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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3312652 times)
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hodlmybtc
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March 13, 2015, 09:16:37 PM
 #3441

The last upward move had a 24 hour period, with over 200,000 XMR in volume. 4000 XMR is nothing. By the way DRK/XBT has just hit 0.01 on Bitfinex. All I can say is that if you are short XMR in any way ignore DRK at you peril. I do not normally focus so much on another coin, but the situation in DRK is such that it can easily set off a buying panic in XMR.  

Yes I know 4000 XMR is nothing, just had Wisdom open only because Polo lags a shit ton since recently and the max depth I could see was ~4000 XMR.

The big DRK holders buy up even more and keep the price up just to keep it up.

It's definately not good for the distribution of the coin and along with the recent uncertainty about the name change a lot of holders probably either already sold or will be selling when the buywalls fall.

I guess a bit of the run up to 0.00283 was because of this and we will see if it continues to increase the demand for XMR the coming week.
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March 13, 2015, 09:38:35 PM
 #3442

drk is extrem cheap right now, dont miss this chance

blacky90, please do not post on this thread again
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March 13, 2015, 10:18:24 PM
 #3443

...
Yes I know 4000 XMR is nothing, just had Wisdom open only because Polo lags a shit ton since recently and the max depth I could see was ~4000 XMR....

I guess a bit of the run up to 0.00283 was because of this and we will see if it continues to increase the demand for XMR the coming week.

I had no trouble on polo but have heard this twice recently. Have you tried a different browser or added any new plugins? Try disabling ll your plugin/addons and see if that helps. Especially Flash/Shockwave. that causes all kinds of slow downs not to mention the security holes that come with it. Polo was zipping along fine the last few days I was watching. Funny I haven't watched the price in months and just happened to start watching right before the big push. Nice Timing. Smiley That was alot of fun to watch.

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hodlmybtc
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March 13, 2015, 11:24:36 PM
 #3444

...
Yes I know 4000 XMR is nothing, just had Wisdom open only because Polo lags a shit ton since recently and the max depth I could see was ~4000 XMR....

I guess a bit of the run up to 0.00283 was because of this and we will see if it continues to increase the demand for XMR the coming week.

I had no trouble on polo but have heard this twice recently. Have you tried a different browser or added any new plugins? Try disabling ll your plugin/addons and see if that helps. Especially Flash/Shockwave. that causes all kinds of slow downs not to mention the security holes that come with it. Polo was zipping along fine the last few days I was watching. Funny I haven't watched the price in months and just happened to start watching right before the big push. Nice Timing. Smiley That was alot of fun to watch.

Thanks, after I disabled Flash it seems to be a LOT smoother!

Below a visual representation of the whale(s) artificially keeping DRK above 0.01 using the OBV (On Balance Volume) indicator on the 12h charts of Cryptsy and Bitfinex

Bitfinex


Cryptsy


On Bitfinex the OBV levels are even lower than at the low of 0.005488, on Cryptsy the OBV levels are the same as around the ~0.007 levels

So a LOT of coins have been dumped into these buy orders and is still going on, distributing the coins even more in the hands of one or a few big players.

I won't even talk about the instamine because that has been discussed a gazillion times already.

I don't know how many of these sellers will buy Monero though, but I guess definately a good %, they bought into DRK for a reason right?
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March 14, 2015, 01:09:14 AM
 #3445

There is little doubt that there is a concerted effort by one or a small number of DRK whales to support the price at 0.01. The question that comes to mind is why? The support for DRK is actually in the 0.005 to 0.006 range. This is apparent from the charts, particularly the daily chart. So the question then becomes will DRK get hurt badly if it drops to 0.005 - 0.006 where it has been for over three months? A drop to this range world put DRK at about a 7-8 Million USD capitalization. It is here where XMR, and in particular the emission rate of XMR, comes into the picture. If XMR were to reach a level of say twice its current price, say 0.0044, this would put the capitalization of XMR above 8 million USD and more importantly above that of DRK effectively negating the one advantage that DRK currently has over XMR, namely the first mover advantage. There are many scenarios where this can happen particularly if DRK were to continue on its bear market.

My take is that a crossover between the capitalizations of DRK and XMR would likely accelerate the drop of DRK and the rise of XMR and this is the fear of many a DRK holder that leads them to attempt to support DRK at 0.01. This should also be of concern to a anyone looking at acquiring a significant position in XMR. The situation is very different from last summer because of the XMR emission.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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March 14, 2015, 02:16:04 AM
 #3446

...
I just disagree with you in one point: Monero already surpassed the first mover on anonymous market, it was Bytecoin, I don't and won't ever consider DRK/DASH an anonymous crypto.

I do not buy the argument that Bytecoin existed when DRK was launched in January 2014. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740112.0. While it is very legitimate to question that actual effectiveness of DRK's anonymity it fair to say that it is perceived, to a significant degree, in marketplace to be an "anonymous" coin.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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March 14, 2015, 02:19:57 AM
 #3447

...
I just disagree with you in one point: Monero already surpassed the first mover on anonymous market, it was Bytecoin, I don't and won't ever consider DRK/DASH an anonymous crypto.

I do not buy the argument that Bytecoin existed when DRK was launched in January 2014.

I don't really know the history but how much of DRK's functionality was present when it launched in January 2014?

Bytecoin was probably in development in January 2014 but not finished (even to the extent they ever finished it, which they didn't, but at least the got the core ring sig+stealth functions working).
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March 14, 2015, 02:21:51 AM
 #3448

...
I just disagree with you in one point: Monero already surpassed the first mover on anonymous market, it was Bytecoin, I don't and won't ever consider DRK/DASH an anonymous crypto.

I do not buy the argument that Bytecoin existed when DRK was launched in January 2014. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740112.0. While it is very legitimate to question that actual effectiveness of DRK's anonymity it fair to say that it is perceived, to a significant degree, in marketplace to be an "anonymous" coin.

Not saying you are wrong, but I see things diferently, for me DRK is in the profitable market of scams, and to wait for any considerable ammount of BTC to flow from it to XMR is in vain, as most people really interested in privacy are already in Monero.

I think there is some merit to what you are saying. Many of the DRK whales will never buy XMR because it doesn't provide what they want (a PoS coin where they can control the supply and pump EDIT: see below), but I also get the feeling there are many small members of the DRK community who really do want a private coin. We should not dismiss their existence or alienate them.

EDIT: and also transfer wealth from smaller holders to themselves, since unlike most other PoS coins, the minimum holding required to stake is 1000 DRK = 3000 USD. If you have less DRK than that, your holdings are being inflated away to the benefit of the bigger holders.

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March 14, 2015, 02:31:51 AM
 #3449

Darkcoin is easy to pump and dump, simply put. For each Masternode that's made, theres 1,000 drk taken from the markets. That takes away liquidity and makes it much easier to pump/dump the price with decent buys/sells. It goes against entirely what a currency is, even Bitcoin has issues with volatility, but Darkcoin takes it to the extreme via it's instamine and masternode concept(Which again means it's just an "investment" and not a currency). Most people involved with Darkcoin don't take it as a serious currency with longterm values(Because it has none;instamine, masternodes, bitcoin codebase), it's just a pump/dump game.

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March 14, 2015, 02:38:48 AM
 #3450

it's just a pump/dump game.

if it would be only a pump and dump game i could accept it (not like it though).

but IMHO they are deceiving people by making claims.
eg
 - anonymity
 - latest claim by eduffield "i have solved the blocksize problem with Masternodes"

and what still irritates me the most is that the drk-community accepts that eduffield has a privatekey which allows him to make settings (like enforcing on/off) on the fly (and the only argument i heard from drklers was: its OSS, you can just remove it.. WTF?Huh?)

and i still see no other "endgame" for them other to go full pos. only 20% for the blockreward(+fees) are for the miners. the rest is for running a node with 1000DRK colleteral (=Masternode) - who do they think will secure their network? and why 80% reward  for hosting a node?

sorry for the rant Wink

XMR || Monero || monerodice.net || xmr.to || mymonero.com || openalias.org || you think bitcoin is fungible? watch this
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March 14, 2015, 02:52:10 AM
 #3451

So I just lost a bunch of monero in the cryptocoins-dice.com website. It was doing well in terms of having a good APR being apart of the house and taking a cut of the houses' edge, but then today the entire website up and vanished. There was at a bare minimum of 50,000 XMR there from investors funds (plus whatever gamblers kept there) that the owner ran off with. He may have been selling them over the past few days before he ran off which could explain the recent selling activity on Poloneix.

We can either expect a dump incoming soon or a price increase soon depending on when he will dump his XMR or if he has already dumped his xmr. That is my speculation anyways.

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March 14, 2015, 03:02:11 AM
 #3452

So I just lost a bunch of monero in the cryptocoins-dice.com website. It was doing well in terms of having a good APR being apart of the house and taking a cut of the houses' edge, but then today the entire website up and vanished. There was at a bare minimum of 50,000 XMR there from investors funds (plus whatever gamblers kept there) that the owner ran off with. He may have been selling them over the past few days before he ran off which could explain the recent selling activity on Poloneix.

We can either expect a dump incoming soon or a price increase soon depending on when he will dump his XMR or if he has already dumped his xmr. That is my speculation anyways.

It is disappointing news. In the beginning I had a lot invested there but I got scared and withdrew all. My faith in the guy was rattled when he supported Ripple, among other reasons (I did not like when leverage was installed).

edit: sorry to hear of your loss. bobbax, do the right thing and restore the website!  Angry

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March 14, 2015, 03:13:08 AM
 #3453

So I just lost a bunch of monero in the cryptocoins-dice.com website. It was doing well in terms of having a good APR being apart of the house and taking a cut of the houses' edge, but then today the entire website up and vanished. There was at a bare minimum of 50,000 XMR there from investors funds (plus whatever gamblers kept there) that the owner ran off with. He may have been selling them over the past few days before he ran off which could explain the recent selling activity on Poloneix.

We can either expect a dump incoming soon or a price increase soon depending on when he will dump his XMR or if he has already dumped his xmr. That is my speculation anyways.

It is disappointing news. In the beginning I had a lot invested there but I got scared and withdrew all. My faith in the guy was rattled when he supported Ripple, among other reasons (I did not like when leverage was installed).

edit: sorry to hear of your loss bobbax do the right thing and restore the website!  Angry

He wont return anything.  He set this up to be a scam from day one opening the site up with a brand new noob BCT account.

I have a thread going about this scam, if you have an info please post.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=988226.msg10765725#msg10765725

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March 14, 2015, 04:08:03 AM
 #3454

So I just lost a bunch of monero in the cryptocoins-dice.com website. It was doing well in terms of having a good APR being apart of the house and taking a cut of the houses' edge, but then today the entire website up and vanished. There was at a bare minimum of 50,000 XMR there from investors funds (plus whatever gamblers kept there) that the owner ran off with. He may have been selling them over the past few days before he ran off which could explain the recent selling activity on Poloneix.

We can either expect a dump incoming soon or a price increase soon depending on when he will dump his XMR or if he has already dumped his xmr. That is my speculation anyways.

Wow, what a shame, what can I say other than sorry. I know a lot of people like to play dice and with this development I am extremely tempted to set up a dice site myself. At least that way customers know that the admin is legit and not going to run off with funds. Excuse the language but FUCKERS. If you're reading this you are a coward and I hope karma comes and bites you in the ass.
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March 14, 2015, 05:47:33 AM
 #3455

I would not be surprised if we see some action in the market. Here is what I see:
1) A falling wedge in the hourly XMR/XBT chart
2) DRK being propped up by a series of walls at 0.01. A fair amount of these walls are hidden and are being gradually eaten.
Given the negative correlation between XMR/XBT and DRK/XBT I see a significant chance of an upward breakout in XMR/XBT combined with a crash in DRK/XBT. I may be completely wrong of course.

Edit: I find that analyzing DRK at the same time as XMR does provide additional insight given that I find a significant negative correlation between the price of DRK and XMR.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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March 14, 2015, 06:10:35 AM
 #3456

that's why I never gamble with crypto Sad it's more fun go to a cassino anyway.

I wasn't even gambling, I had my monero setup there as an investment in the house funds, which overtime should grow even if it sustains small short term losses. I would create a gambling site myself if it didn't have so many legal implications within the USA

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March 14, 2015, 07:39:54 AM
Last edit: March 14, 2015, 07:54:34 AM by Shrikez
 #3457

that's why I never gamble with crypto Sad it's more fun go to a cassino anyway.

I wasn't even gambling, I had my monero setup there as an investment in the house funds, which overtime should grow even if it sustains small short term losses. I would create a gambling site myself if it didn't have so many legal implications within the USA

Oh great. There go 1500 XMR of mine, as well. That's great news to wake up to.

Fucking sleazebag scammer, may Karma take a big bloody bite out of his ass.

Sorry for OT.

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March 14, 2015, 09:13:39 AM
 #3458

So I just lost a bunch of monero in the cryptocoins-dice.com website. It was doing well in terms of having a good APR being apart of the house and taking a cut of the houses' edge, but then today the entire website up and vanished. There was at a bare minimum of 50,000 XMR there from investors funds (plus whatever gamblers kept there) that the owner ran off with. He may have been selling them over the past few days before he ran off which could explain the recent selling activity on Poloneix.

We can either expect a dump incoming soon or a price increase soon depending on when he will dump his XMR or if he has already dumped his xmr. That is my speculation anyways.
50k XMR that's worth like 105 BTC at current price. That's really bad for the XMR. Is it possible to track down the amount of XMR scammer holds and inform Poloniex about it and get his account frozen?
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March 14, 2015, 09:16:46 AM
 #3459

So I just lost a bunch of monero in the cryptocoins-dice.com website. It was doing well in terms of having a good APR being apart of the house and taking a cut of the houses' edge, but then today the entire website up and vanished. There was at a bare minimum of 50,000 XMR there from investors funds (plus whatever gamblers kept there) that the owner ran off with. He may have been selling them over the past few days before he ran off which could explain the recent selling activity on Poloneix.

We can either expect a dump incoming soon or a price increase soon depending on when he will dump his XMR or if he has already dumped his xmr. That is my speculation anyways.
50k XMR that's worth like 105 BTC at current price. That's really bad for the XMR. Is it possible to track down the amount of XMR scammer holds and inform Poloniex about it and get his account frozen?

That will be impossible. Which is a good thing for XMR. Probably already dumped anyway.

Pulling this scam for only a little over 100 BTC is such a joke.

I think Monero (XMR) is very interesting.
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
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March 14, 2015, 09:54:23 AM
 #3460

This scammer's dump is going to look as foolish as the dump of the guy who made the video.

Year 2021
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