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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312580 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
nakaone
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March 06, 2015, 01:23:17 PM
 #3081

do you really think that 1,8 Billion US$ is much in terms of financial markets?

I normally hate this bullish talk because it seems to be so much out of this world.

But we have tokens here, worth ~50 cents which have the potential to serve a market which cannot be served in any other way.

you cannot have a digital token that is centralized and at the same time (almost trustlessly) private. there is only one way to achieve this and that it is in a decentralized way - in my opinion this is a huge difference to the transparent coins flying around, including bitcoin.

all that said you have to do your calculations if it is worth taking the risk and then conclude.

if markets would be fully transparent, all informed and rational - the chance for reaching that market is given at 0,5% - I have an assumption regarding markets as well as regarding xmr.
smooth (OP)
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March 06, 2015, 01:25:37 PM
 #3082

do you really think that 1,8 Billion US$ is much in terms of financial markets?

I certainly don't, I think that number is much too low, by orders of magnitude, as a long term target.

That's why I think it is possible to reach as a relatively short term pump. Again, not saying it is likely, merely possible.

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March 06, 2015, 01:30:03 PM
 #3083

0.1- 0.2 100x + increase. Wow, I'd say your pretty high on the hopium to be honest. I'd gladly take a 50btc bet on that.

When you propose a bet, you are maybe suggesting that I'm saying its more likely than not to happen over some particular timeframe, which I'm certainly not. I'm saying it is possible and that emission can turn out to be largely irrelevant, just as it was for LTC.

No I don't think it would happen exactly the same way as LTC. I expect if it happens it will play out in some similarly unexpected way.

I kind of disagree about there being fewer alts though. The enormous wave of clones crested in 2013 has basically dried up. There are only a few dozen alts any more for all practical purposes, and crowding and alt-fatague has largely closed the door to new ones. In fact many if not most of the alts that are still remotely viable now already existed then.


Fair enough, Im obviously joking about the bet wasn't specifically aimed at you just saying I'd gladly take it. Nobody in their right mind would take it though if you want it I'm game! Without getting into deep discussions we'll just agree to disagree. My main point is it needs a BTC rally, plus the fact that for all you know a coin could come out tommorow that does what we are doing better. I just wanted to add a little bit of balance to the XMR to $100 rhetoric.
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March 06, 2015, 01:34:03 PM
 #3084

When the inflation is low, the marketcap can go pretty much anywhere.
There is no even theoretical limit how high it can go. The marketcap can go higher than the marketcap of USD.

When emission is low, the highest the marketcap can go is solely determined by the bagholders.
Let's assume there is 1coin which I hold 99.99999%. I can drive this price basically to infinity - I just do not agree sell my coins but only a fraction of a fraction.
smooth (OP)
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March 06, 2015, 01:38:33 PM
 #3085

0.1- 0.2 100x + increase. Wow, I'd say your pretty high on the hopium to be honest. I'd gladly take a 50btc bet on that.

When you propose a bet, you are maybe suggesting that I'm saying its more likely than not to happen over some particular timeframe, which I'm certainly not. I'm saying it is possible and that emission can turn out to be largely irrelevant, just as it was for LTC.

No I don't think it would happen exactly the same way as LTC. I expect if it happens it will play out in some similarly unexpected way.

I kind of disagree about there being fewer alts though. The enormous wave of clones crested in 2013 has basically dried up. There are only a few dozen alts any more for all practical purposes, and crowding and alt-fatague has largely closed the door to new ones. In fact many if not most of the alts that are still remotely viable now already existed then.


Fair enough, Im obviously joking about the bet wasn't specifically aimed at you just saying I'd gladly take it. Nobody in their right mind would take it though if you want it I'm game! Without getting into deep discussions we'll just agree to disagree. My main point is it needs a BTC rally. I just wanted to add a little bit of balance to the XMR to $100 rhetoric.

Well sure. I said 0.1-0.2 BTC. To get to $100 at the low end of that range requires BTC at $1000, at the high end $500. So either way a pretty big increase in BTC is needed for the scenario to happen as I described it.

I do think XMR can increase a lot regardless of what happens to BTC though. Many multiples.

Quote
plus the fact that for all you know a coin could come out tommorow that does what we are doing better

This doesn't really affect the upside potential (which is inherently conditional on such a thing not happening), only the probability of failure.
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March 06, 2015, 01:43:09 PM
 #3086

When the inflation is low, the marketcap can go pretty much anywhere.
There is no even theoretical limit how high it can go. The marketcap can go higher than the marketcap of USD.

When emission is low, the highest the marketcap can go is solely determined by the bagholders.
Let's assume there is 1coin which I hold 99.99999%. I can drive this price basically to infinity - I just do not agree sell my coins but only a fraction of a fraction.

If you held that high a percentage of a currency i don't think anyone would want to invest in it.

smooth (OP)
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March 06, 2015, 01:44:42 PM
 #3087

When the inflation is low, the marketcap can go pretty much anywhere.
There is no even theoretical limit how high it can go. The marketcap can go higher than the marketcap of USD.

When emission is low, the highest the marketcap can go is solely determined by the bagholders.
Let's assume there is 1coin which I hold 99.99999%. I can drive this price basically to infinity - I just do not agree sell my coins but only a fraction of a fraction.

If you held that high a percentage of a currency i don't think anyone would want to invest in it.

If you hold such a high percentage then no one else is investing in it, and that says something. For your 99.99% to actually mean something there would have to be another buyer out there who wants it. Otherwise its just a dog turd that you've written a big number and a dollar sign on.

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March 06, 2015, 01:49:44 PM
Last edit: March 06, 2015, 03:05:07 PM by TrueCryptonaire
 #3088

When the inflation is low, the marketcap can go pretty much anywhere.
There is no even theoretical limit how high it can go. The marketcap can go higher than the marketcap of USD.

When emission is low, the highest the marketcap can go is solely determined by the bagholders.
Let's assume there is 1coin which I hold 99.99999%. I can drive this price basically to infinity - I just do not agree sell my coins but only a fraction of a fraction.

If you held that high a percentage of a currency i don't think anyone would want to invest in it.

I agree.

However it was a simplified example of my point. If the community thinks the coin is more valuable than the current price and as a community decides not to sell at any given price (at least any significiant amounts), the price indeed can go anywhere.

I hate also bullish talk since it makes people too excited and they over-position themselves and end up being the victims of pump. However, my scenario is very likely. At some point this could be more expensive than we can even imagine within the wildest dreams.

In the end this is a battle of how strong are the hands of the hodler.
The one who has the most strength will be the richest.

I hope Risto and others with contacts are able to find enough the strongest bagholders for Monero so that it could get to serious price range.


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March 06, 2015, 03:22:52 PM
 #3089

It is most definitely possible for xmr to reach the above mentioned values per unit. Will it be tomorrow, no. Will it be the coming months? Probably not. In the long run however, anything is possible.

If cryptocurrency develops itself as a new asset class, all those uber-bullish scenarios are very real. The ocean of capital is immense. Even a tiny percentage of it can move worlds, that's why this bet is so much fun. Downside is limited all the while potential upside is huge. It is an enormous IF though, and the "else" would be a lot less positive. The trick is to find a well founded probability for it, which, at least is believed by other actors.


Anyways, I've been studying the charts a little. Anyone else noticed that the moves up are on heavy explosive volume, while the descents are on a fraction of it? With the current bids (and risto's weighted average volume data in the back of our heads) it looks pretty great! reaching the 20's will be a pretty hefty journey , but man oh man what will happen after it....
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March 06, 2015, 04:29:46 PM
 #3090

Once BTC gets moving again (and I don't mean so much due to speculation), I think we are going to see the next rush into alts and how that plays out is probably BEYOND most anyone's guess.
Once Cryptocurrency becomes more a part of our lives (e.g. an accepted payment system for even a few % of people, investment, store of value, payment system, etc.), then that will be huge adoption, by definition, forget about the rush to get it.

Are we going to continue to Primarily measure these alts in BTC once adoption takes place or will it be in $$$? Does a XMR price of .1 BTC mean that it is 10% of BTC's network strength, use, value to users, etc? Can something anonymous go up that much? Because the before mentioned .1 or .2 BTC price seems impossible to say to me. I think as BTC goes up in price, after an optimal bell curve price in $$$ is reached, I think we will see alts go down in price (BTC ratio), especially the 2.0 stuff. Calling that point will be key.
Tough one to call for a variety of reasons.

Regardless, buy your lotto tickets coin now and take a seat. The show is about to start.  Grin

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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March 06, 2015, 04:34:19 PM
 #3091

Anyways, I've been studying the charts a little. Anyone else noticed that the moves up are on heavy explosive volume, while the descents are on a fraction of it? With the current bids (and risto's weighted average volume data in the back of our heads) it looks pretty great! reaching the 20's will be a pretty hefty journey , but man oh man what will happen after it....

Absolutely. Most of the moves down (with a few exceptions of course) have been slow steady erosion due to miner dumping and too little absorbed by investors at existing prices. The moves up have been due to people actually deciding to buy.
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March 06, 2015, 05:02:52 PM
 #3092

Once BTC gets moving again (and I don't mean so much due to speculation), I think we are going to see the next rush into alts and how that plays out is probably BEYOND most anyone's guess.
Once Cryptocurrency becomes more a part of our lives (e.g. an accepted payment system for even a few % of people, investment, store of value, payment system, etc.), then that will be huge adoption, by definition, forget about the rush to get it.

Are we going to continue to Primarily measure these alts in BTC once adoption takes place or will it be in $$$? Does a XMR price of .1 BTC mean that it is 10% of BTC's network strength, use, value to users, etc? Can something anonymous go up that much? Because the before mentioned .1 or .2 BTC price seems impossible to say to me. I think as BTC goes up in price, after an optimal bell curve price in $$$ is reached, I think we will see alts go down in price (BTC ratio), especially the 2.0 stuff. Calling that point will be key.
Tough one to call for a variety of reasons.

Regardless, buy your lotto tickets coin now and take a seat. The show is about to start.  Grin

TBH (and i recently switched views regarding this) I wouldn't be surprised that when the next goldrush on crypto happens (whenever that may be) a decent chunk of the incoming money-wave will be directed towards a selection of alts. This time, opposite from last, the picks will be made differently though (ie: more based on promising tech). I still need to find rationalising arguments to support this thesis tho Cheesy

However I do think that this, again, will be speculative rather then based on usage/adoption. IMO a 'rush' is always speculative, since based on adoption would mean a natural growth (aka slow grind up) adjacent to user/usage growth. I think it's inherent to human nature (cause of herding/group think) that a market behaves like a drunk manic. Especially the illiquid kind we're having here. Don't some people argue that using this phenomenom/trait was Satoshi's strategy to bootstrap/kickstart the crypto-adventure.
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March 06, 2015, 05:26:28 PM
 #3093

Once BTC gets moving again (and I don't mean so much due to speculation), I think we are going to see the next rush into alts and how that plays out is probably BEYOND most anyone's guess.
Once Cryptocurrency becomes more a part of our lives (e.g. an accepted payment system for even a few % of people, investment, store of value, payment system, etc.), then that will be huge adoption, by definition, forget about the rush to get it.

Are we going to continue to Primarily measure these alts in BTC once adoption takes place or will it be in $$$? Does a XMR price of .1 BTC mean that it is 10% of BTC's network strength, use, value to users, etc? Can something anonymous go up that much? Because the before mentioned .1 or .2 BTC price seems impossible to say to me. I think as BTC goes up in price, after an optimal bell curve price in $$$ is reached, I think we will see alts go down in price (BTC ratio), especially the 2.0 stuff. Calling that point will be key.
Tough one to call for a variety of reasons.

Regardless, buy your lotto tickets coin now and take a seat. The show is about to start.  Grin

TBH (and i recently switched views regarding this) I wouldn't be surprised that when the next goldrush on crypto happens (whenever that may be) a decent chunk of the incoming money-wave will be directed towards a selection of alts. This time, opposite from last, the picks will be made differently though (ie: more based on promising tech). I still need to find rationalising arguments to support this thesis tho Cheesy

However I do think that this, again, will be speculative rather then based on usage/adoption. IMO a 'rush' is always speculative, since based on adoption would mean a natural growth (aka slow grind up) adjacent to user/usage growth. I think it's inherent to human nature (cause of herding/group think) that a market behaves like a drunk manic. Especially the illiquid kind we're having here. Don't some people argue that using this phenomenom/trait was Satoshi's strategy to bootstrap/kickstart the crypto-adventure.

it is quite easy - it will be the 2.0 projects as well as the anonymous coins.

what these 2.0 projects are really worth will be seen once ethereum as well as counterparty have released their turing complete smart contracting systems - in both cases I assume that investing in their native currency is not neccessarily the most promising idea - but I assume we can directly invest in the systems build on top of these technologies.
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March 06, 2015, 05:39:40 PM
 #3094

Really showing some strength lately. Definitely the coin of the day when taking volume into account.

I think Monero (XMR) is very interesting.
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
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March 06, 2015, 07:14:43 PM
 #3095

This is indeed a green moment. The ask wall at 19 just vanished.
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March 06, 2015, 09:40:41 PM
 #3096

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.
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March 06, 2015, 10:59:35 PM
 #3097

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.

everybody should sell
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March 06, 2015, 11:01:23 PM
 #3098

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.

everybody should sell

Please explain yourself.

Jump you fuckers! | The thing about smart motherfuckers is they sound like crazy motherfuckers to dumb motherfuckers. | My sig space for rent for 0.01 btc per week.
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March 06, 2015, 11:05:17 PM
 #3099

I am not planning to sell even my trading position.

everybody should sell

Please explain yourself.

sigh  Roll Eyes
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March 06, 2015, 11:17:24 PM
 #3100

BCX on polo says 500 BTC will be poured in the next 24h hour. He said yesterday there will be 600 in the next 48hours. User "TomCruise" says a lot of things about btc being poured in xmr in the coming hours.

http://www.polonibox.com/?username=BCX
http://www.polonibox.com/?username=tomcruise

WTF do they know that we dont?
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