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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3309502 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
Come-In-Behind
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November 17, 2014, 09:33:57 PM
 #1481

People fudding XMR in anticipation of the Cryptsy pump should be ashamed.

LOL  Grin Grin Grin

People buying in cryptsy pump should be ashamed IMO.

My advice is to find the equilibrium price for the coin and not to pump it artificially.
When the equilibrium price has been discovered, then it is time to start accumulating and the price will be able to start rising.
If the price is too high for the absorbing the coins, then the price keeps falling, if the price is too low (meaning: there is more demand than the miners can supply at the price, the price will rise).

Personally I will start my buying at 0.0005 levels and see if it is too high or too low.

Tbh, you're completely wrong. There's no such thing as a equilibrium price in crypto. Does Bitcoin has a equilibrium price? No. Price depends on demand, and you get demand from (insert here). Pumps in themselves are not artificial, if you want to go that route. Then I can claim every cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, is "artificial", ever heard of the bot Willy, who pumped bitcoin to it's all time highs seen in November? Yea...
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November 17, 2014, 10:25:35 PM
 #1482

People fudding XMR in anticipation of the Cryptsy pump should be ashamed.

LOL  Grin Grin Grin

People buying in cryptsy pump should be ashamed IMO.

My advice is to find the equilibrium price for the coin and not to pump it artificially.
When the equilibrium price has been discovered, then it is time to start accumulating and the price will be able to start rising.
If the price is too high for the absorbing the coins, then the price keeps falling, if the price is too low (meaning: there is more demand than the miners can supply at the price, the price will rise).

Personally I will start my buying at 0.0005 levels and see if it is too high or too low.

Tbh, you're completely wrong. There's no such thing as a equilibrium price in crypto. Does Bitcoin has a equilibrium price? No. Price depends on demand, and you get demand from (insert here). Pumps in themselves are not artificial, if you want to go that route. Then I can claim every cryptocurrency, especially Bitcoin, is "artificial", ever heard of the bot Willy, who pumped bitcoin to it's all time highs seen in November? Yea...

As Risto has purchased his largest single buy orders, the rest of coins need to be absorbed in small guys like me. I am so small fish that I am not able to support Monero at current levels but become possibly more interested if the price drastically tanks.
If it doesn't tank due to high emission, I am fine with my current holdings but if it tanks and I feel like Monero is good buy I will increase my stack. Right now I let others to fill their bags and I join in the filler's party later perhaps.
I may not buy even 0.0004-0.0005 levels though - we will see.
I think even decent wallets will not push Monero into bullish trend. For any serious attempt to bull markets price needs to tank from the current levels 70-80 % and then we might see a rally to 0.001 and then bear markets again, or the supply should be less than demand. Wallets do not increase demand - there are plenty of bleep coins with beautiful wallets and their marketcaps are below 1 million usd.
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November 17, 2014, 10:31:28 PM
 #1483

Wallets do not increase demand - there are plenty of bleep coins with beautiful wallets and their marketcaps are below 1 million usd.

Totally flawed argument. Usability plus profoundly powerful privacy technology is entirely different from usability with nothing to really make a coin useful or valuable compared to hundreds of others.
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November 17, 2014, 10:53:00 PM
 #1484

When can we expect new GUI wallet?
rpietila
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November 17, 2014, 11:41:27 PM
 #1485

there are plenty of bleep coins with beautiful wallets and their marketcaps are below 1 million usd.

A low market cap does not make a coin desirable. The contrary, actually. If any of the other CN coins would take over XMR marketcap, then it would be really bad.

I can't see it happening though since their community is smaller, and all the devs are in XMR. Just stated the fact.

Taking over DRK would indeed be a good thing.

Regardless of what is decided concerning the emission, I am staying with XMR. The fundamentals are still on its side, since there are no serious contenders in the true privacy niche.

The price is so cheap that buying more starts to be a real option Smiley Investing 1% more of my wealth to XMR at these prices is quite many coins  Grin

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November 17, 2014, 11:43:09 PM
 #1486

When can we expect new GUI wallet?

It's been said not before Christmas.  How much after Christmas??
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November 18, 2014, 12:26:48 AM
 #1487

reward is decreasing daily. it is going under 13 XMR soon.  daily emission is now 18.500 coins, by current price that is 27.7 BTC.

Daily emission at 13 XMR is 18720 so it is higher than that now. 18500 is incorrect.


I am not sure why then Monero Charts says that:
16th November at 0:06 was 4,644.515 coins and
17th November at 0:14 was 4,663.028 coins.

so 2 days ago was generated around 18.513 coins
smooth (OP)
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November 18, 2014, 12:28:46 AM
 #1488

reward is decreasing daily. it is going under 13 XMR soon.  daily emission is now 18.500 coins, by current price that is 27.7 BTC.

Daily emission at 13 XMR is 18720 so it is higher than that now. 18500 is incorrect.


I am not sure why then Monero Charts says that:
16th November at 0:06 was 4,644.515 coins and
17th November at 0:14 was 4,663.028 coins.

so 2 days ago was generated around 18.513 coins

There is always some random variation, but the average is 1440 blocks per day.
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November 18, 2014, 04:14:28 AM
Last edit: November 18, 2014, 04:43:31 AM by hodlmybtc
 #1489

Hope the price will stay under 0.0016 for a while, need a little more time to acquire.

Edit: Bought 3 BTC that will be fully spent on cheap XMR Smiley
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November 18, 2014, 05:30:50 AM
 #1490

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 18, 2014, 10:33:48 AM
 #1491

there are plenty of bleep coins with beautiful wallets and their marketcaps are below 1 million usd.

A low market cap does not make a coin desirable. The contrary, actually. If any of the other CN coins would take over XMR marketcap, then it would be really bad.

I can't see it happening though since their community is smaller, and all the devs are in XMR. Just stated the fact.

Taking over DRK would indeed be a good thing.

Regardless of what is decided concerning the emission, I am staying with XMR. The fundamentals are still on its side, since there are no serious contenders in the true privacy niche.

The price is so cheap that buying more starts to be a real option Smiley Investing 1% more of my wealth to XMR at these prices is quite many coins  Grin

I am beginning to doubt that argument.
What if Monero's marketcap finds its bottom at - let's say - 800 000 USD, stabilizes there and after the wallets are released start a bull market.
The wallets currently will not give any positive push to the prices since it is already baked into the price (still).
A coin has to find the bottom first and then it is ready to start rising. Why should we keep it artificially too high? Only the botnetminers benefit from the inflated price. Botnets are dumping even if monero costs 0.0001-0.0005 btc and there is probably better time to start accumulating from the newly mined coins. Accumuluting at that level is almost free of charge and I am looking forward to it, patiently accumulating cheap coins that will push my average buying price through the floor.
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November 18, 2014, 03:36:13 PM
 #1492

Yeah, the "point of maximum pain" is already reached, and many have (not) taken it and sold. The others are seeing their old coins as a sunken cost and making new plans for new acquisitions at levels they previously could not imagine.

Like I did not think in June that the 0.0015 wall would ever be needed to rise, much less that it would fill.

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November 18, 2014, 03:40:57 PM
 #1493

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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November 18, 2014, 03:43:35 PM
 #1494

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

With Amazon cooperation, that is indeed trivial to do.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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November 18, 2014, 03:52:43 PM
 #1495

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

With Amazon cooperation, that is indeed trivial to do.

Amazon doesn't run nearly enough masternodes.
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November 18, 2014, 03:54:09 PM
 #1496

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

With Amazon cooperation, that is indeed trivial to do.

Amazon doesn't run nearly enough masternodes.

Add other US based VPS services then. The anonymity relies on you saying "it's still not enough", it's a hell of a weak one.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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November 18, 2014, 04:00:15 PM
 #1497

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

With Amazon cooperation, that is indeed trivial to do.

Amazon doesn't run nearly enough masternodes.

Add other US based VPS services then. The anonymity relies on you saying "it's still not enough", it's a hell of a weak one.


http://www.computerworld.com/article/2847865/us-sets-sights-on-300-petaflop-supercomputer.html

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November 18, 2014, 04:27:00 PM
Last edit: November 18, 2014, 05:28:56 PM by rdnkjdi
 #1498

Yeah, the "point of maximum pain" is already reached, and many have (not) taken it and sold. The others are seeing their old coins as a sunken cost and making new plans for new acquisitions at levels they previously could not imagine.

Like I did not think in June that the 0.0015 wall would ever be needed to rise, much less that it would fill.

I'm sorry ... I disagree.

I know you've been optimistic all the way down from .004 but I just think the emission, anon coin bear market, the large botnets who run the majority of the mining ... it could prop up for a month or two for current investors getting more.  But then continue downward to .001 or less.

I think what we're seeing is one whale buying other whales sell orders.  The miners will continue to overcome those small fry people who are accumulating with the emission curve for a few more months (IMO).  If / when they run out of ammo before getting more people on board I think we could see a massive dump down into the 0007 - 0009 range.

Maybe I'm dreaming ... but if that happens I'll be picking more up.  For now my real world fiat needs are getting taken care of.
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November 18, 2014, 05:43:28 PM
 #1499

Yeah, the "point of maximum pain" is already reached, and many have (not) taken it and sold. The others are seeing their old coins as a sunken cost and making new plans for new acquisitions at levels they previously could not imagine.

Like I did not think in June that the 0.0015 wall would ever be needed to rise, much less that it would fill.

I'm sorry ... I disagree.

I know you've been optimistic all the way down from .004 but I just think the emission, anon coin bear market, the large botnets who run the majority of the mining ... it could prop up for a month or two for current investors getting more.  But then continue downward to .001 or less.

I think what we're seeing is one whale buying other whales sell orders.  The miners will continue to overcome those small fry people who are accumulating with the emission curve for a few more months (IMO).  If / when they run out of ammo before getting more people on board I think we could see a massive dump down into the 0007 - 0009 range.

Maybe I'm dreaming ... but if that happens I'll be picking more up.  For now my real world fiat needs are getting taken care of.

Ah, actually we agree. I referred "the point of maximum pain" as emotionally, not that the lowest price had been reached. What I mean is that (imo) hardly anyone is emotionally attached to the uptrend anymore, and could not (and would not) feel any worse if it goes to 0.001, even though the (as big) slides from 0.0045->0.003, 0.003->0.002 or 0.00225->0.0015 felt very nasty. Now if it indeed drops to 0.00075, I don't believe people will feel like jumping the bridge, which they definitely would have felt at 0.004 if presented with 0.002 (and when it did happen).

When price is not going our way, we stick to the fundamentals. Everyone would like GUI, DB, and emission to be fixed, but while they aren't, there is still no viable alternative in the privacy coin segment. If there was, then Monero would have a hard time. Now that the price is having a hard time is just something we have to take as a fact, and act accordingly, buy, sell or hold.

Unlike in previous times, there is now great money to be made in Monero. Percentage moves are large and volume is there. Situation is good for those who have any assets outside their XMR bag currently.




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November 18, 2014, 06:32:52 PM
 #1500

Quote

can somone explain how fast this kind of supercomputer could rip us into pieces? based on my understanding, besides the checkpoints, most of the top 500 supercomputer could attack monero sucessfully, am i right?
i have seen a comment once about this but its months ago.

It could, but perhaps surprisingly, not so easily. XMR miners are about 3 hash/watt. The 10 megawatt supercomputer could do about 30 MH, and the net hash on XMR has been in the 10-20 MH range. These are all very rough numbers, of course, and depend on the exact hardware, whether performance is being optimized for raw speed vs. power efficiency, etc.

So this supercomputer, acting as an attacker with the rest of the net being honest, would have about 2/3-3/4 of the hash rate, clearly enough to pull off various forms of attacks.

In the recent past (at higher prices) we had a net hash that was more in the range of 20-25 MH, which gets fairly close to the point where even this supercomputer (which isn't even built yet) wouldn't even have >50%.

We need to grow a bit before we are secure against these forms of attacks, but a lot less than I expected before I did an actual estimate.

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