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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3309476 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
othe
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December 07, 2014, 01:55:35 AM
 #1681

Hash Rate: 21.34 MH/sec
XMR: 0.00112885 BTC

Something fishy is going on.. Insane hashrate for these prices.

Well - there is not much else to GPU mine these days, LTC and Doge are not gpu mineable anymore; DRK is an alternative but you won´t get much coins with their reward formula.

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

So, if you look here there´s DRK and then XMR...and the rest is only smaller coins which are gpu mineable.

If you point a 6x280x gpu rig at a multipool like wepaybtc you get like 0.0048 or so btc per day - 3 usd ...

That is ~ 1.2kW of energy for 0.0048 BTC which is around 1.8 USD if I am counting correctly.

Living in Europe I would pay over 5 EUR for that amount of electricity per day!



Living in germany where it's on average around 27-28 eurocent per kwh (33 usdcent per kwh), i can tell you - it makes no sense at all to mine Wink

Everyone screams about botnets that are cpumining, but maybe that´s even an advantage of monero, from a network security point of view.



smooth, the last time i checked it was around 1 xmr per 280x per day on average if i am not totally mistaken.

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December 07, 2014, 02:21:41 AM
 #1682

Everybody's waiting for a starter fire and after that Monero is going to the moooon!  Grin

Need good news
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December 07, 2014, 03:09:31 AM
 #1683

Hash Rate: 21.34 MH/sec
XMR: 0.00112885 BTC

Something fishy is going on.. Insane hashrate for these prices.

Well - there is not much else to GPU mine these days, LTC and Doge are not gpu mineable anymore; DRK is an alternative but you won´t get much coins with their reward formula.

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

So, if you look here there´s DRK and then XMR...and the rest is only smaller coins which are gpu mineable.

If you point a 6x280x gpu rig at a multipool like wepaybtc you get like 0.0048 or so btc per day - 3 usd ...

That is ~ 1.2kW of energy for 0.0048 BTC which is around 1.8 USD if I am counting correctly.

Living in Europe I would pay over 5 EUR for that amount of electricity per day!



Living in germany where it's on average around 27-28 eurocent per kwh (33 usdcent per kwh), i can tell you - it makes no sense at all to mine Wink

Everyone screams about botnets that are cpumining, but maybe that´s even an advantage of monero, from a network security point of view.



smooth, the last time i checked it was around 1 xmr per 280x per day on average if i am not totally mistaken.

That was way earlier... Now its more like 0.5xmr per 280x.
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December 07, 2014, 12:50:27 PM
 #1684

The floor of XMR may be 0.001, look at poloniex buy walls  Cheesy

Yawn, why does everyone talk about buy walls like they are all genuine buys. The bids were going between 60 and 205 btc a few days ago including someone continually placing and removing a wall at 0.0007 for 75 btc. Does that mean anything in regards to the direction the price is going? Its been rinse and repeat for months. Buy walls go up price stagnates, walls get removed price crashes. I hope its "different this time" but I doubt it.

That overstates "walls are not real" idea (often true) a bit. Several of the big XMR buy walls have been eaten not pulled.

I agree over the last few months several walls have been eaten. However I disagree with that sentiment in regards to the last few weeks , after warz pulled his 0.0015 wall. Since then the order book has been jumping around massively with bids at prices that are never going to get hit just to make the bid depth look more inviting. People actually use that as a real trading indicator as can be seen by the poster I replied to and also several people in polo box. Im simply stating that its a terrible indicator and its boring to see people speak about it as a real speculative tool.
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December 07, 2014, 06:58:46 PM
 #1685

Dammit been waiting for BTC to drop below 300 to buy but it doesn't look like it's going to dip that low for awhile.

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December 07, 2014, 07:04:28 PM
 #1686

The floor of XMR may be 0.001, look at poloniex buy walls  Cheesy

Yawn, why does everyone talk about buy walls like they are all genuine buys. The bids were going between 60 and 205 btc a few days ago including someone continually placing and removing a wall at 0.0007 for 75 btc. Does that mean anything in regards to the direction the price is going? Its been rinse and repeat for months. Buy walls go up price stagnates, walls get removed price crashes. I hope its "different this time" but I doubt it.

That overstates "walls are not real" idea (often true) a bit. Several of the big XMR buy walls have been eaten not pulled.

I agree over the last few months several walls have been eaten. However I disagree with that sentiment in regards to the last few weeks , after warz pulled his 0.0015 wall. Since then the order book has been jumping around massively with bids at prices that are never going to get hit just to make the bid depth look more inviting. People actually use that as a real trading indicator as can be seen by the poster I replied to and also several people in polo box. Im simply stating that its a terrible indicator and its boring to see people speak about it as a real speculative tool.

Mostly agree. It is fair to say that some are real and some are fake, and recently fake has been the rule. I 100% agree that on the surface using it as a trading indicator is terrible, although as long as people are using it as a trading indicator, that makes it a trading indicator (self fulfilling).
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December 08, 2014, 07:07:58 AM
 #1687

Makes me laugh when people say buy is fake, obviously some people are capable of dumping 10-30k XMR at will.

Thank you Based God

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December 08, 2014, 07:15:50 AM
 #1688

Makes me laugh when people say buy is fake, obviously some people are capable of dumping 10-30k XMR at will.

Sure, but when they are 50k+ away from the market...
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December 08, 2014, 11:40:11 AM
 #1689

Makes me laugh when people say buy is fake, obviously some people are capable of dumping 10-30k XMR at will.

Sure, but when they are 50k+ away from the market...


And obviously moving on off up down the order books... The problem is fake is the wrong word as obviously if someone had the coin they could dump to a wall at 0.0007 but when the price is 0.0012 and there's 50K coins to 0.0007 its not very likely is it. The sole purpose being to make the bid depth look great and try and make poor traders buy before removing it.
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December 08, 2014, 01:46:50 PM
 #1690

Hash Rate: 21.34 MH/sec
XMR: 0.00112885 BTC

Something fishy is going on.. Insane hashrate for these prices.

Well - there is not much else to GPU mine these days, LTC and Doge are not gpu mineable anymore; DRK is an alternative but you won´t get much coins with their reward formula.

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

So, if you look here there´s DRK and then XMR...and the rest is only smaller coins which are gpu mineable.

If you point a 6x280x gpu rig at a multipool like wepaybtc you get like 0.0048 or so btc per day - 3 usd ...

This. Mining Scrypt-N coins are basically dead, since KNC published their Scrypt-N firmware for TITANS. 

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December 08, 2014, 01:52:14 PM
 #1691

Hash Rate: 21.34 MH/sec
XMR: 0.00112885 BTC

Something fishy is going on.. Insane hashrate for these prices.


It is not profitable to mine with GPU. However, it might be possible to mine profitably with AWS if you pay the ad hoc price.
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December 08, 2014, 03:45:38 PM
 #1692

It is not profitable to mine with GPU. However, it might be possible to mine profitably with AWS if you pay the ad hoc price.
If it isn't immediately profitable, people will mine to stash them. But let us take a look at the numbers.

At the time ob this observation the network was at 18834 khs, we are looking at a single pool which makes 14,90% of that.
The Top 20 list of miners are listed with their designation adress, and we can see which are pointing onto the poloniex or bittrex wallet. Assumption: Going there immediately after mining, for sale OR trade. But the assumption is rather strong that a sale offer gets placed.

63,09% of pool's hashes are going that way, 8 out of 20 miners, which 1 mining directly to Bittrex the other 7 to Poloniex.
12 Miners are mining into their private wallets but they are ~40% of total Hashrate only.

That was quick research, I think this has to be done on a larger timespan so you would need to automise the stats gathering. If I am bold and state these 14,90% of the hashrate are representive, and that the other 360 miners on pool are represented by the top 20 I can tell you 37% of coins get "mined on Hodl".
It is probably closer to reality assuming the Top 20 miners are professionals, mining for the dump and small miners holding coins. What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

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December 08, 2014, 08:15:11 PM
 #1693

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What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

Plenty when it could also be .01 next year
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December 08, 2014, 09:52:30 PM
 #1694

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What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

Plenty when it could also be .01 next year

In the first case you gain 2500%, in the second you lose 100%. I'd give about equal odds for both (with a possibility for the in-between result also). This makes it a very good +EV investment.

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December 08, 2014, 10:26:41 PM
 #1695

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What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

Plenty when it could also be .01 next year

In the first case you gain 2500%, in the second you lose 100%. I'd give about equal odds for both (with a possibility for the in-between result also). This makes it a very good +EV investment.

What's your best guess for when  1 XMR = $10 usd
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December 08, 2014, 10:28:52 PM
 #1696

rpietila speculate a bit about the near future. Not that you are the best price predictor Tongue but i would like to see what you do think. What the rest of you guys think?

I personally think that we are around the bottom. Maybe we have already seen it or it may be at 0.001.
However we dont have that great support right now. So while under 0.001 for me seems difficult it is far from unlikely.

I am seeing a few new members that seem to have joined and hashrate is going up for some reason.
Finally all time low ever for monero is 0.0002 when people traded OTC.

With some good news or a new service or a tiny marketing campaign or fail of competition coin i think 0.001 is secured.


P.S. Previous time i wrote in the forum that i dont see the coin going under a certain price it was 0.003  Tongue
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December 08, 2014, 10:47:42 PM
 #1697

Quote
What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

Plenty when it could also be .01 next year

In the first case you gain 2500%, in the second you lose 100%. I'd give about equal odds for both (with a possibility for the in-between result also). This makes it a very good +EV investment.

What's your best guess for when  1 XMR = $10 usd

I am not thinking the world that way.

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December 08, 2014, 11:12:54 PM
 #1698

rpietila speculate a bit about the near future. Not that you are the best price predictor Tongue but i would like to see what you do think. What the rest of you guys think?

I personally think that we are around the bottom. Maybe we have already seen it or it may be at 0.001.
However we dont have that great support right now. So while under 0.001 for me seems difficult it is far from unlikely.

I am seeing a few new members that seem to have joined and hashrate is going up for some reason.
Finally all time low ever for monero is 0.0002 when people traded OTC.

With some good news or a new service or a tiny marketing campaign or fail of competition coin i think 0.001 is secured.


P.S. Previous time i wrote in the forum that i dont see the coin going under a certain price it was 0.003  Tongue

I think the advent of CryptoKingdom will help XMR, it is a very addicting and fun game. It does take some effort and a little time to figure out the rules. Even my cat Riddick makes 1 XMR per day in the game and he does nothing but chase birds around, eat, and sleep.


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December 08, 2014, 11:16:11 PM
 #1699

Quote
What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

Plenty when it could also be .01 next year

In the first case you gain 2500%, in the second you lose 100%. I'd give about equal odds for both (with a possibility for the in-between result also). This makes it a very good +EV investment.

What's your best guess for when  1 XMR = $10 usd

I think that I can buy 1000 XMR for USD 10 next month lol
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December 08, 2014, 11:28:53 PM
 #1700

Quote
What sense does it make to sell 1 XMR today, if it could be $10 next year?

Plenty when it could also be .01 next year

In the first case you gain 2500%, in the second you lose 100%. I'd give about equal odds for both (with a possibility for the in-between result also). This makes it a very good +EV investment.

What's your best guess for when  1 XMR = $10 usd

I think that I can buy 1000 XMR for USD 10 next month lol

Nice! Are you in for a bet? You send me next month 1000 XMR and i send you 100 dollars.
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