[XMR] Monero Speculation

[illodin]

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

With Amazon cooperation, that is indeed trivial to do.

Amazon doesn't run nearly enough masternodes.

Add other US based VPS services then. The anonymity relies on you saying "it's still not enough", it's a hell of a weak one.

You are correct. Darkcoin needs to educate its masternode owners about the importance of using independent service providers. I also heard that consumer connections are getting faster, so running one at home isn't out of a question. Right now, in the beginning, people are just using options that are most convenient to them. If the price (and therefor the reward of running one) gets high enough, I'll be running mine on my own datacenter.

[Hueristic]

I think dark market arrests are good for Monero.  Ideally, I would like to see someone arrested on the basis of unwinding DRK xns.  Any volunteers?

I'm sure the NSA already can.

With Amazon cooperation, that is indeed trivial to do.

Amazon doesn't run nearly enough masternodes.

Add other US based VPS services then. The anonymity relies on you saying "it's still not enough", it's a hell of a weak one.

You are correct. Darkcoin needs to educate its masternode owners about the importance of using independent service providers. I also heard that consumer connections are getting faster, so running one at home isn't out of a question. Right now, in the beginning, people are just using options that are most convenient to them. If the price (and therefor the reward of running one) gets high enough, I'll be running mine on my own datacenter.

Another worry for DC Nodes. http://thehackernews.com/search/label/hacking%20news Basically anything(well most methods) that can attack tor can attack any node system.

[illodin]

Another worry for DC Nodes. http://thehackernews.com/search/label/hacking%20news Basically anything(well most methods) that can attack tor can attack any node system.

Do you mean a Monero node that broadcasts a transaction can be easily unmasked? Sounds bad. 

[smooth]

Another worry for DC Nodes. http://thehackernews.com/search/label/hacking%20news Basically anything(well most methods) that can attack tor can attack any node system.

Do you mean a Monero node that broadcasts a transaction can be easily unmasked? Sounds bad. 

It reveals very little useful information other than that the the IP transmitting it is a Monero user. Neither inputs nor outputs of such a transaction can be identified in a useful way. The opaqueness of the blockchain and the flow of coins between users does not depend on hiding network traffic nor on nodes.

This puts Monero in a relatively good position given that enforcing privacy at the network level looks increasingly difficult to potentially impossible (outside of somewhat low tech measures such as wardriving).

Of course we have said we plan to integrate i2p and that will help somewhat (the goal being to not disclose that a particular IP is using Monero at all), but even if i2p is completely compromised the content of your transactions can still not be uncovered, only the fact that you are making them.

[Hueristic]

Another worry for DC Nodes. http://thehackernews.com/search/label/hacking%20news Basically anything(well most methods) that can attack tor can attack any node system.

Do you mean a Monero node that broadcasts a transaction can be easily unmasked? Sounds bad. 

The lower the amount of nodes the more vulnerable.

[youngmike]

I told you weeks ago how Blocknet is going to sub ICO almost right after launch and all I heard was "stop fudding, go away" 

[rdnkjdi]

I told you weeks ago how Blocknet is going to sub ICO almost right after launch and all I heard was "stop fudding, go away" 

Haha what the hell does BlockNET have to do with Monero?

It's like the Value brand of SuperNET which I'm not a fan of anyways.

People got their cheap tokens ... just now figuring out how cheap 

[rdnkjdi]

Yeah, the "point of maximum pain" is already reached, and many have (not) taken it and sold. The others are seeing their old coins as a sunken cost and making new plans for new acquisitions at levels they previously could not imagine.

Like I did not think in June that the 0.0015 wall would ever be needed to rise, much less that it would fill.

I'm sorry ... I disagree.

I know you've been optimistic all the way down from .004 but I just think the emission, anon coin bear market, the large botnets who run the majority of the mining ... it could prop up for a month or two for current investors getting more.  But then continue downward to .001 or less.

I think what we're seeing is one whale buying other whales sell orders.  The miners will continue to overcome those small fry people who are accumulating with the emission curve for a few more months (IMO).  If / when they run out of ammo before getting more people on board I think we could see a massive dump down into the 0007 - 0009 range.

Maybe I'm dreaming ... but if that happens I'll be picking more up.  For now my real world fiat needs are getting taken care of.

Ah, actually we agree. I referred "the point of maximum pain" as emotionally, not that the lowest price had been reached. What I mean is that (imo) hardly anyone is emotionally attached to the uptrend anymore, and could not (and would not) feel any worse if it goes to 0.001, even though the (as big) slides from 0.0045->0.003, 0.003->0.002 or 0.00225->0.0015 felt very nasty. Now if it indeed drops to 0.00075, I don't believe people will feel like jumping the bridge, which they definitely would have felt at 0.004 if presented with 0.002 (and when it did happen).

When price is not going our way, we stick to the fundamentals. Everyone would like GUI, DB, and emission to be fixed, but while they aren't, there is still no viable alternative in the privacy coin segment. If there was, then Monero would have a hard time. Now that the price is having a hard time is just something we have to take as a fact, and act accordingly, buy, sell or hold.

Unlike in previous times, there is now great money to be made in Monero. Percentage moves are large and volume is there. Situation is good for those who have any assets outside their XMR bag currently.

I gotcha.  Yes I rode Vertcoin from $1.05 down to $.20 when I jumped out on a pump.  Then followed them down to $.05.  So I can see what you're saying.  I think there will be another stubborn painpoint around .001 but I could be wrong.

The GOOD news is that Vertcoin has like 5X total coin supply and does not a whole hell of a lot except stay GPU friendly (which it's not even that right now).  XMR total coins released are like 1/5th of what Vert will release in total - so XMR is only twice as much as Vert for the same % of the market cap.

The privacy, active devs, coming GUI, non instamine, etc makes me think it should really be worth 4 - 5 times Vert's value at the very least. 

Not sure if Vert needs to drop to .01 or XMR needs to go up...

[ArticMine]

Yeah, the "point of maximum pain" is already reached, and many have (not) taken it and sold. The others are seeing their old coins as a sunken cost and making new plans for new acquisitions at levels they previously could not imagine.

Like I did not think in June that the 0.0015 wall would ever be needed to rise, much less that it would fill.

I'm sorry ... I disagree.

I know you've been optimistic all the way down from .004 but I just think the emission, anon coin bear market, the large botnets who run the majority of the mining ... it could prop up for a month or two for current investors getting more.  But then continue downward to .001 or less.

I think what we're seeing is one whale buying other whales sell orders.  The miners will continue to overcome those small fry people who are accumulating with the emission curve for a few more months (IMO).  If / when they run out of ammo before getting more people on board I think we could see a massive dump down into the 0007 - 0009 range.

Maybe I'm dreaming ... but if that happens I'll be picking more up.  For now my real world fiat needs are getting taken care of.

Ah, actually we agree. I referred "the point of maximum pain" as emotionally, not that the lowest price had been reached. What I mean is that (imo) hardly anyone is emotionally attached to the uptrend anymore, and could not (and would not) feel any worse if it goes to 0.001, even though the (as big) slides from 0.0045->0.003, 0.003->0.002 or 0.00225->0.0015 felt very nasty. Now if it indeed drops to 0.00075, I don't believe people will feel like jumping the bridge, which they definitely would have felt at 0.004 if presented with 0.002 (and when it did happen).

When price is not going our way, we stick to the fundamentals. Everyone would like GUI, DB, and emission to be fixed, but while they aren't, there is still no viable alternative in the privacy coin segment. If there was, then Monero would have a hard time. Now that the price is having a hard time is just something we have to take as a fact, and act accordingly, buy, sell or hold.

Unlike in previous times, there is now great money to be made in Monero. Percentage moves are large and volume is there. Situation is good for those who have any assets outside their XMR bag currently.

I gotcha.  Yes I rode Vertcoin from $1.05 down to $.20 when I jumped out on a pump.  Then followed them down to $.05.  So I can see what you're saying.  I think there will be another stubborn painpoint around .001 but I could be wrong.

The GOOD news is that Vertcoin has like 5X total coin supply and does not a whole hell of a lot except stay GPU friendly (which it's not even that right now).  XMR total coins released are like 1/5th of what Vert will release in total - so XMR is only twice as much as Vert for the same % of the market cap.

The privacy, active devs, coming GUI, non instamine, etc makes me think it should really be worth 4 - 5 times Vert's value at the very least.  

Not sure if Vert needs to drop to .01 or XMR needs to go up...

As someone who started to purchase Bitcoin at over 5 USD three years ago and watched it drop to 2 USD I find a certain deja vu regarding my current Monero position. Back in late 2011 early 2012 I kept buying Bitcoin and averaged down. This time with Monero is was also buy and average down. Now if I am correct with Monero with my buy / hold / average down strategy it would not be the first time nor the second time where I have purchased an asset, watched it drop by over 50% held and / or averaged down for huge gains down the road.

If one believes that the long term fundamentals are sound then there is a lot to be said for looking at the bear, especially one that is starting to look very tired, straight in the eye and either holding or averaging down. When it comes to Monero the long term fundamentals are sound regardless of the emission rate being left as is or slowed down.

[rdnkjdi]

I enjoyed the post.

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

Anybody want to take a stab at explaining how they think darkcoin still being significantly higher fits into this equation?

[smooth]

I enjoyed the post.

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

Anybody want to take a stab at explaining how they think darkcoin still being significantly higher fits into this equation?

Its simply more mature, being based off the Bitcoin code base.

This reflects both greater awareness and accessibility as well as reduced risk factors. The latter is huge, as successful cryptocurrencies are trillion dollar markets. Current valuations are almost entirely based on risk premium.

[binaryFate]

I enjoyed the post.

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

Anybody want to take a stab at explaining how they think darkcoin still being significantly higher fits into this equation?

Attempt:
Most of the cryptocurrency community wants to make a quick buck, that wasn't the case back then. Darkcoin and its low barrier to entry, shiny marketing speaks well to them. Bitcoin didn't have back then such lazy people around not even wishing to dig further to fundamentals.

[ArticMine]

I enjoyed the post.

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

Anybody want to take a stab at explaining how they think darkcoin still being significantly higher fits into this equation?

Attempt:
Most of the cryptocurrency community wants to make a quick buck, that wasn't the case back then. Darkcoin and its low barrier to entry, shiny marketing speaks well to them. Bitcoin didn't have back then such lazy people around not even wishing to dig further to fundamentals.

There were quick buck examples back then. The perfect example was pirateat40. His scheme for a while in late 2011, actually made some sense. Borrow XBT at 7% compound interest per week. Sell XBT for USD. Here is the key: Watch XBT drop in value at a rate greater than 7% compound interest per week in terms of USD. Instant profit! What could possibly go wrong?

The rest is history.  

Edit: As for Darkcoin. Comparing Darkcoin to Monero is like comparing a propeller driven fighter aircraft to a jet fighter in early 1945. The short term advantage belongs to the mature time tested technology (Darkcoin, propeller driven fighter aircraft) the long term advantage belongs to new innovative technology (Monero, jet fighter aircraft).

[rdnkjdi]

I guess I feel like 99% of pricing is based on speculation.  Speculative value should be on moneros side.

[rpietila]

As someone who started to purchase Bitcoin at over 5 USD three years ago and watched it drop to 2 USD I find a certain deja vu regarding my current Monero position.

Bought at $3, watched to drop at $2.

Now if I am correct with Monero with my buy / hold / average down strategy

Even if in the end you did not win, the strategy is correct if it is +EV. I'd wager $100k on a coin toss any day if I'd be paid back 300k. The monero position is about the same size

it would not be the first time nor the second time where I have purchased an asset, watched it drop by over 50% held and / or averaged down for huge gains down the road.

Russian stocks 1998: Bought, -75% in 2 weeks, Bought more. (I was about 50% invested, so huge overallocation in an exotic market).

IIRC, they gained about 1000% in a year so I also did quite well.

[ArticMine]

monero stealthbomber  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horten_Ho_229 There is a very important lesson here. The allies won World War II. So it is not a given that the new and innovative technology wins in every case.

The real question here becomes is the new and innovative technology capable of holding out in the face of the onslaught from the mature time tested technology long enough to win the endgame?

Edit: A trader playing this kind of long game needs to be able to hold out in the face of very strong adversity in order to win. If the trader is overextended and cannot hold on then loss becomes certain, and someone else wins the long game. Again who has the stealth bomber now?

[ArticMine]

monero stealthbomber  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horten_Ho_229 There is a very important lesson here. The allies won World War II. So it is not a given that the new and innovative technology wins in every case.

The real question here becomes is the new and innovative technology capable of holding out in the face of the onslaught from the mature time tested technology long enough to win the endgame?

hehe, very nice. Yes they did a lot, also the V2, but nothing could help. maybe they just focused on the wrong things at the wrong time?

monero brings the right technology at the right time i think, thats why in our case, the answer seems to be yes
we are only here because of the endgame, the real one i mean

Yes. There is of course another World War II example where superior technology won over the mature time tested technology. That of course was the Battle of Britain in 1940. The first major defeat of the axis powers and many would say a crucial turning point in World War II. There the new and innovative technology was radar, combined with a very innovative command and control system for fighter aircraft. The Germans completely ignored the British radar installations. In that case the side with the new and innovative technology, the British Empire and Commonwealth, held on alone against apparently overwhelming, momentum, resource and material odds and won the endgame.

The key lesson here for the side with the superior technology is to be able to hang tight and not get over extended. Britain was able to hang tight in 1940, while Germany was not able to hang tight in 1945.

Edit: The above is why my total XMR sales since I started buying XMR in July, including dev fund donations and MEW membership, amount to less than 2.5% of my current XMR holdings. I am holding and / or averaging down in this market.

[aminorex]

At this level I am not just averaging down, I am doubling down.

[nakaone]

Even if in the end you did not win, the strategy is correct if it is +EV. I'd wager $100k on a coin toss any day if I'd be paid back 300k.

this cannot be emphazised more. outcome does not really matter.

for some reason the market is not behaving like this regarding monero. I do not know if some guys are using a splitted tongue as an exit strategy and I basically do not care. under expected value aspects monero is a no brainer - but also adjust your positions to the risk existent.

[Febo]

Edit: As for Darkcoin. Comparing Darkcoin to Monero is like comparing a propeller driven fighter aircraft to a jet fighter in early 1945. The short term advantage belongs to the mature time tested technology (Darkcoin, propeller driven fighter aircraft) the long term advantage belongs to new innovative technology (Monero, jet fighter aircraft).

I like this explanation i might use it sometimes.