[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

The good thing is that the more the community members get coins, the more there is incentive to drive the price to the moon.
Monero is soon mined 40 % (assuming 18.4 million will be the max number of coins) so I guess now it starts to be time to kick-ass with power.

New investors are needed especially to eat the coins and helping us to drive the price even higher.  

After the price is driven high, it is time to create more services for Monero (already now can some services be developed, but the higher the price goes to more urgent it will become due to increased demand). Services that accept Moneros also prevents large dumps at least in some extend (why to dump to exchanges when you can dump your coins to the merchants who do not hopefully dump them straight ahead to the exchange on our behalf). We need to create stuff Risto can spend his Moneros on as he told somewhere that his plan is to spend Moneros whenever he needs to do so.   Perhaps a castle renovation service accepting Moneros should be organized.  

[futureofbitcoin]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Perhaps in the future, when/if monero's market cap is significantly higher and more liquid, it could be an easy way for lottery winners to hide their assets, at least the ones who are/want to be anonymous. Lottery winners probably don't have the prowess, knowledge or network to effectively hide their winnings, and monero might offer a surprisingly easy way to do so. We've all heard of stories where lottery winners receive thousands of letters begging them for money, distant relatives who's great-great-great-great parents were cousins and "friends" they've met once at a coffee shop all come out to pester them with business opportunities and so on. They certainly have an incentive to use monero.

So what I'm trying to say is, I'm not even sure monero needs services, at least not the same services that are trying to make bitcoin mainstream, because I don't think monero's place is to function as a currency but as a store of value.

[Joshuar]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Perhaps in the future, when/if monero's market cap is significantly higher and more liquid, it could be an easy way for lottery winners to hide their assets, at least the ones who are/want to be anonymous. Lottery winners probably don't have the prowess, knowledge or network to effectively hide their winnings, and monero might offer a surprisingly easy way to do so. We've all heard of stories where lottery winners receive thousands of letters begging them for money, distant relatives who's great-great-great-great parents were cousins and "friends" they've met once at a coffee shop all come out to pester them with business opportunities and so on. They certainly have an incentive to use monero.

So what I'm trying to say is, I'm not even sure monero needs services, at least not the same services that are trying to make bitcoin mainstream, because I don't think monero's place is to function as a currency but as a store of value.

It's the opposite when you look at things carefully. Bitcoin isn't a "currency", it truly is more commodity like than currency like. That's because bitcoiners tend to hoard their coins, which decreases liquidity, as well as coins being lost over the years, also decreasing liquidity. This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin's price is so volatile, and why it's hard(ish) to get average people to use Bitcoin to buy/sell things instead of for speculative investments/gambling. Couple bitcoin's lack of (future?) liquidity with relatively weak fungibility and you have a store of value(Like gold), not a everyday currency.

In that sense, Monero is much more like a currency, while Bitcoin is more like a store of value.

[smooth]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not.

The issue isn't so much the Aero bar purchase itself as much that with a transparent blockchain even making that simple purchase can be linked to your other transactions and financial business. Plus there are certainly everyday purchases (maybe something a little more private than chocolate) that people don't necessarily want broadcast to the world.

Ultimately though we aren't telling people what to do with Monero, so the market will figure out what uses make sense if any.

[opennux]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Perhaps in the future, when/if monero's market cap is significantly higher and more liquid, it could be an easy way for lottery winners to hide their assets, at least the ones who are/want to be anonymous. Lottery winners probably don't have the prowess, knowledge or network to effectively hide their winnings, and monero might offer a surprisingly easy way to do so. We've all heard of stories where lottery winners receive thousands of letters begging them for money, distant relatives who's great-great-great-great parents were cousins and "friends" they've met once at a coffee shop all come out to pester them with business opportunities and so on. They certainly have an incentive to use monero.

So what I'm trying to say is, I'm not even sure monero needs services, at least not the same services that are trying to make bitcoin mainstream, because I don't think monero's place is to function as a currency but as a store of value.

Really? Sorry for the rhetoricals, but do you want you health insurance to make statistics on your chocolate bar consumption? Do you want your boss to know when you stop buying prophylactics, or what you're buying at the pharmacy? Do you want merchants knowing your willingness to pay a certain price compared to other customers? Do you want to be censored/excluded/persecuted because you supported the democrats (insert any other political fraction) or wikileaks? Would you like for your customers to see the price you pay for the goods you sell them (and where you buy them)? Would you like that people can see you're visiting the psychiatrist - and which medicine he/she prescribed because of price correlation? Would the local diner like to see that all customers can see that some of the regulars get discounts? Do you want people (thieves e.g.) to see not just that you go to the movies - but when you go to the movies (so you are out of home), or that you are paying for things overseas (i.e. you are away on holiday).

The examples are endless in my opinion.

[futureofbitcoin]

I have to say that I really don't, and I think the vast majority (or at least a good number of ordinary folks) of the world doesn't. More important things to care about.

That said, I guess I can see that some people might care about such things, which does give it value. Is it enough to make monero mainstream? Only time will tell.

[jehst]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Perhaps in the future, when/if monero's market cap is significantly higher and more liquid, it could be an easy way for lottery winners to hide their assets, at least the ones who are/want to be anonymous. Lottery winners probably don't have the prowess, knowledge or network to effectively hide their winnings, and monero might offer a surprisingly easy way to do so. We've all heard of stories where lottery winners receive thousands of letters begging them for money, distant relatives who's great-great-great-great parents were cousins and "friends" they've met once at a coffee shop all come out to pester them with business opportunities and so on. They certainly have an incentive to use monero.

So what I'm trying to say is, I'm not even sure monero needs services, at least not the same services that are trying to make bitcoin mainstream, because I don't think monero's place is to function as a currency but as a store of value.

Really? Sorry for the rhetoricals, but do you want you health insurance to make statistics on your chocolate bar consumption? Do you want your boss to know when you stop buying prophylactics, or what you're buying at the pharmacy? Do you want merchants knowing your willingness to pay a certain price compared to other customers? Do you want to be censored/excluded/persecuted because you supported the democrats (insert any other political fraction) or wikileaks? Would you like for your customers to see the price you pay for the goods you sell them (and where you buy them)? Would you like that people can see you're visiting the psychiatrist - and which medicine he/she prescribed because of price correlation? Would the local diner like to see that all customers can see that some of the regulars get discounts? Do you want people (thieves e.g.) to see not just that you go to the movies - but when you go to the movies (so you are out of home), or that you are paying for things overseas (i.e. you are away on holiday).

The examples are endless in my opinion.

I don't want anyone to know anything about my finances without my consent. I guess other people don't feel strongly about that yet. Otherwise, XMR would be #2. I hate to wish for bad things to happen, but perhaps it will take a privacy/fungibility-disaster for people to finally wake up. Someone will be arrested by the police because of taint or targeted for theft or kidnapping after they reveal a high balance. Something will happen that will be big in the media and they will be forced to confront the issue.

[coinits]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Perhaps in the future, when/if monero's market cap is significantly higher and more liquid, it could be an easy way for lottery winners to hide their assets, at least the ones who are/want to be anonymous. Lottery winners probably don't have the prowess, knowledge or network to effectively hide their winnings, and monero might offer a surprisingly easy way to do so. We've all heard of stories where lottery winners receive thousands of letters begging them for money, distant relatives who's great-great-great-great parents were cousins and "friends" they've met once at a coffee shop all come out to pester them with business opportunities and so on. They certainly have an incentive to use monero.

So what I'm trying to say is, I'm not even sure monero needs services, at least not the same services that are trying to make bitcoin mainstream, because I don't think monero's place is to function as a currency but as a store of value.

Really? Sorry for the rhetoricals, but do you want you health insurance to make statistics on your chocolate bar consumption? Do you want your boss to know when you stop buying prophylactics, or what you're buying at the pharmacy? Do you want merchants knowing your willingness to pay a certain price compared to other customers? Do you want to be censored/excluded/persecuted because you supported the democrats (insert any other political fraction) or wikileaks? Would you like for your customers to see the price you pay for the goods you sell them (and where you buy them)? Would you like that people can see you're visiting the psychiatrist - and which medicine he/she prescribed because of price correlation? Would the local diner like to see that all customers can see that some of the regulars get discounts? Do you want people (thieves e.g.) to see not just that you go to the movies - but when you go to the movies (so you are out of home), or that you are paying for things overseas (i.e. you are away on holiday).

The examples are endless in my opinion.

Great explanation and something to show to people when they say 'I don't care about privacy and you shouldn't either if you have nothing to hide'. I get sick of that argument and nervous as hell when a politician says it or some variant thereof.

Your comment got me thinking about who will be the first to develop a qt for some shit coin that places targeted banner ads across the wallet based on their spending habits.

I'll be surprised if it has not already happened

[smooth]

I have to say that I really don't, and I think the vast majority (or at least a good number of ordinary folks) of the world doesn't. More important things to care about.

It is actually pretty clear you are correct, if you look at how the whole commercial and government spying industry has developed. It's not the case that people aren't aware of it, but most really and truly don't care.

So as you say there may be more some narrower niches that drive adoption, at least at first.

Or fungibility might drive the issue more than privacy. (For example, even today I would be reluctant to receive Bitcoins from a third party into my Coinbase account, or even receive Bitcoins and then send them there. In fact sending Bitcoins from a Coinbase account is a bit risky too.)

Or public opinion might shift on the privacy question in some unknown and unexpected way. Always hard to predict the future.

[MoneroMooo]

I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Monero needs to have a very significant legal, mundane, use, for at least three reasons.

First, having a significant legal use means that at least some jurisdictions can't just ban it, and criminalize anyone found running a monero node. If the vast majority of Monero use is illegal, this could be done. Note that this doesn't prevent illegal spying/compromising, nor more targetted attacks, and it doesn't prevent full criminalization in all jurisdictions, in case someone might want to pretend I claim that.

Second, having more uses brings more people, liquidity, decentralization, and hash rate. All are good, directly or indirectly, for Monero's security and usefulness.

Third, it's a point of principle. Normal run of the mill people conducting boring transactions have the right to privacy, even if it's being shredded and stomped over every minute nowadays. Monero can serve as a light of hope that privacy is still possible, maybe encouraging others to being privacy helping software in other areas.

[smooth]

Second, having more uses brings more people, liquidity, decentralization, and hash rate. All are good, directly or indirectly, for Monero's security and usefulness.

I think this is pretty important, and we've discussed several times since the start of Monero. If the only thing you can do with Monero is illicit trade, then sellers will just dump it as soon as they get it, in exchange for something they can actually spend. No willingness to hold means no store of value at all. For people to hold money they have to be able to use it for unknown future purchase needs, and that requires wide acceptability and use. You can't live on drugs alone.

[GingerAle]

I have to say that I really don't, and I think the vast majority (or at least a good number of ordinary folks) of the world doesn't. More important things to care about.

It is actually pretty clear you are correct, if you look at how the whole commercial and government spying industry has developed. It's not the case that people aren't aware of it, but most really and truly don't care.

I think people care, its just that they feel powerless to stop it. Kind of like "yeah, but what are yah gonna do?" I guess the answer would be to use cash for everything, but for some people they don't feel safe or for whatever reason there's a combination of things that outweighs the lack of privacy.

[generalizethis]

I'm gonna stay away from any judgement calls about dark markets or the average person's desire for privacy, and bring everyone back to the original fireside chat where fluffy was showing off how they were using Iframes to build the GUI. He kept saying "power users" and that is the use-case that brought me into Monero. A power user wants control, and a currency that offers privacy (as well as a GUI that represents how they manage their day-to-day lives) gives it to them. Monero is an accurate reflection of a certain segment of the population who want control of as much as their lives as possible. These people are leaders, self-sustained individualists, contrarians, the young and exuberant, or maybe (hopefully) just about anyone who takes more than a passive interest in their life and how much control they have over it--this is why Monero succeeds: not a particular market, but a particular person.  IMO

[rpietila]

Happy 3-week "anniversary" of the Announcement!

XMR price is up +126% in 3 weeks.

[BitcoinIsLiberty]

Looks interesting:

https://xmr.to/

[EvanMon]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

I disagree with you here. Even if you don't care about that individual transaction, is there any reason you would want to make it public? The default should be to private and not open because you never know what could happen in the future. In addition to that what if someone was strongly against Aero bars and decided to block transactions from people that have bought them? Given a long enough timeline an open ledger coin will become less and less fungible IMO. If services can be created around blacklisting coins they will be and most likely already are.

Below is a link to an interesting Ted talk regrading privacy and a link to a discussion regarding a company that is working to deanonymize Bitcoin.

http://www.ted.com/talks/glenn_greenwald_why_privacy_matters?language=en

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2yvy6b/a_regulatory_compliance_service_is_sybil/

[Hueristic]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

Perhaps in the future, when/if monero's market cap is significantly higher and more liquid, it could be an easy way for lottery winners to hide their assets, at least the ones who are/want to be anonymous. Lottery winners probably don't have the prowess, knowledge or network to effectively hide their winnings, and monero might offer a surprisingly easy way to do so. We've all heard of stories where lottery winners receive thousands of letters begging them for money, distant relatives who's great-great-great-great parents were cousins and "friends" they've met once at a coffee shop all come out to pester them with business opportunities and so on. They certainly have an incentive to use monero.

So what I'm trying to say is, I'm not even sure monero needs services, at least not the same services that are trying to make bitcoin mainstream, because I don't think monero's place is to function as a currency but as a store of value.

Really? Sorry for the rhetoricals, but do you want you health insurance to make statistics on your chocolate bar consumption? Do you want your boss to know when you stop buying prophylactics, or what you're buying at the pharmacy? Do you want merchants knowing your willingness to pay a certain price compared to other customers? Do you want to be censored/excluded/persecuted because you supported the democrats (insert any other political fraction) or wikileaks? Would you like for your customers to see the price you pay for the goods you sell them (and where you buy them)? Would you like that people can see you're visiting the psychiatrist - and which medicine he/she prescribed because of price correlation? Would the local diner like to see that all customers can see that some of the regulars get discounts? Do you want people (thieves e.g.) to see not just that you go to the movies - but when you go to the movies (so you are out of home), or that you are paying for things overseas (i.e. you are away on holiday).

The examples are endless in my opinion.

Very well said!

...

I don't want anyone to know anything about my finances without my consent. I guess other people don't feel strongly about that yet. Otherwise, XMR would be #2. I hate to wish for bad things to happen, but perhaps it will take a privacy/fungibility-disaster for people to finally wake up. Someone will be arrested by the police because of taint or targeted for theft or kidnapping after they reveal a high balance. Something will happen that will be big in the media and they will be forced to confront the issue.

Those that don't understand this and that the continuing data collection of every part of an individuals life is threatening to them just do not grasp the concept, or are part of the problem and profiting from it.

[pa]

Looks interesting:

https://xmr.to/

Yes, it works well. I used it to donate to freeross.org.

[futureofbitcoin]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

I disagree with you here. Even if you don't care about that individual transaction, is there any reason you would want to make it public? The default should be to private and not open because you never know what could happen in the future. In addition to that what if someone was strongly against Aero bars and decided to block transactions from people that have bought them? Given a long enough timeline an open ledger coin will become less and less fungible IMO. If services can be created around blacklisting coins they will be and most likely already are.

I am not saying that I'd want to make my transactions public. Rather, there isn't enough incentive to switch to monero JUST because you can keep such trivial transactions private. It's not a big enough motivation for most people.

@^
Of course I admit I have things I never want other people to find out about me. In fact, in comparison with the world (not the crypto community) I believe I lean towards the side that values privacy. That said, if in the future there is technology that can completely eliminate crimes before they are committed, because everything about the criminal's mindset is known, and that a computer can analyze exactly what I want, for example, what movie would interest me the most at that particular time, instead of having me search google for recommendations, read dozens of them then end up getting "tricked" by a misleading review/rec and wasting my time on mediocre movies.

I can certainly see benefits in having info collected.

[pa]

I don't see monero being needed in day-to-day services. I really couldn't care less if that Aero bar I bought was anonymous or not. I think monero's niche is in *cough* blackmarket *cough* (quite unfortunately), but also in some large items that might garner public/friends, relatives and neighbour's interest. For example, buying/selling a house. It is also likely to be used as a store of value, since it is convenient in that it hides your net worth. I think this is where monero is stronger than bitcoin.

I disagree with you here. Even if you don't care about that individual transaction, is there any reason you would want to make it public? The default should be to private and not open because you never know what could happen in the future. In addition to that what if someone was strongly against Aero bars and decided to block transactions from people that have bought them? Given a long enough timeline an open ledger coin will become less and less fungible IMO. If services can be created around blacklisting coins they will be and most likely already are.

I am not saying that I'd want to make my transactions public. Rather, there isn't enough incentive to switch to monero JUST because you can keep such trivial transactions private. It's not a big enough motivation for most people.

@^
Of course I admit I have things I never want other people to find out about me. In fact, in comparison with the world (not the crypto community) I believe I lean towards the side that values privacy. That said, if in the future there is technology that can completely eliminate crimes before they are committed, because everything about the criminal's mindset is known, and that a computer can analyze exactly what I want, for example, what movie would interest me the most at that particular time, instead of having me search google for recommendations, read dozens of them then end up getting "tricked" by a misleading review/rec and wasting my time on mediocre movies.

I can certainly see benefits in having info collected.

Once wearable computing takes off, with augmented reality and near-perfect real-time facial recognition, cross-referenced with an analysis of all of your web surfing habits and financial transactions, I suspect you'll change your mind.