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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3313152 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
ArticMine
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February 19, 2015, 07:09:08 AM
 #2521

my guess is the xmr.to definitely helped.

yeah!
I'll recommand that service for anyone who wants to pay anonymously. It's a very usefull service

Using that service means more XMR will be sold (adding liquidity which is a positive thing)
therefore I call on current (bag-)hoders to just buy XMR when you want to use xmr.to Wink
(keep your wallets cold!)

This service can drive demand up and add new people to the community who will start to take some fresh monero off the market


Would it not be possible for them to also set it up to accept bitcoins, convert those to moneroj, and then back to bitcoins to make your payment?

This would not work because of timing analysis on the XBT for starters. In addition it creates a significant regulatory risk. The way to benefit from the privacy of the XMR is to hold the XMR for a period of time. For example a person that is paid in XBT would use XBT to purchase XMR, transfer the XMR to a second wallet to deal with an exchange not using a high enough mixin, wait a few weeks, and then spend an uncorrelated amount of XBT via XMR.TO. In short without a market exposure to XMR over a period of time I doubt one can benefit from the privacy of XMR

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
David Latapie
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February 19, 2015, 07:28:16 AM
 #2522

This would not work because of timing analysis on the XBT for starters. In addition it creates a significant regulatory risk. The way to benefit from the privacy of the XMR is to hold the XMR for a period of time. For example a person that is paid in XBT would use XBT to purchase XMR, transfer the XMR to a second wallet to deal with an exchange not using a high enough mixin, wait a few weeks, and then spend an uncorrelated amount of XBT via XMR.TO. In short without a market exposure to XMR over a period of time I doubt one can benefit from the privacy of XMR
Could you extend this into an article for the MEW website? Or an entry in the wiki, maybe in the advocacy section (although not the ideal place)?

Monero: the first crytocurrency to bring bank secrecy and net neutrality to the blockchain.HyperStake: pushing the limits of staking.
Reputation threadFree bitcoins: reviews, hints…: freebitco.in, freedoge.co.in, qoinpro
waterpile
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February 19, 2015, 12:19:02 PM
 #2523

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up Sad
rpietila
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February 19, 2015, 12:29:52 PM
 #2524

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up Sad

Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction.

We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us.

If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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February 19, 2015, 02:10:39 PM
 #2525

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up Sad

Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction.

We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us.

If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects.

Low price just means whales afraid to get beached ;P
dEBRUYNE
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February 19, 2015, 02:15:54 PM
 #2526

Elliot Wave analysis of the Monero bear market since June on an log scale. I see two possibilities:

1) A failed bear market with a truncated wave V if the bulls can break out above the exponential trendline. The would lead to a very sharp move to the upside.
2) Continuation of the bear market with possibly an extended wave V if the bears can break below 0.0009. This would require relabelling the sub waves in wave V



Seems like 1) is happening currently, we are very close to breaking the downtrend trendline.

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
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February 19, 2015, 02:43:21 PM
 #2527

Monero marginal climb https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc
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February 19, 2015, 03:49:40 PM
 #2528

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions. Some of XMRs moves were literally just me. I can point to parts of XMR's chart and say "That was me." Monero's .0015 period was literally sustained by one person's buy wall. Until XMR is stable at a 10-15 million dollar market cap, it's going to be wildly unpredictable. This is certainly XMR's innovator/distribution phase. Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
rpietila
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February 19, 2015, 04:02:31 PM
 #2529

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Quote
Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
jehst
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February 19, 2015, 04:07:56 PM
 #2530

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Quote
Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
binaryFate
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February 19, 2015, 04:13:02 PM
 #2531

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Quote
Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
jehst
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February 19, 2015, 04:22:21 PM
 #2532

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Quote
Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

Well if Monero's community starts growing rapidly, then sure, we can have a long-term uptrend from 2015-2017 despite the inflation.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
bclcjunkie
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February 19, 2015, 04:44:45 PM
 #2533

+1 weak hands aren't only weak and impatient but often shortsighted as well...

is there a chance monero is going up? I'm going to sell my XMR next week if there is no sign of going up Sad

Half of the guys in the thread have the capability of moving the price 50% in either direction.

We decide if it goes up, or not. Don't be a slave to us.

If you think Monero is bad, go ahead and sell. But don't be fooled to believe there is any connection between the current price and the long-term prospects.
hodlmybtc
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February 19, 2015, 06:26:42 PM
 #2534

Just buy and hold XMR longterm, maybe try to sell to rebuy lower at a top of a unsustainable rally.

Same with BTC, relatively short-term price movements are expected to be wild, but have little to do with the coins' fundamentals.
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February 19, 2015, 09:51:48 PM
Last edit: February 19, 2015, 10:51:02 PM by smooth
 #2535

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Quote
Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

I agree. Think of the magnitude here. With a 2m USD market cap and 10% supply inflation you need 10% new money coming in for stable value. That is only 200k USD over the course of a year, or 15k USD per month. That is tiny, tiny, tiny with any kind of growth in user base or with any serious investors.

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February 19, 2015, 10:50:30 PM
 #2536

Sorry guys, but you can't do TA on something so thinly capitalized. 10% movements are just individual investors moving in and out of positions.

True.

Quote
Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

I shouldn't say it's impossible, but even bitcoin's long-term uptrend was broken a few months ago and 14 million coins are mined.

10%+ yearly supply inflation is formidable. I do believe XMR will have its rallies from now until 2017, but a sustainable uptrend will be very difficult.

10% yearly inflation is completely negligible with an expanding user base. The inflation effect is completely dominated by the effect of an exponential user base growing, in which case 1% or 10% yearly inflation does not make any noticeable difference.
That is the reason why people keep repeating BTC is a deflationnary currency while technically it's not. It is very deflationnary compared to the user base, in period of expansion.
We simply have a Monero community that is currently not growing much. Yet.

I agree. Think of the magnitude here. With a 2m USD market cap you and 10% supply inflation you need 10% new money coming in for stable value. That is only 200k USD over the course of a year, or 15k USD per month. That is tiny, tiny, tiny with any kind of growth in user base or with any serious investors.



binary talking tons of sense here.

inflation matters most and only in bear markets - that is the reason why we see this rediculously low prices for xmr. time will tell what will happen with monero.
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February 19, 2015, 11:01:21 PM
 #2537

Looks like things are starting to boil. Note that we're getting very very close to breaking an historical downtrend. Considering all this is happening without even any technical news from core team... hyper bullish short term!

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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February 20, 2015, 02:32:46 AM
 #2538

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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February 20, 2015, 02:39:48 AM
 #2539

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Yea, I know it doesn't mean much having only one relatively small market (and a few other tinier markets like bittrex and hitbtc), but the buy/ask ratio is looking a bit shitty at the moment. 175 BTC / 500k XMR is about 0.0003 BTC/XMR Shocked
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February 20, 2015, 06:01:20 AM
 #2540

Over 500k xmr on the ask book. Most I've seen since the xmr market opened there. Lots of coins on polo and someones jammed a 100k ask in at 0.00225. The games begin.

Unnecessary counter-party risk. He should store his own XMR.

True, but maybe this are peanuts for him. You have some big whales from btc among the owners of xmr.



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