 340usd and waiting for more ask liquidity in XMR. 
These plateaus usually break down by the time they are a week old.  If BTC goes lower, XMR is likely to go lower as well, making the effective leverage on the future all the greater.
Patience and discipline.

[dEBRUYNE]

Anyone foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0011 is foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0010.  We have an existence proof now. "Lunatic fringe, I know you're out there."
I am hoping for 00085 to touch. Reducing my buy rate.  Stocking up on bitcoin below 340usd and waiting for more ask liquidity in XMR.  
These plateaus usually break down by the time they are a week old.  If BTC goes lower, XMR is likely to go lower as well, making the effective leverage on the future all the greater.
Patience and discipline.

I personally think most of the downtrend is caused by this, people selling in order to buy back lower. Breaking 0.0010 would be horrible, so I hope we won't touch your target.

[aminorex]

I would rather that the XMR economy were growing faster.  It needs an anchor tenant.  But since that hasn't happened yet, I certainly plan to make the most of the opportunity.

[GreekBitcoin]

Looks like i was too optimistic!


Who can make the monero logo melt like this?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Anyone foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0011 is foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0010.  We have an existence proof now. "Lunatic fringe, I know you're out there."
I am hoping for 00085 to touch. Reducing my buy rate.  Stocking up on bitcoin below 340usd and waiting for more ask liquidity in XMR.  
These plateaus usually break down by the time they are a week old.  If BTC goes lower, XMR is likely to go lower as well, making the effective leverage on the future all the greater.
Patience and discipline.

I personally think most of the downtrend is caused by this, people selling in order to buy back lower. Breaking 0.0010 would be horrible, so I hope we won't touch your target.

I think we will break it.
I will be interested in buying Moneros when we are at 0.0005-levels - we actually might go even below that - we will see.
To me breaking 0.001 is not horrible but it is a gift from Above.
It gives me  great opportunity to lower my average buying price to more reasonable levels. Since I invested too heavily sub 0.004 levels, it takes quite low price to get the average price down enough.
At this moment it is good idea to let the price be low and hoard it. Once it starts climbing, it goes actually higher than without these low levels since the whales do not spend their resources in probbing the coin up artificially which benefits only miners who dump all the coins they mine.

[edward_cullen]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

[digicoin]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

No worry. ShadowCash forks BlackCoin whose technology is not as good as Monero's. There is no such thing like ring signatures in SDC

ShadowCash is backed by CryptoAsian which is a well-known pump and dump trader/scammer

[edward_cullen]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

No worry. ShadowCash forks BlackCoin whose technology is not as good as Monero's. There is no such thing like ring signatures in SDC

ShadowCash is backed by CryptoAsian which is a well-known pump and dump trader/scammer

Using "technology is not as good as" seems too broad to be meaningful. Care to elaborate? You may want to check again, because I'm pretty sure SDC just released a version utilizing ring signatures.

[binaryFate]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

No worry. ShadowCash forks BlackCoin whose technology is not as good as Monero's. There is no such thing like ring signatures in SDC

ShadowCash is backed by CryptoAsian which is a well-known pump and dump trader/scammer

Using "technology is not as good as" seems too broad to be meaningful. Care to elaborate? You may want to check again, because I'm pretty sure SDC just released a version utilizing ring signatures.

See this reddit thread

There's little substance in the code, the verifyRingSignature() method is trivially simple and isn't called anywhere else in that commit. Their proposed function, generateRingSignature(), doesn't exist and thus it's impossible to determine whether they've actually done anything of substance. The whitepaper is purposely vague in many of the important parts, and a review in conjunction with code is impossible, so we have to take it on the face of it...which is that NIZK + ring signatures + security + low space utilisation = impossible right now.

The bold part of your message is false.

[edward_cullen]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

No worry. ShadowCash forks BlackCoin whose technology is not as good as Monero's. There is no such thing like ring signatures in SDC

ShadowCash is backed by CryptoAsian which is a well-known pump and dump trader/scammer

Using "technology is not as good as" seems too broad to be meaningful. Care to elaborate? You may want to check again, because I'm pretty sure SDC just released a version utilizing ring signatures.

See this reddit thread

There's little substance in the code, the verifyRingSignature() method is trivially simple and isn't called anywhere else in that commit. Their proposed function, generateRingSignature(), doesn't exist and thus it's impossible to determine whether they've actually done anything of substance. The whitepaper is purposely vague in many of the important parts, and a review in conjunction with code is impossible, so we have to take it on the face of it...which is that NIZK + ring signatures + security + low space utilisation = impossible right now.

The bold part of your message is false.

Thank you that is far more useful than "it has better technology".

[smooth]

Upon first glance at this SDC whitepaper, it looks like a nearly exact if not exact clone of cryptonote. They rewrote it to look original, but nothing about it is.

If correct, then I'm calling this 100% scam.

Nobody would bother to rewrite the cryptonote white paper in such as way as to make it look like something new except a scammer. Apparently the fact that they are claiming to have released code implementing it when they haven't supports this too.

[fox19891989]

Anyone foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0011 is foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0010.  We have an existence proof now.  "Lunatic fringe, I know you're out there."
I am hoping for 00085 to touch. Reducing my buy rate.  Stocking up on bitcoin below 340usd and waiting for more ask liquidity in XMR. 
These plateaus usually break down by the time they are a week old.  If BTC goes lower, XMR is likely to go lower as well, making the effective leverage on the future all the greater.
Patience and discipline.

Yep, ready to buy at 80k sat

[edward_cullen]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

No worry. ShadowCash forks BlackCoin whose technology is not as good as Monero's. There is no such thing like ring signatures in SDC

ShadowCash is backed by CryptoAsian which is a well-known pump and dump trader/scammer

Using "technology is not as good as" seems too broad to be meaningful. Care to elaborate? You may want to check again, because I'm pretty sure SDC just released a version utilizing ring signatures.

See this reddit thread

There's little substance in the code, the verifyRingSignature() method is trivially simple and isn't called anywhere else in that commit. Their proposed function, generateRingSignature(), doesn't exist and thus it's impossible to determine whether they've actually done anything of substance. The whitepaper is purposely vague in many of the important parts, and a review in conjunction with code is impossible, so we have to take it on the face of it...which is that NIZK + ring signatures + security + low space utilisation = impossible right now.

The bold part of your message is false.

SDC supporters are claiming that this was in response to the first push, there is now more code available.

[FudandShort]

Monero may need to be worried about SDC since they implemented ring signatures on the more popular Satoshi crypto branch.

No worry. ShadowCash forks BlackCoin whose technology is not as good as Monero's. There is no such thing like ring signatures in SDC

ShadowCash is backed by CryptoAsian which is a well-known pump and dump trader/scammer

Using "technology is not as good as" seems too broad to be meaningful. Care to elaborate? You may want to check again, because I'm pretty sure SDC just released a version utilizing ring signatures.

See this reddit thread

There's little substance in the code, the verifyRingSignature() method is trivially simple and isn't called anywhere else in that commit. Their proposed function, generateRingSignature(), doesn't exist and thus it's impossible to determine whether they've actually done anything of substance. The whitepaper is purposely vague in many of the important parts, and a review in conjunction with code is impossible, so we have to take it on the face of it...which is that NIZK + ring signatures + security + low space utilisation = impossible right now.

The bold part of your message is false.

SDC supporters are claiming that this was in response to the first push, there is now more code available.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=745352.msg9862235#msg9862235

[ArticMine]

Anyone foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0011 is foolish and/or desperate enough to sell at 0010.  We have an existence proof now.  "Lunatic fringe, I know you're out there."
I am hoping for 00085 to touch. Reducing my buy rate.  Stocking up on bitcoin below 340usd and waiting for more ask liquidity in XMR.  
These plateaus usually break down by the time they are a week old.  If BTC goes lower, XMR is likely to go lower as well, making the effective leverage on the future all the greater.
Patience and discipline.

Yep, ready to buy at 80k sat

While it may be possible that XMR may reach 80k sat or lower, making selling for 111k sat and buying for 80k a profitable trade there is an old saying in the markets that is very appropriate here.

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered

http://wiki.fool.com/Bulls_make_money,_bears_make_money,_pigs_get_slaughtered. One should also keep in mind that there are typically two sub species of pigs in the markets. Bull pigs (buy high, hope to sell higher) and bear pigs (sell low, hope to buy lower) and both get slaughtered.

This time of the year another sub spices of pig emerges known as the tax pig. The tax pig sells low (or buys high) with the primary objective of lowering the tax payable to some state. The tax pig then waits a prescribed amount of time (this depends on the tax legislation of the target state) and then hopes to buy back lower at the same price or even slightly above (sell higher, at the same price or even slightly below). The tax pig in this process first pushes the bear pig (or the bull pig) to the slaughter and then also gets slaughtered.

[rpietila]

Now that's some legendary talk down there!