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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3309507 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
smooth (OP)
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November 08, 2014, 08:15:52 PM
 #1341

Meanwhile the price is going up. If it continues that way, I suppose at one point we could naturally stop this discussion?

That would certainly be an interesting experiment!

Speaking as a speculator here, the current price action doesn't support the idea some have stated that merely having the discussion is bad for the coin price. Of course it is always hard to interpret price changes, with other factors involved.

Or this complete uncertainty about emission could have been priced in long ago, and actually discussing it currently isn't of any significant effect.

True, but that still means that discussing it isn't bad. I made this argument a month or two back: The issue isn't (wasn't) going away, so "not discuss" is not (was not) a viable option.

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November 08, 2014, 08:17:13 PM
 #1342

Once again: Don´t point out the problem; present a solution, make a better Emission curve and back it up why its better, present the advantages and disadvantages etc. Thats simply what i expect from a discussion. Just changing the Emission to be only half as fast or whatever can´t be the holy grail.

The best suggestion I've seen, I think, is from BanditryAndLoot, who suggested to take the next 3.5 years (or pick some other such number) of rewards under the existing curve and flatten them.

My rationale for this would be that:

1. BTC and LTC have done okay with keeping he emissions flat for a while and then cutting them. This is total speculation but I might guess that keeping them flat for a while encourages participation, since people do not feel disadvantaged for having arrived a bit later in each cycle.

2. 3.5 (or 2.5 or whatever) years should most certainly be enough time for build out of the technology and for adoption to start to occur if it ever will. I don't think the current 1-2 years before we are well over 50% mined and people start to look at the coin as mature but with little to show for it is enough.

3. This causes no permanent change so it has less "social contract" issues. Once the end of the flattening period is reached everything is just exactly as it always was. This is probably the positive action that can be taken with the least reputation harm. Not zero necessarily, but everything else is worse.

I'm still undecided on whether anything should be changed.

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?

1.) if only the the design of inflation would matter, the price will be an inverse function of supply
2.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to pump the coin or to keep a the pump for a long time
3.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to become a super whale and keep this status for a long period of time - if this would be the case it would hinder network effects
4.) given the design of inflation it is still more rational to buy today than tommorow, but if you fail to buy today the costs will be minimal
5.) the effects of this can already be seen: most of time the coin was traded in a range between 0.002 and 0.0045, this probably gives a lot of people the feeling that they "have not missed the train already"
6.) if only the design of inflation matters: investors assume an appreciation of xmr in the long run, which leads to the incentive to hold
7.) all that said: the design leads to a situation, where mining is rational, where holding is rational and where buying is rational. given situations of bubbles it is rational to sell and buy back lower - this leads to a stabilisation of the system

compare this to other designs of emmission.

I still have some concerns but compared to other designs they are minor

my own disclaimer is probably that I am a post-keynesian institutional economist Smiley but when this looks convincing to someone with this background it will probably convince guys on the other side of the guild much more Wink
 

I posted that back in august I guess - still think it is true - but there are issues which we could not see back then
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November 08, 2014, 08:28:51 PM
 #1343

Once again: Don´t point out the problem; present a solution, make a better Emission curve and back it up why its better, present the advantages and disadvantages etc. Thats simply what i expect from a discussion. Just changing the Emission to be only half as fast or whatever can´t be the holy grail.

The best suggestion I've seen, I think, is from BanditryAndLoot, who suggested to take the next 3.5 years (or pick some other such number) of rewards under the existing curve and flatten them.

My rationale for this would be that:

1. BTC and LTC have done okay with keeping he emissions flat for a while and then cutting them. This is total speculation but I might guess that keeping them flat for a while encourages participation, since people do not feel disadvantaged for having arrived a bit later in each cycle.

2. 3.5 (or 2.5 or whatever) years should most certainly be enough time for build out of the technology and for adoption to start to occur if it ever will. I don't think the current 1-2 years before we are well over 50% mined and people start to look at the coin as mature but with little to show for it is enough.

3. This causes no permanent change so it has less "social contract" issues. Once the end of the flattening period is reached everything is just exactly as it always was. This is probably the positive action that can be taken with the least reputation harm. Not zero necessarily, but everything else is worse.

I'm still undecided on whether anything should be changed.

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?

1.) if only the the design of inflation would matter, the price will be an inverse function of supply
2.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to pump the coin or to keep a the pump for a long time
3.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to become a super whale and keep this status for a long period of time - if this would be the case it would hinder network effects
4.) given the design of inflation it is still more rational to buy today than tommorow, but if you fail to buy today the costs will be minimal
5.) the effects of this can already be seen: most of time the coin was traded in a range between 0.002 and 0.0045, this probably gives a lot of people the feeling that they "have not missed the train already"
6.) if only the design of inflation matters: investors assume an appreciation of xmr in the long run, which leads to the incentive to hold
7.) all that said: the design leads to a situation, where mining is rational, where holding is rational and where buying is rational. given situations of bubbles it is rational to sell and buy back lower - this leads to a stabilisation of the system

compare this to other designs of emmission.

I still have some concerns but compared to other designs they are minor

my own disclaimer is probably that I am a post-keynesian institutional economist Smiley but when this looks convincing to someone with this background it will probably convince guys on the other side of the guild much more Wink
 

I posted that back in august I guess - still think it is true - but there are issues which we could not see back then

You make good points in favor of high emissions really. I guess that is why I'm undecided and why I also agree with othe that nobody really knows what the hell is right.


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November 08, 2014, 08:53:49 PM
 #1344

Once again: Don´t point out the problem; present a solution, make a better Emission curve and back it up why its better, present the advantages and disadvantages etc. Thats simply what i expect from a discussion. Just changing the Emission to be only half as fast or whatever can´t be the holy grail.

The best suggestion I've seen, I think, is from BanditryAndLoot, who suggested to take the next 3.5 years (or pick some other such number) of rewards under the existing curve and flatten them.

My rationale for this would be that:

1. BTC and LTC have done okay with keeping he emissions flat for a while and then cutting them. This is total speculation but I might guess that keeping them flat for a while encourages participation, since people do not feel disadvantaged for having arrived a bit later in each cycle.

2. 3.5 (or 2.5 or whatever) years should most certainly be enough time for build out of the technology and for adoption to start to occur if it ever will. I don't think the current 1-2 years before we are well over 50% mined and people start to look at the coin as mature but with little to show for it is enough.

3. This causes no permanent change so it has less "social contract" issues. Once the end of the flattening period is reached everything is just exactly as it always was. This is probably the positive action that can be taken with the least reputation harm. Not zero necessarily, but everything else is worse.

I'm still undecided on whether anything should be changed.

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?

1.) if only the the design of inflation would matter, the price will be an inverse function of supply
2.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to pump the coin or to keep a the pump for a long time
3.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to become a super whale and keep this status for a long period of time - if this would be the case it would hinder network effects
4.) given the design of inflation it is still more rational to buy today than tommorow, but if you fail to buy today the costs will be minimal
5.) the effects of this can already be seen: most of time the coin was traded in a range between 0.002 and 0.0045, this probably gives a lot of people the feeling that they "have not missed the train already"
6.) if only the design of inflation matters: investors assume an appreciation of xmr in the long run, which leads to the incentive to hold
7.) all that said: the design leads to a situation, where mining is rational, where holding is rational and where buying is rational. given situations of bubbles it is rational to sell and buy back lower - this leads to a stabilisation of the system

compare this to other designs of emmission.

I still have some concerns but compared to other designs they are minor

my own disclaimer is probably that I am a post-keynesian institutional economist Smiley but when this looks convincing to someone with this background it will probably convince guys on the other side of the guild much more Wink
 

I posted that back in august I guess - still think it is true - but there are issues which we could not see back then

You make good points in favor of high emissions really. I guess that is why I'm undecided and why I also agree with othe that nobody really knows what the hell is right.




Then how about what is Better. A slower emission may not be what's "perfect", but it sure is better than a higher one.
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November 08, 2014, 09:18:43 PM
 #1345

Once again: Don´t point out the problem; present a solution, make a better Emission curve and back it up why its better, present the advantages and disadvantages etc. Thats simply what i expect from a discussion. Just changing the Emission to be only half as fast or whatever can´t be the holy grail.

The best suggestion I've seen, I think, is from BanditryAndLoot, who suggested to take the next 3.5 years (or pick some other such number) of rewards under the existing curve and flatten them.

My rationale for this would be that:

1. BTC and LTC have done okay with keeping he emissions flat for a while and then cutting them. This is total speculation but I might guess that keeping them flat for a while encourages participation, since people do not feel disadvantaged for having arrived a bit later in each cycle.

2. 3.5 (or 2.5 or whatever) years should most certainly be enough time for build out of the technology and for adoption to start to occur if it ever will. I don't think the current 1-2 years before we are well over 50% mined and people start to look at the coin as mature but with little to show for it is enough.

3. This causes no permanent change so it has less "social contract" issues. Once the end of the flattening period is reached everything is just exactly as it always was. This is probably the positive action that can be taken with the least reputation harm. Not zero necessarily, but everything else is worse.

I'm still undecided on whether anything should be changed.

I think for several reasons that the emmission rate of xmr is close to perfect - the only thing i am unsure is if the price is probably to high. but we will see.

if you study the emmission rate in a greater detail you'll see the beauty. from an economics perspective it has quite a ton of very interesting implications.

this place is so used to pump and dump that it forgets where the true value of a decentralized currency can be found. its possibility to create network effects.

Could you share more details?

1.) if only the the design of inflation would matter, the price will be an inverse function of supply
2.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to pump the coin or to keep a the pump for a long time
3.) given the high amount of daily produced coins it is almost impossible to become a super whale and keep this status for a long period of time - if this would be the case it would hinder network effects
4.) given the design of inflation it is still more rational to buy today than tommorow, but if you fail to buy today the costs will be minimal
5.) the effects of this can already be seen: most of time the coin was traded in a range between 0.002 and 0.0045, this probably gives a lot of people the feeling that they "have not missed the train already"
6.) if only the design of inflation matters: investors assume an appreciation of xmr in the long run, which leads to the incentive to hold
7.) all that said: the design leads to a situation, where mining is rational, where holding is rational and where buying is rational. given situations of bubbles it is rational to sell and buy back lower - this leads to a stabilisation of the system

compare this to other designs of emmission.

I still have some concerns but compared to other designs they are minor

my own disclaimer is probably that I am a post-keynesian institutional economist Smiley but when this looks convincing to someone with this background it will probably convince guys on the other side of the guild much more Wink
 

I posted that back in august I guess - still think it is true - but there are issues which we could not see back then

You make good points in favor of high emissions really. I guess that is why I'm undecided and why I also agree with othe that nobody really knows what the hell is right.




Then how about what is Better. A slower emission may not be what's "perfect", but it sure is better than a higher one.

Bold #1:  I also liked BanditryAndLoot's idea.

Bold #2:  Would a slower emissions still be fast enough to fit nakaone's thoughts?

Bold #3:  How much better would a change need to be? Grin Grin Grin
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November 08, 2014, 10:09:48 PM
 #1346

look what we economists massive fail at is putting things in a timely perspective - this is not only true for me but for mostly all guys being in this field Smiley

therefore ristos points are at least as valid as mine - we did not know in august that it takes forever to produce a gui (still do not completely get why it takes soo long, but it is not my field) - I assumed at that time that we have a wallet around this time but definietely before christmas.

let me be clear and fair here - I thought when we are all manic about monero that in boring times, like we had in the the last few weeks, the price would somewhat buttom around 0.0025 - we are below that and the question is how dramatic this is.

I am as undecided about this issue as you are.

I think what would greatly help would be an estimation when there is the possibility for not-uber-tech-savvy to adopt aka when we can see a wallet. if risto has better informations about that and it really takes  months or half a year, I am definetely FOR a change, when it is a matter of weeks, I am definetely for staying at the current emission.  
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November 09, 2014, 01:43:54 AM
 #1347

http://www.coindesk.com/day-reckoning-dark-markets-hundreds-illicit-domains/

Expect the transactions to/from seized wallets to be heavily used to prove charges.
This is the time for privacy-oriented solutions to come to light...

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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November 09, 2014, 02:05:57 AM
 #1348

For the first time in can't remember how long (early in the history of this thread that's for sure), I exercised moderator power and deleted a post by "bagholder" (a newbie sock puppet, which is already a warning sign) that was one part trolling and one part promoting BBR.

I don't care if you are negative on Monero, or like another coin better, but I'm not interested in the trolling style of posting meme pictures and such on this thread. Nor obvious sock puppets.

Say what you want to say in a courteous respectful tone, even if you disagree, or say it elsewhere.

I will be adding an explicit warning against blatant sock puppetry and trolling to the OP as well.


Quote
Off topic includes any extensive discussion of other coins, promoting other coins, or posting of promotional materials from other coins.
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November 09, 2014, 02:12:54 AM
 #1349

For the first time in can't remember how long (early in the history of this thread that's for sure), I exercised moderator power and deleted a post by "bagholder" (a newbie sock puppet, which is already a warning sign) that was one part trolling and one part promoting BBR.

I don't care if you are negative on Monero, or like another coin better, but I'm not interested in the trolling style of posting meme pictures and such on this thread. Nor obvious sock puppets.

Say what you want to say in a courteous respectful tone, even if you disagree, or say it elsewhere.


They did start with trolling for 80% of the space the post took up .. then made the 'rational' point, which easily could have been a troll point. Hard to tell when your post is 80% spiteful troll at least.

Even if they did find a reason to stuff themself up a sock .. only 4-5 lines there even made sense at all .. the rest was just kinda lame. Admittedly though, I did chuckle for a second or two at at least one line.

I'd agree that the post was prime for deletion.

If the author came back and restated the last couple of lines .. then that would have been almost worthy of commenting on.

And it's only at the end of fall, that we discover it was naught but the wind that knew when one particular leaf was to fall from one particular tree, only to land in one distinct spot .. to be left for an eternity, and waste its time in a wait sublime. C0A2A1C4
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November 09, 2014, 02:32:20 AM
 #1350

For the first time in can't remember how long (early in the history of this thread that's for sure), I exercised moderator power and deleted a post by "bagholder" (a newbie sock puppet, which is already a warning sign) that was one part trolling and one part promoting BBR.

I don't care if you are negative on Monero, or like another coin better, but I'm not interested in the trolling style of posting meme pictures and such on this thread. Nor obvious sock puppets.

Say what you want to say in a courteous respectful tone, even if you disagree, or say it elsewhere.


They did start with trolling for 80% of the space the post took up .. then made the 'rational' point, which easily could have been a troll point. Hard to tell when your post is 80% spiteful troll at least.

Even if they did find a reason to stuff themself up a sock .. only 4-5 lines there even made sense at all .. the rest was just kinda lame. Admittedly though, I did chuckle for a second or two at at least one line.

I'd agree that the post was prime for deletion.

If the author came back and restated the last couple of lines .. then that would have been almost worthy of commenting on.


I agree, that post was obvious trolling, coming from a ex troll Cpt himself.

Also, the recent seizure of underground markets, primarily Silk Road 2, and the arrest of several vendors using those markets, should increase adoption with anonymity coins i.e Monero.
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November 09, 2014, 02:40:09 AM
 #1351

Also, the recent seizure of underground markets, primarily Silk Road 2, and the arrest of several vendors using those markets, should increase adoption with anonymity coins i.e Monero.

I'd hope so .. but what overall led to the markets getting their servers seized?

Were there any explicit details on how information was compromised?


And it's only at the end of fall, that we discover it was naught but the wind that knew when one particular leaf was to fall from one particular tree, only to land in one distinct spot .. to be left for an eternity, and waste its time in a wait sublime. C0A2A1C4
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November 09, 2014, 02:42:58 AM
 #1352

Also, the recent seizure of underground markets, primarily Silk Road 2, and the arrest of several vendors using those markets, should increase adoption with anonymity coins i.e Monero.

DRK is up about 50% in the past few days. It got some coverage in the mass media after the seizures. Whether that leads to attention or use in underground markets or just attention or use by people interested in privacy, or just attention, it is a lot of free exposure.

XMR is up about 10%. We don't get that kind of exposure, though occasionally we do get some (NewLiberty's appearance on a LTBTC show was a very nice bit of exposure for us).

This is why I'm convinced it is important that we not fall to far into obscurity, and size price does matter.

Success brings more success, and coins out of the top 20 or so by market cap have almost no chance to ever get any exposure, unless they are very new and "up and coming" (which we're not).

In the privacy segment we are clearly #2 right now, which is not terrible. Certainly not as good as #1 when even being #1 in the segment means living in the distant shadow of #1 (Bitcoin) which in turn is in the distant shadow of #0 (fiat).

We have to not lose that position. It's about all we have.

BanditryAndLoot: it looks like Tor was compromised. Explicit details will likely not be forthcoming for some time, if ever.
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November 09, 2014, 02:50:20 AM
 #1353

Yes, that's what I'd been told as well.

I was fishing in other places but nobody really seems to have links.

All I've read is something with ddosing .. no details though.

And it's only at the end of fall, that we discover it was naught but the wind that knew when one particular leaf was to fall from one particular tree, only to land in one distinct spot .. to be left for an eternity, and waste its time in a wait sublime. C0A2A1C4
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November 09, 2014, 02:55:17 AM
 #1354

Yes, that's what I'd been told as well.

I was fishing in other places but nobody really seems to have links.

All I've read is something with ddosing .. no details though.

More questions than answers but some hints, including the CMU connection.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2014/11/07/how-did-law-enforcement-break-tor/
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November 09, 2014, 06:25:21 AM
 #1355

'bagholder' created his own thread. If you prefer that style of communication feel free to head over there.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=852504.0
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November 09, 2014, 07:02:17 AM
 #1356

This exact scene popped in my head, as I looked at my hard earned hundred dollar bills today, and made the executive decision to put them in the bank, buy some BTC, and reclaim yet another 10% of my original XMR holdings.




Cheesy Cheesy

Jobs sure do turn a short term outlook right around! Also, payday, etc ...

Looks like I'm not the only one either!


And it's only at the end of fall, that we discover it was naught but the wind that knew when one particular leaf was to fall from one particular tree, only to land in one distinct spot .. to be left for an eternity, and waste its time in a wait sublime. C0A2A1C4
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November 09, 2014, 07:12:02 AM
 #1357

This exact scene popped in my head, as I looked at my hard earned hundred dollar bills today, and made the executive decision to put them in the bank, buy some BTC, and reclaim yet another 10% of my original XMR holdings.




Cheesy Cheesy

Jobs sure do turn a short term outlook right around! Also, payday, etc ...

Looks like I'm not the only one either!



This is off topic but damn that beef looks delicious.
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November 09, 2014, 08:49:03 AM
 #1358


(...)

 (NewLiberty's appearance on a LTBTC show was a very nice bit of exposure for us).

(...)


Do you happen to remember which episode that was?

Thank you.

Die Würde des Menschen ist unantastbar
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November 09, 2014, 09:06:34 AM
 #1359


(...)

 (NewLiberty's appearance on a LTBTC show was a very nice bit of exposure for us).

(...)


Do you happen to remember which episode that was?

Thank you.

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-bitcoin-game-3-joseph-vaughn-perling
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November 09, 2014, 09:12:53 AM
 #1360


(...)

 (NewLiberty's appearance on a LTBTC show was a very nice bit of exposure for us).

(...)


Do you happen to remember which episode that was?

Thank you.

http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/the-bitcoin-game-3-joseph-vaughn-perling

Thanks a lot smooth!

Die Würde des Menschen ist unantastbar
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